Hotcross MLB 2019 Thread

[hotcross]

Mike, thanks. Saw you post in the NHL Series thread about fading Vegas and Pitt. I agree only 1 of those. What do you like about the Sharks chances? I could be wrong but Fleury was just resting and should be good to go. Anyway when Subban played he was not too bad, in fact he's been just as good as anything I've seen from both San Jose goalies.

It seems most all of those opening round series could go either way. I'll probably play a couple upsets, gonna be working on it tonight to finalize my opinions.

[2daBank]

Mike, thanks. Saw you post in the NHL Series thread about fading Vegas and Pitt. I agree only 1 of those. What do you like about the Sharks chances? I could be wrong but Fleury was just resting and should be good to go. Anyway when Subban played he was not too bad, in fact he's been just as good as anything I've seen from both San Jose goalies.

It seems most all of those opening round series could go either way. I'll probably play a couple upsets, gonna be working on it tonight to finalize my opinions.

I’m far from a hockey expert but have had a lot of success in playoffs simply identifying series that could go either way and basically betting them to go long. Like to play the road dog to get a win in the 1st 2, if they win game 1 then I switch, if they lose I double up gm 2. Then do same when series moves venues. Basically looking to bet it to be tied up after 4. Sometimes by that point I have a feel for a series and continue, other times I duck out at that point.

[pimike]

Mike, thanks. Saw you post in the NHL Series thread about fading Vegas and Pitt. I agree only 1 of those. What do you like about the Sharks chances? I could be wrong but Fleury was just resting and should be good to go. Anyway when Subban played he was not too bad, in fact he's been just as good as anything I've seen from both San Jose goalies.

It seems most all of those opening round series could go either way. I'll probably play a couple upsets, gonna be working on it tonight to finalize my opinions.

He is not healthy. He is still suffering from back problems and last years concussions he is tentative.

[hotcross]

Wed. April 10

SAN FRANCISCO +100 first five innings ML // 1 unit to win 1
*push if tied after first five inn.

Re-match of March 30 starting pitchers. Think the Giants are in a better spot to take advantage of the rookie lefty Margevicius, at least early in the game.

[hotcross]

^^PUSH

don't know what happened there, Giants scored bottom 5th but the run was pulled off the board. Assuming it was a challenge replay review? Anyone know, chime in.

[BigNik]

Runner was tagged at home on the replay

[hotcross]

adding ::

UNDER 5 +107 OAK@BALT first five innings // 2 units to win 2.14


Lost the Under first five in this series opener. Skipped until today, looking to get ahead on it.

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.10 = -2.00 units (0-1-1 W/L/D)
OVERALL: -6.99 units (11-14-1 W/L)

Not even close. Had reasons for the pick, but obviously was wrong. Oakland 7-3 score after 5 innings.

[hotcross]

Thurs. Apr.11

KANSAS CITY +132 ML // 3 units to win 3.96

NY METS +115 ML // 4 units to win 4.60

[hotcross]

adding ::

TORONTO +170 ML // 2 units to win 3.40

CHICAGO CUBS -120 ML // 3.60 to win 3

ARIZONA -112 ML // 3.36 units to win 3


I think these are good picks. That's why multiple units, not because chasing. At least that's what I've fooled myself into believing. Account is gonna be looking sorry if these fail to profit.

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.11 = -0.76 units (2-3 W/L)
OVERALL: -7.75 units (13-17-1 W/L)

Could have easily went 5-0 instead. What are the chances all 3 losses were by the same score 7-6, two of which the underdog pick lead the whole way until the 9th inning. I might take a brief timeout, pretty frustrating.

[hotcross]

Friday April 12

UNDER 10 -115 CHW@NYY // 2.30 units to win 2


Stick to one pick tonight

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.12 = 0 units (CANCEL TOTAL, game shortened after 6+ innings)
OVERALL: -7.75 units (13-17-1 W/L)

Found the trapdoor exit on that one! Full-game Total got canceled due to rain-shortened game. I need any lucky break.

[hotcross]

In other news, after a brutal loss yesterday with KC (top 9th had Seattle down to the last strike with a two-run lead, centerfielder muffs the catch), which was the 10th loss in a row, the Royals ambush Carrasco early and Cleveland who came in hot could only muster 1-run. KC wins by a score 8-1 to snap their 10-game losing streak (home dog closed around +145)

[hotcross]

Saturday April 13

OVER 6 +102 STL@CIN first five inn. (played in Monterrey, Mexico) // 3 units to win 3.06


Locked this one in, listed pitchers must start Wainwright vs Roark

[hotcross]

adding ::

UNDER 10 -105 CHW@NYY // 1.61 units to win 1.53

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.13 = -1.47 units (1-1 W/L)
OVERALL: -9.22 units (14-18-1 W/L)

There was strange line movements back and forth on that total in Mexico. And wouldn't you know they scored 1 run in five innings.

[hotcross]

Tuesday April 16

BOSTON -105 ML // 1.05 units to win 1

UNDER 4.5 -120 BALT@TB first five innings // 1.20 units to win 1

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.16 = -2.25 units (0-2 W/L)
OVERALL: -11.47 units (14-20-1 W/L)

Made one illogical pick, one logical, and lost 'em both. Ugh...

[hotcross]

Saturday Apr.20

UNDER 3 +150 CIN@SD first five inn. // 1 unit to win 1.50

LA ANGELS -117 ML // 2.34 units to win 2

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.20 = -3.34 units (0-2 W/L)
OVERALL: -14.81 units (14-22-1 W/L)

Sunday Apr.21

UNDER 4.5 -135 KC@NYY first five inn. // 4.05 units to win 3


All my great research while taking a break really not paying off. But I did lose both yesterday's picks by one run each, so maybe close but no cigar...? Chasing somewhat here, but also seems like a good pick in one of the early games. Let's start here today.

[hotcross]

adding ::

BOSTON +101 ML // 3.96 units to win 4

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.21 = -0.05 units (1-1 W/L)
OVERALL: -14.86 units (15-23-1 W/L)


Lost that Under pick by the hook, dumazz Royals pitcher coughs up a 3-run homer in the bottom of the 5th to the main guy in the Yankees lineup today that he had to worry the most about. I actually feel a little better about it when the Royals scored 6 runs in the top of the 8th, forcing extra innings and causing the game to go way Over the full game total of 8.

Debating right now whether to make a small play on the Indians and/or the Over in the Sunday night game.

[hotcross]

Monday Apr.22

NY METS -105 ML // 1.05 units to win 1

OVER 11 -105 WSH@COL // 1.05 units to win 1

[hotcross]

Won both yesterday for +2.00 units

Tuesday April 23

ARIZONA -105 ML // 1.05 units to win 1

MILWAUKEE +107 ML // 1 unit to win 1.07

WASHINGTON -1.5 -105 runline // 3.15 units to win 3

TEXAS +140 ML // 1 unit to win 1.40

[hotcross]

2-2 yesterday but won the biggin for net +2.00 units again.

Wed. Apr.24

COLORADO -1 +100 first five innings // 2.50 units to win 2.50

As stated in a previous post, my book offers alternative spreads for the first five innings.

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.22,23,24 = +6.50 units (5-2 W/L)
OVERALL: -8.36 units (20-25-1 W/L)


Nice start to the week, gaining back some respectability below zero

[TheLock]

Nice work, pal.

[hotcross]

Lock, thanks. I had a good read on each game of the series in Denver this week...or was it time to have luck on my side?

Seen you been rockin' in your thread to start the season.

[hotcross]

Thursday April 25

CLEVELAND +142 ML // 3.50 units to win 4.97


Sorry for the last minute post, but the odds kept getting more favorable for the road team the longer I waited.

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.25 = +4.97 units (1-0 W/L)
OVERALL: -3.39 units (21-25-1 W/L)


On a little heater, pressing the amounts as I go. Cleveland won game 1 in Houston 2-1 score, Bauer went 8 full-innings.

[hotcross]

Sunday April 28

ATLANTA -1 +108 first five innings // 3 units to win 3.24

OVER 9 +110 CHC@ARIZ // 1 unit to win 1.10

[hotcross]

adding ::

UNDER 4 +100 DET@CHW first five inn. // 2 units to win 2

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.28 = +0.10 units (2-1 W/L)
OVERALL: -3.29 units (23-26-1 W/L)


Lost the biggin' 3 unit play when Atlanta scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 1st, but then hitters took hold of the game and Colorado battled back-and-forth to end the first five innings tied 5-5 score. Braves had the bases loaded in the bottom of the 5th, didn't score there, but went on to win the full game 8-7 score, they were -165 favorite.

2 unit play won, as White Sox pitcher Reynaldo Lopez allowed no earned runs thru 6 innings, with 14 strikeouts, 3 walks, and only 2 hits. He looked really good in this start and the previous two before that, but take it with a grain of salt as those were against the Royals and Tigers again.

1 unit play won in 15 innings, was 3-3 score going to extra innings. Cubs had multiple chances in the extra frames, and it got weird a couple times. But Cubs finally scored 3 runs in the top of the 15th, and Arizona collected 2 in the bottom of the frame to end the game with a 6-5 Cubs win as -110 road favorite.

[hotcross]

Tuesday April 30

SAN DIEGO -0.5 +120 first five innings 2.50 units to win 3

OVER 11 -105 PITT@TEX // 2.10 units to win 2