I just looked up the stats for the 49ers in 2003. It was fine. I think you got the wrong year so I looked up 2002. That one has a streak of 8 if you include the push in week 14. When looking at the results it is important to note just how close some of these losing bets were to the mark. In week 10 they were -5 vs KC. They won 17-13. In week 13 they were -8.5 and won by 7. They then pushed in week 14. These results are very close to expectation and will not invoke much of a reaction from the public. With my teaser strategy I was looking not just if they won or lost to the spread, but by how much. I am thinking a similar filter can be created for this situation. I am using Goldsheet to backtest this. I just completed 2007. I can only go back to 2001 so I can not check to see what happened with the Ravens other then to read articles and see what public expectations of the team were. So far my results are encouraging. I think it is simply a matter of creating filters. Will it be fool proof? There is a saying "If you create something that is foolproof God will create a better fool".
Pendulum Cycle Theory: MLB chase experiment
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arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#316Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#317Overall Record: 4-6
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $4102
Goal: $7200 20% ROI
DET Tigers -170 $765 to win $450Comment -
FabesSBR Rookie
- 07-28-14
- 5
#318I just looked up the stats for the 49ers in 2003. It was fine. I think you got the wrong year so I looked up 2002. That one has a streak of 8 if you include the push in week 14. When looking at the results it is important to note just how close some of these losing bets were to the mark. In week 10 they were -5 vs KC. They won 17-13. In week 13 they were -8.5 and won by 7. They then pushed in week 14. These results are very close to expectation and will not invoke much of a reaction from the public. With my teaser strategy I was looking not just if they won or lost to the spread, but by how much. I am thinking a similar filter can be created for this situation. I am using Goldsheet to backtest this. I just completed 2007. I can only go back to 2001 so I can not check to see what happened with the Ravens other then to read articles and see what public expectations of the team were. So far my results are encouraging. I think it is simply a matter of creating filters. Will it be fool proof? There is a saying "If you create something that is foolproof God will create a better fool".Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#319Both bets lose. We are now on tier two for the underdog and tier
three for the over/under. NYY/TEX was 12-11. This is just too
irresistible so I am jumping ship on OAK.
Today's bets:
Underdog Chase
TEX
+125$21.34
O/U Chase
TEX
U/9 -115$85.77 Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#320Thank you for your encouraging words and your research. My database does not go back as far as yours so it is nice to be able to hear about this. I would not have known about the Ravens in 1999 had you not told me. I can now go back and look ant the surrounding circumstances and see if there was a tell-tale sign. In the case of the 6 game losing streak last year with Houston I do not think I could have avoided it. They had such high expectations going into the season and then just melted down completely. I think we could have a situation like that this year with the Browns but we will have to wait and see. Will Johnny football be the answer to their drought or will the NFL give him a reality check? Too many rookie QBs have been coming out and having success right off in recent years. It has become somewhat of an expectation these days. Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, RGIII, etc. Rookies used to sit on the bench for years before they got to play. I think this is a curious anomaly that could create overvalued and unrealistic expectations of rookie QBs entering the NFL. Just a thought.Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#321Both bets cover. It looks like the Rangers have a day off today
so I will try to reel one in with the Astros. Interesting, must be a
Texas thing. lol
Today's Plays:
Underdog Chase
HOU
+107$9.35
O/U
SD
U/7.5 +105$9.52 Comment -
FabesSBR Rookie
- 07-28-14
- 5
#322Thank you for your encouraging words and your research. My database does not go back as far as yours so it is nice to be able to hear about this. I would not have known about the Ravens in 1999 had you not told me. I can now go back and look ant the surrounding circumstances and see if there was a tell-tale sign. In the case of the 6 game losing streak last year with Houston I do not think I could have avoided it. They had such high expectations going into the season and then just melted down completely. I think we could have a situation like that this year with the Browns but we will have to wait and see. Will Johnny football be the answer to their drought or will the NFL give him a reality check? Too many rookie QBs have been coming out and having success right off in recent years. It has become somewhat of an expectation these days. Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, RGIII, etc. Rookies used to sit on the bench for years before they got to play. I think this is a curious anomaly that could create overvalued and unrealistic expectations of rookie QBs entering the NFL. Just a thought.Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#323Overall Record: 4-7
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $3337
Goal: $7200 20% ROI
WAS Nats -190 $1330 to win $700Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#324Overall Record: 4-8
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $2007
Ouch These results are no where near what they should be, the first game of the series hit well over 78% for the last 4 years. ohh well. All in.
2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1204
Det Tigers & Clev Indians
2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1254
LA Dodgers & OAK A's
Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#325Both bets lose so we are on tier 2 for both today.
Underdog Chase
HOU
-101$29.64
O/U Chase
PHI
U/7.5 -110$32.47 Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#326Overall Record: 4-8
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $2007
Ouch These results are no where near what they should be, the first game of the series hit well over 78% for the last 4 years. ohh well. All in.
2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1204
Det Tigers & Clev Indians
2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1254
LA Dodgers & OAK A's
Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#327Both bets cover. The underdog chase is wrapping up. I am on bet
99 today. I need 100 bets to hit 40%. If I do not win on bet 100 I
will switch to a straight martingale instead of a grand martingale.
I am on bet 91 with the over/under so I have a little over a week to
go on that one if all goes well.
Today's Plays:
Underdog Chase
TEX
+135$7.41
O/U
CLE
U/9 -113$11.30 Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#328Overall Record: 4-8
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $2007
Ouch These results are no where near what they should be, the first game of the series hit well over 78% for the last 4 years. ohh well. All in.
2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1204
Det Tigers & Clev Indians
2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1254
LA Dodgers & OAK A's
Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#329Overall Record: 6-10
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $2207
2 team parlay: $737 to win $921
LA Dodgers & OAK A's
WAS Nats -200 $1470 to win $735
Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#330Underdog loses, under bet wins. Today is bet 100 on the underdog
chase. Hopefully it wins
Today's Plays:
Underdog Chase
TEX
-112$30.70
O/U Chase
DET
U/8.5 -120$12.00 Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#331Overall Record: 9-10
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $3863
If I am going to meet this goal I need to add another system to increase plays.
ATL/SD Under 6.5 $385 to win $350
Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#332Arp could you also post what number your bet is, since you do not post a balance. I know the underdog is about to wrap things up.Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#333The underdog loses and under bet wins. I have passed bet 100 in
the underdog chase so now I am trying to recover what I lost plus $20 in
a standard martingale. If I can cover before busting the
experiment was a success. Hopefully I can cover today, but I have
quite a bit in reserves to go several tiers if needed.
The O/U experiment is drawing to a close too. I am on the 93rd
bet today, so that has about another week to hit bet 100, then
however many bets needed to conclude the final chase.
Was looking to bet MIN on the under because they scored 16 runs
last night. They are not playing so I took the opponent in that
game; CWS.
Today's Plays:
Underdog Chase
TEX
+130
$44.70
O/U Chase
CWS
U/9.5 -120
$12.00
Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#334I was lazy with the balance since this experiment was a grand martingale. As long as the system does not bust I simply must multiply each bet placed by $10. Those numbers are posted in today's picks. When the experiment concludes I am going to post the entire body of work along with analysis of what I think happened. I did the o/u experiment on the same chart as the underdog experiment so I will wait until both experiments conclude before I post the final analysis.Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
-
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#336Overall Record: 9-11
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $3478
CHI Sox -145 $725 to win $500
OAK A's -145 $725 to win $500
Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#337TEX loses again. The under wins.
It is 1:00 am and I am putting my bets in. The numbers could
change by the time I wake up.
Today's Plays:
Underdog Chase
TEX
+120$85.68
O/U Chase
MIL
U/8 -110$11.00 Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#338Overall Record: 11-11
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $4478
WAS Nats -150 $750 to win $500
STL Cards -150 $750 to win $500
Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#339Look at this shit!!!! You are scrapping your way back into it brother! Meanwhile the Rangers are making me fight for that last $20. Keep 'em coming.Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#340I guess there are some advantages to placing your bet at 1:00am. I got TEX at +120 last night. I just checked and they are +101 now. Now if they can just win. :PComment -
keel44SBR MVP
- 08-01-09
- 3363
#341Sorry Barstool, I just don't like either bet. There is just too much juice for those teams. I hope you get'em, but you gotta get them both. Any reasons for these plays?Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#342The underdog chase is officially a success!!!! It took 102 bets
and I made a $1,000 return against a $3,000 bankroll for a 40% ROI.
At no point during this experiment did I ever go over $1,000. That
is pretty impressive. That means I could have gone into this with a
bankroll of $1,000 and had a 100% ROI for the season. I like a big
safety net so I am quite happy with 40%. The over/under is
wrapping up. Today's post will be the 95th bet. I will
post my full analysis and complete log of both experiments once this
one wraps up.
O/U Chase
TEX
U/7.5 -105
$10.50
Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#343Overall Record: 12-12
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $4228
WAS Nats -160 $1235 to win $772
Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#344Overall Record: 13-12
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $5000
Crawling back into this. Need to get it done in the next 10-15 days.
Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#345The under covers. I took PHI today even though COL scored more
and the under is higher. The decision to take PHI was based on the
-120 on the under as opposed to the -105 on the 10.5 for COL. This
tells me the expectation for PHI to go under is higher.
Today's Play:
O/U Chase
PHI
U/8 -120$12.00 Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#346Overall Record: 13-12
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $5000
OAK A's -275 $1375 to win $500
Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#347Comment -
BarstoolProphetSBR MVP
- 06-05-14
- 1151
#348Check your mail arp, sorry for getting back to you so late.Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#349I guess there was a pitching change. I got on Betdsi expecting
that I had lost the bet to find I got my money back. Okay, I'll take
it.
I am taking SEA today because they scored 13 last night. The
total is really low at 6.5 but the juice is high at -120. Since
yesterday's game resulted in a “no play” I am going to up the bet
to $24.00 to keep the grand martingale going.
O/U Chase
SEA
U/6.5 -120$12.00 Comment -
arpeggiomeisterSBR MVP
- 05-23-08
- 1015
#350Under bet covers. Going with BAL today. This is bet #98. This
experiment is drawing to a close. Hopefully I can keep the winning
streak up and not have to chase past 100, but I shouldn't ask for too
much. The simple fact that this has been working should be enough.
O/U Chase
BAL
U/8.5 -110$11.00 Comment
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