DFoster 2009 MLB thread

DFoster · 04-06-09, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by SportsChic

I was hoping you could comment on my question regarding the Reds and Mets Run Line bet. I am thinking of putting a bet in for the Reds +1.5 runs due to my belief that the line seems a bit odd. It currently has the Mets run line at a +105 and the Reds at -125. With ace Santana on the mound with a more potent offense behind him, wouldnt you think that this should be a bit higher? Im thinking bookies want the public to pound the mets runline only to have this stay a close game. Can you please give me your thoughts on this? Thank you!

That could be possible but I really like the Mets to win by 2 or more here. In their 7 games in 2008, the Mets went 4-3. Not 1 of those 7 games were decided by one run and all but 1 of those games totaled 8 runs or more. I don't see the trap here as Santana has been solid throughout the spring and is obviously one of the best starters in baseball. I think Harang's off season weight loss is being blown out of proportion as he struggled through spring with a line eerily similar to his below average 2008 season. I like the Reds this year and think they out perform some expectations but I don't see them taking down the Mets today.

NYM -1.5 - 2 units
NYM/CIN 7.5 Over - 1 unit

SportsChic · 04-06-09, 10:31 AM

Interesting...well if you are right, it would be a great bet taking the runline at +105..Im going to see if it moves at all

DFoster · 04-06-09, 12:01 PM

Current picks:

NYM -1.5 RL +105 - 2 units
NYM/CIN 7.5R over +105 - 1 unit
PIT ML +155 - 1 unit
SD -1.5 RL +170 - 1 unit

More detailed explanations here with more to be added as the day goes on.

DFoster · 04-06-09, 01:16 PM

Added:

1 unit parlay to win 1.87 units:
STL/PIT 7.5 under with NYY ML -200

blowseq · 04-06-09, 02:34 PM

we are following you D.
have a great season

DFoster · 04-06-09, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by blowseq

we are following you D.
have a great season

Sounds good. Hopefully we make big money. Good luck!

SportsChic · 04-06-09, 03:15 PM

Hey D...its gonna be close here in the end of this NYM game...I just need 3 outs without a score, and you need the score....good luck!

DFoster · 04-06-09, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by SportsChic

Hey D...its gonna be close here in the end of this NYM game...I just need 3 outs without a score, and you need the score....good luck!

Ha, I was thinking the same thing a minute ago. Good luck...well maybe not

SportsChic · 04-06-09, 03:19 PM

LOL...I know! GL ---Sike

DFoster · 04-06-09, 04:56 PM

NYM -1.5RL +105 - LOSS 2 units
NYM/CIN 7.5O - LOSS 1 unit

Tough break on the run line. The Mets had a ton of chances to break the game wide open and failed each and every time. David Wright was thrown out at home on a terrible decision by the 3rd base coach which eliminated a possible huge inning. Oh well...it's a long season.

Lets go PIT!

DFoster · 04-06-09, 07:21 PM

PIT came through...

Last play of the day:

ANA -135 - 1.5 units

DFoster · 04-06-09, 09:20 PM

NYM -1.5 - 2 units - LOSS
NYM/CIN 7.5 Over - 1 unit - LOSS - 1 unit
PIT ML +155 - 1 unit -WIN +1.55 units
SD -1.5 RL +170 - 1 unit - LOSS - 1 unit
STL/PIT 7.5 under with NYY ML -200 - LOSS -1 unit
ANA -135 - 1.5 units - TBD

4-4, 50%, +.41 units overall after a rough day...hopefully ANA finishes off Oakland

Kav · 04-06-09, 09:21 PM

padres offense sucks ass, wow words cant describe...

DFoster · 04-06-09, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by Kav

padres offense sucks ass, wow words cant describe...

Yeah, I know they're terrible but I expected Peavy to dominate this game.

2 mistakes today:

1. Betting an over on the CIN/NYM game before checking the weather...won't happen again

2. Betting a run line with the Padres...especially when they're the home team and would have 8 at bats compared to the road team's 9.

I was excited for the season to start and looked at what I thought was everything but left those two important details out. I guess hindsight is always 20/20. The season is long and bad breaks and a few bad picks will happen.

DFoster · 04-06-09, 10:57 PM

NYM -1.5 - 2 units - LOSS
NYM/CIN 7.5 Over - 1 unit - LOSS - 1 unit
PIT ML +155 - 1 unit -WIN +1.55 units
SD -1.5 RL +170 - 1 unit - LOSS - 1 unit
STL/PIT 7.5 under with NYY ML -200 - LOSS -1 unit
ANA -135 - 1.5 units - WIN +1.11 units

5-4, 55.56%, +1.52 units overall after a rough opening day...

DFoster · 04-07-09, 12:06 PM

Today's plays:

BOS ML -145 - 2 units
MIL/SF 7R over -120 - 2 units

More to come. I would have posted earlier but I've been incredibly busy...

DFoster · 04-07-09, 12:43 PM

Adding:

ARI -153 - 1.5 units
ATL -103 - 1.5 units

DFoster · 04-07-09, 03:21 PM

1 unit parlay add:

ARI ML, OAK/LAA 9 over, LAD ML, STL/PIT 8.5 over, STL ML

1 unit to win 16.79 units

DFoster · 04-07-09, 04:11 PM

Adding:

MIN ML -112 - 1 unit

I love the splits on this one. Bedard could come out and dominate like he used to but he didn't during spring training and said he felt great. Minnesota gets some revenge here and takes SEA down.

FLA RL -1.5 +135 - 1.5 units

I like FLA this year and think they're going to be undervalued early this year. Olsen, who was hated by his former team, is throwing and I can see the Marlins jumping on him early.

So a list of plays for tonight currently:

BOS ML -145 - 2 units
MIL/SF 7R over -120 - 2 units
FLA RL -1.5 +135 - 1.5 units
MIN ML -112 - 1 unit
ARI -153 - 1.5 units
ATL -103 - 1.5 units
1 unit parlay --- ARI ML, OAK/LAA 9 over, LAD ML, STL/PIT 8.5 over, STL ML

DFoster · 04-07-09, 11:04 PM

BOS ML -145 - 2 units - WIN 1.38
MIL/SF 7R over -120 - 2 units - WIN 1.67
FLA RL -1.5 +135 - 1.5 units - WIN 2.03
MIN ML -112 - 1 unit - WIN .89
ARI -153 - 1.5 units - pending
ATL -103 - 1.5 units - WIN 1.46
1 unit parlay --- ARI ML, OAK/LAA 9 over, LAD ML, STL/PIT 8.5 over, STL ML - pending

So far the night has gone 5-0 +7.43 units...hopefully I'll cash my last two.

DFoster · 04-08-09, 10:19 AM

BOS ML -145 - 2 units - WIN 1.38
MIL/SF 7R over -120 - 2 units - WIN 1.67
FLA RL -1.5 +135 - 1.5 units - WIN 2.03
MIN ML -112 - 1 unit - WIN .89
ARI -153 - 1.5 units - LOSS 1.5
ATL -103 - 1.5 units - WIN 1.46
1 unit parlay --- ARI ML, OAK/LAA 9 over, LAD ML, STL/PIT 8.5 over, STL ML - LOSS

Last night went 5-1 on plays, 0-1 on my first parlay...solid night. Had ARI won, I would have run the board with a 7-0 night...stupid Diamondbacks.

SportsChic · 04-08-09, 10:26 AM

Very nice job D...what are you on today? Im liking the Marlins early...

DFoster · 04-08-09, 10:51 AM

FLA -1.5 RL +135 --- 2 units
TOR ML -132 --- 2 units
TB ML +129 --- 1.5 units
BAL ML +151 --- 1.5 units
CLE ML -119 --- 2 units
MIN -1.5 RL +125 --- 2 units
LAA ML -103 --- 1 unit
MIL ML -116 --- 1 unit

I'm currently doing write ups on the games, explanations for each pick, and more HERE

DFoster · 04-08-09, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by SportsChic

Very nice job D...what are you on today? Im liking the Marlins early...

I definitely like the Marlins tonight...they've looked great and I don't see Cabrera shutting anyone down with his control problems.

SportsChic · 04-08-09, 10:57 AM

I also went with a prop bet..marlins to score first (even)..just looked really good.

DFoster · 04-08-09, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by SportsChic

I also went with a prop bet..marlins to score first (even)..just looked really good.

Volstad came out flat. I'm hoping he picks it up here...

DFoster · 04-08-09, 02:26 PM

Marlins win on a close one. I'll take it but I was pretty sure they Marlins were going to blow my 2 unit RL pick. Either way, I'll take the win

DFoster · 04-08-09, 11:10 PM

FLA -1.5 RL +135 --- 2 units - WIN
TOR ML -132 --- 2 units - LOSS
TB ML +129 --- 1.5 units - WIN
BAL ML +151 --- 1.5 units - WIN
CLE ML -119 --- 2 units - LOSS
MIN -1.5 RL +125 --- 2 units - LOSS (1 run game...)
LAA ML -103 --- 1 unit - pending
MIL ML -116 --- 1 unit - pending

Decent night at best currently. I really thought strongly on a couple of teams but I'm pleased that 3 of my 4 dog picks won. I guess we'll see on LAA and MIL, both look good currently. I'll post my record sometime tomorrow morning with some possible leans for tomorrow.

DFoster · 04-09-09, 10:04 AM

Looks like I went 4-4 yesterday for +.86 units...not a good day but I'll never complain about a positive unit day. I had a couple of tough breaks in the Minnesota game with them winning by 1 when I had the run line. The Angels game was ugly with Fuentes blowing the save. With them giving up 6 runs in the last two innings, the loss is hard to take.

FLA -1.5 RL +135 --- 2 units - WIN
TOR ML -132 --- 2 units - LOSS
TB ML +129 --- 1.5 units - WIN
BAL ML +151 --- 1.5 units - WIN
CLE ML -119 --- 2 units - LOSS
MIN -1.5 RL +125 --- 2 units - LOSS (1 run game...)
LAA ML -103 --- 1 unit - LOSS
MIL ML -116 --- 1 unit - WIN

Today's picks are on their way. Reviewing splits, etc right now.

DFoster · 04-09-09, 11:03 AM

Minnesota -133 ML --- 1.5 units
Perkins vs Washburn

St. Louis +100 RL -1.5R --- 2 units
Carpenter vs. Ohlendorf

Tampa Bay/Boston 8.5 Under --- 2 units
Garza vs. Matsuzaka

Baltimore ML +167 --- 1.5 units

I think I may start posting 1 parlay a day as well for 1 unit to see my record/units at year end:

MIN ML, BOS ML, NYY ML, STL RL, LAD ML, MIL ML
1 unit to win 28.52 units

DFoster · 04-09-09, 02:32 PM

This could be a rough day...apparently Jarrod Washburn is now trying to be Sandy Koufax by shutting out the Twins. Carpenter was no hitting the Pirates and still losing 1-0. Tampa Bay/Bos have put up 4 runs through 5, so this one is going to be close. BAL is playing NY tight...crossing my fingers. Really I'll be stoked if i go 2-2 today after the start of these games.

DFoster · 04-13-09, 12:01 PM

PHI Phillies ML -116 over Washington --- 2.5 units
Jamie Moyer vs Daniel Cabrera

CHI White Sox +102 over Detroit --- 3 units
Gavin Floyd vs Zach Miner

SF Giants +166 over LA Dodgers --- 1.5 units
Randy Johnson vs Chad Billingsley

KC Royals -127 over CLE Indians --- 1.5 units
Zach Greinke vs Fausto Carmona

Parlay pick:
1 unit to win 28.50 units

BAL/TEX 10.5 Under, CHW/DET 9 under, PITT ML, TOR/MIN 8.5 under, BOS ML, TB ML

jellobiafra · 04-13-09, 02:14 PM

Nice to see you doing well here D. Keep it up. Love the KC pick, by the way. One of my favorites today as well. BOL.

DFoster · 04-13-09, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Nice to see you doing well here D. Keep it up. Love the KC pick, by the way. One of my favorites today as well. BOL.

Thanks. This is really my first season betting on sports. I've dabbled here and there in college but have always loved baseball and have really taken a strong interest in all of the intricacies of sports betting. I'm hoping it continues to go well. I started a blog to track my plays, comments, reasoning, etc. as it seems some of my friends are getting into it as well and find it pretty interesting.

It seems that my parlay lost immediately with the CHW/DET game going well over...Oh well, I'm keeping track of those seperately to see if I can make them profitable throughout the season.

DFoster · 04-13-09, 04:58 PM

I had a nice start with the White Sox win and what appears to be a Philly win but my big underdog in SF will not be coming through tonight...what a terrible start to that game. Oh well, 2-1 isn't terrible considering they were my two largest plays of the night.