MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[Alex Vaile]

Awesome thanks Staf

[Alex Vaile]

Play 4: My own creation

Yankees -174
Yankees RL +115
team=Yankees and H and line<-140 and p:L and pp:L and SG=3 and SGS = 3 and DAY

12 and 1 in this spot
8 and 2 runline.

[JMon]

Here it is, but I wonder what you think of the fact that it's lost the last 3 and 4 of 5, Jmon?

H and SG = 3 and day != Saturday and p:HR < 3 and op:HR < 2 and 2 < p:hits < 10 and 4 < op:hits < 13 and pp:HR < 4 and opp:HR < 3 and 2 < pp:hits < 13 and 4 < opp:hits < 17 and -3 < ou streak < 4 and -6.5 < pu margin < 3.5 and pp:SG != 2 and 4 > ppp:SG > 1 and opp:SG < 4 and 3 < ppp:hits < 19 and 1 < oppp:hits < 16 and p:runs + op:runs < 11 and tA(HR, N=10) < 1.9 and oA(HR, N=10) < 1.6 and 1 < os:SRA < 7 and os:SHA > 2 and os:SHRA < 2 and 35 > os:SHF > 16 and os:SPT < 110

[JMon]

adding

868-793 52.3% +$17,330 ROI +9.1%
San Diego Padres

Do what you do, but what is your reasoning for not posting the query. Is it that you do not want it public? If you don't mind PM them to me...I would like to look at the logic behind them.

[emceeaye]

Thanks for your thoughts! What about the fact that another query supports it?

[JMon]

Play reds under

SDQL

Sum(hits@team and season) / Sum(at bats@team and season) <= .255 and 9 * oS(o:earned runs - starter earned runs) / oS(9 - starter innings pitched) <= 3.33 and 10>=total>=8 and starter rest >= 7 and conference=o:conference and rest<4 and 2010<=season and team=Reds

[staf]

Do what you do, but what is your reasoning for not posting the query. Is it that you do not want it public? If you don't mind PM them to me...I would like to look at the logic behind them.

Right, I'd rather not share the recipe to my secret sauce, so to speak.
My methods aren't necessarily about picking winners as they are about finding situations that the sportsbooks are consistently off on the odds or spread.

[Alex Vaile]

4 and 0 start. Nice day so far!

[JMon]

4 and 0 start. Nice day so far!

[b1slickguy]

labones...what is this?????

[b1slickguy]

Play 4: My own creation

Yankees -174
Yankees RL +115
team=Yankees and H and line<-140 and p:L and pp:L and SG=3 and SGS = 3 and DAY

12 and 1 in this spot
8 and 2 runline.

Nice work, Alex.
Keep it rolling.
Good luck.

[emceeaye]

4 and 0 start. Nice day so far!

Good job Alex, lets win on the other unders for today.

[emceeaye]

Anyone taking Dodgers/Padres under at 5 1/2?

[hyahya]

I'm on u5.5 in padres/dodgers, too many queries pointing to it.

[Alex Vaile]

5 and 0 today for + 5.15 units
95 and 74 overall
+ 15.1 units

[FlyinAir]

Love seeing the boys still go at it here

[staf]

1-3 -2.2 units yesterday
5-3 +2.42 units overall

Looks like just 1 play today.
SU: 868-795 52.2% +$17,060 ROI: +8.9%
Dodgers -132

[Alex Vaile]

Thanks for the good wishes everyone! Let's do it again today!

First under play: ( Bases )


Under 8.5 - 110 White Sox vs Yankees

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

[emceeaye]

Brewers su

see SG=1 and month=8

175 >= line >= 120 and P:margin = -1 and s:SRA = 0 and site = away

[hyahya]

ROI, samples followed by the play and "lm" stands for "line match" to the query average:

30 380

cubs

28 440

braves

30 660

A's

cubs lm

5.3 1800

angels
braves

twins

31 210

A's

39 200

padres

34 110

under nats

28 800

rangers lm

26 620

under rangers

under mariners

under reds

44 300

marlins

23.5 165

under nats

30 370

brew

twins lm

8 1400

phils lm
bosox lm

45 140

chisox lm

58 115

chisox lm

24 205

braves lm

23 112
mariners

30 210
giants lm

44 185

under jays

24 800

over marlins

32 520

under chisox

52 90

astros lm

30 420

indians RL lm

30 660

phils

[JMon]

see SG=1 and month=8

175 >= line >= 120 and P:margin = -1 and s:SRA = 0 and site = away

I was just getting ready to post this one of mine.

[JMon]

Play LAD

Here we want to fade a fav of <=-150; a team averaging .9 HRs or less off b2b team left on base of 10 or more. Better in non divisional games! Let's root this nice doggies in boys!

SDQL is

line<=-150 and tA(HR)<=.9 and p:TLOB>=10 and pp:TLOB>=10 and total<9

This is active again on the Phillies.

[BeanTownClown88]

This is active again on the Phillies.

Fade STL?

[JMon]

Fade STL?

yes

[emceeaye]

This is active again on the Phillies.

I want Phillies too, but noticed there seems to be a pitching change for St. louis that does'nt seem to be updated in database. Not sure how much that will affect the outcome if true...

[JMon]

I want Phillies too, but noticed there seems to be a pitching change for St. louis that does'nt seem to be updated in database. Not sure how much that will affect the outcome if true...

There are no pitching parameters in the query, so it wouldn't matter. Maybe line change.

[emceeaye]

There are no pitching parameters in the query, so it wouldn't matter. Maybe line change.

Ok, good...but I did run by one or more other queries on phillies where pitching on previous start of starter for Cards was a factor. More than one reliable query pointing to it would be better, but the one you posted is solid...

Other thing is that wainright is much better pitcher than Miller, so although not reflected in query, maybe useful to add some pitcher filters to see.

[JMon]

Are you talking for today?...my book still has wainwright v kendrick and so does the DB??

[emceeaye]

Are you talking for today?...my book still has wainwright v kendrick and so does the DB??

ok, espn still has Miller for today. Dunno how reliable espn is.

My book has wainright too. Point is if query has wainright and our books have Wainwright and he doesn't start, then its no action anyway. 2ndly, if it is Miller then we are happier because miller not as good.

But intuitively I have reservations due to how good Wainwright is.

[JMon]

Play Yanks under

SDQL by bases

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors) and season = 2014

[JMon]

Play Marlins ov

SDQL by bases. I set it up so one can see how the over fares when games are played @ the Rockies.

p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 6 and (s:SHA + ss:SHA) < 17 and (os:SHA + oss:SHA) < 17 and 2.6 < tA(runs, N=10) < 6.8 and oA(runs, N=10) < 6.6 and total < 10.5 and 84 < os:SPT < 119 and starter rest < 20 and o:starter rest < 25 and (rest = 1 or rest = 0) and p:hits < 17 and 3 < op:hits < 18 and .8 < tA(doubles, N=10) < 2.5 and .8 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 3.1 and day != Wednesday and -2 < ou streak < 5 and -2 < ou streak < 3 and month < 10 and (game number < 107 or game number > 116) and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.9 and 1.9 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.7 and tA(BPRA, N=10) > .4 and p:hits > 5 and (start time - p:start time < -306 or start time - p:start time > -102) and (p:SO + op:SO) > 7 and A and o:team=Rockies

[Alex Vaile]

Second play: ( Dr.M )

Play Arizona - 113
Arizona RL +170

Padres no good in this spot recently.

team=Padres and A and o:streak<=-2 and season >= 2014
team=Padres and A and p:L and p:M6=0 and date >= 20130420

[Alex Vaile]

Play Yanks under

SDQL by bases

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors) and season = 2014

This is my favorite query by Bases its been hot lately. I already posted it above. Double it up for luck!!

[JMon]

This is my favorite query by Bases its been hot lately. I already posted it above. Double it up for luck!!

oops, missed your post. There is another of bases supported the Yanks under as well.

[JMon]

Second play: ( Dr.M )

Play Arizona - 113
Arizona RL +170

Padres no good in this spot recently.

team=Padres and A and o:streak<=-2 and season >= 2014
team=Padres and A and p:L and p:M6=0 and date >= 20130420

I'll play this one with you! Any notice, the top query does not have accurate RL results or am I reading it incorrectly?