Samrock's 2013 RL Chase System(AKA Stifler 2.0)

[samrock67]

4/29/13

Current Stifler record: 60-1, +23.497u, 8 series pending
RL Record: 50-6(+1.69u), 9 series pending(-24u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 22-44
B bet: 15-27
C bet: 6-16
D bet: 7-6

4/28/13 RECAP

(D Bet) S1 Col fade: Ari -1.5(+145) 8u WINNER +4.6u
(D Bet) S3 Bal fade:Oak -1.5(+140) 8u
(D Bet) S3 Oak: Oak -1.5(+140) 8u
(C Bet) P2 Masterson: Cle -1.5(+179) 4u
(B Bet) S1 NYY: NYY -1.5 (+180) 2u
(B Bet) S2 Phi fade: NYM -1.5(**) 2u
(B Bet) P1 Fister: Det -1.5(+150) 2u WINNER +2u
(B Bet) P2 Fister: Det -1.5(+150) 2u WINNER +2u
(A Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+110) 1u
(A Bet) S1 SD fade: SF-1.5(+140) 1u

Pending:
S1 NYY, C bet on 4/29/13
S2 Phi fade, C bet on 4/30/13
S1 Stl, B bet on 4/29/13
S2 SD fade, B bet on 4/29/13
P2 Masterson, D bet next start
P1,P2 Hudson, C bet 4/30/13
P1, P2 Buehrle, C bet 5/1/13

[samrock67]

So I saved you guys some money yesterday and forgot to list the P2 Masterson bet on Cleveland. Worked out well because they got destroyed 9-0 by the Royals. Apologies for that. Here is today's card:

4/29/13

(C Bet) S1 NYY: NYY -1.5(-125) 4u
(B Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+175) 2u
(B Bet) S2 SD Fade: ChC -1.5(+135)
(A Bet) S2 Cle fade: KC -1.5(+140) 1u
(A Bet) S3 SD fade: ChC -1.5(+135) 1u
(A Bet) S3 ChC: ChC -1.5(+135) 1u
(A Bet) P3 Cain fade: Ari -1.5(+180) 1u

[dalogester]

I have a feeling the system will pick up but I have to jump off the band wagon to save my roll just in case. Good luck everyone, hope its a positive season!

[samrock67]

4/30/13

Current Stifler record: 62-1, +25.497u, 10 series pending
RL Record: 53-6(+6.09u), 12 series pending(-34u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 24-46
B bet: 16-28
C bet: 6-17
D bet: 7-6

4/29/13 RECAP

(C Bet) S1 NYY: NYY -1.5(-125) 4u
(B Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+175) 2u
(B Bet) S2 SD Fade: ChC -1.5(+135) WINNER +1.7u
(A Bet) S2 Cle fade: KC -1.5(+140) 1u
(A Bet) S3 SD fade: ChC -1.5(+135) 1u WINNER +1.35u
(A Bet) S3 ChC: ChC -1.5(+135) 1u WINNER +1.35u
(A Bet) P3 Cain fade: Ari -1.5(+180) 1u

Pending:
S1 NYY, D bet on 4/30
S2 Phi fade, C bet on 4/30
S1 Stl, C bet on 4/30
S2 Cle fade, B bet on 4/30
P2 Masterson, D bet next start
P1, P2 Hudson, C bet on 4/30
P1, P2 Buehrle next start
P3 Cain fade, B bet next start

[samrock67]

4/30/13

(D Bet) S1 NYY: NYY -1.5(-130) 8u
(C Bet) S2 Phi fade: Cle -1.5(+195) 4u
(C Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+160) 4u
(B Bet) S2 Cle fade: Phi -1.5(+135) 2u
(A Bet) S3 ChW fade: Tex -1.5(-105) 1u
(A Bet) S3 Tex: Tex -1.5(-105) 1u
(A Bet) P3 Lester: Bos -1.5(+130) 1u
(C Bet) P1 Hudson: Atl -1.5(+185) 4u
(C Bet) P2 Hudson: Atl -1.5(+185) 4u

[illisdre]

looking like a great nite.. too bad i cut that bet size down.. and i skipped the NYY game

[samrock67]

This actually poses a conundrum...if you had bet 8u on the Yankees, you would take a .85u loss on the series bc of that horrid line. I'll have to make note of when lines get that bad in the future to tell people to up their bet size for that bet.

That being said, looking like we will clear 1 D bet, 3 C bets and 2 B bets off the table(if Texas holds on to this 4-run lead). Great night indeed.

[illisdre]

This actually poses a conundrum...if you had bet 8u on the Yankees, you would take a .85u loss on the series bc of that horrid line. I'll have to make note of when lines get that bad in the future to tell people to up their bet size for that bet.

That being said, looking like we will clear 1 D bet, 3 C bets and 2 B bets off the table(if Texas holds on to this 4-run lead). Great night indeed.

I think you could play it a few ways.. 1.. eat the .85u loss.
but.. since you are betting 8 units, may as well risk an extra 1-2 units and makes sum profit.

To me the bigger conundrum is the teams to play -1.5 RL on and those which don't deserve it. Should we invoke the -1 RL at certain games...?

Should we take cues from the o/u on low scoring games. Should we mix the -1.5 RL with ML 50/50 and stick with Stiflers system... for ex.
A bet - 1 unit (50%ML 50%RL) = result LOSS
B bet - 2 unit (50%ML 50%RL) = result ML WIN and RL LOSS
C bet -2 unit (100% RL) = RL WIN
no D bet.

just throwing ideas out there

[samrock67]

See, but as you can see from last night, even teams that based on the given odds, don't deserve to be played on the RL(like Cle and Atl) end up working out in our favor a lot of times...It's hard to just say right now that you will do a 50/50 split between the ML and RL because if the ML hits but the RL doesn't, the only thing you've done is saved yourself a little bit of money during the chase(which isn't a bad thing).

Also, at what odds do you decide when to split and when to play the RL straight up? It's a tough line to draw...straying from the RL will by default make you want to split ML/RL a lot just to be conservative, but it's winning those RL games when the odds are super juicy(+175 or better, for example) that contribute most to profit.

It's certainly a work in progress and there is much to think about. I just personally don't have the time to devise the best betting strategy to use right now.

[samrock67]

5/1/13

Current Stifler record: 68-1, +31.497u, 7 series pending
RL Record: 59-6(+20.74u), 7 series pending(-28u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 26-47
B bet: 16-29
C bet: 9-18
D bet: 8-6

4/30/13 RECAP
(D Bet) S1 NYY: NYY -1.5(-130) 8u WINNER(sort of) -.85u
(C Bet) S2 Phi fade: Cle -1.5(+195) 4u WINNER +4.8u
(C Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+160) 4u
(B Bet) S2 Cle fade: Phi -1.5(+135) 2u
(A Bet) S3 ChW fade: Tex -1.5(-105) 1u WINNER +.95u
(A Bet) S3 Tex: Tex -1.5(-105) 1u WINNER +.95u
(A Bet) P3 Lester: Bos -1.5(+130) 1u
(C Bet) P1 Hudson: Atl -1.5(+185) 4u WINNER +4.4u
(C Bet) P2 Hudson: Atl -1.5(+185) 4u WINNER +4.4u

Pending:
S1 Stl, D bet on 5/1
S2 Cle fade, C bet on 5/1
P2 Masterson, D bet next start
P1, P2 Buehrle, C bet on 5/1
P3 Cain fade, B bet next start
P3 Lester, B bet next start

[samrock67]

5/1/13

(D Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+180) 8u
(C Bet) S2 Cle fade: Phi -1.5(+110) 4u
(C Bet) P1 Buehrle: Tor -1.5(+229) 4u
(C Bet) P2 Buehrle: Tor -1.5(+229) 4u
(A Bet) S2 Phi: Phi -1.5(+110) 1u
(A Bet) S2 Cle fade: Phi -1.5(+110) 1u
(A Bet) P2 Wilson: LAA -1.5(+165) 1u

[chound]

5/1/13

(D Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+180) 8u
(C Bet) S2 Cle fade: Phi -1.5(+110) 4u
(C Bet) P1 Buehrle: Tor -1.5(**) 4u
(C Bet) P2 Buehrle: Tor -1.5(**) 4u
(A Bet) S2 Phi: Phi -1.5(+110) 1u
(A Bet) S2 Cle fade: Phi -1.5(+110) 1u
(A Bet) P2 Wilson: LAA -1.5(**) 1u

If your following stifler shouldn't the (C Bet) S2 Cle Fade: Phi -1.5(+110) 4u bet be pending since thats a stifler road fade and they are home?.....Thats why he has a different fade against them as well being this one a home fade.

[samrock67]

If your following stifler shouldn't the (C Bet) S2 Cle Fade: Phi -1.5(+110) 4u bet be pending since thats a stifler road fade and they are home?.....Thats why he has a different fade against them as well being this one a home fade.

I've thought about that, but I honestly don't think it makes a difference...and at this point it would be a lot of work for me to go back and change the numbers based on home/away fades. So, this doesn't mirror Stifler's bets exactly...Stifler's system just kicks the series into gear, and we just hope that one of the next 4 games hits for us on the RL. I wanted to keep it simple.

[illisdre]

Nice so far. Too bad I turned puss and halved my bet and her ml. I know as soon as I up my bet things will fail!

[samrock67]

5/2/13

Current Stifler record: 69-1, +32.497u, 9 series pending
RL Record: 60-6(+28.14u), 9 series pending(-33u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 26-50
B bet: 16-29
C bet: 9-21
D bet: 9-6

5/1/13 RECAP
(D Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+180) 8u WINNER +7.4u
(C Bet) S2 Cle fade: Phi -1.5(+110) 4u
(C Bet) P1 Buehrle: Tor -1.5(+229) 4u
(C Bet) P2 Buehrle: Tor -1.5(+229) 4u
(A Bet) S2 Phi: Phi -1.5(+110) 1u
(A Bet) S2 Cle fade: Phi -1.5(+110) 1u
(A Bet) P2 Wilson: LAA -1.5(+165) 1u

Pending:
S2 Cle fade, D bet
S2 Phi, B bet
S2 Cle fade, B bet
P2 Masterson, D bet
P1, P2 Buehrle, D bet
P3 Cain fade, B bet
P3 Lester, B bet
P2 Wilson, B bet

[samrock67]

5/2/13

Guys I'm going to change the format of my posting because this has become very time-consuming, and as much as I love doing this, the posts take me a while to type out and my studies are my priority. After June things will change back to normal. I hope most of you can forgive me. The posts won't change much, I am just going to remove the current odds. Here is what today's card looks like(only 1 game):

(B Bet) S2 Phi: Phi -1.5 2u
(A Bet) S3 LAA: LAA -1.5 1u

[ColdBeerHere]

Fwiw sam, I am onto other things...I still have toget arou d to my runline thread

[samrock67]

So is anyone still actually following at this point? Please post here and I'll continue to post the plays, otherwise I'll just keep track of them and let this thread die...

[J.M. Disciple]

Still following... More interested in just keeping track though. Have not been betting these plays personally, but interested to see the variance between the two systems. I would keep it going even if no one follows so you know it works.

Just keep your post simple and post the teams that are to be bet for that day. Everyone knows to play RL, so just post the teams to bet on. Dont need to post who they are vs or time they start or odds. As long as people know ABC or D and team thats all you need.

Keep up the good work, next season if this thread works this season you will have a lot of followers. I dont think stif had a ton of followers last season but this season he does cause he proved himself last season.

Keep it up bro.

[samrock67]

5/3/13

Current Stifler record: 69-1, +32.497u, 10 series pending
RL Record: 61-6(+28.88u), 9 series pending(-33u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 26-51
B bet: 17-29
C bet: 9-21
D bet: 9-6

5/2/13 RECAP
(B Bet) S2 Phi: Phi -1.5 2u
(A Bet) S3 LAA: LAA -1.5 1u

Pending:
S2 Cle fade, D bet
S2 Cle fade, B bet
S3 LAA, B bet
P2 Masterson, D bet
P1, P2 Buehrle, D bet
P3 Cain fade, B bet
P3 Lester, B bet
P2 Wilson, B bet

[samrock67]

5/3/13

S1
(A Bet) NYY 1u

S2
(D Bet) Cle fade: Min 8u
(B Bet) Cle fade: Min 2u
(A Bet) Phi fade: Mia 1u

S3
(B Bet) LAA 2u
(A Bet) Oak fade: NYY 1u
(A Bet) Pit 1u

P3
(A Bet) Sabathia: NYY 1u

[zeusky]

Nice job Sam. Keep it up.

[illisdre]

I keep throwing all my SBR points at these D bets... I think every time i save up over 100 i go all in on a D bet... Never won once.
bad omen perhaps.

[samrock67]

5/3/13 RECAP

S1
(A Bet) NYY 1u

S2
(D Bet) Cle fade: Min 8u
(B Bet) Cle fade: Min 2u
(A Bet) Phi fade: Mia 1u

S3
(B Bet) LAA 2u WINNER +2.3u
(A Bet) Oak fade: NYY 1u
(A Bet) Pit 1u WINNER +1.68u

P3
(A Bet) Sabathia: NYY 1u

[samrock67]

5/4/13 RECAP

S1
(B Bet) NYY 2u WINNER +2.3u

S2
(C Bet) Cle fade: Min 4u
(B Bet) Phi fade: Mia 2u WINNER +5u

S3
(B Bet) Oak fade: NYY 2u WINNER +2.3u

[J.M. Disciple]

Just a quick stat. rl for -200 favorites and above this season are 16-10 (61%). Usually a -200 RL hits around -115 to -105. I am on DET tomorrow and seen the juice at -160 which was shocking to me for a RL, so had to go back and look up some stats on it. Hou pitcher is 0-6 this season losing by RL each and every time, so hopefully verlander can get the job done in the same fashion (being 3-2 this season). Lets hope for another 17-2 victory.

Doesnt exactly relate to this system, but given the odds and RL figured it be nice little stat to have so far this season.

[Stifler]

5/4/13 RECAP

S2
(B Bet) Phi fade: Mia 2u

Miami should be a winner if im not mistaken.

[samrock67]

Miami should be a winner if im not mistaken.

Thanks, corrected. I might have absentmindedly done that because they're so bad LOL

[samrock67]

5/5/13

Current Stifler record: 75-1, +38.497u, 9 series pending
RL Record: 66-8(+12.46u), 7 series pending(-25u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 26-55
B bet: 21-30
C bet: 9-22
D bet: 9-8

[samrock67]

Just a quick stat. rl for -200 favorites and above this season are 16-10 (61%). Usually a -200 RL hits around -115 to -105. I am on DET tomorrow and seen the juice at -160 which was shocking to me for a RL, so had to go back and look up some stats on it. Hou pitcher is 0-6 this season losing by RL each and every time, so hopefully verlander can get the job done in the same fashion (being 3-2 this season). Lets hope for another 17-2 victory.

Doesnt exactly relate to this system, but given the odds and RL figured it be nice little stat to have so far this season.

It's games like this that everyone empties their bankroll on the Tigers and somehow the Astros will win it...don't mean to jinx anything but I wouldn't be surprised...

[samrock67]

5/5/13

S1
(A Bet) Col fade: TB 1u

S2
(D Bet) Cle fade: Min 8u

P3
(B Bet) Lester: Bos 2u
(A Bet) Saunders fade: Toronto 1u

[ColdBeerHere]

Just a quick stat. rl for -200 favorites and above this season are 16-10 (61%). Usually a -200 RL hits around -115 to -105. I am on DET tomorrow and seen the juice at -160 which was shocking to me for a RL, so had to go back and look up some stats on it. Hou pitcher is 0-6 this season losing by RL each and every time, so hopefully verlander can get the job done in the same fashion (being 3-2 this season). Lets hope for another 17-2 victory.

Doesnt exactly relate to this system, but given the odds and RL figured it be nice little stat to have so far this season.

Intersting stat. Thanks for posting. Might be worth doing some kind of chase with those favs....or possibly a chase with thos3 favs parlayed with other things

[samrock67]

5/5/13 RECAP

S1
(A Bet) Col fade: TB 1u WINNER +1.58u

S2
(D Bet) Cle fade: Min 8u WINNER +8.6u

P3
(B Bet) Lester: Bos 2u
(A Bet) Saunders fade: Toronto 1u WINNER +1.25u

[J.M. Disciple]

Intersting stat. Thanks for posting. Might be worth doing some kind of chase with those favs....or possibly a chase with thos3 favs parlayed with other things

I started doing this based on a system that use to take biggest favorite of the day at -1RL. Person had a 5 year back test on it where biggest losing streak is 6 days and biggest win streak was like 17 straight. I am using a bit of a agressive labby approach with it, but a little capping as well. Trying to apply a .500 filter where other team has to be under .500. Also some days the biggest favorite is very close so I just play them both or drop the top favorite based on pitching match up or some thing. Its 6-6 since I started but only up $46 ($20 unit size). Two games were won by ML, but RL lost. The ML juice is just not worth it to me so far. This was some what of a bad week going 4-6, but still up $6 LOL. I'll take it with a losing record and still showing a profit is good money management.

Anyways with my labby I am just using 1# to start so A and B are practically a chase and than C and on becomes recovery management. so start with $20 on my line if it loses it becomes 20 - 22, so next bet to win $42, if that loses it becomes 20 - 22 - 42, so next bet is 62, so on and so forth. Det was my biggest bet today with $106 at risk (-160 RL). Figure if I can get 4-3 or even 3-4 every week it will lead to a small profit. Eventually as my bankroll grows i"ll consider doing a six game chase since RL isn't too bad usually around -105 to -115 most days.

Also I dont see the thread up and running this year, not sure why.

[samrock67]

5/6/13

Current Stifler record: 78-1, +41.497u, 8 series pending
RL Record: 69-8(+23.89u), 6 series pending(-20u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 28-55
B bet: 21-31
C bet: 9-22
D bet: 10-8