Geico 500 Picks 2024: NASCAR Betting Odds & Preview for Talladega Superspeedway

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to superspeedway racing this Sunday, as we offer our best Geico 500 picks based on the best NASCAR odds for Talladega Superspeedway from our best sports betting sites.

Following an eventful race at Texas Motor Speedway last weekend, NASCAR is now gearing up for the Geico 500 at the legendary Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday, starting at 3 p.m. ET (FOX). Despite starting on the pole, Michael McDowell remains a long shot at our best sports betting sites.

Superspeedway races like Talladega typically attract a lineup of favorites, including Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano, all competing for the top spot.

William Byron and Denny Hamlin, both favored in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, are also expected to shine and contend for victory at this renowned 2.66-mile track known for its high speeds and intense racing.

Here are our Geico 500 picks for Sunday's race based on the NASCAR odds for Talladega Superspeedway (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Geico 500 picks

• Favorite: Brad Keselowski (+1100 via bet365) ⭐⭐
• Long shot: Todd Gilliland (+5000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
• Prop bet: Ford to win (+180 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Pick to win: Ty Gibbs (+2200 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

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Odds to win Geico 500 2024

Odds as of April 20 at 3:50 p.m. ET

Geico 500 field

There have been seven different winners in the last seven races at Talladega, and seven of the nine active winners at this track are still looking for their first win of the season. That should make for one heck of a race on Sunday.

The most exciting aspect of superspeedway racing is that anyone can win, and that's certainly the case at Talladega. We've seen eight previous winners start outside the top 20, including Denny Hamlin's surge from 34th to first back in 2014, while the polesitter has won just 13.8% of the time. That's factoring into McDowell's market-high odds of +3500 to win the 2024 race despite pole position.

The best approach for a race like this: sprinkle a few smaller bets and pray. This is also the type of race for which odds shopping is key with so many drivers bunched together between +1000 and +2000, and our best sportsbook promos could make the difference on which book to target ahead of Sunday.  

Geico 500 expert predictions

Favorite: Brad Keselowski ⭐⭐

You could pick a few drivers as the "favorite" with five different cars sharing the top spot across our best sportsbooks. Why not bet the one who's won here more than any other driver in the field?

Keselowski finished second in last week's chaotic race at Texas and has the most wins at Talladega (six) among active drivers, most recently taking the checkered flag in 2021. He led five laps and was the Stage 2 winner in his last race here in October before a last crash knocked him back to 32nd.

Could this finally be the week that Keselowski snaps his 107-race winless streak? I wouldn't recommend betting more than a half-unit on any driver in this race, which could be among the most wild of the season. But it's hard not to like the No. 6 on Sunday.

Best odds: +1100 via bet365

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Long shot: Todd Gilliland ⭐⭐

In a race like this one, there are so many long shots worth a sprinkle. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a former Talladega winner with the speed and aggressiveness to do it again, Daniel Suarez cashed as a long shot in February at a similar track at Atlanta, and Corey Lajoie has a history of strong results on superspeedways, including a P4 at Daytona in February.

I like all of those drivers at long odds, but my favorite target is Gilliland, who owns the third-best average finish (14th) of any active driver on this track. The 23-year-old finished 12th, 10th, and seventh in his last three races here, and he led a combined 74 laps in two superspeedway races this season.

That includes a career-best 58 laps led at Atlanta before a late wreck ended his day. That could easily happen again on Sunday, but at these odds, I'll gladly take my chances on the No. 38 hanging near the front of the pack.

Best odds: +5000 via FanDuel

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Prop bet: Ford to win ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Instead of laying a full unit on any individual driver, I'd rather take the entire Ford field with this bet that includes favorites Keselowski, Blaney, and Logano - who all have multiple wins here - as well as compelling long shots Gilliland and Austin Cindric.

Ford is still looking for its first win of the season, but it's been arguably the best manufacturer on superspeedways with the Next Gen car and has won 12 of the last 18 races at Talladega, including Blaney's win at the last race here in October.

Logano led the most laps at Daytona and Blaney came inches away from a win at Atlanta, while Keselowski is always a threat on this track. While I don't love laying short odds on either of those drivers, I love this price on Ford to end its winless streak on Sunday.

Best odds: +180 via Caesars

Pick to win: Ty Gibbs ⭐⭐

Like I've mentioned throughout, I wouldn't recommend staking your weekend wagers on any individual driver. That said, I do like Gibbs' chances of becoming the 13th driver to win their first-ever race at Talladega.

Last year's Rookie of the Year has been one of the fastest cars on the track all season long, ranking fourth in laps led (200) and average finish (10.6), and he's mostly avoided calamity as one of three drivers to place in the top 20 in all nine races to this point.

It'd be shocking if the top favorites in this race all reached the final lap on Sunday, which could open the door for Gibbs to finally capture that elusive checkered flag.

Best odds: +2200 via BetMGM

Previous Geico 500 winners

Geico 500 info

• Date: Sunday, April 21 at 3 p.m. ET
• Track: Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, Ala.
• How to watch: FOX
• Defending winner: Kyle Busch

Geico 500 picks made Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET

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• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)