MLB - Thursday, 8/18/16

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Thursday, 8/18/16
    3 MLB Plays Thursday

    Tigers -113 (Heritage)
    Tigers -1.5 +166 (Heritage)
    Twins / Royals OVER 9 -115 (Heritage)


    YTD: 349-362-18, -5.36
  • 44 Mag
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 10-14-13
    • 34490

    #2
    Originally posted by LT Profits
    3 MLB Plays Thursday

    Tigers -113 (Heritage)
    Tigers -1.5 +166 (Heritage)
    Twins / Royals OVER 9 -115 (Heritage)


    YTD: 349-362-18, -5.36
    You figure the Red Sox are tired, huh? Plus Bucholtz sucks & Ortiz is resting. Tigers haven't hit worth a damn lately.
    Comment
    • 44 Mag
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 10-14-13
      • 34490

      #3
      Cubs
      LAD
      Miami
      Cleveland
      SF

      Cubs must be 70% plus.
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        Originally posted by 44 Mag
        Cubs
        LAD
        Miami
        Cleveland
        SF

        Cubs must be 70% plus.
        If you would have left out SF vs. deGrom, you would have been perfect.
        Comment
        • LT Profits
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-27-06
          • 90963

          #5
          60%ers:

          Cubs 72% (-257)
          Dodgers 61% (-156)
          Miami 66% (-194)
          Cleveland 64% (-178)
          Comment
          • 44 Mag
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 10-14-13
            • 34490

            #6
            Originally posted by LT Profits
            If you would have left out SF vs. deGrom, you would have been perfect.
            Some day I will get it right.
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              Originally posted by LT Profits
              If you would have left out SF vs. deGrom, you would have been perfect.
              To be fair, Giants were close at 59% (-144)
              Comment
              • 44 Mag
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 10-14-13
                • 34490

                #8
                Hey, thoughts on AZ/SD over 8.5. Couple weak pitchers going ..........
                Comment
                • GP
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 06-03-12
                  • 890

                  #9
                  LT, couple of questions for you.

                  Does your model simulate each game many times?

                  Does your model ever expect double-digit Team Totals like we have seen lately(for example yesterday Min, Cws, Ari, Was, Col all scored 10 or more)?
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #10
                    Originally posted by 44 Mag
                    Hey, thoughts on AZ/SD over 8.5. Couple weak pitchers going ..........
                    And yet model still gets just 7.4

                    Primarily due to bad offensive H/A ratings and ballpark factors
                    Comment
                    • LT Profits
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-27-06
                      • 90963

                      #11
                      Originally posted by GP
                      LT, couple of questions for you.

                      Does your model simulate each game many times?

                      Does your model ever expect double-digit Team Totals like we have seen lately?
                      No just once based on default lineups, which I could change any time to produce new result.

                      If you mean double-digit GAME totals, then sure I have seen them quite a bit, i.e., just about every game in Colorado. If you literally mean TEAM totals, then NEVER, as it should be.
                      Comment
                      • Seaweed
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 01-19-12
                        • 26316

                        #12
                        LT all those bets and youre -???

                        Time to change system
                        Comment
                        • 44 Mag
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 10-14-13
                          • 34490

                          #13
                          Originally posted by LT Profits
                          And yet model still gets just 7.4

                          Primarily due to bad offensive H/A ratings and ballpark factors
                          Thanks .
                          Comment
                          • LT Profits
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-27-06
                            • 90963

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Seaweed
                            LT all those bets and youre -???

                            Time to change system
                            Still beating closing line around 60% of the time, which is sure sign of a working model. I'll be fine.
                            Comment
                            • rollie_t651
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 10-18-14
                              • 873

                              #15
                              Good luck LT
                              Comment
                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-15-14
                                • 3449

                                #16
                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                And yet model still gets just 7.4

                                Primarily due to bad offensive H/A ratings and ballpark factors
                                The over is 33-23 at Petco this season, FYI.
                                Comment
                                • LT Profits
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-27-06
                                  • 90963

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                  The over is 33-23 at Petco this season, FYI.
                                  More to do with deflated totals. Model still shows 3% park run suppression for both righty and lefty bats
                                  Comment
                                  • Jayvegas420
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 03-09-11
                                    • 28213

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Seaweed
                                    LT all those bets and youre -???

                                    Time to change system
                                    Fukk off seaweed. Take you shit to a thread that condones your trrolling.
                                    Comment
                                    • Jayvegas420
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 03-09-11
                                      • 28213

                                      #19
                                      Click image for larger version

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                                      GL today LT
                                      Comment
                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-15-14
                                        • 3449

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                                        More to do with deflated totals. Model still shows 3% park run suppression for both righty and lefty bats
                                        I see a park factor of 1.034, which is 8th highest in MLB this year. Padre home games are averaging 9.4 runs per game.
                                        Comment
                                        • LT Profits
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-27-06
                                          • 90963

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                          I see a park factor of 1.034, which is 8th highest in MLB this year. Padre home games are averaging 9.4 runs per game.
                                          Model park factors are longer term than just this season. It IS a factor though because the 3% is down from recent years.
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                            I see a park factor of 1.034, which is 8th highest in MLB this year. Padre home games are averaging 9.4 runs per game.
                                            Also, don't confuse park factors with shitty pitching. Padres have one of the worst bullpens in baseball this year, which has contributed to the uptick in Petco scoring.
                                            Comment
                                            • Redscot
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-16-11
                                              • 2571

                                              #23
                                              Interactive Guts data table with wOBA constants, FIP constants, and park factors used in our calculations.


                                              Interactive Guts data table with wOBA constants, FIP constants, and park factors used in our calculations.


                                              Comment
                                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-15-14
                                                • 3449

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                Also, don't confuse park factors with shitty pitching. Padres have one of the worst bullpens in baseball this year, which has contributed to the uptick in Petco scoring.
                                                Well, it's the same shitty pitching on the home and on the road, so I'm not sure that's the answer. But I agree that there's shitty pitching aplenty in this game.
                                                Comment
                                                • eddycash
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-06-13
                                                  • 4527

                                                  #25
                                                  Any value on Brewers? I see Cubs but they are -300
                                                  Comment
                                                  • LT Profits
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 10-27-06
                                                    • 90963

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by eddycash
                                                    Any value on Brewers? I see Cubs but they are -300
                                                    Look at the Milwaukee prices though. Not much variance from the +257 per the 60%ers.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • stackz125
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 01-03-16
                                                      • 6191

                                                      #27
                                                      Under in Boston game? 9.5 +115
                                                      Comment
                                                      • funnyb25
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 07-09-09
                                                        • 39663

                                                        #28
                                                        How's the Tigers pen been lately? Boyd got a million pitches thru 3
                                                        Comment
                                                        • McCarthyFam
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 07-06-11
                                                          • 1700

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by funnyb25
                                                          How's the Tigers pen been lately? Boyd got a million pitches thru 3
                                                          he's fine. average pitches per inning is around 15. at 52 thru 3. nothing to be concerned about thus far.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LT Profits
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-27-06
                                                            • 90963

                                                            #30
                                                            1 MLB Addition

                                                            4 MLB Plays Thursday

                                                            Tigers -113 (Heritage)
                                                            Tigers -1.5 +166 (Heritage)
                                                            White Sox / Indians UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
                                                            Twins / Royals OVER 9 -115 (Heritage)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • dirtycash66
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-13-12
                                                              • 2958

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                              4 MLB Plays Thursday

                                                              Tigers -113 (Heritage)
                                                              Tigers -1.5 +166 (Heritage)
                                                              White Sox / Indians UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
                                                              Twins / Royals OVER 9 -115 (Heritage)
                                                              Good call on the tigers
                                                              Comment
                                                              • funnyb25
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 07-09-09
                                                                • 39663

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by dirtycash66
                                                                Good call on the tigers
                                                                Doesn't matter...those 2 plays would hit in 2026...long term man
                                                                Comment
                                                                • dirtycash66
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-13-12
                                                                  • 2958

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I just don't understand how a person makes 90 units in one season and can't seem to make 1 unit the next season .. i guess that just goes to show how unpredictable MLB is. Time to save my money and wait for football to start
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • funnyb25
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 07-09-09
                                                                    • 39663

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • funnyb25
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 07-09-09
                                                                      • 39663

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Tigers had bases loaded 0 out and got only 1 run on a walk. That's brutal
                                                                      Comment
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