[Chaz22]

Day 1
Vesely ML vs Rosol 2.9 @ pinnacle
1unit

Rosol has been more or less on fire and would be senseless to pick against him, specifically on such a struggling player as Vesely right now is.
But my thought here is that Rosol will simply drop his level significantly and Vesely on th eother hand will play better. That is what happens with these top50 players - they tend to rise and fall in loops and Rosol is certainly one of such. But don't put a lot in this as it depends on Vesely more that on Rosol. If he'll keep sucking badly, Rosol will sneak in the next round.

Paire ML vs Dodig 2.1 @ pinnacle
1unit

Almost similar story here, just that the better player has been out of form, and Dodig looks convincing. But here I think Paire will be motivated to give all he can, as this is not any cheap tourney.
Dodig gets a lot of respect here because of his indoor palying ability.

Istomin +1.5 Sets vs Cilic 2.9 @ pinnacle
1unit

Being on such a rough patch Istomin faces seeminlgy worst possible opponent in Marin Cilic. But then again Cilic himself has been looking quite average to say the least. Loss to Zverev proves that he has not found his game yet and he's one of those players that plays better whn getting in later stages of the tourns. So this 1st round can be again tricky for him and 1 set can be lost easily.

[Chaz22]

Adding more:

Schwartzman ML vs Dologopolov ML 2.73 @ pinnacle
2u

I believe that on clay Diego Schwartzman is euqally good if not better than Dolgopolov just because Ukrainian likes playing fast and agressive tennis while his opponent is a classy baller that will defend all day. Also Dolgopolov's commitment can always be questioned. He might just be using this game to warm up for Rio so unless Diego screws this up himself think this is a good investment.

Cervantes ML vs Giraldo 2.21 @ pinnacle
2u

Giraldo's dominant days are long gone. He has played better recently but not convincingly enough. Cervantes should pull out this one.

[RyanMozambique]

With you on Schwartzman and Cervantes small!

Good hit on Vesely btw

[Chaz22]

With you on Schwartzman and Cervantes small!

Good hit on Vesely btw

Thanks. Didnt really expect ir to be that smooth for Vesely.

Meanwhile Paire and (specifically) Istomin couldnt deliver.

[novicebeast]

Paire was playing like a retarded school kid....

[Chaz22]

Summary of Day 1

2W-3L
Daily Profit: +1.36u
Overall Profit: +1.36u

Disappointing losses by Paire and Cervantes. And nice recovery by Schwartzman.

Day 2

Rotterdam

Chung ML vs GG Lopez 3.05 @ Pinnacle
1 unit

I agree with GG Lopez being favourite here, but I dont agree with the odds. Yes, Chung has a rather disappointing start of the season but on a day he can certainly be a better player.
Small risk here is the right choice IMO.

Seppi ML vs Muller 2.24 @ pinnacle
1 unit

You never know what to expect from Seppi, and the way he has entered this season (4-4) just proves that. Muller on the other hand has been impressive.
But same as yesterday with Vesely-Rosol encounter I think Muller will drop it a bit, he had a good run in Montp. where he was stopped only by eventual tourn. winner.
Seppi on the other hand played only 2 matches there so did not give it a lot there and could go for it in this 500pointer.

Will add more plays during the day.

[slayer14]

mullers is a mug lol

[Chaz22]

mullers is a mug lol

Couldnt agree more. He just wouldnt resist winning.

[Jeff_Black]

Good picks, you got dudded with Seppi though, very dodgy error on break point when he hit the volley out. Couldn't believe it

[terrenceross]

Good picks, you got dudded with Seppi though, very dodgy error on break point when he hit the volley out. Couldn't believe it

Watched the whole match and had Muller -1.5 games. Seppi was having his way with Muller early but for whatever reason, that seemed to stop in the 3rd set. Second set was some spectacular tennis and imo, Seppi was not that invested in winning after he lost that tiebreak in the second.

[Jeff_Black]

Watched the whole match and had Muller -1.5 games. Seppi was having his way with Muller early but for whatever reason, that seemed to stop in the 3rd set. Second set was some spectacular tennis and imo, Seppi was not that invested in winning after he lost that tiebreak in the second.

Yep there was some quality there. Most rallies in the third set seemed to be on Muller's racquet whether he hit a winner or UE. Seppi didn't really have control of the third like you said.

[Chaz22]

For the evening session i would add the following selections

BA

Olivo ML vs Bagnis 2.81 @ pinnacle
1u

Bagnis is higher-ranked player but that's about his only advantage over Olivo. Maybe I missed out something but to me this should be pretty even battle.
Not saying Olivo will win but he's certainly capeable.

Memphis

Krajicek ML vs Millman 2.82 @ pinnacle
1u

Similar to Olivo game I think Millman's chances are overrated. Yes, he has played well lately, but this match will show if he can stay consistent which i doubt will be the case.

[Chaz22]

Summary of Day 2

Saw the Olivo-Bagnis match and omg these average clay courters can get your nerves. I dont know how Ferrer is doing, but he should be able of destroying Olivo so -6 is the choice.


2W-2L (Total: 4W-5L)
Daily Profit: +1.86u
Overall Profit: +3.22u

Day 3

Rotterdam

Starting from this point I usually fail, so my suggestion is either to not follow or fade me. No joke.

Kohlschreiber -2.5 vs Dodig 2.00 @ pinnacle
1u

Despite Dodig's latest performance I think Kuhelmaster is the right choice here. This can get tight though for at least one set, cause Dodig is one hack of a server, but overall i think -2.5 is a nice gift to have and german will cover it. Dumb prediction is something as 7-6, 6-4 in Schreibers favour.

Sousa +3 vs Agut 2.00 @ pinnacle
1u

I hate going against in-form players like Agut, and the small spread of 3 is most likely not going to be enough. But then again Sousa has improved and the potential letdown for Agut awaits him at some point, so I think this will be a battle. Over also can be considered.

[Chaz22]

Almagro -2 vs Delbonis 2.11 @ pinnacle
2u

DelBonis had a gruelling match against Fognini yesterday while Almagro had a day off. Also spaniard has been looking sharper finally so I assume he'll be ready to attck from the first ball.
Del Bonis though has a decent serve so this doubtfully will be one-sided affair. Still such a small spread should be covered by a stronger player today.

Memphis

Kukushkin -1.5 games vs Kudla 2.07 @ pinnacle
2u

Even if Kukushkin isn't fully healthy he is playing against Kudla whom I have no trust at all. Maybe one set will be even, but Kukushkin should at the end get this win.

[Chaz22]

Summary of Day 3

4W-0L (Total: 8W-5L)
Daily Profit: +6.36u
Overall Profit: +9.58u

oh what a day...what a lovely day !!

Day 4

Rotterdam

Let's have a look at each match

Chardy - Mahut

Chardy escaped a narrow win yesterday against Lucky sucker Donskoy who at the end was not that lucky. This suggests that Jeremy is playing nowhere near his best tennis.
Means Mahut has a chance. He so far looks good so wouldn't be surprising if he won this one.

Mahut ML 2.300 @ pinnacle
1u

Chung - Troicki

Troicki as well did not play to his standart against Kuznetsov although Russian has seemingly improved (haven't seen any match of his). Anyways, Chung can be a threat here as well.
Troicki will probably grind this out though so taking game handicap here.

Chung +3 2.02 @ pinnacle
1u

Vesely - Agut

Most interesting match here in Holland, as Im still waiting for Agut to collapse. There were some signs of it yesterday but he managed to win.
It might be different story today if he gets it going from the first point he'll probably get it done in 2 sets. But I'll trust Vesely to take at least one set.

Vesely +1.5 sets 2.11 @ pinnacle
1u

* if Mahut and Chung selections both bring profit I'll go for it and change the pick here from +1.5 sets to complete Vesely ML ~4.300

Baghdatis - Klizan

I try to avoid Bagshits matches as much as possible. He's so unreliable. Klizan obviously not so effective indoors, but I woulds still pick him as he IMO is playing better at the moment.

Klizan ML 2.300 @ pinnacle
1u

Simon - Zverev

The only game where I agree on favourite completely. Yes, Zverev is a competetive beast, but there is such a small chance Simon will let this one out of his hand. It can take tie-breaks, it can even take 3 sets, but Simon will win fo the clash against his countryman in quaters. I will not invest in this match unless at least 3 of 4 previouse selection are succesful. I'll take over.

Only if at least 3 previouse selections are good >
over 23 2.03 @ pinnacle
1u


Will probably take couple of BA and Memphis matches as well later on.

[Chaz22]

Adding couple of more selections

Memphis

Granollers ML 2.300 vs Young @ pinnacle
1u

Young's season hasn't started as he'd like to. Not a lot of match practise does not boost his chances either.
Granollers certainly is not to be trusted, but indoors I think favour him. He did lookok against Jaziri.

Fritz 2.5 2.03 vs Johnoson @ pinnacle
1u

Either Johnson kills this or it's gonna be a bit of battle. I lean towards the second scenario again jsut because he hasn't looked good so far this season, his first match here so some time will be
needed to adapt and kid will be fired up for this. So anything can happen.

From BA -6 Ferrer looks tempting, but is just a bit too much cuz' often Ferrer starts slow.
Giraldo/Cuevas should be a match of the day, and I'm alomost convinced in Giraldo's return but this match will determine it.
Schwarztman and probably Nadal should win their matches.

[saints1856]

I tailed you on Klizan over 'Bagshits'.... Good work Chazz.

[girlscoutcookies]

[Birdman557]

Sharp

[Chaz22]

You're all welcome. Lets keep it coming.

[Chaz22]

Summary of Day 4

5W-2L (Total: 13W-7L)
Daily Profit: +3.77u
Overall Profit: +13.35u

Quaters

My strategy in tennis selections is to always try going to picks with 2+ odds. And it's quite successful untill you reach this stage of the tournament cause what happens here is that favourties usually win. Sometimes by margin, sometimes comfortably - but they win. So let's have a deeper look of our todays matches. First as always comes Holland.

Rotterdam

Like I said it is a rare occasion when underdog of 3+ odss pulls out a victory in this stage of the tournament. Last year in 56 matches (500 atp tourns.) only 6 times such dog managed to win.
Now this Rotterdam 500 sure does not feel like 500 event, as the highest ranked player is Cilic (13) compared to last year where you had Wawa, Berdych, Murray and Raonic (all of them played in 1/4s).
So can dogs have a better chance here? I would say yes, but let's have a look which one has the more realistic chance.

Troicki vs Mahut

Mahut grabbed a nice win yesterday. It was not easy and Chardy was not at his best we know, Mahut however knows what it takes to play in latter stages of the tournaments so he will put a fight today.
On the other hand we have Troicki who is so confident now (at least that's what he says in his interviews) that you would think top 10 is only matter of time. In reality however he is not so good as in
Sydney or even in Sofia where he reached the final. I do believe he's just a bit exhausted but he sure is a fighter and he'll definetly want to have that potential revenge match against Agut.
Can he loose to Mahut? Sure, but i don't think it will happen. As Mahut himself has been playing quite a lot of tennis (4 matches here) so he'll feel it as well.
I think Troicki will pull it out, but it will be a longer match. Handicap of 3 looks tempting, but I will take over here as both of them for sure will have ups and downs.

over 22.5 1.99 @ pinnacle
1u

Klizan vs Agut

Here I think we will have our first favourite scalp. Klizan has been playing some stable tennis and Agut is not. He managed to escape yesterday, don't think it will happen today.
I would take handicap but you have to go for it here as I really think Agut will loose this match just because he's played a lot and it's so hard to maintain the level of tennis against these players.
If he wins though I will fade him next round against Troicki or even Mahut. It would be a schocker if he managed to get into final again.

Klizan ML 3.16 @ pinnacle
1u

Other 2 quaters I think will be won by favourites, although Cilic might loose but the value on Schreiber is so low. Monfils should put the kid away. Still can't belive Simon lost yesterday.


BA and Memphins will follow later on.

[ManeOnFire]

I think Klizan can take it too, or at least would be surprised if it isn't a close match.

[ProDane]

Great previews Chaz!
I'm on a 0,5 unit parlay on Mahut+Klizan / So far Mahut is dominating his game with style

[Brownie]

Alexander Zverev +1.5 sets v Gael Monfils@1.9 – marathon

Sacha what a game yesterday. Break down in last set and he still was able to turn it around. Some of the balls he hit in last set it was just tennis on the highest possible level. Last time those 2 met each other was in Marseille 2015. Geal won that game, but since then the young German improved his game a lot. Already this season he was able to beat players like: Cilic, Pospisil or Simon. He looks very solid indoor. Winning a set for Zverev looks like a certainty, I wouldn’t be surprise if he beat the Frenchman

[baseballstud]

Wow mahut went to town there. Great write ups though. Lots of thought

[Brownie]

Pablo Cuevas+1.5 sets v David Ferrer @2.13 – marathon

Cuevas loves clay, this is his favourite surface, typical clay court specialist. In previous round Pablo beat Santiago Giraldo in 2 easy sets. His balance on the clay for last 52 weeks is 21-9. According to www.tennispundit.com Pablo Cuevas occupies 12^th position in ranking for clay surface. I’m fully aware that Ferrer is also very good clay court specialist, but he is almost 34 years old. Games like first round in Doha at the beginning of the year when he lost with Illya Marchenko will happen to him this season more often than in the past. It’s going to be a very close match with a lot of long rallies and single points will decide the winner. Winning a set for Pablo looks like a certainty, I wouldn’t be surprise if he beat the Spaniard.

[Jinge]

Zverev had some physical problems yesterday during the 3houres Simon match. Although not serious I find any bet in his favor questionable. Monfils will be something different than anything he faced this tournament. But I started dodging Monfils years ago cause the one day he plays like a champ and the next day its the complete opposite. He is so unpredictable.

[Chaz22]

Was weird for Troicki to not wake up at all. Mahut seems to be on the mission so for sure tomorrow we'll be looking into the odds against most likely Agut as he seems taking care of Klizan early on.

Adding games.

BA

From all 4 match-ups there are 2 of them that caught my eye.

Lajovic vs Thiem is first of them.

Alhtough many claim that Thiem is best when palying on clay you just cannot ignore the fact that this is a bit different clay in South A with all the altitudes etc. He has never played here and you could see he struggled against Elias and Busta. Will it be different against Lajovic who was not that bad against big John? Maybe, but I like the spread on Lajovic here.

Lajovic 3.5 2.13 vs Thiem @ pinnacle
2u

And second

Ferrer vs Cuevas

I just think Cuevas is strong opponent for Ferrer or for anyone on clay. Ferrer obviously was not tested against Olivo so that can trouble him.
Age I dont think is a huge matter 34 vs 30....not a big deal. But yes, I vote for this being a 3-set battle so for sure take Cuevas +1.5 sets

Cuevas +1.5 sets 2.27 @ pinnacle
2u

Tsonga vs Alamgro sounds promising but French man most likely will slice it up.

And certainly I aint touchin Nadal. The outcome range for Nadal's matches can start from him winning 6-1 6-1 to him loosing in 3 sets. so, thanks but no.

Memphis actually promises to be the boring tournament.

Nishikori, Querrey and even Young should qualify.

as for Fritz vs Becker....I guess Fritz but since his game is still unknown there is no point for risk here.

[Chaz22]

Great escape happened here. Not much else to say.

[AceKingHigh]

What's up for today ?

[Chaz22]

Yesterday was a brutal experience. Cant add much for today. Think Klizan and La Monf will take it. But no money invested on them.

[Chaz22]

Summary before the finals

Total: 14W-8L
Overall Profit: +13.89u


all in all it was a nice week. Had some drama in Quaters, but it turned out ok.

Missed previewing semis but I noticed some piked Thiem over Nadal and I agree that was a good investment.


Finals

Rotterdam

Klizan vs La Monf

So mr.escapologist will face the Clown. It almost feels like this tournament is meant for Klizan but it will be tough task to overcome a better playing opponent as Monfils is. But it won't be easy ride for favourite as well. So taking some handicap is the best way to approcah here.
Klizan has fought so far so he won't give up. Think he has a decent chance to win a set.

Klizan +1.5 sets 2.02 @ pinnacle
2u

Thiem - Almagro

This is the match where underdog has the biggest chance. Yeah, Thiem proved me wrong for not trusting him but he did start slow.
Beating Nadal is never easy but it's not that hard as well nowadays so not much credit for that.
Almagro was lucky to get Ferrer who had to play 2 matches on the same day. But I think Almagro is more or less back to his old form.
It will be a single-backhand battle in which I think Almagro will come out as a winner.

Almagro ML 2.4 vs Thiem @ pinnacle
2u

Nishikori - Fritz

I sometimes catch my self in not believing that much in new talants that emerge. And we might have a case here but then I looked of his path to this final and the only guy that stands out is Johnson who is simply playing nowhere near his best. So now going against this crazy Jap that has won here 3 past years...I dunno. Does not sound promising for Fritz.

Nishikori -5 2.27 @ pinnacle
1u


That's it for this week. Let's enjoy great finals and next week new 3 tourns are to played. Already checking some options.