Pendulum Cycle Theory: MLB chase experiment

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  • arpeggiomeister
    SBR MVP
    • 05-23-08
    • 1015

    #316
    I just looked up the stats for the 49ers in 2003. It was fine. I think you got the wrong year so I looked up 2002. That one has a streak of 8 if you include the push in week 14. When looking at the results it is important to note just how close some of these losing bets were to the mark. In week 10 they were -5 vs KC. They won 17-13. In week 13 they were -8.5 and won by 7. They then pushed in week 14. These results are very close to expectation and will not invoke much of a reaction from the public. With my teaser strategy I was looking not just if they won or lost to the spread, but by how much. I am thinking a similar filter can be created for this situation. I am using Goldsheet to backtest this. I just completed 2007. I can only go back to 2001 so I can not check to see what happened with the Ravens other then to read articles and see what public expectations of the team were. So far my results are encouraging. I think it is simply a matter of creating filters. Will it be fool proof? There is a saying "If you create something that is foolproof God will create a better fool".
    Comment
    • BarstoolProphet
      SBR MVP
      • 06-05-14
      • 1151

      #317
      Overall Record: 4-6

      Starting Bankroll: $6000


      Current Bankroll: $4102

      Goal: $7200 20% ROI


      DET Tigers -170
      $765 to win $450
      Comment
      • Fabes
        SBR Rookie
        • 07-28-14
        • 5

        #318
        Originally posted by arpeggiomeister
        I just looked up the stats for the 49ers in 2003. It was fine. I think you got the wrong year so I looked up 2002. That one has a streak of 8 if you include the push in week 14. When looking at the results it is important to note just how close some of these losing bets were to the mark. In week 10 they were -5 vs KC. They won 17-13. In week 13 they were -8.5 and won by 7. They then pushed in week 14. These results are very close to expectation and will not invoke much of a reaction from the public. With my teaser strategy I was looking not just if they won or lost to the spread, but by how much. I am thinking a similar filter can be created for this situation. I am using Goldsheet to backtest this. I just completed 2007. I can only go back to 2001 so I can not check to see what happened with the Ravens other then to read articles and see what public expectations of the team were. So far my results are encouraging. I think it is simply a matter of creating filters. Will it be fool proof? There is a saying "If you create something that is foolproof God will create a better fool".
        You're on the right track. Analyzing markets, rather than games, is what leads to finding inefficiencies. After that, it's just money management.
        Comment
        • arpeggiomeister
          SBR MVP
          • 05-23-08
          • 1015

          #319
          Both bets lose. We are now on tier two for the underdog and tier
          three for the over/under. NYY/TEX was 12-11. This is just too
          irresistible so I am jumping ship on OAK.





          Today's bets:





          Underdog Chase

          TEX
          +125

          $21.34




          O/U Chase

          TEX
          U/9 -115

          $85.77
          Comment
          • arpeggiomeister
            SBR MVP
            • 05-23-08
            • 1015

            #320
            Originally posted by Fabes
            You're on the right track. Analyzing markets, rather than games, is what leads to finding inefficiencies. After that, it's just money management.
            Thank you for your encouraging words and your research. My database does not go back as far as yours so it is nice to be able to hear about this. I would not have known about the Ravens in 1999 had you not told me. I can now go back and look ant the surrounding circumstances and see if there was a tell-tale sign. In the case of the 6 game losing streak last year with Houston I do not think I could have avoided it. They had such high expectations going into the season and then just melted down completely. I think we could have a situation like that this year with the Browns but we will have to wait and see. Will Johnny football be the answer to their drought or will the NFL give him a reality check? Too many rookie QBs have been coming out and having success right off in recent years. It has become somewhat of an expectation these days. Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, RGIII, etc. Rookies used to sit on the bench for years before they got to play. I think this is a curious anomaly that could create overvalued and unrealistic expectations of rookie QBs entering the NFL. Just a thought.
            Comment
            • arpeggiomeister
              SBR MVP
              • 05-23-08
              • 1015

              #321
              Both bets cover. It looks like the Rangers have a day off today
              so I will try to reel one in with the Astros. Interesting, must be a
              Texas thing. lol





              Today's Plays:





              Underdog Chase

              HOU
              +107

              $9.35




              O/U

              SD
              U/7.5 +105

              $9.52
              Comment
              • Fabes
                SBR Rookie
                • 07-28-14
                • 5

                #322
                Originally posted by arpeggiomeister
                Thank you for your encouraging words and your research. My database does not go back as far as yours so it is nice to be able to hear about this. I would not have known about the Ravens in 1999 had you not told me. I can now go back and look ant the surrounding circumstances and see if there was a tell-tale sign. In the case of the 6 game losing streak last year with Houston I do not think I could have avoided it. They had such high expectations going into the season and then just melted down completely. I think we could have a situation like that this year with the Browns but we will have to wait and see. Will Johnny football be the answer to their drought or will the NFL give him a reality check? Too many rookie QBs have been coming out and having success right off in recent years. It has become somewhat of an expectation these days. Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, RGIII, etc. Rookies used to sit on the bench for years before they got to play. I think this is a curious anomaly that could create overvalued and unrealistic expectations of rookie QBs entering the NFL. Just a thought.
                I expect Hoyer will start the season. The Browns will eventually lose a few, and the "Will Johnny start?" talk will go through the media rounds. ESPN will get some once-great coach to tout him as the savior to the Browns' season. Who knows how long it will be until he starts? But when he does, I expect the national attention to encourage the betting market to overvalue the Browns for the first, and possibly second, game.
                Comment
                • BarstoolProphet
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-05-14
                  • 1151

                  #323
                  Overall Record: 4-7

                  Starting Bankroll: $6000


                  Current Bankroll: $3337

                  Goal: $7200 20% ROI


                  WAS Nats -190
                  $1330 to win $700
                  Comment
                  • BarstoolProphet
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-05-14
                    • 1151

                    #324
                    Overall Record: 4-8

                    Starting Bankroll: $6000


                    Current Bankroll: $2007



                    Ouch These results are no where near what they should be, the first game of the series hit well over 78% for the last 4 years. ohh well. All in.


                    2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1204
                    Det Tigers & Clev Indians

                    2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1254
                    LA Dodgers & OAK A's




                    Comment
                    • arpeggiomeister
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-23-08
                      • 1015

                      #325
                      Both bets lose so we are on tier 2 for both today.





                      Underdog Chase

                      HOU
                      -101

                      $29.64




                      O/U Chase

                      PHI
                      U/7.5 -110

                      $32.47
                      Comment
                      • arpeggiomeister
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-23-08
                        • 1015

                        #326
                        Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
                        Overall Record: 4-8

                        Starting Bankroll: $6000


                        Current Bankroll: $2007



                        Ouch These results are no where near what they should be, the first game of the series hit well over 78% for the last 4 years. ohh well. All in.


                        2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1204
                        Det Tigers & Clev Indians

                        2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1254
                        LA Dodgers & OAK A's




                        This kind of thing happens to me a lot. I had been working on my teaser strategy for a couple of years. I had it honed down to a science... ...or so I thought. I put a team together last year and ended up blowing up $4,000. Not my finest hour. This is why I like paper trading. There is still a long shot for you to come out of this with a profit. If it happens: cool!!! If it doesn't happen then you didn't lose anything - cooler!!!!!!! The next step is to analyze what went wrong. Was it just bad luck? Is there something that contributed to these losses that perhaps you missed when you developed your idea? The most important question is should you pursue this idea further to see if you can make it work? If it worked for 4 years straight then I would say it is definitely worth trying again. Go over your results and see if there is any way that you could have avoided some of these losses. Regardless of how this experiment ends I thank you for posting it. Trying new ideas and discussing them is the very purpose of why I create these threads. Good work.
                        Comment
                        • arpeggiomeister
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-23-08
                          • 1015

                          #327
                          Both bets cover. The underdog chase is wrapping up. I am on bet
                          99 today. I need 100 bets to hit 40%. If I do not win on bet 100 I
                          will switch to a straight martingale instead of a grand martingale.
                          I am on bet 91 with the over/under so I have a little over a week to
                          go on that one if all goes well.





                          Today's Plays:





                          Underdog Chase

                          TEX
                          +135

                          $7.41




                          O/U

                          CLE
                          U/9 -113

                          $11.30
                          Comment
                          • arpeggiomeister
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-23-08
                            • 1015

                            #328
                            Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
                            Overall Record: 4-8

                            Starting Bankroll: $6000


                            Current Bankroll: $2007



                            Ouch These results are no where near what they should be, the first game of the series hit well over 78% for the last 4 years. ohh well. All in.


                            2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1204
                            Det Tigers & Clev Indians

                            2 team parlay: $1003.5 to win $1254
                            LA Dodgers & OAK A's




                            DET and CLE cover and LAD and OAK both lost. You have made a small gain; $2,207.50.
                            Comment
                            • BarstoolProphet
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-05-14
                              • 1151

                              #329
                              Overall Record: 6-10

                              Starting Bankroll: $6000


                              Current Bankroll: $2207







                              2 team parlay: $737 to win $921
                              LA Dodgers & OAK A's

                              WAS Nats -200 $1470 to win $735



                              Comment
                              • arpeggiomeister
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-23-08
                                • 1015

                                #330
                                Underdog loses, under bet wins. Today is bet 100 on the underdog
                                chase. Hopefully it wins





                                Today's Plays:





                                Underdog Chase

                                TEX
                                -112

                                $30.70




                                O/U Chase

                                DET
                                U/8.5 -120

                                $12.00
                                Comment
                                • BarstoolProphet
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-05-14
                                  • 1151

                                  #331
                                  Overall Record: 9-10

                                  Starting Bankroll: $6000

                                  Current Bankroll: $3863

                                  If I am going to meet this goal I need to add another system to increase plays.



                                  ATL/SD Under 6.5
                                  $385 to win $350




                                  Comment
                                  • BarstoolProphet
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-05-14
                                    • 1151

                                    #332
                                    Arp could you also post what number your bet is, since you do not post a balance. I know the underdog is about to wrap things up.
                                    Comment
                                    • arpeggiomeister
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-23-08
                                      • 1015

                                      #333
                                      The underdog loses and under bet wins. I have passed bet 100 in
                                      the underdog chase so now I am trying to recover what I lost plus $20 in
                                      a standard martingale. If I can cover before busting the
                                      experiment was a success. Hopefully I can cover today, but I have
                                      quite a bit in reserves to go several tiers if needed.





                                      The O/U experiment is drawing to a close too. I am on the 93rd
                                      bet today, so that has about another week to hit bet 100, then
                                      however many bets needed to conclude the final chase.





                                      Was looking to bet MIN on the under because they scored 16 runs
                                      last night. They are not playing so I took the opponent in that
                                      game; CWS.






                                      Today's Plays:





                                      Underdog Chase

                                      TEX
                                      +130


                                      $44.70





                                      O/U Chase

                                      CWS
                                      U/9.5 -120


                                      $12.00

                                      Comment
                                      • arpeggiomeister
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-23-08
                                        • 1015

                                        #334
                                        Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
                                        Arp could you also post what number your bet is, since you do not post a balance. I know the underdog is about to wrap things up.
                                        I was lazy with the balance since this experiment was a grand martingale. As long as the system does not bust I simply must multiply each bet placed by $10. Those numbers are posted in today's picks. When the experiment concludes I am going to post the entire body of work along with analysis of what I think happened. I did the o/u experiment on the same chart as the underdog experiment so I will wait until both experiments conclude before I post the final analysis.
                                        Comment
                                        • arpeggiomeister
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-23-08
                                          • 1015

                                          #335
                                          Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
                                          Overall Record: 9-10

                                          Starting Bankroll: $6000

                                          Current Bankroll: $3863

                                          If I am going to meet this goal I need to add another system to increase plays.



                                          ATL/SD Under 6.5
                                          $385 to win $350




                                          Looks like you are coming back. Keep going brother!!!
                                          Comment
                                          • BarstoolProphet
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-05-14
                                            • 1151

                                            #336
                                            Overall Record: 9-11

                                            Starting Bankroll: $6000

                                            Current Bankroll: $3478





                                            CHI Sox -145
                                            $725 to win $500


                                            OAK A's -145 $725 to win $500


                                            Comment
                                            • arpeggiomeister
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-23-08
                                              • 1015

                                              #337
                                              TEX loses again. The under wins.





                                              It is 1:00 am and I am putting my bets in. The numbers could
                                              change by the time I wake up.





                                              Today's Plays:





                                              Underdog Chase

                                              TEX
                                              +120

                                              $85.68




                                              O/U Chase

                                              MIL
                                              U/8 -110

                                              $11.00
                                              Comment
                                              • BarstoolProphet
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-05-14
                                                • 1151

                                                #338
                                                Overall Record: 11-11

                                                Starting Bankroll: $6000

                                                Current Bankroll: $4478





                                                WAS Nats -150
                                                $750 to win $500


                                                STL Cards -150 $750 to win $500
                                                Comment
                                                • arpeggiomeister
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-23-08
                                                  • 1015

                                                  #339
                                                  Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
                                                  Overall Record: 11-11

                                                  Starting Bankroll: $6000

                                                  Current Bankroll: $4478





                                                  WAS Nats -150
                                                  $750 to win $500


                                                  STL Cards -150 $750 to win $500
                                                  Look at this shit!!!! You are scrapping your way back into it brother! Meanwhile the Rangers are making me fight for that last $20. Keep 'em coming.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • arpeggiomeister
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-23-08
                                                    • 1015

                                                    #340
                                                    I guess there are some advantages to placing your bet at 1:00am. I got TEX at +120 last night. I just checked and they are +101 now. Now if they can just win. :P
                                                    Comment
                                                    • keel44
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 08-01-09
                                                      • 3363

                                                      #341
                                                      Sorry Barstool, I just don't like either bet. There is just too much juice for those teams. I hope you get'em, but you gotta get them both. Any reasons for these plays?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • arpeggiomeister
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-23-08
                                                        • 1015

                                                        #342
                                                        The underdog chase is officially a success!!!! It took 102 bets
                                                        and I made a $1,000 return against a $3,000 bankroll for a 40% ROI.
                                                        At no point during this experiment did I ever go over $1,000. That
                                                        is pretty impressive. That means I could have gone into this with a
                                                        bankroll of $1,000 and had a 100% ROI for the season. I like a big
                                                        safety net so I am quite happy with 40%. The over/under is
                                                        wrapping up. Today's post will be the 95th bet. I will
                                                        post my full analysis and complete log of both experiments once this
                                                        one wraps up.





                                                        O/U Chase

                                                        TEX
                                                        U/7.5 -105


                                                        $10.50

                                                        Comment
                                                        • BarstoolProphet
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 06-05-14
                                                          • 1151

                                                          #343
                                                          Overall Record: 12-12

                                                          Starting Bankroll: $6000

                                                          Current Bankroll: $4228





                                                          WAS Nats -160
                                                          $1235 to win $772



                                                          Comment
                                                          • BarstoolProphet
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-05-14
                                                            • 1151

                                                            #344
                                                            Overall Record: 13-12

                                                            Starting Bankroll: $6000

                                                            Current Bankroll: $5000



                                                            Crawling back into this. Need to get it done in the next 10-15 days.


                                                            Comment
                                                            • arpeggiomeister
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 05-23-08
                                                              • 1015

                                                              #345
                                                              The under covers. I took PHI today even though COL scored more
                                                              and the under is higher. The decision to take PHI was based on the
                                                              -120 on the under as opposed to the -105 on the 10.5 for COL. This
                                                              tells me the expectation for PHI to go under is higher.





                                                              Today's Play:





                                                              O/U Chase

                                                              PHI
                                                              U/8 -120

                                                              $12.00
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BarstoolProphet
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 06-05-14
                                                                • 1151

                                                                #346
                                                                Overall Record: 13-12

                                                                Starting Bankroll: $6000

                                                                Current Bankroll: $5000

                                                                OAK A's -275 $1375 to win $500

                                                                Comment
                                                                • arpeggiomeister
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 05-23-08
                                                                  • 1015

                                                                  #347
                                                                  Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
                                                                  Overall Record: 13-12

                                                                  Starting Bankroll: $6000

                                                                  Current Bankroll: $5000



                                                                  Crawling back into this. Need to get it done in the next 10-15 days.


                                                                  Be careful of trying to meet deadlines. It will cause you to act rashly instead of logically. That was my downfall last year. I was going for 100% ROI by the end of the NFL regular season. I had a rollercoaster ride all season and when week 16 came I had no profit to speak of despite coming close to doubling on 3 different occasions. I went all in on a 10 point teaser, the only Seahawks home game they lost. In hindsight I should have known better. The Cardinals were fighting for a playoff spot and the Seahawks had already locked up their playoff spot. The Cardinals had everything to play for and the Seahawks had nothing to play for, but I was drinking the Seahawks Koolaid. Anyways, my main message is do not worry about hitting your target by a set deadline. Get back to even and then worry about making a profit. You are doing a good job. Keep going.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BarstoolProphet
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-05-14
                                                                    • 1151

                                                                    #348
                                                                    Check your mail arp, sorry for getting back to you so late.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • arpeggiomeister
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-23-08
                                                                      • 1015

                                                                      #349
                                                                      I guess there was a pitching change. I got on Betdsi expecting
                                                                      that I had lost the bet to find I got my money back. Okay, I'll take
                                                                      it.






                                                                      I am taking SEA today because they scored 13 last night. The
                                                                      total is really low at 6.5 but the juice is high at -120. Since
                                                                      yesterday's game resulted in a “no play” I am going to up the bet
                                                                      to $24.00 to keep the grand martingale going.





                                                                      O/U Chase

                                                                      SEA
                                                                      U/6.5 -120

                                                                      $12.00
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • arpeggiomeister
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-23-08
                                                                        • 1015

                                                                        #350
                                                                        Under bet covers. Going with BAL today. This is bet #98. This
                                                                        experiment is drawing to a close. Hopefully I can keep the winning
                                                                        streak up and not have to chase past 100, but I shouldn't ask for too
                                                                        much. The simple fact that this has been working should be enough.





                                                                        O/U Chase

                                                                        BAL
                                                                        U/8.5 -110

                                                                        $11.00
                                                                        Comment
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