You will see that some teams take some time to return to the mean but most are immediate, only taking one to two games. I color coded these. I believe I was filtering for 10 point teasers. Highlighting red means the start of a cycle. Red print means the following bet lost. Green means it won. I do see a couple of mistakes in there where things are colored green when they should be red. Yes I am human. The numbers are there so you should be able to pick up on it. I am telling you that this shit works!!! You throw this into a chase system and set a target to get out with. As long as you do not get greedy you can make a profit using this. I also see that I started with 18 on this chart instead of 20. There is no rhyme or reason for that number other then it is extreme enough to invoke a reaction from the public. This is all about crowd psychology. That is what is driving the spread, not random events.
-
Comment -
In week one you only have two teams that start a cycle. If we find the next most extreme cycle I believe it is the Raiders beating the spread by 16 so you would fade them. KC wins by 22 ATS so you fade them. JAC loses ATS by 22 so you play them. You have OAK fade, KC fade, and JAC for a week two 10 point teaser. Did it cover? Oh hell yes!!!! This is where the original Pendulum Cycle Theory was born. It is hard to see these cycles when you are expecting wins and losses straight up ATS (they still exist but are not obvious), but when you start filtering them with 10 and 15 point teasers it becomes plain as day.Comment -
As I said earlier, 2013 was a rough year for me. The main problem with the 10 point teaser system is the same problem I had with the semi-arbitrage, jumping around from one team to the next. The cycles are plain to see but as you mix and match teams you randomize the results thus taking away the advantage. What I am about to propose may not be too exciting to many gamblers because it will only pull in about 30% for the entire NFL season, but if it is consistent than 30% is golden. Chasing is won or lost in the losing streaks. If you look at this chart you will not see any team with a losing streak larger then 6. I usually start the season by chasing the top ranked team (unless it is the superbowl champ, I will then defer to #2). Once there is 3 games played I can then switch to a team which is in triple regression. If a team has lost ATS 3 times and the most extreme losing streaks only last for 6 games then a 4 tier anti-martingale will be sufficient. If you can find a 4 game losing streak ATS that is and added net of safety. If you can make it to week 15 without busting you will get $150 if $10 is one unit. Your total bankroll would be $478.51. This would be a return of 31.3%. The balance is not natural, it is caused by fear and greed. Every time I try to make 100%+ in a season or less I end up getting my ass handed to me, but if I am willing to accept a smaller return then I think this is the best way to get it. These patterns are real and I have explained what is causing them. Now it is just a matter of finding the best way to profit from them.Comment -
There is no doubt that winning or losing BIG against a spread will cause a shift in the point spread to follow, but will it be justified? A team's performance could very well be going in that direction. Denver was the most hyped team, without a doubt. If they win/lose ATS by 18 or more, they should shift back quickly the very next game. They did last year going 2-0.
I find that most professional sports teams go through ups and downs in "performance." We need to find where the change in "performance" meets a knee-jerk reaction in the odds.
I say we need a "feeler" type bet on a team when their performance is at one end of the spectrum or the other. This bet sort of tests the waters of their performance. If the "change" occurs, you then attack hard the opposite way for just a short time before the odds correct itself once again.
The Jaguars starting last year, were a complete laughing stock. They started 0-8 and 1-7 ATS. They finally get a win @Ten. Then they follow with a 3-1 performance ATS and overall.
The Broncos starting last year, were completely the most hyped team. They were scoring a ton of points. If you were to follow any Broncos under result with another under bet, you would be 5-2 including playoffs. Also, they started 3-1 against very over-valued spreads. Then they lost ATS in a very close game in Dallas. Then they go on to lose 2 more ATS and 1 overall as big favorites.
There is no automatic exact formula. I know that is what you want, but some common sense of expectation and performance and knowing what odds are high and low, you/we just might come up with something for every major sport.Comment -
I think there is a formula. It is not exact because it is based on emotions, both of the teams and those who are betting on them. Everything you just said supports the theory that I have been presenting. If I could nail it down to an exact science I could dump the chase systems and hit them when I know the tide is turning. By using chase systems I am conceding that I can not predict when it will happen, I am simply guessing that it will occur within a set amount of games. If am right I make a profit. If I am wrong I blow up my bankroll. I believe what we are talking about right now is the key to the whole thing. The answer is not in the numbers themselves but the emotions behind those numbers. What you said about ups and downs of teams is very important to think about. I do not believe I was on the game where JAC played DEN at Mile High Stadium but the point spread was ridiculous. I think Denver was looking ahead to the next game. I think Jacksonville saw that game as their Superbowl. They played hard and covered the spread. The emotion of the public was that JAC was a joke and they would bet spread even if it were -40. That is the perfect storm. Everything aligned emotionally for the underdog to win that bet. JAC came to play. DEN didn't take them seriously. The public was all over DEN like white on rice. That is an extreme situation but is, in a nutshell, what we are looking for. JAC got spanked in that game but they covered the spread easily because they played hard.Comment -
what are the payouts on a 10 point teaser? And can it be bet straight up? For someone that was been around sports wagering for more than 25 years, you would think i would know these answers. Just never had the desire to get involved in them. I always thought that I could beat the book with straight ATS bets at better odds. lol
To me teasers and pleasers always seemed to be "sucker" bets to me. I would rather play action points than those, but yea I am on board on looking for a solution. And completely agree with you Keel, we just need to "anticipate" when these opportunities arise.Comment -
That is why I proposed a "feeler" bet. This bet is small. It is enough to make a little....then perhaps "press" a lot. Chase if you lose. Check out a potential Denver situation:
The 1st 4 games of Denver's season has gone Over. Denver was scoring points at a record clip. The 5th game you might think things change.
So you through out a .5 unit bet. If you win you now bet a 2.5 unit bet. The goal is to get 2 unders in a row for a 3 unit profit. If you lose the "feeler bet, you wait until there is one under, then bet a 3 unit wager on the very next game. If you win that wager you are up 2.5 units.
What I just outlined did happen. Hindsight is 20/20, but you get the idea. Ease your way during the onset of a "change" then press more once the switch. Use previous winnings to press ahead.
Proper money management matched with proper bet selection. I am trying it now in my baseball thread.
*If an underdog wins against a pitcher-friendly favorite, that means the favorite pitcher had a bad outing which means the total should go "over" because the favorite team should also put up some runs. This is just a theory, but when it does work, I will have won at least a 3-1 parlay payout.Comment -
Overall Record: 3-5
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $4297
Goal: $7200 20% ROI
MIL Brewers -160 $480 to win $300Comment -
Racking up the losses now. I am on tier 3 for the underdog and
tier 4 for the over/under today. I am gonna keep riding the same
teams. I thought about switching to Detroit for the under but it is
7 EV and BOS is 8 -115. That tells me the expectation to go under
favors Boston.
Today's plays:
Underdog Chase
TEX
+158$41.22
O/U Chase
BOS
U/8 -115$172.07 Comment -
I have heard that argument as well but strongly disagree with it. If you are going to take the stance that they are sucker's bets then everything on the boards is a sucker's bet. Everything has juice which creates a negative EV. The only bet that is not a sucker's bet is a true arbitrage. The problem with those is that you need to have a lot of money, be very liquid and have money in many accounts so that you can strike as soon as one becomes available. It is doubly difficult for US players because of the wire act. Most of the sports books I have seen where you can pull these off do not accept US players. There are ways around all of that if you are determined enough but that is a discussion for another time. You are paying -120 to bet a 10 point teaser. It is like a 3 team parlay in that all three must win to cover the bet, but you get to add 10 points to the spread on each team. There is a lot of discussion about crossing key numbers which I personally feel is a pile of horse shit. It is not to say that key numbers are not important, but every point you take off the spread increases the odds in your favor. 7,3, and 0 are the most important key numbers. I especially laugh at the "never cross the zero" rule. I have done many many times and can tell you from first hand experience that those extra 10 points have made the difference between a losing bet and a winning one on multiple occasions. Teasing the favorite into a slight underdog is one strategy, but I also really like to take a heavy underdog that I think can cover the spread and tack on 10 more points. The Jaguars were +26 vs the Broncos. By teasing them you could have had them at +36. Until last year 10 point teasers were the primary strategy I used. What I was doing depended greatly on having 8 to 10 really dominant teams and 8 to 10 really bad ones. The reason last year was so rough for me is the dominant teams got weak and the bad teams got better. The Patriots have dominated their division forever, but let's face it, the AFC East sucks. If they were in the NFC they probably would not have made the play offs. Greenbay struggled, the Saints got better but are still recovering from "bountygate", etc. These are all teams I could count on to dominate their divisions in the past. On the other side of the coin you have the Raiders who I have been able to count on to suck for years. They were no t dominant but they showed signs of life. The Browns did much better then years past, the Dolphins and Bills were unpredictable, the Lions are much better then a few years ago, etc. 3 years ago the NFL was extremely polarized with dominant teams and crappy ones. The teaser system I devised depends on that dynamic. It had gone on for so long that I thought that was just the way it was but then last year that dynamic really changed and the results showed in my system. Nonetheless, I do not believe they are suckers bet. Chasing and flat betting are two different mentalities. One depends on streaks while the other depends on an over-all win percentage. If the Pendulum Cycle Theory truly works than streaks can be timed and managed. Every argument about negative EV must be re-examined because the results ATS are not random. My results are a testament to that theory. I will dig through my records and see if I can post some stuff for you to see.Comment -
Chase Tracker 2008 AFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NE L9.5 W8 L37.5 BYE W6 L14 W31 L2 W4 W6.5 L6 W18.5 L25.5 L4 W16.5 W32 W7.5 NYJ W3 L8 L11 W20 BYE W2.5 L6 L10 W14 W34.5 W6 W26.5 L25 L14.5 L3.5 L13.5 L9.5 BUF W21.5 W8.5 L8.5 W11 L26 BYE W8 L10 L14 L6.5 L7.5 W20 L13.5 L15.5 W3.5 W13.5 L7.5 MIA L3 L14.5 W37.5 BYE W12.5 W2 L17 W10 W13 L5.5 L8 L18.5 L3 W15.5 L0.5 W4 W9.5 PIT W14.5 L2 L5.5 L2.5 W10.5 BYE W18.5 L10 W20 L7 L3.5 W5.5 W25.5 W3 W7 L20 W19.5 BAL W9 NP W15.5 W2.5 L2 L24.5 W17 W11 W13 W30.5 L13 W27.5 W24 W8 L7 W13 W9 CIN L9 L16 W10 L9 W7 L2.5 L18.5 L20 W9.5 BYE W9 L5.5 L24 L18.5 W14 W16.5 W9 CLE L12 W2 L13.5 W9 BYE W28.5 W4 W13 L13 L7 W7.5 L13 W0.5 L5.5 L4 L16.5 L19.5 HOU L14.5 NP L14.5 W3.5 P L2 L4 W20 L1.5 L30.5 W2 W13 W10 W9.5 W4 L18 W4 IND L26 W1.5 L6 BYE
W24.5 L22.5 L6 L4 W7 L2 W6 L0.5 W18.5 L6.5 W1.5 W26 JAC L10 L8.5 W6 L3.5 L10.5 W10 BYE L13 L9.5 W18 L7.5 L20.5 L10 L6.5 W7 L1.5 L9 TEN W10 W18 W14.5 W10 W2 BYE W15 W6 L0.5 W4 W7.5 L26.5 W26.5 W5.5 L4 W20 L26 DEN W24 P L3.5 L23 L0.5 L10 L31 BYE L13 W7 W10.5 L29 W25 L2 L12.5 L13.5 L24 SD L11 P W11 W2.5 L12.5 W14 L8 L8 BYE L13.5 W3.5 L6 L12.5 W18 L5 W20.5 W24 KC W9.5 L12 L18 W23 L24 BYE L14 W10 W6.5 W13.5 L4 L20 W10 W2 W5 L4 L9 OAK L24 W18 W8.5 L2.5 BYE L24 W6 L11 L11 L1.5 W8 W29 L10 L18 L16.5 W18 W18
NFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NYG W4.5 W19.5 L10 BYE W31.5 L28.5 W1.5 W10 W12 W8 W13 W5 W12.5 L0.5 L15 W1.5 W6 PHI W26 W2.5 W5.5 L7 L12.5 W11 BYE W3.5 W14 L8 L9 L27.5 W25 W12.5 W4 L12 W36.5 WAS L4.5 W5 W4 W12 W12.5 L14.5 L4 W1 L20 BYE L2 P L12.5 L8 L14 W12 P DAL W12 L2.5 W8 L12 L7 L11.5 L27.5 W3 L12 BYE W2 W3.5 W13.5 L3 W9 L4 L36.5 GB W3 W20 L10 L7.5 L8.5 W11 W22.5 BYE W0.5 W1.5 W30.5 L22 L7 L9.5 L7 W1 L1 CHI W26 P L6 W7 W24 L1 W4 BYE L8.5 L4 L30.5 W17 L16 W6.5 P L1 L4 DET L16 L20 L13 BYE L24 W11.5 W4 L1 W8.5 L18 W5 L10 L26.5 W6.5 W6.5 L28 W1 MIN L3 L1.5 W7 L10 W6 L11.5 L4 BYE W1.5 L1.5 L1.5 W20.5 W16 L6.5 W25 L10 L6 NO W1 L5 W3.5 W4 L6 W24 L20 W8 BYE L12.5 W4 W22 W1.5 W1 P W28 L1 ATL W16 L8 W18 L8 W8.5 W5 BYE L3.5 W21 W12.5 L8.5 W16 W12.5 L1 L2.5 W10 L10 CAR W11 P L7 W8 W24 L22 W20 L1 BYE W1.5 L5 L18 W8 W12 W12.5 L1.5 W1 TB L1 W8 W6 W7.5 W0.5 W22 L0.5 L3 L6.5 BYE W1.5 W10 L1.5 L18 W2.5 L20.5 L18 SF L7.5 W9 W13 L10 L6 L9 L1.5 L26.5 BYE W4.5 W12 L3.5 W13.5 W14.5 W0.5 L2 P SEA L21.5 L9 W16 BYE L31.5 L11 W0.5 W26.5 L12 W5.5 L3 P L14.5 W4 W0.5 W13.5 L6 STL L26 L19.5 L16 L9 BYE W14.5 W27.5 W2 L18 L34.5 L12 L17 W3 L10 L0.5 W2 W10 ARI W7.5 W14.5 L4 L20 W26 W12.5 BYE W1 W18 L4.5 W3 L5 L25 W10 L25 L32 W6
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 PHI W GB W ATL W NE W NYG W NYG W NE W SF W PIT W NYJ W GB W OAK W TEN W TB W MIN W NE W STL L DET L KC W MIA L SEA L CLE W DAL W SEA W STL L STL L CHI W DEN W DET W OAK L ARI L ARI W CHI W STL L STL W KC W ARI L IND W STL W HOU W ARI W BAL W NYG W BAL L PIT W SD W OAK W NO W L L W L L W W W L L W L W L L W Comment -
Most of my documents have been converted into PDF which I can't seem to copy and paste. I have been writing an ebook on the "Pendulum Cycle Theory". All of these experiments have essentially gone into it. Anyways, I found this which shows the results of 10 point teasers at the bottom. My chase system was only 4 tiers deep so the ROI of what you are looking at is sick!!!Comment -
Arp, I guess my question was if a 10 point teaser could be bet straight up, offshore somewhere? I knew the odds of a 3 team 10 pointer. And, yes I am unavailable to bet offshore, hence why I thought it might be available by now.
At -120 odds on 3 teams it is essentially -447 on a 10 point straight bet. I would be interested in betting something like that , but 3 teams? Not really a big fan of that, but you have my interest.
Just an added thought, guess I could create my own straight bet and take one game and bet 10 points both sides and hope to middle it. For example , take the lowest total on the board,which is expected to be the lowest scoring, duh. But to have 10 points both sides would seem to hit at a more than expected rate than any others.
Now bet the third leg on our collective decision. Thoughts?
Would be nice to check the lowest total theory and see if 10 points both sides would have hit week in and week out.Comment -
The only thing your book would let you do is spreads, if I'm not mistaken. I know you can't go over and under on the same game as 2 of your 3 legs.
ARP---Your 3 teamer chase seems really good. Keep in mind the sample size is really small.Comment -
ok, I took it one step forward. Added to what you have Arp. we will combine the lowest total of the week. in the event of a tie then the largest spread. ( logic reasons that the lowest spread, but 2013 results yielded the opposite.)
We do three 10 pt teasers. Both sides in the above example along with each of Arps plays each week. Chase losses into the following week. In your layout Arp you had 9 losing weeks. I generated 6.3 losing weeks. (Push 1 week. 2 teasers refunded , 1 loss week 15 = .3 loss)
LowTot 2 sides Arps 3 sides Profit result
W 1 W no plays 0
W 2 W 2-1 +.8
W 3 W 1-2 -1.4
W 4 W 3-0 +3
W 5 W 2-1 +.8
W 6 W 1-2 -1.4
W 7 W 3-0 +3
W 8 W 3-0 +3
W 9 L 3-0 -3.6
W 10 W 2-1 +.8
W 11 L 2-1 -3.6
W 12 L 3-0 -3.6
W 13 L 2-1 -3.6
W 14 W 3-0 +3
W 15 P 2-1 -1.2
W 16 W 2-1 +.8
W 17 W 3-0 +3
Now if we had just played straight up we would have been -.2 units. That was in part the push week where one game pushed , so it would have been a refunded ticket(right?) yet the one ticket would have loss and it would not have been refunded, regardless of the push on it.
Now this puts it as close to +EV , which imo is a good system to chase.Comment -
Keel I am using the Total as a benchmark, I am not betting the total just the 2 sides in that game.
Ex. Week 1 2013 The lowest total on the board was TB@NYJ Total 40 spread was NYJ +4.
Tease both sides TB +6 and NYJ +14, then add Arps 3 plays to create three teasers of three teams each.
That is if you can take both sides in the same game. I have a feeling that if they do not allow the over/under in same game, then they may not allow the sides either.Comment -
Overall Record: 4-5
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $4597
Goal: $7200 20% ROI
ATL Braves -165 $495 to win $300Comment -
The underdog loses and the under bet pushes. I made a math error
on the under bet. It doesn't matter much now because the bet pushed,
but the $172.07 should have been multiplied by 1.15. The bet should
have been for $197.88. I added another $10 to keep the grand
martingale going. While we are still on the 4th tier
because of the push we are in the 5th bet in the series
and will win $10 for each bet placed.
Today's plays:
Underdog Chase
TEX
+150$77.57
O/U Chase
OAK
U/9.5 -110$200.27 Comment -
Both bets cover. Back to tier 1... ...sweet!!!
Today's Plays:
Underdog Chase
TEX
+166$6.02
O/U Chase
PHI
U/7.5 -120$12.00 Comment -
That is the entire problem with sports betting, no matter how big your sample size is, it is too small. When searching for roulette bias you need a minimum of 3,800 spins just to tell if there might be a bias in the wheel. To truly know you need over 30,000 spins. That kind of data simply does not exist in sports. Baseball could be the exception because their are so many games and the sport has been around and bet on for over 100 years, but still the data is tainted. Game results from 1909 can not be compared to games played today because there are multiple variables that have changed the game since then. I have 10 years worth of data that show very strong support for the 10 point teaser strategy. The strongest system I have is the least exciting though. I follow the top team on the power rankings ATS with a 5 tier grand martingale. When the teams change in the rankings I change with them, but only after finishing out a chase. As simple as it sounds, it is the most effective system I have come across. The problem is that it is not exciting to most gamblers because you are going to make about 20% ROI for the entire season. The two surviving chases you are observing here in the MLB are variations on that system. I do not want to count my chickens before they hatch but so far it has been working phenomenally well. Chase systems are inherently dangerous and can blow up your bankroll in the blink of an eye. It aint over 'til the fat lady sings, but she is due to hit the stage pretty soon. The underdog chase is in its 92nd bet today. I need 100 to hit my target of 40% ROI. It will be the first to cross the finish line. The over/under chase is on its 83rd bet today so it has a little more to go. I have been documenting the whole thing and will post the results when the experiment has concluded, along with analysis of the results.Comment -
You are doing nice work. We'll keep scrapping until we find gold.Comment -
I am gearing up for the NFL again and I came up with an idea that is very simple but I think I just found gold. In my research on chase systems I came across something called a "Gland Martingale". This is a Martingale system but you are waiting for a certain set of circumstances. Let's say you wait for 5 spins of black to come up before you start betting red. In a random game this is just silliness as every mathematician can tell you, but if my theory is correct than this is an absolutely brilliant idea for sports. The largest average losing streak ATS in the NFL is 6 games. That is on the extreme side. Most streaks last only 3 to 4 games in the NFL. I devised a 4 tier grand martingale and started testing. Since I am waiting for a 3 game losing streak ATS my first bet is not placed until week 4. I am looking to exit by week 15. I did not filter the results other then the 3 game losing streak. My results were very encouraging. I think there are additional filters that can be added that could possibly knock this down to a 3 tier chase. If I can manage that the ROI will be over 90%. As it stands at a 4 tier system I am pulling in a 38% ROI. Not bad for a 4 month investment.Comment -
3 game regression theory. 3 & 4 tier grand martingale:
- $110
- $341
- $826.10
- $1,844.60
$1,277.10 3 tier, $3,121.70 4 tier
2013
4
JAC
L
5
JAC
L
6
JAC
W
7
CHI
L
8
DEN (CHI bye)
W
9
CHI
W
10
BAL
W
11
BUF
W
12
KC
W
13
WAS
L
14
WAS
L
15
WAS
W
2012
4
PHI
W
5
*GB
L
6
GB
W
7
BAL
L
8
*NE
W
9
BAL
W
10
PHI
L
11
PHI
L
12
PHI
L
13
PHI
W
14
DET
W
15
TEN
W
Comment -
I believe that this theory can be applied to every sport. You must know what the average streaks are and adapt your chase system for it. Generally speaking, the more game there are in a season the bigger your chase system will need to be. For the NBA I would wait for a 4 or 5 game losing streak ATS. For the MLB and NHL I would focus on totals. The under chase seems to be working well for me. For the NFL I think I can reduce the chase from 4 tiers to 3 if I filter the teams out by power rankings. The asterisks on the 2012 chart denote that I was unable to find a team with a 3 game streak that week so I substituted high ranking teams that had suffered a recent loss to fill in the blanks. It worked great. I want to go back and try testing the top 10. I think that will work well with the NFL but the NBA is a different animal. The Pacers had a couple of streaks that were like 9 or 10 games. If I stick with a 6 tier system like I used this past season it will be okay but I do not know if I can reduce it to 5 tiers to increase my ROI. I want to squeeze as much as I can but not at the expense of blowing up my bankroll.Comment -
Both bets lost bringing us to tier two for both today
Today's Plays:
Underdog Chase
TEX
+175$14.87
O/U Chase
ARI
U/8.5$33.60 Comment -
Just a quick update on the progress of these two chases. The underdog chase is on it's 93rd bet today, meaning I have completed 92 bets. This is a Grand Martingale System that gains $10 for each bet placed. I have won $910 but lost yesterday's bet so the current Underdog Chase stands at a profit of $903.38. The over/under chase has completed 84 bets. I have gained $830 and lost yesterday so the profit currently stands at $818. Both chases are against a bankroll of $3,000.Comment -
Overall Record: 4-6
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $4102
Goal: $7200 20% ROI
Back tomorrow.
Comment -
TEX loses and the under bet covers. We are on the 3rd
tier with TEX today and the are -143 favorites to beat NYY. That is
pretty expensive for an underdog chase. I am locked into TEX in the
middle of a chase so I can either stick with them and hope they pull
it off or I can start a new chase with another underdog. I am going
to stick with them. The bad thing about this is that if they lose it
is as though I am betting two tiers on this one bet. Normally
underdogs get plus odds. We'll roll with it and see what happens.
Underdog Chase
TEX
-143$72.77
O/U Chase
OAK
U/8.5 -115$11.50 Comment -
Just so you guys know, the longest ATS losing streak in NFL (recent) history is at nine games. It happened twice, once by the 1999 Ravens and once by the 2003 49ers. An eight game streak has happened six times, the last being the 2003 Raiders. The seven game losing streak occurred 14 times, the last being the 2011 Colts.
If you recall, the Colts were without Manning that year but stayed overvalued for much of the season. A lot of us cashed in on that. Same thing with the 2003 Niners, who were coming off a 10-6 season but finished 7-9 after a coaching change. The Raiders lost their starting QB for half of 2003, but were coming off an 11-5 season.
So you might consider riding, rather than chasing, some of these streaks if it seems the team is overvalued.Comment -
TEX wins and the under loses. I was on the fence today the under
bets. The under bet I decided to stick with OAK. I was very tempted
to take the under on TOR but after thinking about it this is the
second series they have had against Boston and it seems as if they
are scoring almost at will. I almost took the over in this game
after thinking about it. Then after analyzing it more, I decided I
was becoming susceptible to the same kind of psychology I have been
talking about all along. Rather then give into it I decided I would
continue the chase with OAK thus sticking to the plan. Plans always
look great on paper but it is stuff like this that makes them
difficult to execute in the real world.
Today's Plays:
Underdog Chase
TEX
+150
$6.67
O/U
OAK
U/8 -105
$33.08
Comment -
Thank you for your input. I have been saying all along that it is vital to pay attention to the crowd psychology. My hypothesis is that the extreme streaks like this are predictable and thus can be avoided. I had not gone back far enough to uncover the Ravens and 49ers streaks. I did look at the Colts streak of 7 and thought that this was entirely predictable and could have easily been avoided. The Bears in 2009 also had a streak that was 7 deep. There were some things that added up to the Bears being overvalued that season as well. The trade for Jay Cutler was pretty controversial if you remember. Many people were not impressed with the way Jay handled himself which was one element. Another element was the expectations Bears fans had after that acquisition. The injury to Brian Urlacher was the final piece. He was the heart and soul of that defense at the time and without him they were just plain awful. It takes more then one man to create a defense so I think this was more psychological then anything... ...which is exactly what I am looking for. You explained the situation with the 49ers in 2003. With each of these situations something happened to skew the public perception. They are abnormal circumstances which can easily be picked up on and avoided. For this to work the team must be operating in an expected manner. Riding streaks can be very dangerous because you can get caught in the hype. I rode the 2007 Patriots and made a killing, but then gave a big chunk of it back as I was slow to figure out the gravy train was over. Riding streaks will do wonders for your bankroll but it is important to have a good exit strategy.Comment -
Made a gross error on Texas but have edited it. They are +150 today, not -154. Big difference!!! +150 is more like what I was expecting to see from the team at the bottom of the ESPN power rankings.Comment
