1. 01-16-17 12:22 PM #1
    Lightning
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    Lightning australian open thread

    Back again, friends. Can't guarantee I'll be able to post all of my plays in here but I'll do my best.

    BET ONE - BET365 - ONE STAKE
    Francis Tiafoe -2.5 games - $1.8

    BET TWO - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE

    Rafael Nadal -8.5 games - $1.83

    BET THREE - CROWNBET - ONE STAKE
    Mott/Gasquet UNDER 29 games - $1.87
    This might surprise you because I'm actually backing another Aussie down below to cover his line, but fading Mott in this bet. It all comes down to the situation and opponent. Gasquet is light-years ahead of Ferrer at this point, so backing him to cover a big spread is easier to do.
    Mott is solid, but really that's it. Gasquet is simply better in every department, has the baseline game to completely overwhelm the young Australian.

    BET FOUR - BET365 - TWO STAKES
    Joao Sousa to WIN - $1.6

    Tailing the SBR writer on this one. I'm not going to re-write his writeup so if you want to see a reason why we're taking this, head on over and read it.
    BET FIVE - CROWNBET - ONE STAKE
    Omar Jasika +7.5 games - $1.9
    BET SIX - BET365 - HALF STAKE
    Jasika to WIN - $6

    We finally have to accept, however sad, that Ferrer is fading, and fast. He's now 23rd in the world, and will most likely slump lower this year unless something drastic happens. He's defensive ability is still strong, but he's lost a lot of offensive power, and that's hurting him because he can't put opponents away. He still grinds and grinds and gets everything back, but his opponents can just play attacking shot after attacking shot because Ferrer's shots aren't as deep and well placed.
    Jasika is a young Aussie that hasn't really lived up to expections so far. He does put in very spirited performances in front of home crowds, however, and backing his spread is never a bad idea. He has a really quick serve and forehand, and I think he can put enough pressure on Ferrer to elicit a few errors. I think Jasika covers comfortably, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him win this match outright.




    Cheers!
    Last edited by Lightning; 01-16-17 at 12:26 PM.
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  2. 01-16-17 12:27 PM #2
    Lightning
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    Apologies for the shit formatting. I click edit to fix it but everytime I change it it keeps going back to what it was.
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  3. 01-16-17 01:10 PM #3
    Don_Omarion
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    good luck , hope you achieve all of them pal
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  4. 01-17-17 10:28 AM #4
    Lightning
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    AUSTRALIAN OPEN DAY THREE (18/01)

    Not a good day to start off which is unfortunate.

    BET ONE - PINNACLE - ONE STAKE

    Tomas Berdych -2.5 sets - $2.3


    BET TWO - SPORTSBET - HALF STAKE

    John Isner -2.5 games x De Minaur +4.5 games - $3.35


    BET THREE - BET365 - ONE STAKE

    Dudi Sela to WIN - $1.5


    BET FOUR - SPORTSBET - TWO STAKES

    Stan Wawrinka -4.5 games - $1.83


    BET FIVE - CROWNBET - ONE STAKE

    Nick Kyrgios -2.5 sets - $1.87
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  5. 01-17-17 10:29 AM #5
    Lightning
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don_Omarion View Post
    good luck , hope you achieve all of them pal
    Thanks man. Didn't have the best start but if you gave me the option, I'd take them all again.
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  6. 01-17-17 05:43 PM #6
    Jeff_Black
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    Is it just me or do we not know something about Berdych or Harrison???
    Those odds are ridiculously good
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  7. 01-18-17 12:49 PM #7
    Lightning
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    Better yesterday...


    AUSTRALIAN OPEN - MENS

    BET ONE - BET365 - TWO STAKES

    Gilles Simon -7.5 games - $1.72


    BET TWO - BET365 - ONE STAKE

    Gael Monfils -5.5 games - $1.8


    BET THREE - ONE STAKE EACH

    Andrew Whittington to WIN - $3.25 (BET365)
    Andrew Whittington +3.5 games - $2.15 (Crownbet)


    BET FOUR - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE

    Nadal/Baghdatis UNDER 30.5 games - $2

    AUSTRALIAN OPEN - WOMENS

    BET FIVE - BET365 - ONE STAKE

    Ana Konjuh to WIN - $1.9


    BET SIX - BET365 - ONE STAKE

    Naomi Osaka +5.5 games - $2


    Cheers!
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  8. 01-18-17 12:51 PM #8
    Lightning
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_Black View Post
    Is it just me or do we not know something about Berdych or Harrison???
    Those odds are ridiculously good
    I reckon. $2.3 was crazy
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  9. 01-19-17 10:41 AM #9
    Lightning
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    AUSTRALIAN OPEN DAY FIVE (20/01)

    Day Four Record: (4-2 ATS, 0-2 w/l)
    Overall Record: (10-7-2 ATS, 0-6 w/l)

    Interesting to note that I haven't won a bet where I recommended someone to win, but I've pulled ahead on lines. Also sorry lads for the lack of write ups today and next few days. Family have come back from overseas after 6 weeks and I'm leaving on a trip in three days so everything is a little hectic right now. I'm going to attach tomorrow's tips to this post as well.

    AUSTRALIAN OPEN - MENS
    BET ONE - CROWNBET - TWO STAKES
    Jo Wilfried Tsonga -2.5 games - $1.9
    BET TWO - BET365 - TWO STAKES
    Tomic to WIN - $1.72
    BET THREE - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE
    Viktor Troicki to WIN A SET - $1.8

    AUSTRALIAN OPEN - WOMEN
    BET FOUR - BET365 - ONE STAKE
    Elina Svitolina to WIN - $1.5
    BET FIVE - PINNACLE - ONE STAKE
    Sorana Cirstea to WIN - $2.88


    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    AUSTRALIAN OPEN DAY SIX (21/01)
    Day Five Record:
    Overall Record:


    BET ONE - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE
    David Goffin -2.5 set handicap - $3
    BET TWO - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE
    Gael Monfils -5.5 games - $1.8
    BET THREE - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE
    Simon/Raonic OVER 3.5 sets - $2
    BET FOUR - BET365 - ONE STAKE
    Richard Gasquet to WIN - $2.37
    BET FIVE - BET365 - ONE STAKE
    Ekaterina Makarova to WIN - $2.5
    There might be a play on the Nadal match as well. Lots of value on this side of the draw.
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  10. 01-20-17 07:56 AM #10
    Jeff_Black
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    Hindsight says who on earth would make Riske that short of a favourite lol, nice gem there from you.
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  11. 01-20-17 08:05 AM #11
    bettingmosquito
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    Hi. So you are on Gasquet... was thinking to back him as well. Good luck
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  12. 01-21-17 09:43 AM #12
    Lightning
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_Black View Post
    Hindsight says who on earth would make Riske that short of a favourite lol, nice gem there from you.
    That's it! Was expecting evens haha
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  13. 01-21-17 09:44 AM #13
    Lightning
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    AUSTRALIAN OPEN DAY SEVEN (22/01)


    Day Six Record: (3-0 ATS, 1-1 w/l)
    Overall Record: (15-7-2 ATS, 4-9 w/l)


    Really good day today, with +4.3 stakes. Hopefully I can keep that up. Sorry again for the anus formatting, but I'm taking this straight from facebook so unfortunately it does that.



    BET ONE - CROWNBET - ONE STAKE
    Andy Murray/Mischa Zverev UNDER 28.5 match games - $1.9
    BET TWO - CROWNBET - ONE STAKE EACH
    Jo Wilfried Tsonga -5.5 games - $1.85
    Jo Wilfried Tsonga -2.5 set handicap - $2.5
    BET THREE - BET365 - TWO STAKES
    Venus Williams -3.5 games - $1.9
    BET FOUR - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE
    Angelique Kerber -4.5 games - $2
    Cheers!
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  14. 01-22-17 10:01 AM #14
    Lightning
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    AUSTRALIAN OPEN DAY EIGHT (23/01)







    DAY SEVEN RECORD: (3-3 ATS, 0-0 w/l)




    OVERALL RECORD: (18-10-2 ATS, 4-10 w/l)






    Giving two days because I'm flying tomorrow and I won't be able to give tips then.







    BET ONE - CROWNBET - TWO STAKES




    Grigor Dimitrov -6.5 games - $1.8







    BET TWO - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE




    Rafael Nadal -4.5 games - $1.73







    BET THREE - BET365 - ONE STAKE




    Jennifer Brady to WIN - $2.5






    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------







    AUSTRALIAN OPEN DAY NINE (24/01)






    DAY EIGHT RECORD:




    OVERALL RECORD:









    BET ONE - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE




    Wawrinka -2.5 games - $1.83







    BET TWO - BET365 - ONE STAKE




    Coco Vandegwhe to WIN - $2.65







    BET THREE - BET365 - ONE STAKE




    Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to WIN - $1.9







    Cheers!




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  15. 01-22-17 10:01 AM #15
    Lightning
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    I literally give up with formatting hey
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  16. 01-24-17 09:07 PM #16
    Lightning
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    AUSTRALIAN OPEN DAY NINE (25/01)DAY EIGHT RECORD: (1-0 ATS, 1-1 w/l)
    OVERALL RECORD: (20-12-2 ATS, 5-12 w/l)
    BET ONE - BET365 - ONE STAKE
    Grigor Dimitrov -2.5 games - $1.72
    I have a futures bet on Goffin but I don't see how he's going to win this. He's more consistent than Dimitrov, yes, but unlike Thiem, the Bulgarian has the variety of shot. Goffin beat Thiem because Thiem tried to smash every ball, but against a guy that uses slices, drop shots and is ultimately too consistent, I don't think Goffin has the weapons to keep up. I would absolutely love him to prove me wrong, but the value is on Dimitrov in this situation.
    BET TWO - SPORTSBET - HALF STAKE
    Nadal/Raonic UNDER 3.5 sets - $3
    BET FOUR - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE
    Total Aces UNDER 32.5 - $1.96
    Cheers guys!
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  17. 01-25-17 07:17 PM #17
    Lightning
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    AUSTRALIAN OPEN DAY TEN (25/01)


    DAY NINE RECORD: (3-0 ATS, 0-0 W/L)
    OVERALL RECORD: (23-12-2 ATS, 5-12 w/l)


    BET ONE - CROWNBET - ONE STAKE
    Wawrinka/Federer UNDER 42.5 match games - $1.85
    You would have thought that these guys would have had some phenomenal battles over the years but in grand slams, the over-under line is 1-5. Going to run with the extreme trend on this one.
    BET TWO - BET365 - ONE STAKE
    Roger Federer -1.5 games - $1.8
    I think Roger is the value here, regardless of who wins this match. Like his past matches, he's being undervalued.
    Cheers!
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