game write up for tonight here in a bit!
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Comment -
RECAPPING THE SEASON WIN TOTALS:
MLB 2021 Season Long Win Totals/Division Winners/Props ETC:
Win Totals:
Astros Over 86.5 (-112) (to win 5u)✅ +5u
Cubs under 79.5 Wins -112 (to win 1u)✅ +1u
Orioles Under 64.5 Wins -115 (to win 4u)✅ +4u
Pirates Over 58.5 Wins +100 (to win 4u)✅ +4u
White Sox under 91.5 wins -112 (to win 1u)❌ -1.12u
Giants over 73.5 wins -110 (to win 1u)✅ +1u
Mets Over 89.5 Wins -130 (to win 1u)❌ -1.3u
Phillies Under 81.5 Wins -112 (to win 1u)❌ -1.12u
Red Sox over 80.5 -112 (to win 1u)✅ +1u
Rockies Under 40% or 64.5 wins (+102) (risk 4u)❌ -4u
Rangers Under 43.5% or 70.5 wins -130 (to win 3u)✅ +3u
Nationals Over 51.5% or 87.5 wins -108 (to win 4u)❌ -4.32u
To make playoffs:
Yes- Houston Astros -112 (to win 3u)✅ +3u
Divison Winners:
Houston Astros +150 AL West (risk 3u)✅ +4.5u
Brewers +400 (risk 1u)✅ +4u
Mets +155 (risk 1u)❌
Royals +4800 rogue number with local (would suggest taking some at 40/1 or better) (risk 0.5u)❌
FINAL SEASON TALLY:
MLB Season 203-185 +5.658u✅
Props season record 4-1 +2.771u✅
season props/win totals:10-7 +17.14u✅✅✅✅
Grand total: +29.889u✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅Comment -
Red Sox vs Yankees Preview:
October baseball is here. And what better way to start it than a good old one game playoff between one of the rivalries in sports! So lets start with Gerrit Cole bc this is tricky. Gerrit Cole supports some very solid numbers vs the Red Sox hitters tonight:
Schwaber 3 for 17 6ks
Hernandez 5 for 11 (2 doubles and a homer)
Devers 4 for 19 8ks
Bogarts 5 for 24 7ks
Verdugo 4 for 14 5ks
Renfroe 4 for 20 6ks
Plawecki 1 for 3
Dalbec 0 for 4 2ks
Arroyo 1 for 2
Outside of Hernandez and Verdugo this lineup just hasnt been able to crack Cole up to this point. Combine that with Cole going 7-2 with 94ks and only 43 hits allowed in 68 innings pitched in the Postseason since 2018. Cole also actually has a better xERA and a better xfip than his actual numbers..meaning despite how good Cole's numbers have been hes actually been a little unlucky. Combine all these stats w/ Cole's ability to strikeout batters and escape jams with the lineup advantage and the bullpen advantage the Yankees look to be in a very good spot tonight on the surface. However, we do have some alarming concerns with Cole. He is just 1-2 this year at Fenway allowing 11 earned runs in 19 innings. Cole also can have trouble with giving up the homerun ball as we have seen in the past and that could play a factor tonight in hitter friendly Fenway. Cole also has been pretty awful lately allowing 15 runs and 24 hits in his last 17 innings pitched.
Lets look at Evoldi vs Yankees hitters:
Rizzo 5 for 9 (3 doubles)
Judge 8 for 20 (2 doubles and homer)
Stanton 7 for 27
Gallo 1 for 7
Torres 7 for 29
Gardner 5 for 28
Urshella 4 for 15
Higa 2 for 3
Velaz 0 for 2
So not near as good as Cole but not awful once we get past the top of the order. Look for some signs if Evoldi can get Rizzo and Judge out at the top that will be a very good sign for him going forward. But one thing that is scary is Yankees have really hit the fastball well this year and thats a pitch Evoldi relies on fully throwing it at above 42% of the time. It will be interesting to see if Evoldi will try to mix in more curveballs and sliders tonight bc of how successful the yankees have been vs the fastball. Cora is a very solid coach in terms of strategy and i thing we will see that come into play tonight. He is playing with a deck stacked slightly against him tonight but he will have the crowd and is the better manager (plus who knows if he has cameras to steal the signs set up). Joking obviously (well kinda).
Umpire behind the dish tonight is Mark Carlson: he supports a 17-9 record for the home team this year and a 14-11 record towards the Over. Games where he has called the balls and strikes have averaged 9.38 runs this year.
Coles recent form and struggles this year @ Fenway combined with how the Yankees hit the fastball + the fact that Carlson is behind the dish my strongest play tonight is the over 8 runs -105.
Postseason play #1:
Yankees/Red Sox over 8 (-105) (1u)
Comment -
Adding some to over 7.5 (-116) (0.5u)
Attacking some props for much smaller amounts.
Cole over 4.5 hits allowed (-120) (0.3u)
Eovaldi over 4.5 hits allowed (-125) (0.3u)
verdugo under 0.5 total bases (+150) (0.3u)
Yankees team total over 4 runs (-105) (0.3u)
nothing more. Enjoy the game!Comment -
Postseason play #1:
Yankees/Red Sox over 8 (-105) (1u) PUSH
over 7.5 (-116) (0.5u) ✅ +0.5u
Cole over 4.5 hits allowed (-120) (0.3u)❌ -0.36u
Eovaldi over 4.5 hits allowed (-125) (0.3u)❌ -0.38u
verdugo under 0.5 total bases (+150) (0.3u)❌ -0.3u
Yankees team total over 4 runs (-105) (0.3u)❌ -0.31u
MLB Playoff record: 1-0 +0.5u✅
Props record: 0-4 -1.35u❌Comment -
10/6 Postseason baseball:
Scherzer really incredible numbers vs cards hitters tonight.
Edman 4 for 9 (1hr)
Goldy 5 for 32 (16ks)
ONeil 0 for 3 (2ks)
Arenado 2 for 10 5ks
Carleson 0 for 7 4ks
Molina 1 for 17 4ks
sosa 1 for 3
Bader 2 for 10 4ks
Basically awful outside of Edman. Not to mention Scherzer has loved Dodger stadium this year 37 innings/9 Earned Runs/45ks. Its an uphill battle for the Cardinals tonight. But if there was a team to beat the Dodgers it would be the Cardinals considering how red hot they have been. And much like Cole last night. Scherzer has been leaking a little oil (not as bad as Cole) his last couple games after his insane run. That being said Scherzer is as competitive as they come in terms of fire and energy and i think we get the good Scherzer tonight.
Umpire Joe West - Games this years with him behind the dish averaged 8.84 runs/ Totals went 15-14 towards the over this year/ home team 18-13. I don't take into account much of these trends but rather gravitate towards the 20.2 k % and the 8.5 BB%.
Wainwright vs the dodger lineup:
Betts 2 for 4
Seagar 2 for 7
Trea Turner 5 for 14
J Turner 3 for 9
Will Smith 0 for 3
Pollock 3 for 8
Beaty --
Bellinger 1 for 8
One through 4 have really done a nice job vs Wainwright in the past along with AJ Pollock. Wainwright stats at Dodger stadium 37 innings/18 earned runs/27ks. Wainwright is super competitive and will be comfortable in this spot though which should help him and the Dodgers tonight.
So i like the Dodgers tonight but in terms of betting this game i think the price just isn't good enough to bet them. I lean towards the over but thats mainly because of the Dodgers hitter past history vs Wainwright and the chances to score against the bullpens. Just a little tip for anyone that is debating playing over im seeing 7.5 and 7s out there. If you want to know which line is better i have the equivalent lines of over 7.5 at +107 and Over 7 -128. taking the over 7.5 is a better bet mathematically but you have to stomach losing if it lands 7 rather than pushing.
So basically the overs of Over 7.5 +107 and over 7 at -120 are equal lines. okay enough nerd talk.
The line shows me some value on the cardinals tonight but with all the info i just explained im not jumping on them bc i like the dodgers. So instead of sitting this one out i am attacking this game in a different way. I took the Dodgers to score the first run at -129 for (0.8u). if that bet loses the Cardinals will have the lead and we should get a decent price with the dodger live. If the dodgers score the first run i will sit on it and enjoy the rest of the game.
Plays for the game:
Dodgers to score the first run -129 (0.8u) [if this bet loses will likely get in live on dodgers]
Props:
O'Neiil +110 to have more hits, runs, RBIs than Bellinger (0.5u)
best of luck!Comment -
Line is now getting out of control. A lot of Value on the cardinals at this point. I almost want to bite but already locked in dodgers to score first. Also shadow factor kept me off the over along with just how good these two arms have been.
as for the ONeiil prop. He’s higher in the lineup which could translate to an extra at bat and also more likely to drive in runs. And Bellinger hitting 8th could be walked in certain situations taking away opportunities. ONeiil at +110 in the prop above has plenty of value!
alright enough rambling enjoy the game. I’ll be tweeting as always throughout the game!Comment -
Dodgers live -137 (1u)Comment -
Cant believe MLB sending out Joe West to umpire, let alone be behind the plate.
He flat out sucks. I know he is retiring but this a f#cking disgrace.
They might as well have Angel Hernandez and CB Bucknor out there as well.Comment -
Dodgers to score first (0.8u) ❌ -1.03u
dodgers live -137 (1u) ✅ +1u
props:
oneiil more h,r,rbi than Bellinger❌ (0.5u) -0.5u
MLB Playoff record: 2-1 +0.47u✅
Props record: 0-5 -1.85u❌Comment -
Sitting out the white Sox/Astros gameComment -
I lied
whiye Sox / stros live under 6.5 (-115! (0.7u)Comment -
whiye Sox / stros live under 6.5 (-115! (0.7u)❌ -.805u
MLB Playoff record: 2-2 -0.335u❌
Props record: 0-5 -1.85u❌Comment -
sitting out the rays/red sox game as well did play these:
Franco more total bases than Schwarber -130 (0.7u)
Franco 1st homer +1300 (0.1u)
Franco to homer in the Game +500 (0.3u)
Franco to hit 2 or more homers +3200 (0.1u)Comment -
Franco more total bases than Schwarber -130 (0.7u)✅ +0.7u
Franco 1st homer +1300 (0.1u)❌
Franco to homer in the Game +500 (0.3u)❌
Franco to hit 2 or more homers +3200 (0.1u)❌
-0.5u franco homer props (counting the homer props as 1 on the record)
MLB Playoff record: 2-2 -0.335u❌
Props record: 1-6 -1.65u❌Comment -
not time for write ups today with baseball tennis and football all weekend + hockey win total capping.
10/8:
White Sox +103 (1u)
Rays -138 (1u)
Red Sox/Rays Under 4 (-120) DK (1u)
Braves +143 (1u)
Props:
giolito Under 5ks +110 (0.7u)
Valdez Under 5ks -115 (0.5u)
Burnes under 8.5ks (-135) (1u)
Luis Robert over 0.5 homeruns +477 (0.2u)
Luis Robert first Homer +900 (0.1u)
kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Homeruns +450 (0.2u)
kyle Tucker first homer +1000 (0.1u)
Will add some here after a while.Comment -
Got an overly mean and nasty DM after the first inning bc the guy claimed he tailed on Gio under 5ks. Giolito went on to finish with 4ks. So the bet cashed. Still waiting on my apology DM. Lol. BUT PLEASE IF YOUR FOLLOWING ALONG BET WITHIN YOUR MEANS. You have to be able to with stand losing streaks and have the emotional capability of not chasing or losing your head.Comment -
PROP ADD:
Rays- Baz over 5ks (-105) (1u)Comment -
10/9
Braves +107 (1u)
Dodgers -114 (1u)Comment -
Didn’t play anything today. Just didn’t have time to properly look at it.Comment -
10/11:
early: Braves -108 (1u)Comment -
10/8:
White Sox +103 (1u)❌
Rays -138 (1u)❌
Red Sox/Rays Under 4 (-120) DK (1u)❌
Braves +143 (1u)❌
Props:
giolito Under 5ks +110 (0.7u)✅
Valdez Under 5ks -115 (0.5u)❌
Burnes under 8.5ks (-135) (1u)✅
Luis Robert over 0.5 homeruns +477 (0.2u)❌
Luis Robert first Homer +900 (0.1u)❌
kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Homeruns +450 (0.2u)✅
kyle Tucker first homer +1000 (0.1u)✅
Rays- Baz over 5ks (-105) (1u)❌
10/9
Braves +107 (1u)✅
Dodgers -114 (1u)✅
MLB Playoff record: 4-6 -2.915u❌
Props record: 5-10 +0.145u✅Comment -
10/11 full card:
Braves -108 (1u)
Rays -102 (1u)
Series Add:
Rays series +240 (1u)
Props for 10/11:
Franco to Homer +700 (0.3u)
Franco over 1.5 Homers +4400 (0.1u)
Franco first Homer +1600 (0.2u)
Lowe to homer +500 (0.3u)
Lowe First Homer +1200 (0.1u)Comment -
couple props adds:
Lowe -115 More hs,Rs,RBis than Renfroe (1u)
Lowe +131 More total bases than Devers (0.5u)
Luplow +190 More total bases than Verdugo (0.5u)Comment -
10/11 full card:
Braves -108 (1u)✅
Rays -102 (1u)❌
Series Add:
Rays series +240 (1u)❌
Props for 10/11:
Franco to Homer +700 (0.3u)✅
Franco over 1.5 Homers +4400 (0.1u)❌
Franco first Homer +1600 (0.2u)❌
Lowe to homer +500 (0.3u)❌
Lowe First Homer +1200 (0.1u)❌
Lowe -115 More hs,Rs,RBis than Renfroe (1u)❌
Lowe +131 More total bases than Devers (0.5u)❌
Luplow +190 More total bases than Verdugo (0.5u) PUSH
MLB Playoff record: 5-8 -3.935u❌
Props record: -0.105u❌Comment -
10/14
Dodgers Giants elimination game tonight! Should be fun one! Dodgers opening with Knebel. Giants will roll with Webb who was dominant against them last time out. Webb spun a gem last game as the Dodgers struck out 10 times all via the slider and change up. It will be interesting to see if the dodgers can make the adjustment and lay off the pitches outside the zone unlike they were able to do last time out against Webb. So watch for that early on! if they can lay off of those pitches it will be a big boost for them.
As far as the Urias being swapped out for Knebel im not sure if this has to do with some kind of injury or if Roberts simply trying to throw a monkey wrench into the Giants plans. I expect to see Urias after the opener Knebel but if Knebel doesnt put together a good start and gets in trouble early this could be a monumental error to go with the opener. Bc if the Giants get ahead we could likely see the same result as the last time Webb pitched and if they do get into the 8th with the lead look for them to go to Doval again for the double inning close. as they have done already in this series.
As for a side i am going to ride with the Giants. The Dodgers are the more talented team and their bullpen has really held up. That being said i think Webb will put together a start like the last one and Doval being fresh is key tonight. The home crowd will be rocking and Webb throws a high percentage of strikes which allows him to almost always work deep into games. The Giants have had a lot of things go right this year and that really offers us no predictive angle but i think it continues tonight. Tight game and the Giants find a way much like they have all year.
Giants -105 (1u)
Under 7 (-108) (1u)
One prop bc i think the +money is too much too pass up.
Webb Over 5.5 ks +133 (1u)Comment -
recap 10/14
Giants -105 (1u)❌
Under 7 (-108) (1u).✅
Webb Over 5.5 ks +133 (1u)✅
MLB Playoff record: 6-9 -3.985u❌
Props record: +1.225✅Comment -
ALCS game 1:
I will look to get in on the Astros live but -140 is too steep pregame
Props:
Vazquez under 1.5 hits,Runs,RBI (-110) (1u)
Vazquez under 0.5 hits +125 (1u)Comment -
Taking my shot here.
Astros +220 live (0.5u)
Astros +2.5 runs live (-130) (0.6u)Comment -
Game 1 Props:
Vazquez under 1.5 hits,Runs,RBI (-110) (1u)✅ +1u
Vazquez under 0.5 hits +125 (1u)✅ +1.25u
Astros +220 live (0.5u)✅ +1.1u
Astros +2.5 runs live (-130) (0.6u)✅ +0.6u
MLB Playoff record: 7-9 -2.285u❌
Props record: +3.475✅Comment -
10/18:
Astros +105 F5 (0.5u)
Astros +110 (0.5u)
Props:
Correa more total bases than Devers +110 (0.5u)
Correa more h's,runs,rbis than Bogaerts (+100) 0.5u
Bregman more hits than Devers (-110) (0.5u)
Altuve more total bases than Devers (-110) (0.5u)
Altuve more hits,runs,rbis than Schwarber (-115) (0.5u)
Alvarez more total bases than JD Martinez (+100) (0.5u)
Alvarez more hits than Bogaerts (-110) (0.5u)
Alvarez more hits, runs, rbi than Devers +120 (0.5u)Comment -
worst case scenario. Felt like I even faded the right guys in the Red Sox lineup but Guys I backed didn’t do a thing.
MLB Playoff record: 7-11 -3.285u❌
Props record: -0.2u❌Comment -
10/19
Braves +0.5 runs f5 (-105) (1u)
Braves +168 (0.6u)
Astros +116 (1u)Comment -
10/19
Braves +0.5 runs f5 (-105) (1u)✅
Braves +168 (0.6u)❌
Astros +116 (1u)✅
2-1 day +1.56u
MLB Playoff record: 9-12 -1.725u❌
Props record: -0.2u❌Comment
