Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

[billdo75]

I decided to open a new thread to track a modified version of the chase system that I've been following in this thread. This modified variation has some concrete rules behind it:

• The opening lines I check come from Covers (covers.com/sports/mlb/mlb_lines.aspx?t=0)
• I'm playing the largest money line favorite with a better-than-even price on the run line.
• The pick cannot be less than -150 on the money line.
• If no teams qualify, skip and resume the next day.

The chase has been working out pretty well for everybody, but there's always the chance you get stuck having to lay a hefty price to keep playing. My goal in here is just to track it chasing favorable prices and see where it goes. Granted, variations will probably still pop up because of different books' movement on the run line. I'm using Bodog and they usually post their run lines at 11:30 EST, so those are the numbers I'll use.

NOTE: I'm open to suggestions as far as the -150 minimum. From the games I've played this year, the lowest money line I have recorded was -155. May 13th, Joe Crede hits a walkoff grand slam in the 13th inning in the C game to end a chase. I'd hate to lose that gem...

Picks so far:
06/11 -- A -- Atlanta(Vazquez) -1½ +125 (Loss)
06/12 -- B -- LA Angels(Palmer) -1½ +125

As always, Good Luck everyone!

[themajormt]

GL!

[Sawyer]

GL mate!

If you can hit over %40 on the long run, you can use Labouchere (Cancellation system) as well, it's more safe than martingale.

Do you know the longest losing streak?

[billdo75]

GL mate!

If you can hit over %40 on the long run, you can use Labouchere (Cancellation system) as well, it's more safe than martingale.

Do you know the longest losing streak?

For this modified version, no. I just thought about it today and I don't have any opening line history for Covers. I think I read about Labouchere in a blackjack book. Interesting. Would you reset the numbers each time a chase was completed or would you only reset once you used up all the numbers?

[billdo75]

Angels win 11-6. Because the risk amount is constantly fluctuating, I'll just use the dollars won/lost for recordkeeping. Because this is an offshoot and has no testing, I'm only trying for $5 per win, so $5 is the standard.

A plays: 0-1 L1, - $4.00
B plays: 1-0 W1, + $9.00

Overall: 1-0, + $5.00

[billdo75]

Play for 6/13/2009:

A - Chicago Cubs -1½ +125, $4.00 to win $5.00

[billdo75]

Cubs lose 0-2.

A plays: 0-2 L2, - $8.00
B plays: 1-0 W1, + $9.00

Overall: 1-0, + $5.00 ** Chasing **

[billdo75]

Play for 6/14/2009:

B - LA Angels -1½ +105, $8.57 to win $9.0

[billdo75]

Angels win 6-0.

A plays: 0-2 L2, - $8.00
B plays: 2-0 W2, + $18.00

Overall: 2-0, + $10.00

[billdo75]

Play for 6/15/2009:

No play today - no teams qualify

[billdo75]

Play for 6/16/2009:

A - Boston Red Sox -1½ +110, $4.55 to win $5.01

The play was Philadelphia, but the line moved to Even money as I was placing the wager, so I dropped down to Boston...

[billdo75]

Red Sox win 8-2.

A plays: 1-2 W1, - $2.99
B plays: 2-0 W2, + $18.00

Overall: 3-0, + $15.01

[billdo75]

Play for 6/17/2009:

A - Kansas City Royals -1½ +130, $3.84 to win $4.99

[billdo75]

After disqualifying the Yankees because of the -130 RL, there were 3 teams tied at -170 ML - Boston, KC, and Minnesota. In this case, the choice was obvious as they were +100, +130, and -105 RL, respectively. It did make me think about a tiebreaker rule, though, so here goes...


Tiebreaker Rule:

• (a) If two or more teams have the same money line, pick the team with the most + run line. (b) If two or more teams are still tied, pick the team with the highest game total. (c) If two or more teams are still tied, pick the team with the better W/L record overall. (d) If two or more teams are still tied, skip and resume the next day.

[do5000]

hi billdo,

i dont want to start trouble and have this thread explode like the other one, but just curious as to why youre using the team with the most + RL (if theres a tie)
Wouldnt a team thats the highest ML and smallest + RL be safer since that team is most favored to win and most favored to win by 2?

[billdo75]

I understand where you're coming from and I thought about that myself. My ultimate goal is to squeeze as much profit, with as little expense, as possible by playing big favorites. Playing the largest + RL team seems most in line with that goal since it requires less expense for the same amount of potential profit. That's pretty much it.

[do5000]

i see your point. i guess it can work either way.
gl no matter what, i'm interested to see how it goes.

[billdo75]

Royals lose 5-12.

A plays: 1-3 L1, - $6.83
B plays: 2-0 W2, + $18.00

Overall: 3-0, + $15.01 ** Chasing **

[do5000]

i'm guessing today is TEX

[billdo75]

Play for 6/18/2009:

B - Texas Rangers -1½ +110, $8.04 to win $8.84

[billdo75]

Rangers lose 3-5.

A plays: 1-3 L1, - $6.83
B plays: 2-1 L1, + $9.96

Overall: 3-0, + $15.01 ** Chasing **

[billdo75]

Play for 6/19/2009:

C - Colorado Rockies -1½ +120, $14.07 to win $16.88

[007Fatty]

is there a record for c plays?

[billdo75]

Nope. Just started tracking it... We'll see how it goes tonight...

[billdo75]

Rockies win 7-3.

A plays: 1-3 L1, - $6.83
B plays: 2-1 L1, + $9.96
C plays: 1-0 W1, +$16.88

Overall: 4-0, + $20.01

[billdo75]

Play for 6/20/2009:

A - Chicago Cubs -1½ +110 (-180 ML / 2nd), $4.54 to win $4.99

[billdo75]

Cubs lose 6-5.

A plays: 1-4 L2, - $11.37
B plays: 2-1 L1, + $9.96
C plays: 1-0 W1, +$16.88

Overall: 4-0, + $20.01 ** Chasing **

[billdo75]

Play for 6/21/2009:

B - Seattle Mariners -1½ +130 (-185 ML / T-1st), $7.34 to win $9.54

[billdo75]

Mariners lose 3-2.

A plays: 1-4 L2, - $11.37
B plays: 2-2 L2, + $2.62
C plays: 1-0 W1, +$16.88

Overall: 4-0, + $20.01 ** Chasing **

[billdo75]

Play for 6/22/2009:

C - Oakland Athletics -1½ +130 (-150 ML / 1st), $12.99 to win $16.89

[billdo75]

Athletics win 5-1.

A plays: 1-4 L2, - $11.37
B plays: 2-2 L2, + $2.62
C plays: 2-0 W2, +$33.77

Overall: 5-0, + $25.02

[billdo75]

Play for 6/23/2009:

A - Tampa Bay Devil Rays -1½ +115 (-160 ML / 1st), $4.35 to win $5.00

[billdo75]

Devil Rays lose 1-10.

A plays: 1-5 L3, - $15.72
B plays: 2-2 L2, + $2.62
C plays: 2-0 W2, +$33.77

Overall: 5-0, + $25.02 ** Chasing **

[billdo75]

Play for 6/24/2009:

B - Tampa Bay Devil Rays -1½ +115 (-155 ML / 2nd), $8.13 to win $9.35

[billdo75]

Devil Rays win 7-1.

A plays: 1-5 L3, - $15.72
B plays: 3-2 W1, + $11.97
C plays: 2-0 W2, + $33.77

Overall: 6-0, + $30.02