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  1. #1
    bostonbruins
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    The Italian Job

    I have a hard time believing that favorites win more often than draw or lose in Italy Serie A or B, so I'm starting this thread to track just that.

    0.5 unit plays on the dog and draw when the lines are at least +200 for each. I'm no math expert but it looks like a favorite winning costs me 1 unit , any other results breaks even or better.


    This looks to be about the halfway point in the season so I think it's a good time to start, this is for research purposes only but it's something I need to do because soccer has been driving me crazy lately.


  2. #2
    bostonbruins
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    Good day to start huge favorite and it's the only game of the day

    Grosseto (+812) 0.5u
    Grosseto/Atalanta Draw (+330) 0.5u

  3. #3
    The Special One
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    you have a great point here... I find that HOME advantage is quite overrated in the Italian leagues and that the odds are inflated because of that... it is more profitable to pick a side in a game based on form and ability rather than simply being at home...

    I will follow this forum and hope that you discover a profitable trend

  4. #4
    bostonbruins
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    I understand the win percentage will be very low but I'm only interested in the end result


    Record: 0-2 -1u



    Pescara (+715) 0.5u
    Pescara/Siena Draw (+309) 0.5u

  5. #5
    hustla
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    If you can tolerate the high variance, you will make some profit with this stuff, good luck

  6. #6
    bozeman
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    man it would be easier just to spend half a day going through some website from the history of those leagues and not waste time on a 55-60 percent system

  7. #7
    bostonbruins
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    I'm not interested in history, I'm looking at the 2nd half of this season, and if these bets hit 55-60 % I wouldn't exactly say it's waste of time since the average line will be over +200.

  8. #8
    The Special One
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    Keep going BB. Follow your first instinct...

  9. #9
    bostonbruins
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    Got lines from Bodog because I slept late , might have missed out on a few games

    Record 0-4 -2u



    Triestina +300 LOSS
    Triestina/Albinoleffe Draw +215 WIN

    Frosinone +380 LOSS
    Frosinone/Empoli Draw +225 LOSS

    Padova +350 LOSS
    Padova/Novara Draw +240 WIN

    Portogruaro +400 LOSS
    Portogruaro/Cittadella Draw +210 WIN
    Last edited by bostonbruins; 01-15-11 at 10:28 AM.

  10. #10
    bostonbruins
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    Record 3-9 -0.93u

  11. #11
    bostonbruins
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    Bologna +1284
    Bologna/Inter Draw +462

    Fiorentina +509
    Fiorentina/Napoli Draw +273

  12. #12
    bostonbruins
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Bologna +1284
    Bologna/Inter Draw +462

    Fiorentina +509 LOSS
    Fiorentina/Napoli Draw +273 WIN

    Record 4-10 -.07u

  13. #13
    bostonbruins
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    Record 4-12 -1.07u


    Reggina +212
    Reggina/Crotone Draw +202

  14. #14
    The Special One
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    hey BB, you should have tried this on Lecce vs Milan - easy $$$$ money on DRAW...

  15. #15
    bostonbruins
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    I will miss some , these games usually start before I wake up

  16. #16
    The Special One
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    I will miss some , these games usually start before I wake up
    when do you wake up? the game was at 2:45pm...

  17. #17
    bostonbruins
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    There are some rough nights man , but I actually missed that one due to NFL

  18. #18
    The Special One
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    true, I was just joking...

  19. #19
    bostonbruins
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Record 4-12 -1.07u


    Reggina +212 LOSS
    Reggina/Crotone Draw +202 WIN



    Record: 5-13 -.56u

  20. #20
    bostonbruins
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    Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


    Record: 5-13 -.56u


    Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u


  21. #21
    The Special One
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


    Record: 5-13 -.56u


    Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u

    hey BB, I wouldnt do that, because DOGS will begin to win and you will regret...

  22. #22
    amonsot
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


    Record: 5-13 -.56u


    Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u
    just so i follow. you are now betting small on favourites to draw a game? how are you picking the games?

  23. #23
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 5-14 -1.06u


    Brescia/Palermo Draw +374
    Cagliari/Roma Draw +289


    Sunday

    Lecce/Fiorentina Draw +333
    Cesena/AC Milan Draw +606

  24. #24
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 6-17 -0.89u



    Novara/Triestina Draw +207

  25. #25
    rfr3sh
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    boston

    check out www.soccerstats.com they have kept track of the winning %'s this season for each league you can see it on the home page

  26. #26
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 7-17 +0.14u


    thanks for the site, looks good

  27. #27
    JOHON8
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    I'm surprised you never took Udinese to win vs Inter, they were the underdogs of the season in that game. What is it like 13 goals in 4 games they have? Def a team that's actually challenging for the title.

  28. #28
    bostonbruins
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    Gambling is taking a backseat to other things right now, missing alot


    Record: 7-17 +0.14u


    Padova/Livorno Draw +231

  29. #29
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 8-17 +1.3u

  30. #30
    bostonbruins
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    Atalanta/Frosinone Draw +249

  31. #31
    ararat2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Atalanta/Frosinone Draw +249
    Like it - lets cash! BOL )))

  32. #32
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 8-18 +0.8u

  33. #33
    Optional
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    Your record should really read 8-6, taken on a match by match basis.

    Agree with those that say you should stick with the .5 unit on win and draw idea too. Or just take the spread on the dog.
    250pts

    SBR POKER TOURNEY4th Place 9/26/2014

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  34. #34
    psv777ua
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  35. #35
    bostonbruins
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    Spread on the dog would probably yield a higher win percentage but I think the prices would put me in the red before too long. I stuck with the draws because they seem more likely than a dog winning outright.

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