MLB FADE THE PUBLIC 5-GAME CHASE (risk .0075% of bankroll, then 75% of loss martingal

[HappyKane]

2 fade the public plays for Tuesday, June 17:

CHASE 21, 2nd of 5
White Sox +110
$88 to win $96.80

CHASE 22, 1st of 5
Athletics +101
$ 50 to win $50.50

[AceofSP2107]

Good luck , like the stlye .. Check that site out before

[HappyKane]

2-0 on Tuesday brings the YTD record to 22-0. Up $805.32.

3 "fade the public" plays for Wednesday:

PHI 25% R. Hernandez C-
ATL 75% A. Harang C+

CHC 34% J. Arrietta B+
MIA 66% N. Eovaldi C-

MIL 87% M. Garza B+
ARI 13% W. Miley B+

[HappyKane]

Philadelphia is no longer a qualified play. Too big of an underdog; filtering out underdogs that are +150 and above.

Locking in:

CHASE 23, 1st of 5
Cubs +110
$50 to win $55

[HappyKane]

Cubs a winner!

Locking in:

CHASE 24, 1st of 5
Diamondbacks -101
$56 to win $55.45

[HappyKane]

2-0 on Wednesday brings the YTD record to 24-0. Up $915.77.

2 "fade the public" qualifiers for Thursday:

SEA 61% E. Ramirez B+
SD 39% J. Hahn B+

BOS 34% J. Peavy C-
OAK 66% S. Kazmir C-

Potential plays on the Padres and Red Sox.

[HappyKane]

Update:

3 "fade the public" qualifiers for Thursday:

SEA 64% E. Ramirez B+
SD 36% J. Hahn B+

TOR 64% D. Hutchinson C+
NYY 36% D. Phelps C-

BOS 25% J. Peavy C-
OAK 75% S. Kazmir C-

Potential plays on the Padres, Yankees and Red Sox.

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 25, 1st of 5
Padres -122
$58 to win $47.54

[HappyKane]

Yes.

Locking in:

CHASE 26, 1st of 5
Yankees +100
$55 to win $55

[HappyKane]

2-0 on Thursday brings the YTD record to 26-0. Up $1018.31.

1 potential "fade the public" play for Friday:

PHI 27% A.J. Burnett C-
STL 73% J. Garcia C-

A.J. Burnett is so soft this year; probably worst season of his career so far. A healthy Jaime Garcia is on a roll and looks unbeatable. What can go wrong?

[HappyKane]

Update: 2 potential "fade the public" plays for Friday, June 20: BAL 32% U. Jimenez C- NYY 68% H. Kuroda B+/C+ PHI 27% A.J. Burnett C- STL 73% J. Garcia C- The magic formula: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ai8y0VjQSNzcdFdjdTlUR1RhQlJDdTE4dTBaOXBMakE&usp=drive_web#gid=0 Bookmark it! The key: COOL COLORS = good and/or lucky ratings WARM COLORS = bad and/or unlucky ratings The qualifier: any good rating versus a bad rating, plus the market must have 59% or more action on the pitcher with the bad rating. The filter: No plays on underdogs priced +150 or above. The mojo!

[HappyKane]

Update:

3 potential "fade the public" plays for Friday, June 20:

BAL 32% U. Jimenez C-
NYY 68% H. Kuroda B+/C+

TOR 31% L. Hendricks C-
CIN 69% M. Latos B+

PHI 27% A.J. Burnett C-
STL 73% J. Garcia C-

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 27, 1st of 5
Orioles +142
$60 to win $85.20

Toronto is no longer a qualified play. The markets favor the Reds but not at the magic number of 59% and above.

Philadelphia is also no longer a play. Cardinals side is steaming and the Phillies are too big of an underdog now -- +162 at 5Dimes.

Yankees side steamed to -152 with an opening line of @ -120. Ubaldo can't buy a win at home but lets see what he can do here on the road.

[keel44]

My question is why does this seem to be profitable? Is it that the public don't know what it thinks it knows?
Why so careful parameters?

[HappyKane]

0-1 on Friday night brings the YTD record to 26-0. Up $958.31.

2 potential "fade the public" plays for Saturday.

BAL 66% B. Norris A
NYY 34% V. Nuno C+/B+

BOS R. De La Rosa C-
OAK J. Chavez B-


Locking in:

CHASE 27, 2nd of 5
Yankees -110
$105 to win $95.45

[HappyKane]

BOS R. 42 %De La Rosa C-
OAK 58% J. Chavez B-

No longer a qualified play on the Red Sox.

[posey]

My question is why does this seem to be profitable? Is it that the public don't know what it thinks it knows?
Why so careful parameters?

I think he uses stats to back up his leans and can make "profit" because the market influences the line. But that's only guessing.

[HappyKane]

0-1 on Saturday brings the YTD record to 26-0. Up $853.31.

CHASE 27 will go to 3rd try out of 5.

3 possible "fade the public" plays for Sunday.

HOU 69% D. Keuchel B+
TB 31% E. Bedard C

PIT 37% B. Cumpton B
CHC 63% J. Hammel C+/B+

SF 84% M. Bumgarner B+/C+
ARI 16% M. Bolsinger A+

Possible plays on the Rays, Pirates and Diamondbacks.

It will be tough to pull the trigger on the Diamondbacks but have to keep the faith in the system. Maybe we'll have a surprising pitchers duel in Chase Field. Under 8 should also be a solid play if Bolsinger can pitch like his mojo rating suggest.

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 27, 3rd of 5
Rays -121
$185 to win $152.89

[HappyKane]

CHASE 28, 1st of 5
Pirates +110
$50 to win $55

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 29, 1st of 5
Diamondbacks +128
$45 to win $57.60

[HappyKane]

2-1 on Sunday brings the YTD record to 28-0. Up $1,016.20.

No play(s) for Monday, June 23.

[HappyKane]

Never mind. Just re-checked the percentages at:

http://www.thespread.com/mlb-baseball-public-betting-chart#.U6hCK0A6KSr

We do have one qualified "fade the public" play today.

MIA 39% N. Eovaldi C-
PHI 61% R. Hernandez B-

Will wait until @ 3 PM EST to pull the trigger.

[keel44]

No Cubs today? I don't understand the pitcher ratings.

[HappyKane]

Its a play.

CHASE 29, 2nd of 5
Marlins -101
$80 to win $79.21

[HappyKane]

1-0 on Monday brings the YTD record to 29-0. Up $1,095.41.

The usual 15 games on Tuesday and it looks like there is no qualified "fade the public" play.

According to my mojo system the best play on the board might be the Washington Nationals. Play at your own risk.

[HappyKane]

Here is what we're looking at for Wednesday, June 25:

STL 68% M. Gonzales C+
COL 32% Y. Flande B+

MIA 58% H. Alvarez C+
PHI 42% A.J. Burnett C+

BOS 37% C. Buccholz B+
SEA 63% H. Iwakuma A

3 possible plays on the Rockies, Phillies and Red Sox. Rockies and Red Sox are definite plays. Need 59% or more on Miami for Philadelphia to qualify as a play.

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 30, 1st of 5
Rockies +123
$60 to win $73.80

[HappyKane]

Rockies a loser. So here goes:

CHASE 30, 2nd of 5
Red Sox +124
$105 to win $130.20

[HappyKane]

1-1 on Wednesday brings the YTD record to 30-0. Up $1,165.61.

Here is what we're looking at for Thursday:

DET 68% R. Porcello C-
TEX 32% N. Martinez B+/C+

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 31, 1st of 5
Rangers +106
$62 to win $65.72

[chosen4th]

1-1 on Wednesday brings the YTD record to 30-0. Up $1,165.61.

Here is what we're looking at for Thursday:

DET 68% R. Porcello C-
TEX 32% N. Martinez B+/C+

I like your picks and youve made a ton betting small amounts... Your not 30-0 though, im confused why you put that up

[HappyKane]

0-1 on Thursday brings the YTD record to 30-0. Up $1,103.61.

2 qualfiers for "fade the public plays" for Friday:

Game 1
TB 19% A. Colome C-
BAL 81% K. Gausman C-

CLE 35% T. Bauer B+
SEA 65% C. Young B+

[HappyKane]

I like your picks and youve made a ton betting small amounts... Your not 30-0 though, im confused why you put that up

Its a 5-game CHASE system.

Start out betting about .0075% of your bankroll. If a bet lose, you multiply 75% against the loss. Add the 75% and the 1st loss and thats how much you bet on the 2nd try. Same procedure after losses until the 5th try.

You don't fully double-up because most picks will be on unpopular underdogs.

Bets have to go 0-5 to count as a loss.

Going 0-5 on a chase will have a total risk of about 15% on your bankroll.

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 31, 2nd of 5
Rays +128
$110 to win $140.80