terrortwylight - 2015 MLB Season Thread

[terrortwylight]

I was about 20 seconds late on getting my Texas Rangers ML and Texas Rangers +1 bets in.

It's either a sign that it wasn't meant to be..

or a sign that I should expect a hellish ride this season.

[terrortwylight]

adding:
LA Dodgers -3, -120, 2u *LIVE BET added at 9:50pm EST*





updated:
SAT 4/25
Colorado Rockies ML, -138, 2u
Colorado Rockies -1, -107, 1u
Colorado Rockies -1.5, +145, .5u
Seattle Mariners -1, -114, 1u
Seattle Mariners -1.5, +140, .5u
LA Dodgers -3, -120, 2u *LIVE BET added at 9:50pm EST*





YTD:
26-31-3 (+6.54u)

[ShowMeDaMoney]

where are you doing live bets?

[terrortwylight]

SAT 4/25
Colorado Rockies ML, -138, 2u (L)
Colorado Rockies -1, -107, 1u (L)
Colorado Rockies -1.5, +145, .5u (L)
Seattle Mariners -1, -114, 1u (L)
Seattle Mariners -1.5, +140, .5u (L)
LA Dodgers -3, -120, 2u *LIVE BET added at 9:50pm EST* (PUSH)



DAILY:
0-5-1 (-8.37)



YTD:
26-36-4 (-1.83u)




I love betting on MLB. But without stellar money management, even an above average handicapper will not make it past the All Star break.

I personally had a difficult couple of days this week. Days like these I do a mental checklist to see where I went wrong so that I can learn from them from an objective level. And when we learn from our mistakes, we become better handicappers.

And with MLB (more than any other popular American sport) you have to bet within your comfort level. I subscribe to the old school theory of 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll.

What is bankroll? Money you have allotted for sports handicapping. NOT money for the car payment and rent. Always approach handicapping like an investment.

Lots of guys track their progress using units or dollars. For me, units is just easier for tracking purposes. The important takeaway from this is that you are not betting more than you can afford to lose.

I find it wise to handicap games for a couple months with no money at stake if you're just starting MLB handicapping. That way when you start playing for real, you'll already have learned from your first couple of inevitable mistakes.

Once you grow your bankroll (and that part is the GRIND), then you increase your unit size. This also works in reverse. If you're bankroll is usually $5k but you hit a cold streak and you find yourself at $4k, decrease your unit size.

If you don't want to maintain a thread, at least keep your bets on a notepad document or something. You'll never figure out what you're doing right or doing wrong if you don't know when you were having success or where you were having problems. This one is the one that I did occasionally but not religiously.

Now, I document all my picks ln SBR threads. These are great because there are a lot of VERY smart people who post here. You will learn a lot if you ask questions and take the information that is provided seriously. Of course, there are also people here that just like to create weird drama and stir shit up, but you will find that on every forum there is. Just ignore them.

So, even though today was a terrible day for me in MLB, I'm not worried. I identified where I went wrong and I will correct the problem. It's a long season, and I want us to all make money.

[terrortwylight]

where are you doing live bets?

5dimes


I make most of my bets with a local guy, but I keep the 5Dimes account primed and ready for live betting and other things that he doesn't offer.

[incognitoh]

Hey Terror,

Since you asked; I will try to contribute to your thread when I can, which will probably be limited to weekends before games and after games on week nights (unfortunately).

I enjoy the discussions, as well, and the different view points from the people you listed, as well as many others on the site.

For Sunday I am going with; Cubs -118, San Fran +118, KC -125, Texas +133 and NY Mets +125.

I would be happy to join in on discussions and the reasons for my picks if anyone is interested...

BOL today!

[terrortwylight]

Hey Terror,

Since you asked; I will try to contribute to your thread when I can, which will probably be limited to weekends before games and after games on week nights (unfortunately).

I enjoy the discussions, as well, and the different view points from the people you listed, as well as many others on the site.

For Sunday I am going with; Cubs -118, San Fran +118, KC -125, Texas +133 and NY Mets +125.

I would be happy to join in on discussions and the reasons for my picks if anyone is interested...

BOL today!

I like Mets today a lot too. I just barely had enough time to cap a few late games today. But definitely stop in with your picks or question me on my picks, whatever. Just to get some knowledge exchange.

[terrortwylight]

SUN 4/26
Arizona Diamondbacks ML, +122, 1u
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -135, 1u
LA Dodgers ML, +117, 1u
LA Dodgers +1, -146, 1u
NY Mets ML, +140, 1u
NY Mets +1.5, -160, 1u
Oakland A's ML, -160, 1u
Oakland A's, -1.5, +130, 1u



YTD:
26-36-4 (-1.83u)

[terrortwylight]

Wish I would have had time to get on these early games.. I woulda thrown at least 2u each on CWS and TB between ML and -1 bets.

[terrortwylight]

adding:
LA Angels +1.5, -110, .5u *LIVE BET added @ 5:05pm EST*




updated:
SUN 4/26
Arizona Diamondbacks ML, +122, 1u
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -135, 1u
LA Dodgers ML, +117, 1u
LA Dodgers +1, -146, 1u
NY Mets ML, +140, 1u
NY Mets +1.5, -160, 1u
Oakland A's ML, -160, 1u
Oakland A's, -1.5, +130, 1u
LA Angels +1.5, -110, .5u *LIVE BET added @ 5:05pm EST*



YTD:
26-36-4 (-1.83u)

[terrortwylight]

SUN 4/26
Arizona Diamondbacks ML, +122, 1u(L)
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -135, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers ML, +117, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers +1, -146, 1u (L)
NY Mets ML, +140, 1u
NY Mets +1.5, -160, 1u
Oakland A's ML, -160, 1u (L)
Oakland A's, -1.5, +130, 1u (L)
LA Angels +1.5, -110, .5u *LIVE BET added @ 5:05pm EST* (W)




DAILY:
1-6-0 (-6.91u)




YTD:
26-36-4 (-1.83u)




Holy shit things are getting rough. I have got to find a rhythm here.

[terrortwylight]

adding:
NY Mets ML, +140, 2u
NY Mets +1.5, -150, 2u


I'm freaking out and chasing at this point. If I lose I deserve it. But I have a backup plan for tomorrow if this doesn't work out.


updated:
SUN 4/26
Arizona Diamondbacks ML, +122, 1u(L)
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -135, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers ML, +117, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers +1, -146, 1u (L)
Oakland A's ML, -160, 1u (L)
Oakland A's, -1.5, +130, 1u (L)
LA Angels +1.5, -110, .5u *LIVE BET added @ 5:05pm EST* (W)
NY Mets ML, +140, 3u
NY Mets +1.5, -150, 2u
NY Mets +1.5, -160, 1u



DAILY:
1-6-0 (-6.91u)




YTD:
26-36-4 (-1.83u)

[terrortwylight]

Nice start!

[RavensFan2k3]

Interested in this backup plan for tomorrow

[terrortwylight]

FUKCCCCCCCCCCCC getting mowed down

[terrortwylight]

Holy shit.. This inning just turned into a shit storm

[terrortwylight]

4 errors? Seriously?

6-4.............

[terrortwylight]

At least Niese made it through 5. Christ.

Heart of the lineup coming up on this MR scrub. We just need to generate some hits.

[terrortwylight]

That's right. Yankee scrub relievers.

[terrortwylight]

Horseshit!

[terrortwylight]

Holy shit. For real?

Eric Campbell loses track of the outs and starts gunning it around the bases on a pop fly to right field.

The Mets. What else was I expecting.

That's fine.

NY Yankees -2, -150, 6u *LIVE BET added at 10:00 pm*

[terrortwylight]

SUN 4/26
Arizona Diamondbacks ML, +122, 1u(L)
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -135, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers ML, +117, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers +1, -146, 1u (L)
Oakland A's ML, -160, 1u (L)
Oakland A's, -1.5, +130, 1u (L)
LA Angels +1.5, -110, .5u *LIVE BET added @ 5:05pm EST* (W)
NY Mets ML, +140, 3u
NY Mets +1.5, -150, 2u
NY Mets +1.5, -160, 1u
NY Yankees -2, -150, 6u *LIVE BET added at 10:00 pm*



DAILY:
1-6-0 (-6.91u)



YTD:
26-36-4 (-1.83u)

[incognitoh]

Hey Terror,

Since you asked; I will try to contribute to your thread when I can, which will probably be limited to weekends before games and after games on week nights (unfortunately).

I enjoy the discussions, as well, and the different view points from the people you listed, as well as many others on the site.

For Sunday I am going with; Cubs -118, San Fran +118, KC -125, Texas +133 and NY Mets +125.

I would be happy to join in on discussions and the reasons for my picks if anyone is interested...

BOL today!

Figures, 2 - 2 with stated plays with SF being postponed. For some reason I didn't list the Padres but I doubled up on the Mets so it is a wash...lol.

[terrortwylight]

SUN 4/26
Arizona Diamondbacks ML, +122, 1u(L)
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -135, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers ML, +117, 1u (L)
LA Dodgers +1, -146, 1u (L)
Oakland A's ML, -160, 1u (L)
Oakland A's, -1.5, +130, 1u (L)
LA Angels +1.5, -110, .5u *LIVE BET added @ 5:05pm EST* (W)
NY Mets ML, +140, 3u (L)
NY Mets +1.5, -150, 2u (L)
NY Mets +1.5, -160, 1u (L)
NY Yankees -2, -150, 6u *LIVE BET added at 10:00 pm* (PUSH)



DAILY:
1-9-1 (-14.51u)



YTD:
27-45-5 (-16.34u)




Tried to hedge that big loss on the Mets with a live Yankees -2 bet to make up for the units. Unfortunately they couldn't even put up one more for me so that just pushed.

I can not remember starting this poorly on an MLB season ever.

The old ways aren't working anymore. I haven't lost confidence in my ability to handicap games. But I am beginning to see the errors in my judgment. This is the first MLB thread I have ever actually maintained on SBR, and I take great pride in MLB being my bread and butter. I think the desire to want to just make a big splash and get noticed is what is actually dragging me down.

I am not in any real danger of losing my bankroll right now. But if I keep having days like this I won't get through May.

I've already capped the games tomorrow, just gonna wait for lineups and check weather again. I'm just going to get back to doing things the way I've always done them.

[terrortwylight]

MON 4/27
Detroit Tigers ML, -154, 2u
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +110, 1u


YTD:
27-45-5 (-16.34u)

It'll be a clear night in Target Field. No chance of precipitation. About 60 degrees. Very slight wind blowing out to right field. Price is a real honest to god ace and he'll spin a gem after his horrendous last start. Minnesota does present some value this season in certain circumstances, but they've yet to find their stroke offensively. Tommy Milone will take his first L tomorrow. Against a team playing like the Tigers are right now, they have no chance. I got on it early because I didn't want to take even more vig on the ML.

[incognitoh]

MON 4/27
Detroit Tigers ML, -154, 2u
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +110, 1u


YTD:
27-45-5 (-16.34u)

It'll be a clear night in Target Field. No chance of precipitation. About 60 degrees. Very slight wind blowing out to right field. Price is a real honest to god ace and he'll spin a gem after his horrendous last start. Minnesota does present some value this season in certain circumstances, but they've yet to find their stroke offensively. Tommy Milone will take his first L tomorrow. Against a team playing like the Tigers are right now, they have no chance. I got on it early because I didn't want to take even more vig on the ML.

I like the play but for me, personally, I am still trying to figure out the best play for high juice (130+). I hate paying the juice for an even game but I haven't had great success with the RL or parlaying with another heavy favorite either...lol.

I think I will join you on the RL on this one since Detroit is on the road and Minnesota is not a great team, although Milone has been pitching well.

[terrortwylight]

Yeah, I've been typically playing ML and RL on each game I pick, and that's been my issue.

Had I just played ML on most of the games, I wouldn't be negative $800 before May.. lol..

But like I said, I'm going to get back to the way I normally operate. Which is typically fewer games, less units per game, and mostly ML. I'll play occasional runlines on games I feel very strongly about, but not every single one.

I should be having positive days from here on out.

[2daBank]

i personally hate rls and it really rare i play them. to do so i need several things to be working all in unison,, i need a redic pitching mismatch, a gm where i expect a good number of runs, a pen that i can trust not to screw me and give up a few late before closing out (my biggest worry with det). more times than not if i have my heart set on a play over -150 (which kinda rare) generally the only way ill play is splitting rl/ml giving yourself better odds than the books offer on -1. or ill find something else i like and do 2 team parlays as i think there absolutely a place for them in bases more than any other sport. this time of year i really like using a nhl playoff team im confident in as my 2nd team (like blackhawks at home all last series and im sure the upcoming series vs minny)..

[terrortwylight]

i personally hate rls and it really rare i play them. to do so i need several things to be working all in unison,, i need a redic pitching mismatch, a gm where i expect a good number of runs, a pen that i can trust not to screw me and give up a few late before closing out (my biggest worry with det). more times than not if i have my heart set on a play over -150 (which kinda rare) generally the only way ill play is splitting rl/ml giving yourself better odds than the books offer on -1. or ill find something else i like and do 2 team parlays as i think there absolutely a place for them in bases more than any other sport. this time of year i really like using a nhl playoff team im confident in as my 2nd team (like blackhawks at home all last series and im sure the upcoming series vs minny)..

Interesting insight, especially coming from you. I do like -1 a hell of a lot more than -1.5.

I've never been a fan of parlays because I've never had success with them. Rarely do they ever actually work out for me.

[2daBank]

Interesting insight, especially coming from you. I do like -1 a hell of a lot more than -1.5.

I've never been a fan of parlays because I've never had success with them. Rarely do they ever actually work out for me.

yea but better to do yourself with rl/ml combo which essentially same thing but gives you little more value than what books charge for the -1 line..

[terrortwylight]

adding:
LA Dodgers ML, -134, 5u


updated:
MON 4/27
Detroit Tigers ML, -154, 2u
Detroit Tigers -1.5, +110, 1u
LA Dodgers ML, -134, 5u


YTD:
27-45-5 (-16.34u)

[terrortwylight]

yea but better to do yourself with rl/ml combo which essentially same thing but gives you little more value than what books charge for the -1 line..

OH yeah I see where you're coming from now. Yeah that is a smart move I will definitely start doing it that way.

[2daBank]

Interesting insight, especially coming from you. I do like -1 a hell of a lot more than -1.5.

I've never been a fan of parlays because I've never had success with them. Rarely do they ever actually work out for me.

far as the parlays i absolutely understand and certainly not suggesting they a great idea. this time of year tho i generally have a nhl or nba ml that im pretty confident in so they do tend to allow me the luxury of parlaying a expensive baseball fav and making the payout much more favorable.. like yesterday i did cavs ml with pads. used blackhawks at home parlayed with virtually every bet i made sat (granted hawks had me scared to death down 3-1 when i went into the movie theater, pleasant surprise when i came out! lol)..

[terrortwylight]

hahahaha that's the best when you go into a movie with your girl and then you come out, check your phone.

either you get AMPED out of nowhere or you look like someone just told you your mother was murdered.

[terrortwylight]

I really want to play the Cubs game tonight. All the indicators are telling me it's a good play. But that Pirates 5 game winning streak scares me a little bit. Worley is walking a lot of guys, control doesn't appear to be there yet, so my gut is telling me the Cubbies will knock him around early with the weather conditions (cold and windy). Maybe a first 5 innings play?

Does anyone have any thoughts on that game?