[jjgold]

Another early round loss on Clay

He seems healthy too and playing ok

I think very few tour wins left for him in his amazing career

[EaglesPhan36]

He's not playing okay by any means. No confidence. Lots of nerves as he's admitted. Yes got a month to straighten out, but it doesn't look like he's going to be anywhere close to the level needed to win a tournament let alone a Slam. If Djokovic doesn't win the French this year, he never will.

[JC1186]

If Djokovic doesn't win the French this year, he never will.

If Novak doesn't win it this year, he'll still win it a bunch of times in the years after that.

Your statement is much more fitting for Rafa. If he doesn't win RG this year, he probably never will (again).

[EaglesPhan36]

Disagree JC on Djokovic at least. The French has been a huge mental hurdle for Djocareeras his career has progressed. This year looks the perfect scenario for him. Failure to win through fluke or whatever this year would really re-enforce that. Maybe he gets easier roads and can win it somewhere down the line, but I don't think it will be much better than it is right now. Just seems a perfect storm, but certainly he should be in position to be in the final for several more years assuming good health.

Do agree on Rafa somewhat. Would be a shock to me if he somehow won, but he has always found a way. This year though he looks horrid.

[marniblitz]

Like a few of you, I'm sure, I looked at this match earlier today, saw the crazy odds and was temped to back Fogs, but immediately thought, "Twice in a row? No way."

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Book is currently offering "No grand slam wins 2015" for Nadal at even money. Wondering if a significant wager isn't warranted.

[Snowball]

Book is currently offering "No grand slam wins 2015" for Nadal at even money. Wondering if a significant wager isn't warranted.

who wants to wait that long for even money ?

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Yea, not me. I bet NFL team wins over/under sometimes and that's bad enough. On the other hand, Nasal is still favored for the French and Joker is +150. That might be worth grabbing.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Other book now has Joker -150 for RG.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

5D down to +115.

Eff it, grabbing +150 for 2 units while I can.

[makman]

Djokovic has his best chance this year, because Nadal is a mess right now.
But i really dont agree this is his last chance to win it. Djokovic is playing great now on all surfaces. But he was not so good on clay until 5 years ago. He improved his game greatly. None of the other top players had this much improvement through their careers.
Yeah, he never could win RG, it was always mentally difficult. Bur for whom it was easy in the last ten years ??? For Federer ???
For noone. Because there was the king of clay, winning 9 times in the last 10 years. When there is an opponent like Nadal, French open is never easy.
Nadal is a different story. What really happened to him? No significant injury. Some people say, he is finished physically, due to extreme use of steroids. That is possible. 10 years he played like an animal and maybe now it takes its toll. who knows...

But what surprised me today watching Nadal against Fognini, It was not the same Nadal we watched in Monte Carlo.
I dont see that he will be like today when he is in RG.

Nadal needs this RG title, more than Djokovic needs. It really may be his last chance to make it 10

[EaglesPhan36]

I think some of it might be physical, but it really appears to be 90% or better - MENTAL. This is reminiscent of Federer 2013 to me. He got the mental "yips" for lack of a better term and had major difficulties keeping any sort of consistent play together.

For me, that is Nadal in a nut shell right now. Maybe he doesn't trust his body from all the injuries or something, but it seems mostly mental to me. He lacks confidence in almost everything he does.

It would be a blow for him to not win Roland Garros, but I think expectations have to be pretty tempered at this point for him.

I still agree to disagree with the thoughts on Djokovic. You can never say with certainty you'll be in a certain position to win again. Injuries. Age. Skill decline. The Yips. Look at Del Potro ...

They come and go, so while you would certainly expect Djokovic to have more opportunities to win more Slams - just look at his last few years since the robotic 2011 where he won 3/4 Slams and seemingly every tournament.

Yes, he has won four more Slams, but only one per year - losing in five Finals. I just think again this is the perfect storm scenario for him to get that missing piece of the puzzle. I don't even think he's always playing at an A level and he's still been able to win about everything this year. The guy who has blocked him from winning RG is obviously playing at a reduced level and there isn't anyone on tour right now that I think you would say can beat Djokovic in a best of 5 on clay right now.

[CommonSense]

I think Nadal will win French again. Just like last year, looks like he's just pacing himself in these tournaments to prepare for the French. As he gets older, he doesn't need to go all out to win these tournaments, just the big ones. Nadal at +175 for the French is an excellent investment.

[Theboy1dur]

I don't normally post. I read everyone's threads and posts because I want to learn about the game more than gamble on it. As I see, even those who know the most cannot gamble tennis the way you can other sports. Simply because players have to pace themselves for upcoming tournies, etc...

Anyways, I watched that match, and Fognini's hits seemed sharper, harder, and farther than Nadal's. You could tell right away, Nadal had no chance. I ask you guys, is Fognini that good? I thought he was the type of player who just likes the tennis lifestyle, etc.. doesn't care to win, like Monfils. Because to me, Fognini played really good. And when nadal exited. He seemed content. Like he knew. Some otherposter mentioned about his OCD. I clearly saw that. He does the same routine. Pulls his shorts out of his ass, tucks hair back into headband, then bounces ball. It's routine. And his legs have been pumped with so much roids, its so obvious. his quads are bulging out of the skin.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't think anyone in their right mind would think Nadal is pacing himself for RG. He is genuinely struggling and not just against top tier guys. We're talking Masters & 500 level tourneys. Guys like Rafa & Djokovic show up to win these, not use them as practice.

Fognini played a great 1st set, but that 2nd set yesterday was garbage from both & still Nadal could have won it going away. But he's not right at the moment. Old days, Rafa wins that 2nd set 6-1 or 6-2.

[beefcake]

Screw Joker and nadal..this is perfect betting oppurtunity to grab a hell of a longshot in nadals half to make the final. This is where the true value will lay when the FO bracket comes out.Quite possibly a 2nd/3rd tier player on clay could make the finals or better yet give you a hell of a hedge opp in the SF...Examples of monfils,Klizan,cuevas,fogshit,robredo come to mind...

[CommonSense]

Take Fed at +2500!

All this debate is useless anyway. If we all knew as much as we think we do, we'll making a living betting tennis or at least making a profit. One thing for sure, Nadal will never be as good as he was but he's still damn good!

[Hardcoar]

I don't think anyone in their right mind would think Nadal is pacing himself for RG. He is genuinely struggling and not just against top tier guys. We're talking Masters & 500 level tourneys. Guys like Rafa & Djokovic show up to win these, not use them as practice.

Fognini played a great 1st set, but that 2nd set yesterday was garbage from both & still Nadal could have won it going away. But he's not right at the moment. Old days, Rafa wins that 2nd set 6-1 or 6-2.

I agree entirely, but that does not mean he won't play a lot better at RG.

[EaglesPhan36]

It also doesn't mean he'll be any different than he has been for the past couple of months. He desperately needs to get some confidence/form in Madrid & Rome. He was miles better at this point last year and people were questioning whether he could do it. It's just getting real late for him to "find it" and I think tough to think he'll do that at Roland Garros if he's done little more than he has done the last couple of weeks during the next month.

I hope he turns it around because he's still one of the great stories in tennis this time of year. Unmatched dominance at one tournament, but that has been the case for a lot of tournaments this time of year for him that he no longer dominates.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Take Fed at +2500!

All this debate is useless anyway. If we all knew as much as we think we do, we'll making a living betting tennis or at least making a profit. One thing for sure, Nadal will never be as good as he was but he's still damn good!

Those odds are fairly attractive, but I only grabbed Novak @ +150 because those odds are likely to be in the negative soon, as demonstrated by one book I use:

			401101	ALL BETS ACTION
			401102
			401103	RAFAEL NADAL			-110
			401104	NOVAK DJOKOVIC			-150
			401105	JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO			+2200
			401106	STAN WAWRINKA			+1400
			401107	KEI NISHIKORI			+1400
			401108	ANDY MURRAY			+1800
			401109	ROGER FEDERER			+1800
			401110	DAVID FERRER			+2200
			401111	GRIGOR DIMITROV			+3000
			401112	MARIN CILIC			+3800
			401113	ERNESTS GULBIS			+4500
			401114	JO-WILFRIED TSONGA			+4500
			401115	MILOS RAONIC			+4500
			401116	TOMAS BERDYCH			+2200
			401117	THE FIELD (ANY OTHER PLAYER)			+400

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Incidentally, they were slow to change the odds after the draw for the AO came out, and I swiftly hammered Serena and Novak for Maximum wagers


Unfortunately, however, I also hammered the Seahawks

[SirtySree]

Berdych anyone? Best player behind Novak this year and pushed him in the finals a week ago. Probably unlikely in 5 setters unless he gets some help with others creating upsets to ease his draw.

Ferrer maybe as well as he too has been good this year but he needs to suss out his ball toss asap. He is rallying and hitting as well as ever but his erratic ball toss is gifting opponents breaks atm.

Thought I'll just name two players not yet talked about but are always up there in slams altho doubt either will end up ever winning one.

[EaglesPhan36]

Every other year, Berdych has been losing the 1R at RG. This is that every other year. Last year he makes the quarters and gets routed by Gulbis. Think he's only made the semis once. Always worth a look at Slams, but like you said he needs help to get a sniff of a Final.

A guy no one mentions who has made the semis 2 of the last 3 years - Andy Murray. He won't be in Djokovic's half, so he's got that plus going for him to at least maybe get to a Final. He's usually quietly a great futures bet to win his quarter in Slams. He usually gets no respect and a halfway decent price depending on who else is in his draw. Of course you'd want to see him play a little in Madrid and/or Rome after his honeymoon to make sure his head is on straight.

I mean he's not going to win it, but I mean I really don't think anyone truly thinks it's going to be anyone but Djokovic or Nadal if Rafa can somehow get his head screwed on straight and find his game. David Ferrer arguably is having the 2nd best season IMO to Djokovic, but as you mentioned with his service issues - he's always prone to an upset to someone that maybe he should beat normally.

I would actually have said Raonic if he wasn't injured, but pretty doubtful he's going to be 100% if he makes it and he'd probably crack late in the tournament anyway or be exposed by Djokovic like he was last year. He is showing though that he is an all-surface threat to at least be in the mix. It's probably going to take a 2014 US Open like scenario where someone beats a top dog for him to get a shot at a Final though - although on hard courts, you never know.

[Hardcoar]

It also doesn't mean he'll be any different than he has been for the past couple of months. He desperately needs to get some confidence/form in Madrid & Rome. He was miles better at this point last year and people were questioning whether he could do it. It's just getting real late for him to "find it" and I think tough to think he'll do that at Roland Garros if he's done little more than he has done the last couple of weeks during the next month.

I hope he turns it around because he's still one of the great stories in tennis this time of year. Unmatched dominance at one tournament, but that has been the case for a lot of tournaments this time of year for him that he no longer dominates.

I agree. I consider it a moot point to explicitly make though since it's the basis of the entire post I first responded to. What wasn't understood from your first post however is the thing I did suggest.

As long as you take that point into consideration as well (which you may have been all along) I have nothing to add or dispute.

[EaglesPhan36]

What if I add an emoji?

[kdawgy]

I think it's important to note that Nadal apparently changed racquets about 6 weeks ago I believe. That's not a small thing to drop in when you're already off your A game.

I haven't heard anyone else talking about it, but when I see him framing and mis-hitting shots on clay I've got to think that may have something to do with it.

[Goat Milk]

Ferrer won't beat Federer in a major. Won't happen unless Fed chokes. Federer will beat any of these guys on clay except Nadal (if on his game) and Djokovic (if on his game too). You got to take it from Federer. I think he has a good chance to win the French. Clay is now Federer's second best surface. The hard courts are tailored more to Djokovic and Murray at this point. Federer or Nadal this year imo

[EaglesPhan36]

I think it's important to note that Nadal apparently changed racquets about 6 weeks ago I believe. That's not a small thing to drop in when you're already off your A game.

I haven't heard anyone else talking about it, but when I see him framing and mis-hitting shots on clay I've got to think that may have something to do with it.

Story I read says he just changed it for the Euro clay court season. So I think we're talking less than a month with the new racket which is just amazing to try at this point. Story goes that it gives more power and spin, but less control which as you explained would go towards all the mishits. Seems a terrible idea midseason, kinda like when Roger did it late in the year, I think two years ago. Wreaks of desperation.

Goat Milk still a fervent Federer fan. Don't really see any way Federer wins the French without one of those perfect storm scenarios.

[Snowball]

Great podcast here.

Rafael Nadal - When Does a Crisis Become a Crisis ?

http://thetennispodcast.libsyn.com/

[jjgold]

getting rolled again today by Murray

I say eh rarely wins any even t every again with all the good players in it

[ManeOnFire]

Jman knows his shit!

[jjgold]

tennis age catching up to him
He does not have the power nor speed right now

I say early exit in French too