mlb chase 2013

[Grinder12000]

I think Thursday is cry in our beer day.

JMD. Skipping the "A" bets would by -EV for this chase as it depends on a large amount of plays with winning at least 50% of the "D" plays.

the nightmare scenario for this kind of chase is losing early or losing multiple chases in a short time ( I think I have lost FOUR chases in the last two weeks)

Looking for a good parlay to finish this chase.

someone help me with soccer what league and so forth.

[Stifler]

18.04.2013

P1

(A Bet) D.Price fade: Baltimore 2,14 0,877u

P2

(A Bet) D.Price fade: Baltimore 2,14 0,877u


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all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Grinder12000]

What is the difference in P1 and P2?? Seems we are fading the same team twice but for the same reason. ??? P1 and P2 seem to be exactly the same unless a team is a favorite.

P1 - Play the RL on any team with < +100 odds (favs) and play the ml on any team with odds of +100 (dogs) or more. IN this case +110 so we are playing the ML twice which becomes the exact same system as P2. ??

P2 - Play every team on the moneyline.

[Stifler]

P1 is rl or >= +100 odds only. There are also different pitcher who qualify for the systems.

[Grinder12000]

And just to put things in prospective? What we have gone through in the first 50 games is about half the losses the chase had in 50 games last year. The difference was last year "we" were up 60 units and lost 80 in a span of 50 days.

For anybody that is left but on life control, hang in there. This is a risk/reward system - high risk high reward.

P1 is rl or >= +100 odds only. There are also different pitcher who qualify for the systems.

Gotcha. And for others ">= +100" take the +100 literally. >+100 is +101

[cards2013]

hanging in there, friday we got a D bet, right?
and probably a ton of other action too

[cards2013]

the pitching matchup is good for us on friday, but juice will be -200, -180 again?

[Stifler]

the pitching matchup is good for us on friday, but juice will be -200, -180 again?

the reason im going to do the parlay.

[dalogester]

checking in...

[nbballaz7]

For record keeping purposes, I think you should show the chase as it should have been (if it was played the right way).

It just makes sense for future records to not include the parlay. I just think it is a true reflection of the system, rather than just adding in random parlays to lower juice (which i completely understand why you did that).

Not trying to stir the pot, have been a following since the beginning of the NBA season!

Just my thoughts.

- i parlayed the Dodgers today with Paris Saint Germain (FRA Cup soccer). Normally not the way to play the system, but i like PSG today. I wanted to parlay ManCity first, but i like the fact that PSG gets dropped from the CL. They should be focused on winning the league and the Cup. Do not tail blindly if anyone is going to follow the parlay, just a little advice. If u wanna play it right, just play the ml on Dodgers.

17.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) SD fade: Dodgers 1,526 1,90u | Dodgers 1,549 5,282u | Dodgers + PSG 2,147 7,133u

P2

(A Bet) Masterson: Cleveland 1,752 1,33u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Grinder12000]

For record keeping purposes, I think you should show the chase as it should have been (if it was played the right way).

I'm going back to readjust some things from last year HOWEVER - I think I might follow Stif on something like this. I'm rethinking how I'll play chases with HUGE losses. I would rather cut my chase early and take a loss then follow blindly into oblivion.

[dogs1972]

[QUOTE=nbballaz7;18429454]For record keeping purposes, I think you should show the chase as it should have been (if it was played the right way).

yep

[calebepley93]

We're better off cutting losses imo. If the Dodgers get swept at home by the frickin Padres they don't deserve to be bet on again especially for a D.

Parlaying saves money but it reduces your odds from having 2 /3 shot at winning to 4/9 or so. You're always better off making the system bet. I personally will never chase beyond 25 units so I'm outtie

[nbballaz7]

I completely understand what we are better off doing or what should* be done. But how can we get a true reflection of how the chase performed if the records aren't shown exactly how the rules state the chase should be played.

We can't "adjust" records based on heavy chalked lines, because we decided to randomly parlay C & D bets. That skews the results and basically makes all of the records for this chase worthless.

Just my opinion.

[degengamble]

- good luck

[Stifler]

I completely understand what we are better off doing or what should* be done. But how can we get a true reflection of how the chase performed if the records aren't shown exactly how the rules state the chase should be played.

We can't "adjust" records based on heavy chalked lines, because we decided to randomly parlay C & D bets. That skews the results and basically makes all of the records for this chase worthless.

Just my opinion.

I always keep those juicy series in mind. Nothing else needed here. And nothing more to add.

[Grinder12000]

I'm glad there has been know one commenting how we are all pussies and not wishing to wager 50 units on one play. We're all in this together. I'm fine with 25 to 30unit plays for a final game of a chase but if it's NOT the final I need to deal with how I'm going to move forward with this chase. it would be nice if San Diego was +300 for their next game :-)

[J.M. Disciple]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2283880-samrocks-2013-rl-chase-system-aka-stifler-2-0-a-p3.html#post18423002

These guys are playing this system based on RL. Still well into the green this season, but it has not been back tested.


Going back to the most important thing in sports betting, BANKROLL MANAGEMENT!!! It was recommended by stifler to have at least 75 units as a bankroll for this system, now we can all see its closer to 200 units when playing the system properly.

[dlunc3]

I am not sure why D bets are causing such panic? Based on the last 7 years of backtests, there have been 167 D bets. Over that same time frame, there has been approximately 168 weeks (7 years x 7 months.. figuring 4 weeks per month). And those were all the best seasons after Stiffler narrowed down all of his teams after filtering out the losing ones..

So with that, if you are going to play this system, you are going to need to get used to D bets. You can expect at least one per week on average (and that is during a good year!).

[Huego]

i don't think anyone is complaining about the number of D bets, rather we are concerned about the wager amount. In the LAA chase we risked 25 units on the D bet and the SD fade looks like we will be risking around 50 units on the D bet.

[J.M. Disciple]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2110670-model-estimating-mlb-run-totals-now-time-beta-test-p2.html

i am not following this thread, but I found it as an interesting read. I like the part where he referred to troll repellent.

[J.M. Disciple]

mlb chase 2013

Standard chase rules:

- all systems will be played in a 4 game chase on the moneyline
- i advice to start with atleast 75 units, a bankroll of 100 units would be better
- a system loss will cost from 6 to 50 units, anything between is possible depending on the odds
- i will play the pitcher chase system for half the unit amount


betting structure:

we are playing a 4 game chase to win 1 unit.

example: (with consistent lines)
A Bet line -170 , risk 1,7u to win 1u
game lost, it moves to B bet
B Bet line -170 , risk 4,59u to win 2,7u[the lost amount on A bet + 1 unit]
game lost, it moves to C bet
C Bet line -170 , risk 12,40u to win 7,29u[the lost amount on A & B bet + 1 unit]
game lost, it moves to D bet
D Bet line -170 , risk 33,49u to win 19,69u[the lost amount on A, B & C bet + 1 unit]
if D Bet is a loser then -52,18 units overall, if D Bet wins (or any other) u win 1 unit

Going a long with what Dlunc said, could easily expect some 20-40 unit D bets quite often.

[J.M. Disciple]

Really no one watching the game? Or waiting for the fat lady to sing?.... based loaded no outs...

[Jellybeans]

Homer!
Grand Slam!
Wow

[samrock67]

[Grinder12000]

I am not sure why D bets are causing such panic? Based on the last 7 years of backtests, there have been 167 D bets.

those numbers are disputable. But it's not the "D" play, it's the amount we are putting on basically a 50% bet with 50+ units!

And those were all the best seasons after Stiffler narrowed down all of his teams after filtering out the losing ones..

the question is - does he narrow the teams down BEFORE or after the season was played. Are those the best you can get? Remember he was 8-7 on "D" bets last year but the chart has 11-5.. just sayin.

[Lakey]

Stifler, just would like to clarify the pitching systems. Price now has 4 consecutive losses, but because we just won the A bet fading him I assume he was no games on his current streak?

[theanswer03k]

I have a question regarding the Pitcher system.
What happens if a pitcher hits the DL mid-chase?

[Grinder12000]

This going to be a crazy night with a huge slate of NHL chases and who knows the total in MLB. 20 wager night?

[ColdBeerHere]

Really no one watching the game? Or waiting for the fat lady to sing?.... based loaded no outs...

I actually prefer the "build your own slam" ...And I upgrade the hashbrowns to the Everything Hashbrowns with brown gravy instead of white, mmm....

[Grinder12000]

Probably no Boston games tonight - Boston is still in total lock down and there are no workers at Fenway or . . wherever thay play Hockey (The garden?).

[Grinder12000]

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[cape07]

Yeah we are on total lockdown.. No one should be out

[Grinder12000]

Could really use some picks today if I have to put in 20 wagers.

[Stifler]

Stifler, just would like to clarify the pitching systems. Price now has 4 consecutive losses, but because we just won the A bet fading him I assume he was no games on his current streak?

next chase would start if he loses 6 in a row. Next bet would be in the 7th start. Means always count 3 game streaks. The losing game for price will count as the first game of the potantial 3 game losing streak.

I have a question regarding the Pitcher system.
What happens if a pitcher hits the DL mid-chase?

help me...DL?

Could really use some picks today if I have to put in 20 wagers.

will start looking @ the game in a few minutes. 3 hours traffic jam took some time...