MLB - Friday, 6/17/16

[JayDr3am]

Padres might not be such a bad bet today. Why is that gamr starting so late? 10:40 est?

they in cali boy

[RavensFan2k3]

they in cali boy

And those games always start at 10:05 or 10:10 est. never seen one start at almost 11pm

[juicername]

It doesnt make any sense to look at it that way, because we aren't making that same bet 100 times! Lol that game is over, we're on to new games today. Never will you be betting the same exact game with the same exact pitchers and with the same exact line every day. So why does it matter if based on your mode they lose 65% of the time if they're only playing once. I also disagree they lose 65% of time given everything is the exact same

That's the only thing you can disagree with really, which is your prerogative. It's a fact that a team that is 35% to win need a line of better than +186 to be profitable though, you simply can't argue math .

[RavensFan2k3]

That's the only thing you can disagree with really, which is your prerogative. It's a fact that a team that is 35% to win need a line of better than +186 to be profitable though, you simply can't argue math .

I suppose. I don't know why given the lineups and pitchers you only gave them 35% probability to win though. All I know is baseball is more than just numbers, and they won yesterday just like my numbers suggested

[LT Profits]

It doesnt make any sense to look at it that way, because we aren't making that same bet 100 times! Lol that game is over, we're on to new games today. Never will you be betting the same exact game with the same exact pitchers and with the same exact line every day. So why does it matter if based on your mode they lose 65% of the time if they're only playing once. I also disagree they lose 65% of time given everything is the exact same

This is not even worth arguing because it is like arguing 1+1 is not 2.

The only thing that is debatable is the accuracy of the model, but once you come up with a game projection by whatever means you use, you compare that projection to the real implied odds and act accordingly. It actually make perfect sense, I just don't have the time to keep explaining the same thing over and over.

Ask yourself what % of the time did you think the Brewers would win that game yesterday. If you honestly thought it was better than 42.2%, then +137 was a good bet. I had then at 35%, if it was somewhere in between, +137 was -EV.

[LT Profits]

But to answer your last question, I think Padres are playing Friday night games only at 7:40 local time this year.

[juicername]

I suppose. I don't know why given the lineups and pitchers you only gave them 35% probability to win though. All I know is baseball is more than just numbers, and they won yesterday just like my numbers suggested

I didn't have a pick on that game so I'm not saying I agree with the assigned win percentage, just that once you've established one you gotta roll with it if the numbers suggest you have value.

How you make your picks is obviously up to you, and we all focus on different aspects I would assume, if you can find angles beyond the stats that's great and good for you. If you assigned the Brewers a chance to win of greater than 42% yesterday then you were right to bet them at +137.

Much like LT I prefer a more math based approach myself though, since it's easy to misinterpret short term variance/noise for something more substantial than it is. I love to ride streaks and hot teams though, something LT's model does not seem to take into account .

EDIT: Meh, I was a slow pony here as LT already explained it.

[Jayvegas420]

I also like the idea of fading Arrieta today.
Do you consider Kris Bryant being out of the lineup a very important factor today?

[RavensFan2k3]

This is not even worth arguing because it is like arguing 1+1 is not 2.

The only thing that is debatable is the accuracy of the model, but once you come up with a game projection by whatever means you use, you compare that projection to the real implied odds and act accordingly. It actually make perfect sense, I just don't have the time to keep explaining the same thing over and over.

Ask yourself what % of the time did you think the Brewers would win that game yesterday. If you honestly thought it was better than 42.2%, then +137 was a good bet. I had then at 35%, if it was somewhere in between, +137 was -EV.

So I guess my issue is with the accuracy of your model. I don't know how it couldn't see Brewers as a play yesterday but thought Padres was a play. And I'm not so much arguing with you, just trying to get a better understanding by asking questions and asking for reasoning. And as always I appreciate your responses.

[RavensFan2k3]

I didn't have a pick on that game so I'm not saying I agree with the assigned win percentage, just that once you've established one you gotta roll with it if the numbers suggest you have value.

How you make your picks is obviously up to you, and we all focus on different aspects I would assume, if you can find angles beyond the stats that's great and good for you. If you assigned the Brewers a chance to win of greater than 42% yesterday then you were right to bet them at +137.

Much like LT I prefer a more math based approach myself though, since it's easy to misinterpret short term variance/noise for something more substantial than it is. I love to ride streaks and hot teams though, something LT's model does not seem to take into account .

EDIT: Meh, I was a slow pony here as LT already explained it.

thank you aswell for your response

[juicername]

So I guess my issue is with the accuracy of your model. I don't know how it couldn't see Brewers as a play yesterday but thought Padres was a play. And I'm not so much arguing with you, just trying to get a better understanding by asking questions and asking for reasoning. And as always I appreciate your responses.

I guess we're all somewhat questioning the models accuracy at this point to be honest . I must say that it's not often I've agreed with a play here lately, but that was also the case during the monster season last year so ...

[funnyb25]

Lol pirates

[JayDr3am]

I also like the idea of fading Arrieta today.
Do you consider Kris Bryant being out of the lineup a very important factor today?

i hope you didnt fade the cubs with liriano at mound.. i really do hope not

[Yazworm91]

LT so when would your model say to take Pitt at +1.5 when you are getting +ML on them. Because I know you'll take -1.5 rarely but have.

[mikefan1034]

i hope you didnt fade the cubs with liriano at mound.. i really do hope not

Of course he does it's what the model is all about he sees value in losing

[JayDr3am]

Of course he does it's what the model is all about he sees value in losing

model, schmodel

[jayc88]

WTF is HIS line??

If you were Brocks bookie and would give him 10-20 cent off of every fav he bets , you would still rake in money as crazy.
Absolutely clueless

[funnyb25]

How come Reds arent a play at +240? Seems like that should be a play... HUGE dog...prolly win 1 out of 20 times...should be a model play no?

[tragicend]

Nobody likes Seattle?

I took Seattle...u on it also?

[tragicend]

How come Reds arent a play at +240? Seems like that should be a play... HUGE dog...prolly win 1 out of 20 times...should be a model play no?

I cashed the Braves last night...that Freeman is a beast.

[Broke Homey]

Have we met?

Long Term probabilities are the ONLY thing that matter and is the entire point of the model.

Hi LT,
I am kind of new to the SBR forum and online wagering in general, but do you have a link that kind of explains your model. I am sure this has been asked before and i apologize.
BH

[JayDr3am]

im not questioning or care about the model i just want to know what possesses you to take the pirates after their bad hitting performances AND with arrietta on the mound? its like borderline crazy

[RavensFan2k3]

im not questioning or care about the model i just want to know what possesses you to take the pirates after their bad hitting performances AND with arrietta on the mound? its like borderline crazy

No, we're the crazy ones to not see that Pirates had value even though we knew they'd never win. The mathematics of probability said that the Pirates had value and would win at a certain percentage of the time, Im assuming it was close to 40%

[JayDr3am]

its kind of irks me cause LT has a cult-like following and they are tailing these nearly impossible plays. and he has them convinced that picks like the pirates +217, away, with liriano vs arietta, is a decent pick. thats a reach if ive ever seen one.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

its kind of irks me cause LT has a cult-like following and they are tailing these nearly impossible plays. and he has them convinced that picks like the pirates +217, away, with liriano vs arietta, is a decent pick. thats a reach if ive ever seen one.

i don't think everyone tails, we just like to talk baseball in his thread. best baseball thread on players talk by far.

but i agree about fading arietta today. "Cubs are 6-0 in Arrietas last 6 starts vs. Pirates."

another note, anyone taking a stab on atl tonight? i'm tempted...

[RavensFan2k3]

I agree, I love the discussion. I personally like to ask him specific questions that I use to help formulate my own plays. Often times I'll use information he gives me to go against his own plays and I'll win and then wonder how he didn't, excuse me , how his model didn't see what I saw given the same information

[funnyb25]

I'm just waiting for the "8 mlb additions" to try and chase this disaster of a run

[JayDr3am]

i don't think everyone tails, we just like to talk baseball in his thread. best baseball thread on players talk by far.

but i agree about fading arietta today. "Cubs are 6-0 in Arrietas last 6 starts vs. Pirates."

another note, anyone taking a stab on atl tonight? i'm tempted...

fair enough

[RavensFan2k3]

I'm just waiting for the "8 mlb additions" to try and chase this disaster of a run

I don't think he's chasing, i think he just posts plays as his model spits them out. Sometimes he has like 15+ plays all at once

[RavensFan2k3]

I took Seattle...u on it also?

Not yet. Like Brewers too

[44 Mag]

I also like the idea of fading Arrieta today.
Do you consider Kris Bryant being out of the lineup a very important factor today?

Excellent idea, you and your friends must be wondering what the heck just happened. By the way, I am not Johnny after the game, I had quite a bit invested in this match long before it started. I am surprised at you going that way. BOL. in future endeavors.

[Matty Mo]

Funny thing is, If the Pirates would have won somehow, everyone would be praising the +240 win. When, if you took the Pirates +240 vs Arrieta every time you'd be in such a big hole... but hey, there's value there!

Can't just use math only in this game, have to put something into trends and streaks. Sure, Math should be a majority factor but trends and streaks should weigh in. Arrieta owns the Pirates

[LT Profits]

I'm just waiting for the "8 mlb additions" to try and chase this disaster of a run

Just ONE.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

7 MLB Plays Friday

Pirates +217 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Phillies UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees / Twins UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
Tigers -113 (DSI)
Tigers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Tigers -0.5 +110 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Padres +151 (Heritage)

[LT Profits]

How come Reds arent a play at +240? Seems like that should be a play... HUGE dog...prolly win 1 out of 20 times...should be a model play no?

UGH! Just because a play is +240, it does not mean it has value.
Look at the 60%ers post, model has Houston 71% (-245), so line seems perfect.