Let’s get ready!!
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Checking in...I plan to post again this year.Comment -
Here are the rules for the MLB Sytem that WE will be posting.As long as you strictly follow the betting guidelines below, you will be winning almost all of your MLB bets.
In a nutshell, you will be betting that one team is going to win at least one game in either 3 or 4 game series versus an opposing team that has swept them in their most recent series. This is a bet that you will win more than 97% of the time.
Before I go into detail on how to make the bets, I will go over the money management system. There are only three bet values you should stick to: Bet A; Bet B; and Bet C.
Bet A = Your beginning bet. You can, for example, set your beginning bet to win $100 when you first start out.
Bet B = In case Bet A fails, you make bet B to make up for any loss you’ve suffered from Bet A, plus any profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your to-win Bet A was $100, your to-win Bet B can be $200.
Bet C = In case Bet B fails, you make bet C to make up for any loss you’ve suffered from Bet A plus Bet B, plus profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your to-win Bet A plus Bet B was $300, your to-win Bet C can be $400.
If you lose Bet C, you lose the bet. There may be an occasion when you place a “D” bet, but it’s extremely rare. We will talk more on that later.
However, do not be concerned, because losing a Bet C is something that will almost never happen. Here’s the betting system:
1. Check the MLB results and mark down any series where one team goes winless versus the opposing team (a sweep)
2. For the teams that were swept (winless in those series), mark the schedule for their upcoming series versus the same team that swept them previously
3. On the first day of the rematch between the two teams, as long as the team that was swept previously has an RPI value (http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi) of no less than .015 than the opposing team, AND the opposing team is not a top-2 RPI team, make a bet for the team that was swept. (Note: The RPI will be explained in greater details in a later section of this manual)
4. If you lose bet A, make bet B on the next day for the same team
5. If you lose bet B, make bet C on the next day for the same team
And keep this in mind: ALWAYS bet on the money line if the team you’re betting on is the favorite to win (shows -1.5 on the run line). ALWAYS bet on the run line (+1.5 runs) if the team you’re betting on is the underdog (shows +1.5 on the run line). You can check to see which team is the favorite or the underdog by looking at the run line in the
bet lineup. A team showing a +1.5 in the run line means they are the underdog. A team showing a -1.5 in the run line means they are the favorite.
If you are unfamiliar with betting, below is a screenshot of what you may see on BetUS
Example#1: Atlanta sweeps Florida in a 3-game series, then sweeps them again in a 2-game series. If they play a 3 game series next time, then that would qualify for a system play on Florida.
Example#2: Atlanta sweeps Florida in a 3-game series, then goes 1-1 against Florida a 2-game series. If they play a 3 game series next time, then that would not qualify for a system play.
V2.0 System UPDATE:
The update here is designed to allow you even more action during the course of the baseball season by increasing your wager on betting opportunities that have an exceptional probability of betting success.
The change to this new v2.0 system is that you want to increase your stake on the [b] level when these 2 criteria are met:
The change to this new v2.0 system is that you want to increase your stake on the [b] level when these 2 criteria are met:
1. The team you’re betting on is playing at home.
2. The [A] bet that you made resulted in your team losing by 3 or more runs.
Similarly, you want to increase your stake on the [C] level when these 2 criteria are met:
1. The team you’re betting on is playing at home.
2. The [b] bet that you made resulted in your team losing by 3 or more runs.
Here’s an example of the v2.0 system in action:
During the 2008 MLB baseball season, the Detroit Tigers played the Minnesota Twins on the road from May 2nd to May 4th and were swept in all 3 games.
On May 23rd, they began another 3-game series with the Minnesota twins, this time at home. Since the Detroit Tigers fell within the accepted .01 range of RPI disparity with the Minnesota Twins at the time, the series was good to go for betting.
Yet, on 5/23/08, Detroit lost to Minnesota again on the [A] bet by a score of 4-9. Since Detroit lost by at least 3 points at the [A] level, and since they’re playing at home, this would make the [b] bet to fall under the criteria for betting in the v2.0 MLB system.
This means that the next day, on May 24th, you should increase your wagering amount by at least two-fold. So, let’s say that you lost $150 on the [A] bet with Detroit. Instead of betting to win $250 (to attain a $100 profit for the series) as you normally would do, you can double up and bet to win $350 (to attain a $200 profit for the series).
Indeed, the Detroit Tigers came back the next day and completely annihilated Minnesota by their season-record score of 19-3!
Now, I want to note to you that you should of course still make all the bets according to the v1.0 system. However, when a situation arises that meets the criteria of the v2.0 betting system, you should then increase your wager on that betting level by at least twice or more.
V3.0 System UPDATE:
The update here is designed to allow you even more betting opportunities during the course of the baseball season by taking advantage of the unofficial plays that fall outside of the acceptable level of RPI difference between the two teams.
The addition to this new v3.0 system is that you want to make a wager for the team that previously did the sweep (NOT the team that was swept previously!) if the following 2 criteria are met:
1. The team that they swept previously came back and beat them on the very first game of their rematch series.
2. They have an RPI of at least .025 or higher than their opponent.
If your bet loses, you would go on and make a [b] bet for the same team the next day. Most of the v3.0 bets will involve betting on a 2-game series. However, in some rare cases you can also make a [C] bet if both your [A] and [b] bet lose, and the series rematch is a 4-game series allowing you an extra final game to make a [C] wager.
Remember, the same betting rules apply: Always bet on the money line if the team you’re betting on is the favorite to win. Always bet on the run line (+1.5 runs) if the team you’re betting on is the underdog. You can check to see which team is the favorite or the underdog by looking at the run line in the bet lineup. A team showing a +1.5 in the
Here’s an example of the v3.0 system in action:
During the 2008 MLB baseball season, the Boston Red Sox played the Kansas City Royals from May 19th to May 22nd and swept them in the entire series.
On August 4th, Boston played Kansas City again in a 3-game series. At this time during the season, Boston's RPI was at least .025 higher than Kansas City, making the series fall outside of the original v1.0 system's betting criteria for Kansas City. However, Kansas City ended up winning the first game of the series on August 4th.
Since Boston was the team that swept Kansas City previously, and their RPI is at least .025 higher than Kansas City, the fact that Kansas City came back and won the first game vs. Boston make the series eligible for play under the v3.0 MLB system.
Therefore, on August 5th, you would put down an [A] bet for Boston to beat Kansas City. Boston ended up winning the game. At this point you've won the betting series, and there's no need to make any more wagers for either team.
IF Boston had lost to Kansas City again on August 5th, then you would need to place a bet for Boston again on August 6th when they play Kansas City in the final game.
There are no possible [C] bets in this series.
OPTIONAL FILTERS:
These are the filters from the JM MLB System. They will be mentioned when they come into play but will not affect the posting of the plays. All series will be posted regardless of the filter. Morrison always sends out the plays and then pulls the filter out of his ass when the series loses. It will be your choice on whether or not to play the series. These are filters that were added over the course of time to eliminate losses from the record. We will not use them for the posted MLB Sweep System but just mention them because they are a part of JM's system.
- Injury filter- If the team you are betting on has an injury to their best pitcher or hitter then you should pass on the series.
- Top 3 rpi filter- If the team you are betting against is rated top 3 in the rpi then you should pass on this series.
- Worst road team filter- If the team you are betting on is a road team and in the bottom 10% of of losing road teams then you should pass on the series. Effectively he is saying the bottom 3 road teams. If they are the home team then it is okay to bet on them.
- Alternate Run Line Rule- If the team you are betting on is favored by up to -115 odds then you should buy the +1.5 alternate run line.
- (D) bet rule- If the series is a 4 game set he now says not to play the (D) bet or 4th game.
- The rpi drop- This is not a rule or a filter but Morrison has used it in the past to erase losses from his record. The rule is if a team you are betting on drops below the recommended .015 rpi during the course of the series then you should pass on the series. Vintage JM B.S. When you start a series just take note of how close the rpi is and decide for yourself whether or not to play it.
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Here are 2018's results if you ended playing in September:
MLB Sweep System 2018 FINAL RESULTS
Official Season Series: 17-0
(A) 7-10
(B) 9-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Season Series: 54-4
(A) 29-29
(B) 19-10
(C) 6-4
(D) 0-0
(OAK -7.46 units)
(LAA -14.58 units)
(TOR -15.80 units)
(BAL -12.65 units)
V2 Series: 3-0
(A) 2-1
(B) 1-0
(C) 0-0
V3 Series: 16-2
(A) 10-8
(B) 6-2
(C) 0-0
(HOU -12.95 units)
(TOR -5.94 units)Last edited by betwithdaniel; 03-05-19, 01:03 PM.Comment -
Can you please explain why there is an official record and unofficial record and why there is such a discrepancy between the two? ThanksComment -
Unofficial record is for series that did not follow the RPI value stipulation. Some seasons have more official plays, and other seasons don't. Unofficial plays allow for more action. Each unofficial series that lost last season also triggered a filter (at the bottom of the rules). Here are some other seasons you can review:
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Thanks betwithdaniel. You do a great job with this!Comment -
Here and waiting! Looking at contributing as I can!Comment -
Anyone look into the Champ/the Whale's new MLB system. Something without the RPI filter to get more bets. He doesn't provide historical backtesting so I've not subscribed. Thanks!Comment -
So, unofficial system cleared around three units last year and V3.0 was in the red?Comment -
Nice results for 2018! The official series bets are the only one's I will touch. I've played JM's picks in the past and only play the B and C bets. Its just easier to manage for me, especially after a C loss, to limit the damage somewhat.
Good luck Daniel, and to all.Comment -
I'm back on board for this year. I am starting a thread for my +1.5 system that has gone 136-10 in 2017 and 154-4 in 2018 with my paper betting I have been doing the last couple years. As I mentioned last year all losses are recouped. Regards.sbrComment -
Would you mind spankmythighs refreshing us all with how we can use your recoup strategy? I know it worked really well for you last season and I would like to try it with the MLB system this year. I am sure others would also. Many thanks. Hope your sports investing business is going well!Comment -
Good day! I just take the win/loss ratio from years past and divide by 2. With that amount of games figured out, I take the loss in units and spread it across those series to recoup. Another thing to pass along is that a series loss has never been followed by another series loss. So if you wanted to recoup in the next series, the amount would be much more but recouped immediately.
@betwithdaniel, just finishing it up. I was working on an NBA and NHL strategy over the winter which took up most of my time. Here is to a great season!sbrComment -
Hi Guys,
I have just been through the previous years results and this is what I have found.
V1 Official System plays:
2011: 29-1
2012: 27-2
2013: 27-1
2014: 25-0
2015: 27-0
2016: 42-1
2017: 33-1
2018: 17-0
I think I’m going to stick with only V1 plays this year 😁Comment -
So we no longer use the rip filterComment -
Here is the 2019 Update to the Champ MLB Betting System:
In the 2019 Update, we will no longer qualify official games based on RPI. Instead, we will use these two factors to qualify when a play is official:
-Money line odds
-World Series futures odds
The entire idea of the RPI filter in the Champ MLB Betting System is to ensure that we are only taking teams that are at least reasonably talented against their opponent. These are the ideal teams to take to avenge a recent sweep. The RPI filter was introduced nearly 10 years ago to look at a team's relative strength against their opponent.
The flaw with the RPI filter is that it takes too long to become accurate. Early in the season when teams have not yet played many games, the filter will disqualify a great majority of qualifying series.
The second flaw with the RPI filter is that even once it becomes accurate, it can still discard too many good series where the teams we're taking should still be at least as reasonably talented as their opponent. This can take away too many good opportunities for betting.
Here's a better way to tell when a tean is at least as reasonably talented against their opponent without relying on their RPI ratings:
-Look at the money line odds for the game: The team must be a favorite of at least pk (-100) odds on the money line if they're playing at home, or no worse than +130 underdogs when playing on the road. By comparing the money line odds, we can accurately tell when a team is as reasonably talented agains their opponent.
-Look at the futures odds: We can compare our team's odds to win the World Series with their opponent's. If the odds are at least similar, then we can accurately conclude that these teams are at least as similarly talented as one another. The exact criteria for official qualification based on futures odds will be released to you at a later date.Comment -
UPCOMING PLAYS
6/14 Atlanta Braves vs PhilliesComment -
Betwithdaniel! I appreciate you posting every year. Let’s all show support by giving points when you can
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Question: Do we check the RPI ratings on Jun. 14 to see if ATL is still a play or is it already confirmed right after the sweep happened yesterday?Comment -
RPI ratings are checked each day of each game. To answer your question directly, yes, we would check the RPI ratings on Jun 14 to see if ATL is an Official or Unofficial play (if the RPI difference is too large).Comment -
rebelson, If you do start another thread following the new filter requirements, please provide a link. I would be interested in finding out how it performs relative to the traditional RPI filter. Also, if he sends any clarifications on the future odds like he says he will, I would be interested in seeing what those are too. Thanks!Comment -
UPCOMING PLAYS
5/10 Miami Marlins vs Mets
6/14 Atlanta Braves vs Phillies
6/20 Cincinnati Reds vs BrewersComment -
Actually Reds vs Brewers on 6/20 does not qualify yet. If Brewers can sweep the Reds again on 5/21 & 5/22, then the 6/20 system qualifies. But if they split, then 6/20 does not qualify for the system bet.Comment -
UPCOMING PLAYS
5/10 Miami Marlins vs Mets
6/14 Atlanta Braves vs Phillies
6/24 Chicago Cubs vs BravesComment -
Awesome.Comment
