terrortwylight - 2015 MLB Season Thread

[2daBank]

hahahaha that's the best when you go into a movie with your girl and then you come out, check your phone.

either you get AMPED out of nowhere or you look like someone just told you your mother was murdered.

that would pretty much sum it up. i had a great deal riding on hawks as well so it was prob exactly that situation..took everything i had (and some herbal enhancement) to block it out and enjoy the movie, helped the movie was pretty good..

[2daBank]

slight lean to scrubbies but would like line to come down a little more before i would consider a play on them..

[terrortwylight]

adding:
Houston Astros ML, +106, 1u



updated:
MON 4/27
Detroit Tigers ML, -154, 2u
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +110, 1u
LA Dodgers ML, -134, 5u
Houston Astros ML, +106, 1u


YTD:
27-45-5 (-16.34u)

[terrortwylight]

adding:
Chicago Cubs ML, -124, 1u



updated:
MON 4/27
Detroit Tigers ML, -154, 2u
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +110, 1u
LA Dodgers ML, -134, 5u
Houston Astros ML, +106, 1u
Chicago Cubs ML, -124, 1u



YTD:
27-45-5 (-16.34u)

[terrortwylight]

Probably shouldn't have played the Astros or Cubs but I've been eyeballing them all day. I knew I was going to play Detroit and LAD since last night. We'll see how it goes.

[terrortwylight]

MON 4/27
Detroit Tigers ML, -154, 2u (W)
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +110, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers ML, -134, 5u
Houston Astros ML, +106, 1u
Chicago Cubs ML, -124, 1u (W)


DAILY:
2-1-0 (+2.00u)


YTD:
27-45-5 (-16.34u)


Dodgers and Astros were both looking good for awhile but they are both shaky at this point.

[terrortwylight]

MON 4/27
Detroit Tigers ML, -154, 2u (W)
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +110, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers ML, -134, 5u (W)
Houston Astros ML, +106, 1u
Chicago Cubs ML, -124, 1u (W)


DAILY:
3-1-0 (+7.00u)


YTD:
27-45-5 (-16.34u)


THANK GOD THE DODGERS WON.

Time to get things moving in the right direction.

If the Astros actually get through this last inning without falling apart I will actually shit my own pants.

[terrortwylight]

MON 4/27
Detroit Tigers ML, -154, 2u (W)
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +110, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers ML, -134, 5u (W)
Houston Astros ML, +106, 1u (W)
Chicago Cubs ML, -124, 1u (W)


DAILY:
4-1-0 (+8.06u)


YTD:
31-46-5 (-8.28u)

[terrortwylight]

TUES 4/28
Detroit Tigers ML, -136, 1u
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +115, 1u
Boston Red Sox ML, -122, 1u

YTD:
31-46-5 (-8.28u)

Not seeing a lot of value on the board today besides these just yet. I do like the Astros but something is holding me back.

Sorry for getting Boston posted a couple minutes after the game started. Been busy all day and just now getting down to actually capping. I'd much prefer to get my bets in than get them posted on SBR.

[Buckandadime]

Good Luck.. I like Detroit with ya

[terrortwylight]

adding:
NY Yankees ML, -108, 1u
Houston Astros ML, +148, .75u



updated:
TUES 4/28
Detroit Tigers ML, -136, 1u
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +115, 1u
Boston Red Sox ML, -122, 1u
NY Yankees ML, -108, 1u
Houston Astros ML, +148, .75u



I do like Oakland tonight with Sonny Gray starting, but I don't see a lot of value at -145. If anything I'd actually say the Angels ML at +134 would be a smarter choice, but it's not a hill I'm willing to die on. Oakland's lost 4 straight and I'm not sure what's going on with their guys right now.

The Cubs are intriguing as well. I do think they will win tonight, but I think that's mostly because I have a weird hatred that I can't fully explain for Jeff Locke. He's burned me in fantasy several times and so I have grown to hate him over the last year and a half or so. In truth, the game is pretty much a coin flip. It could go either way.

[terrortwylight]

adding:
NY Mets ML, +119, 1u
Houston Astros ML, +148, .25u (just bumping that play to a full unit to stay flat with the rest of my plays)
LA Dodgers ML, -173, 2.5u



updated:
TUES 4/28
LA Dodgers ML, -173, 2.5u
Detroit Tigers ML, -136, 1u
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +115, 1u
Boston Red Sox ML, -122, 1u
NY Yankees ML, -108, 1u
NY Mets ML, +119, 1u
Houston Astros ML, +148, 1u


YTD:
31-46-5 (-8.28u)


This could really go badly tonight. Just for the record, I am not advising anyone to follow me. Not that I think anyone is in the first place given my record so far.

And what I am doing with the Dodgers is really stupid. Financially it's REALLY NOT a smart move. I'm chasing them, and if they lose I'm doubling the bet the next night until I finally win. I think there's a name for that, Martingale maybe? Not sure. Just for the record, I think MadBum is a great value against any team at +163 ML. But he's having a bit of a time finding his way, as is Kershaw. Last night, I scored big on them. There's a really good chance this loses tonight, and at -173 that's a LOT of juice. So if you were wondering, that's what I'm doing there.

Good luck to everyone no matter what side you play!

[terrortwylight]

adding:
Kansas City Royals ML, +100, .25u *LIVE BET PLACED AT 7:40pm*



updated:
TUES 4/28
LA Dodgers ML, -173, 2.5u
Detroit Tigers ML, -136, 1u
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +115, 1u
Boston Red Sox ML, -122, 1u
NY Yankees ML, -108, 1u
NY Mets ML, +119, 1u
Houston Astros ML, +148, 1u
Kansas City Royals ML, +100, .25u *LIVE BET PLACED AT 7:40pm*



YTD:
31-46-5 (-8.28u)

[terrortwylight]

BoSox falling apart on me.

Shoulda went harder on that live KC bet. Damn.

[2daBank]

I'm on jays but that gm a long way from over man. Doesn't feel like any lead is safe in this one.

[terrortwylight]

TUES 4/28
LA Dodgers ML, -173, 2.5u
Houston Astros ML, +148, 1u
Detroit Tigers ML, -136, 1u (L)
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +115, 1u (L)
Boston Red Sox ML, -122, 1u (L)
NY Yankees ML, -108, 1u (W)
NY Mets ML, +119, 1u (L)
Kansas City Royals ML, +100, .25u *LIVE BET PLACED AT 7:40pm* (W)


DAILY:
2-4-0 (-3.33u)


YTD:
31-46-5 (-8.28u)



If I get LAD things will be (semi) OK. But I probably won't so looks like I'm going to need to keep this LAD chase thing rolling. I'll probably go super light on other games while I do LAD chase thing. I'm kind of regretting even starting this. It felt great to just hit that first one yesterday but this is a dangerous game. You gotta have balls to play that Martingale game.

[2daBank]

Shocked you paid that price to play against madbum.

[terrortwylight]

Just realized that at -173, if a 2.5u bet loses in a "chase" as I understand it, since the loss would actually be 4.33u, I will need "to win" 8.66u on the next one.

LOL I may need to just suck this one up as a loss if it doesn't hit. I'm not about that life.

[terrortwylight]

Shocked you paid that price to play against madbum.

Yeah I know. It was stupid.

If the bet loses I'm not "chasing" it. I still thought the Dodgers would win after capping the game. But the juice was ridiculous.

To this point, MadBum hadn't really found his stroke. But he's dealing tonight. 6 K's. 88 pitches in the 7th. 1 ER. Back to his elite form.

[2daBank]

Yeah I know. It was stupid.

If the bet loses I'm not "chasing" it. I still thought the Dodgers would win after capping the game. But the juice was ridiculous.

I'm not trying to be after the fact on yA ( well during technically), just didn't notice you played it till your last post. When you say "you thought Dodgers would win" do you have a percentage how often in mind? And was it greater than that price suggested? I just couldn't see this as much more than a few points better than a coin flip which obviously isn't in agreement with those odds at all..honestly I figured w that juice Iad prob would win but I didn't really care, still spilt sf ff and gm knowing that cashes at higher rate than they offering..

[terrortwylight]

At least Houston is helping ease the pain of this HUGE loss I'm about to take on LAD..

[terrortwylight]

I'm not trying to be after the fact on yA ( well during technically), just didn't notice you played it till your last post. When you say "you thought Dodgers would win" do you have a percentage how often in mind? And was it greater than that price suggested? I just couldn't see this as much more than a few points better than a coin flip which obviously isn't in agreement with those odds at all..honestly I figured w that juice Iad prob would win but I didn't really care, still spilt sf ff and gm knowing that cashes at higher rate than they offering..

Couldn't honestly tell you I had a percentage in mind. Just went through my usual process of looking at all the games and it was one that stood out to me as a good play. Speaking on pure "value", SF was the value play, IMO. MadBum at +163 ML is a great bet no matter who SF is playing. Live and learn I guess.

[terrortwylight]

Had I jumped in with both feet on that live KC play I would have really eased the pain of this one.

[2daBank]

to me baseball isn't even nessicarily about "picking winners", obviously that the end goal but I feel the only way to be successful is to make the correct percentage plays and trust your process is sound, the rest will take care of itself over time.

[2daBank]

Had I jumped in with both feet on that live KC play I would have really eased the pain of this one.

I kinda expected u to hit them again when they went down 5-3. Prob had pretty good odds then..

[terrortwylight]

Yeah I know I looked at it again and I think it was like KC -175. So I took my foot off the gas. Wishing I would have just jumped in for a full unit when it was +100.

[terrortwylight]

San Diego is offered at +5 -115 LIVE right now.

I dont have the balls but I guarantee you if I would have jammed it I could have made up for this LAD game.

[terrortwylight]

WED 4/29
NY Mets ML, -102, 2u

[terrortwylight]

WED 4/29
NY Mets ML, -102, 2u
Detroit Tigers ML, -105, 2u

[terrortwylight]

WOW good thing I didn't touch that SD+5 Live Bet.

[terrortwylight]

TUES 4/28
LA Dodgers ML, -173, 2.5u (L)
Houston Astros ML, +148, 1u
Detroit Tigers ML, -136, 1u (L)
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +115, 1u (L)
Boston Red Sox ML, -122, 1u (L)
NY Yankees ML, -108, 1u (W)
NY Mets ML, +119, 1u (L)
Kansas City Royals ML, +100, .25u *LIVE BET PLACED AT 7:40pm* (W)


DAILY:
2-5-0 (-7.66u)

As long as 'Stros hit (which they should barring a total meltdown) I should end today at 3-5-0 (-6.18u).

Got to get a handle on this foolishness. I knew I was making a mistake with LAD. No more sillyness like that.

[terrortwylight]

TUES 4/28
LA Dodgers ML, -173, 2.5u (L)
Houston Astros ML, +148, 1u (W)
Detroit Tigers ML, -136, 1u (L)
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +115, 1u (L)
Boston Red Sox ML, -122, 1u (L)
NY Yankees ML, -108, 1u (W)
NY Mets ML, +119, 1u (L)
Kansas City Royals ML, +100, .25u *LIVE BET PLACED AT 7:40pm* (W)


DAILY:
3-5-0 (-6.18u)


YTD:
34-51-5 (-14.46u)


It's a long climb back to profits but I've been doing this a long time. Bases is a grind. I've been looking for shortcuts but there are none.

[2daBank]

14 units not shit. I'm up 10 in dog of day picking 1 dog for a unit. Lots of time to right the ship bro..

[terrortwylight]

14 units not shit. I'm up 10 in dog of day picking 1 dog for a unit. Lots of time to right the ship bro..

Thanks for the optimism bro. I'll need guys like you around for sure to do this right.

[terrortwylight]

WED 4/29
NY Mets ML, -102, 2u
Detroit Tigers ML, -105, 2u


YTD:
34-51-5 (-14.46u)