New Baseball Power Rating System

Formulawiz · 04-27-09, 08:39 AM

Baseball Yesterday

Using the sportrends PR's yesterday I went 4-2. I had PIT which was a + 190 dog. What pissed me off was SF going into the bottom of the 9th leading 4-1 and losing the game.
Anyway so far PR system looks pretty good. I hope this coupled with sportrends software will provide a great baseball season again.

caracalla · 04-27-09, 11:39 AM

Tx ... I'll study it

caracalla · 04-27-09, 02:21 PM

According the system
Boston +113
Flo +144
Lad -134
NYY -117
Bal -143
Was +164

I'm right?

The_Kid · 04-27-09, 03:12 PM

Formula, would you mind posting picks for like a week so we can see results? Thanks.

Formulawiz · 04-27-09, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by caracalla

According the system
Boston +113
Flo +144
Lad -134
NYY -117
Bal -143
Was +164

I'm right?

I am getting
ATL
CIN
FLA
LAD
NYY
BOS

WAS and BAL , not enough innings pitched. According to instruction the pitcher needs at least 20 innings pitched. Secondly ATL is only a 1/2 unit play because the Team PR is within the 100 points differential. I personally dont like BOS because they are on a 10 game winning streak and its pretty hard to keep winning. Does anyone get the same games I do. This is the way I interpret the PR's.

peterpan19 · 04-27-09, 03:57 PM

formulawiz
i think you have it correct if you only consider 20 innings pitched as the min for the pitcher you choose...but wouldnt it make more sense that the opposing pitcher should have at least 20 innings pitched too...just to make sure there is enough data...I mean in a week or so we dont have to think about it anymore bc most of the pitchers will have 20 Innings in a week or two... just a thought...

GL btw yeah Bos and NYY would be the only plays if you consider 20 I pitched for both starters... and yes Bos looks fishy...

danychaos · 04-27-09, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by caracalla

According the system
Boston +113
Flo +144
Lad -134
NYY -117
Bal -143
Was +164

I'm right?

I'm getting all of the above plus Cinci, not considering .5 unit plays (Atlanta)

I'm thinking Was and Bal are plays because sportrends have their pitchers listed? therefore they have 20 innings, correct me if I'm wrong, thanks.

danychaos · 04-27-09, 04:09 PM

Where do you check how many innings has the starter pitched?, thanks.

Formulawiz · 04-27-09, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by peterpan19

formulawiz
i think you have it correct if you only consider 20 innings pitched as the min for the pitcher you choose...but wouldnt it make more sense that the opposing pitcher should have at least 20 innings pitched too...just to make sure there is enough data...I mean in a week or so we dont have to think about it anymore bc most of the pitchers will have 20 Innings in a week or two... just a thought...

GL btw yeah Bos and NYY would be the only plays if you consider 20 I pitched for both starters... and yes Bos looks fishy...

Yes both pitchers would have to have a minimum of 20 innings pitched.

Formulawiz · 04-27-09, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by danychaos

I'm getting all of the above plus Cinci, not considering .5 unit plays (Atlanta)

I'm thinking Was and Bal are plays because sportrends have their pitchers listed? therefore they have 20 innings, correct me if I'm wrong, thanks.

Absolutely not. I see some pitchers listed with 10 innings. I would be very careful when comparing pitchers.

Formulawiz · 04-27-09, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by danychaos

Where do you check how many innings has the starter pitched?, thanks.

I believe its the third column which says IP which is innings pitched.

Formulawiz · 04-27-09, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by peterpan19

formulawiz
i think you have it correct if you only consider 20 innings pitched as the min for the pitcher you choose...but wouldnt it make more sense that the opposing pitcher should have at least 20 innings pitched too...just to make sure there is enough data...I mean in a week or so we dont have to think about it anymore bc most of the pitchers will have 20 Innings in a week or two... just a thought...

GL btw yeah Bos and NYY would be the only plays if you consider 20 I pitched for both starters... and yes Bos looks fishy...

I also want to keep an eye on just using pitcher PR and Team PR in addition to having the play agreeing on both PR's.

peterpan19 · 04-27-09, 04:36 PM

formulawiz
so we would basicly have 3 different records... 1 were both pitcher and team PR agree....1 were only pitcher PR is ok...and 1 were only the team PR are ok... I also dont know how much data the whole PR thing need, but since we have almost 1 month of baseball behind us soon...it should be enough

also Florida is a no play as Sanchez only has 18 IP so far...same for LAD as Zito for the Giants only has 16 IP...also no play on Cin as Cueto only has 17.2 IP...also no play on ATL as Pineiro only has 19.2 IP...

so the only games were both pitcher PR and team PR agree on are Bos and NYY... btw as said b4 in 1 a week or 2 we probably will have more play bc we wont have to bother with the 20 IP anymore for most of the starters...

Formulawiz · 04-27-09, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by peterpan19

formulawiz
so we would basicly have 3 different records... 1 were both pitcher and team PR agree....1 were only pitcher PR is ok...and 1 were only the team PR are ok... I also dont know how much data the whole PR thing need, but since we have almost 1 month of baseball behind us soon...it should be enough

also Florida is a no play as Sanchez only has 18 IP so far...same for LAD as Zito for the Giants only has 16 IP...also no play on Cin as Cueto only has 17.2 IP...also no play on ATL as Pineiro only has 19.2 IP...

so the only games were both pitcher PR and team PR agree on are Bos and NYY... btw as said b4 in 1 a week or 2 we probably will have more play bc we wont have to bother with the 20 IP anymore for most of the starters...

It looks like your correct, only 2 games tonight

peterpan19 · 04-28-09, 03:50 AM

ok yesterdays action went 1-1...resulting a small net loss of -0.04

record
YTD (both): 1-1 -0.04 units

plays for Tuesday to follow

peterpan19 · 04-28-09, 04:13 AM

play as I see them:
Pit +135 (Team PR ok...pitcher PR just missed by .6 23.6 to 43.0) .5 unit play if we also want to play the games were the Team PR is ok (min requ. 20 IP by each pitcher)

TB -111 (team and pitcher PR ok...plus both starters 20 IP) 1 unit play

all other games dont meet the min pitcher requ. or both PR are too close (ATL/STL)

as said b4 we should have more plays soon as the 20 IP requ. is not met by most of the pitchers right now...

peterpan19 · 04-28-09, 04:18 AM

also we didnt have the case so far, but the max you should take a fav. is -175 .... it doesnt look like it will be the case today... but for the future I will use the line 30 min b4 the first pitch for that kind of games... for all the other games I will take the lines posted on pinny when I go through the whole process...

GL

Formulawiz · 04-28-09, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

ok yesterdays action went 1-1...resulting a small net loss of -0.04

record
YTD (both): 1-1 -0.04 units

plays for Tuesday to follow

Peter it would be nice if you kept all the records for us. I think we should only keep records for Both PR's and Pitch PR's. I dont think the team PR is that important. The way I read the description the team PR has to be there with the pitching. What do you think.
Lets make sure we are both on the same page for todays plays
PIT and TB
Thanks

peterpan19 · 04-28-09, 11:43 AM

ok so we only keep track of both and pitchers PR...in that case we only have one play and that is TB (both agree)... Pit just missed the pitchers PR, bc malholm has 23.6 and bush has 43.0...so if we go by the rules...Pit is not a play....

so only play for today is TB (both)

genero · 04-28-09, 11:46 AM

there is NO FORMULA that will win consitently in baseball, and by consistent i mean over 75%

peterpan19 · 04-28-09, 12:28 PM

genero
noone need to hit 75% in baseball...as long as you hit 50% with big dogs you are ok...I mean I dont bet much on this system anway...but we can try it...and why not give it shot...if we are down like 20 Units in a week or two...ok so it may be....but for we track the plays here and believe if its working all kind of people will come here and if we fail the same people will come here too and bash us all day long...

GL bro

Formulawiz · 04-28-09, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by genero

there is NO FORMULA that will win consitently in baseball, and by consistent i mean over 75%

If you hit 75% in baseball you would be a very rich man. You can hit under 50% in baseball and still come out a winner. Secondly I believe this baseball system sportrends is using is new so it has to be monitored.

caracalla · 04-29-09, 07:55 AM

Today... Seattle & Phila

caracalla · 04-29-09, 09:02 AM

But Phila >-175

peterpan19 · 04-29-09, 11:20 AM

MIL would be a play...but over -175
SEA is a play I got it at -121

thats it for the early games....

yesterday: 0-1 -1.11
overall: 1-2 -1.15

GL

peterpan19 · 04-29-09, 04:45 PM

ok early action not so good...overall now at 1-3 -2.36 units

later plays:
Bos -125
phi -171 (right now...I will wait until 30 min b4 first pitch...if still under -175 its a play)

GL

peterpan19 · 04-30-09, 10:22 AM

record so far overall:2-4 -3.07 Units

will post the plays later on...

GL

Formulawiz · 04-30-09, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

record so far overall:2-4 -3.07 Units

will post the plays later on...

GL

PHI was not a play the line was -185 and there was'nt one casino under -180. Therefore we have
overall: 2-3 - 1.66

Secondly I spoke with sportrends yesterday and they informed me that all plays should start MAY15 as with their software, due to the fact we need more data. Since we started it too early, lets keep on going anyway. In addition as in basketball all plays are to be made within 15 minutes prior to start of game.

genero · 04-30-09, 11:51 AM

you are going to have to explain HOW the money line on a game effects whether it will win or lose! REALLY

if the stats or trends say a team will win or lose , ( unlike a point spread) it doesnt matter whether the line is -200 or -150 !!! its a strait up money line so the system doesnt work, unless its just to tell you to bet small favorites

peterpan19 · 04-30-09, 12:17 PM

formulawiz
so we are going with the major casinos again ?...cause I always looked at pinny...but thats ok...

so record is 2-3 and -1.36 for me...

peterpan19 · 04-30-09, 04:16 PM

one half unit play today: TB (pitching PR only)

GL

Formulawiz · 04-30-09, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by peterpan19

formulawiz
so we are going with the major casinos again ?...cause I always looked at pinny...but thats ok...

so record is 2-3 and -1.36 for me...

TEX -130, We had OAK +120 Win
3-3 - 0.26
TB is 1/2

Yes we look at the majority of all casinos within 15 minutes before game starts.

cocknocker · 04-30-09, 05:15 PM

Now exactly what is going on in here? It sounds and looks very interesting. Mathematical or scientifical, you're still gonna have to go all in one time for me this year, just to keep things in perspective, lol! A shot of Everclear if ya know what I mean.

peterpan19 · 05-01-09, 05:19 AM

overall record (both agree): 3-3 -0.16 units (depending on the line you got)
pitcher PR only: 1-0 +0.51

will post todays picks shortly...

ck
its like using power ratings in bb... I dont know how they actually calculate the PR for baseball... but as long as it is free and if we can make money with it why not use it (btw the bb power ratings were pretty good last season)... I will track it... I think we will see how it goes until mid May, but as the whole Power Rating stuff needs a lot of data it should get better with time...we will see

GL and have a great trip