G's baseball thread and record

[G's pks]

Red Sox which is a play and will go in my record looking great! 9-3 in the 8th!!!!

[TodaysAction]

Sure no need to put in red...what you see a successful system and have a problem? the system started 1-0... If you have ever read any of my posts... Only the bets I make go into my record... Read a few of my posts! So you will see last week the system had a 4-0 day... I bet one...that was the one that went into my record... If Toronto wins I will say the system is 2-0...but it will not go into my record either...

Thanks for explaining it. Would you prefer green, blue or another color? It was done, you you'd know what I was referring to and nothing else and no, unlike other people I don't have issues or problems with systems that are profitable. So from today, only the pair go into your record then right? One could look at DET & TOR as "leans" or teams that made the grade/cut but you are not wagering on, is this correct? Just trying to have an understanding for when I read thread. Again, thanks for clearing these couple loose ends up for me and continued success to you.

[G's pks]

These two came through but did not clear as many filters.... Once again Seattle and these two picks are leans for right now... I am starting the second level of filtering I use which might add/remove a team/s... I am also planning another system.... Even though this system is perfect I think I have found another hole that can create another system... WIll need at least 10 hours of time to put together, when it comes together it will be system #3... This system will involve an even higher risk...but will offer better reward... But seeing System #1, was a success.. and system #2 has not lost... still giving most of my time to system #2.

Ok here are two more series of interest to take a look at...

5/23/ to 5/26

Detroit won

Toronto won

Again all three are leans at this time, which will require one win within series.

System starts day 2-0... I am doing well also on my only play up to now...the red sox...up big! 10-3 bottom of 8th

Again for those who have not read past one post...the system just keeps winning when I bet and when I do not... the only picks that go in my record are the ones I bet... The other wins are not in there...but they still win!

[G's pks]

Thanks for explaining it. Would you prefer green, blue or another color? It was done, you you'd know what I was referring to and nothing else and no, unlike other people I don't have issues or problems with systems that are profitable. So from today, only the pair go into your record then right? One could look at DET & TOR as "leans" or teams that made the grade/cut but you are not wagering on, is this correct? Just trying to have an understanding for when I read thread. Again, thanks for clearing these couple loose ends up for me and continued success to you.

Yes only the ones I show a unit amount bet have ever gone into the record... All the other wins have not! Otherwise if I did bet all of them...it would be even better... I list them as leans once the computer is done picking... I place bet amounts with ones I play... I only count what I bet... But if you go back...this system has been awesome... I still give the system for picking winners though...takes a long time with all the filters I use...

[G's pks]

Seattle - 133 1unit to win .75

Boston -123 1unit to win .81

Only action tonight... One system chase play, one chase will go into my own record...

Up 10-3 in the 9th... I am going to put the easy red Sox victory in the books!
system picks 2-0 tonight, seattle pending, my capping pick Boston 1-0...

[G's pks]

G's recordkeeping
Baseball 13-3-1 picks (Counting system series picks 25-4-1)
Total 33- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1
System #2(6-0) games within series (6-2)
System #2 total +9.14 units

Once again as it did last week...the system gets off to a fast start! 2-0...but I did not bet those picks, and they do not go into record..do have the seattle game pending which is a play...

The red sox win a personal pick goes into my capping record... The Seattle pick will go into system record as i did place a bet...either way...the system continues at a great clip!

Just checked and I see Boston is still adding runs in the 9th! 11-3... Already added win to record...

[TodaysAction]

Thanks for explaining it and I was able to read the first 4 pages and have a general idea of how and why you wager as you do. Continued success to you.

[G's pks]

Thanks if I just bet all the system plays all the time... I would be up big...but i often pass... And when i do play them... I rarely go big... Did have a nice hit for 10 units last week on the Rays which was posted...

Also a reminder for those that play along... The Tigers and Jays won...which mean no more bets on those series... Seatlle remains in play until they win tonight...or play again next game if they lose...

Then new picks come out for new series on Thursday... G.

GL G.

[G's pks]

Adding a second play on Seattle for tomorrow... Padres up 7-1 in 6th...already placed bet for second game of chase... But staying very small thanks to red sox win...

6/24

Seattle -133 1 unit to win .75 (game 2 of chase)(games within chase series 0-1)

If you played any of the other 3.... Detroit, Toronto or Boston...they all won in game one so those series bets are over.... Only Boston the one I bet went into record... the other wins did not...the Seattle loss in first game is added within series games..

G's recordkeeping
Baseball 13-3-1 picks (Counting system series picks 25-4-1)
Total 33- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1
System #2(6-0) games within series (6-3)
System #2 total +9.14 units +8.14 units...took out unit for game one chase loss on mariners...moves to game #2..added loss within series above...6-3...series win pending

[G's pks]

[quote=G's pks;1967191]Adding a second play on Seattle for tomorrow... Padres up 7-1 in 6th...already placed bet for second game of chase... But staying very small thanks to red sox win...

6/24

Seattle -133 1 unit to win .75 (game 2 of chase)(games within chase series 0-1)Won


G's recordkeeping
Baseball 13-3-1 picks (Counting system series picks 26-4-1)
Total 34- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1
System #2(7-0) games within series (7-3)
System #2 +8.89 units...

Ok there it is boys... took a second game with this one and a homer in bottom of 8th And yet another winner!

Now picks for the week go to 4-0, remember with Seattle winning...no more bets on this series...

Also no new picks from system till new series start on Friday...

Hope everyone rang the register tonight...

[G's pks]

[quote=G's pks;1963364]Ok here they come... As always a reminder...6/23 to 6/25

Seattle won in second game of chase...

system picks 3-0, my picks 1-0...week total 4-0..

[G's pks]

As I enter post... total views was at 5454.... Obviously meaning some are coming here looking at my picks and taking advantage of them....that is fine. In fact that is the idea... I have my picks set for the weekend series... the computer selections at least....

But the main reason is just to see how many stop in and read/take the picks/whatever... this will be interesting... ..lets see...post/thread total at 5454... Everyone who clicks...reads this thread till this point...proves a point to me about gamblers... So if you are reading...taking the picks...winning.....total views past 5454...will prove my point.... GL today boys

Thanks for the pm's and almost 300 views today at 5709,,, hopefully some took advantage again!

G's recordkeeping
Baseball 13-3-1 picks (Counting system series picks 26-4-1)
Total 34- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1
System #2(7-0) games within series (7-3)
System #2 +8.89 units...

[dreamjob]

What's up G. I've been trying a few other things out which haven't worked out too well. I took a BIG hit on the cards and brewers when the rockies went on that tear. Great job on your picks. Your system seems to be working well. Keep hitting winners.

Oh yeah who do you have today.
Thanks

[sportsguy04]

What's up G? Nice work on MLB and the plays so far! Baseball has murdered me. Do you have any picks for today yet? I have to leave for work shortly and wanted to get my plays in before hand.

[G's pks]

What's up G? Nice work on MLB and the plays so far! Baseball has murdered me. Do you have any picks for today yet? I have to leave for work shortly and wanted to get my plays in before hand.

you have mail...

[G's pks]

What's up G. I've been trying a few other things out which haven't worked out too well. I took a BIG hit on the cards and brewers when the rockies went on that tear. Great job on your picks. Your system seems to be working well. Keep hitting winners.

Oh yeah who do you have today.
Thanks

you have mail if you want to check out the picks...leaving now... back later this afternoon....G.

[themajormt]

GL today G...

[MILEHIGHMONSTERS]

GL today G. Heres what i have for today!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/195877-mlb-season-winners-p2.html#post1974516

[G's pks]

Thanks guys...and for those who asked for the picks this morning in private messages. They were send in your mail this morning just got back in and now will try to reduce plays as I always do.... But if the system chases win..I will just mention even if I did not bet that particular chase...

Here is what the screens gave me......
I have not had time to run my second level screens... But here they go in order of strength.. Games that have not started... (remember these are 3 game chases...so if game one losses, bet same team game two, or three as needed.

#1Texas
#2LAD
#3Nym
#4Pit


I am going to try to run my second level of screens...to reduce to 2-3...like I always do... but at this point I really like Texas to win a game for sure within the three game chase...... My system also gave me the white sox as a weak number five pick... I see they are losing by 3 in the 8th inning... And obviously being a number five pick and the game already being almost over is a no bet at this point... But the white sox might be worth a chase for games 2 or 3 if needed..... may give it a shot... strange start time on their game today...

So I am going to try to reduce to 2 or 3... before I place any bets... Bets as always will be posted...and those as always will be the only picks that go in my record... GL G.

Once again the rules of my system... Received some p.m.'s asking exactly how it works..

It is a conservative chase system...

I run filters involving six hundred statistics...the system filters from the fifteen series that start each time new series start...(30 teams...15 games)... The system usually returns 2-6 series to chase.

From there I narrow down to 1-3... using a second group of filters when possible...

System #2 has not lost...but of course it will and probably sooner or later! But in the long run it will give a profit.

Here is how the conservative chase works...once the teams are picked..

Start with a small/medium bet in game one of the series. If it wins that series ends, any win within a series ends that series. If the first game losses, increase the second bet to win slightly more than lost in the second game... If it wins, a small profit, but a profit none the less and that series ends. If game two losses, I still remain in the same betting range, more or less accepting a loss for the series...

So the first two games become the key... With a series win within the first two games...a profit should be shown, if a loss in the third game the bet is minimal and not that costly. Up to now no games have gone to a third game in my chases...so all should show a profit.

It works a lot better than doubling and doubling and getting swept in a series... Not as risky and up to now it is working. It is a long season, with burn out creeping in, I am already tired of going through stats...but as long as it keeps winning I will!

Hopefully this explains everything GL G.

[G's pks]

First bet for 5/26...

And of course I do not like the line! So small play...

Texas -230 Silva/Millwood must pitch... 1unit to win .43

[dreamjob]

Yeah that's some nasty chalk. But hey a win is a win.

[G's pks]

Yeah that's some nasty chalk. But hey a win is a win.

Hopefully...but if not..will be back on them tomorrow...

[G's pks]

Pittsburgh a no bet...even though I did not want to... Pitching mismatch..who is this guy pitching for Pirates? Will have to pass...

[G's pks]

Nym appears to be a tough one tonight....will pass... but like the CWS series..might be worth jumping in on game two for a short two game chase...the Mets are tough at home... I think they will win a game in this series...but will pass for now..

[G's pks]

LAD and Sea...this could turn out to be a great series! Both have great pitching and have played well in their last ten... Going to pass on this one for now to...but like the Mets series just cannot see Seattle winning all 3 in LA... So only bet for now is Texas tonight...

Have enough time now maybe to go beyond the first five picks and maybe find another pick for tonight.. GL everyone if I do not come back with anything else

[G's pks]

Murphy hits a 3 run homer in second! 6-1 rangers Time for a little tv...will check score later boys... Looks like another perfect week!

[G's pks]

Yeah that's some nasty chalk. But hey a win is a win.

Hope you are in! 8-1 now! in third....

[dreamjob]

Hope you are in! 8-1 now! in third....

Oh yeah! I'm in. I also have a bet on LAD

[G's pks]

Oh yeah! I'm in. I also have a bet on LAD

Good luck on LA... This is my only action on Texas...small but I am slowly building a nice unit amount with System #2...

Dodgers and Mariners should be a good series... I passed only because Seattle has been a great team on the mound too...and the Ddgers stumbled a little against the White Sox...

But hopefully you cash on that one too... Well if Texas hits I am done for the week... Otherwise on to game 2.

I also really liked Pit...but backed off because of their starting pitcher...but watch the system always knows better with its Pirate pick...

[G's pks]

marking Texas as a win(12-2 in 8th)...again only what i bet goes into my record....but looks like the system is going to have a great night as usual too! My week is over... Texas chase ends with the win in game 1...

Back with new series picks on Monday/Tuesday...system is breezing right through...
Hope everyone rings the register this weekend...



G's recordkeeping
Baseball 13-3-1 picks (Counting system series baseball picks 27-4-1)
Total 35- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1
System #2(8-0) games within series (8-3)
System #2 +9.32 units...
__________________

[G's pks]

First bet for 5/26...

And of course I do not like the line! So small play...

Texas -230 Silva/Millwood must pitch... 1unit to win .43Won

GL this weekend everyone... I am done..be back Mon/Tues.

[jakeandba]

nice job and keep up the good work...we are all here to make money and u are helping us out..do you also do football ncaa and nfl?

[G's pks]

nice job and keep up the good work...we are all here to make money and u are helping us out..do you also do football ncaa and nfl?

I actually kept mixing tons of stats till this one system clicked... I back tested over two years of info and found the stats that made it work. With the conservative chase method (what I named System #2) it is meant for smaller gains long term.. This system will get you through the year...winning if you follow exactly.

As far as ncaa/nfl/nhl/nba... NBA was by far my strongest...had a great year... hockey got better for me in the playoffs did not bet as much... Ncaa...up small, NFL had a great playoff run...

I will be working on a system for nfl... NBA, I am a point buyer...

One thing I have noticed in nfl, the first week of season there are usually quite a few surprises...

Still three months of baseball left, so would like to pad my account a little more...

Thanks system had a great night again last night...
#1Texas Won
#2LAD Won
#3Nym (chase moves to game 2)
#4Pit won

And once again..the only game that went into my record was the one I bet, Texas. The other wins are a credit to the system...but not included unless I bet... Have a good weekend....

[HoulihansTX]

Thanks system had a great night again last night...
#1Texas Won#2LAD Won
#3Nym (chase moves to game 2)
#4Pit won

How long does it usually take for a chase hit. I wanted to bet the Mets today, since they gave away yesterdays game. I don't think their bats have a problem hitting even with all those injuries. I like Redding also.

[G's pks]

How long does it usually take for a chase hit. I wanted to bet the Mets today, since they gave away yesterdays game. I don't think their bats have a problem hitting even with all those injuries. I like Redding also.

With the system I am using now, it usually filters between 2-6 teams to chase... I then do a second level of filtering which really came up strong with Texas...which won last night and was my only bet...so that chase ended.

As far as the other series Pit, and LAD also won... I really liked them both...but in system #2, a second level of filtering questioned Pits pitcher...well they won and that chase ended. LAD, even though the system liked them I backed off because they had lost 2 in a row... Seattle winning 2 in a row. I also saw seattle's team BA moving up... so I passed...did not matter system was right and LAD won.

So the last series pick...last nights game...the NYM, had a pitching mismatch in favor of the NYY so I passed... Up to now I have never joined in a chase in the middle of a series... I also notice today there is a pitching mismatch in favor of the NYY...not saying the Yanks win automatically because of it...but the system if I was chasing this series...would be a pass... But the mets are home and one of the best home teams... So should be interesting.

[quote=HoulihansTX;1977103]How long does it usually take for a chase hit.

I have almost as many rules as filters in place for system #2 to avoid a streak of losing...

The chases always start at the beginning of the 3/4 game series and end automatically with a win..

If a chase goes past the series it is still over and marked a loss. It does not continue into another series...way to dangerous.

Also one other rule that a few are following...this is not a reckless double up each time chase... That failed with system one with one series loss...when the Cards got swept by the Rockies who of course were at the time starting an incredible run...

With system 2... It is more like bet a unit on game one, if a loss...slightly more just to be positive on game 2, if a loss there is no doubling...basically the same bet on game 3... So a series sweep will only cost 5-7 units max...

The key to this system is winning in game one or two... Which has been happening.... Unfortunately once I do not play game one...I never join in a chase in game two of the series... So that does suck that my weekend is over,,,but that is how I have to play to win...

So the answer to the Mets chase question because game #1 had a pitching mismatch and I did not play...record wise the chase ended there... In game two there is also a pitching mismatch so I would be fighting my second level of filters again... So again no bet...

Up to now all the games I have bet in system #2, have won in game one, except one that went a second game. I know the system is due to hit a bump in the road soon..but I am just following what I see.... So as far as the Mets it really stopped being a play after the no bet in game one.

But seeing you are playing the Mets today...what really stands out for the Mets is they lead mlb in hitting, are in the top half in era above the yanks there too... and have been very tough at home with one of the better records. But once again I often ignore the system based on the second level of filtering...which eliminated the mets as a potential chase...due too the pitching mismatches in games 1, 2... But I still think it would be a surprise if the Yanks win all 3 this weekend... GL..hopefully this gives a little better understanding of the system...

Also remember there are teams swept in every series sets that begin... It is limiting to 2-5 teams that appear to have several very distinct edges, then limiting to the systems top 2 picks is how I usually play... GL G.