1. #1
    bostonbruins
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    The Italian Job

    I have a hard time believing that favorites win more often than draw or lose in Italy Serie A or B, so I'm starting this thread to track just that.

    0.5 unit plays on the dog and draw when the lines are at least +200 for each. I'm no math expert but it looks like a favorite winning costs me 1 unit , any other results breaks even or better.


    This looks to be about the halfway point in the season so I think it's a good time to start, this is for research purposes only but it's something I need to do because soccer has been driving me crazy lately.


  2. #2
    bostonbruins
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    Good day to start huge favorite and it's the only game of the day

    Grosseto (+812) 0.5u
    Grosseto/Atalanta Draw (+330) 0.5u

  3. #3
    The Special One
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    you have a great point here... I find that HOME advantage is quite overrated in the Italian leagues and that the odds are inflated because of that... it is more profitable to pick a side in a game based on form and ability rather than simply being at home...

    I will follow this forum and hope that you discover a profitable trend

  4. #4
    bostonbruins
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    I understand the win percentage will be very low but I'm only interested in the end result


    Record: 0-2 -1u



    Pescara (+715) 0.5u
    Pescara/Siena Draw (+309) 0.5u

  5. #5
    hustla
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    If you can tolerate the high variance, you will make some profit with this stuff, good luck
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  6. #6
    bozeman
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    man it would be easier just to spend half a day going through some website from the history of those leagues and not waste time on a 55-60 percent system

  7. #7
    bostonbruins
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    I'm not interested in history, I'm looking at the 2nd half of this season, and if these bets hit 55-60 % I wouldn't exactly say it's waste of time since the average line will be over +200.

  8. #8
    The Special One
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    Keep going BB. Follow your first instinct...

  9. #9
    bostonbruins
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    Got lines from Bodog because I slept late , might have missed out on a few games

    Record 0-4 -2u



    Triestina +300 LOSS
    Triestina/Albinoleffe Draw +215 WIN

    Frosinone +380 LOSS
    Frosinone/Empoli Draw +225 LOSS

    Padova +350 LOSS
    Padova/Novara Draw +240 WIN

    Portogruaro +400 LOSS
    Portogruaro/Cittadella Draw +210 WIN
    Last edited by bostonbruins; 01-15-11 at 10:28 AM.

  10. #10
    bostonbruins
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    Record 3-9 -0.93u

  11. #11
    bostonbruins
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    Bologna +1284
    Bologna/Inter Draw +462

    Fiorentina +509
    Fiorentina/Napoli Draw +273

  12. #12
    bostonbruins
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Bologna +1284
    Bologna/Inter Draw +462

    Fiorentina +509 LOSS
    Fiorentina/Napoli Draw +273 WIN

    Record 4-10 -.07u

  13. #13
    bostonbruins
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    Record 4-12 -1.07u


    Reggina +212
    Reggina/Crotone Draw +202

  14. #14
    The Special One
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    hey BB, you should have tried this on Lecce vs Milan - easy $$$$ money on DRAW...

  15. #15
    bostonbruins
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    I will miss some , these games usually start before I wake up

  16. #16
    The Special One
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    I will miss some , these games usually start before I wake up
    when do you wake up? the game was at 2:45pm...

  17. #17
    bostonbruins
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    There are some rough nights man , but I actually missed that one due to NFL

  18. #18
    The Special One
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    true, I was just joking...

  19. #19
    bostonbruins
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Record 4-12 -1.07u


    Reggina +212 LOSS
    Reggina/Crotone Draw +202 WIN



    Record: 5-13 -.56u

  20. #20
    bostonbruins
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    Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


    Record: 5-13 -.56u


    Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u


  21. #21
    The Special One
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


    Record: 5-13 -.56u


    Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u

    hey BB, I wouldnt do that, because DOGS will begin to win and you will regret...

  22. #22
    amonsot
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


    Record: 5-13 -.56u


    Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u
    just so i follow. you are now betting small on favourites to draw a game? how are you picking the games?

  23. #23
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 5-14 -1.06u


    Brescia/Palermo Draw +374
    Cagliari/Roma Draw +289


    Sunday

    Lecce/Fiorentina Draw +333
    Cesena/AC Milan Draw +606

  24. #24
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 6-17 -0.89u



    Novara/Triestina Draw +207

  25. #25
    rfr3sh
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    boston

    check out www.soccerstats.com they have kept track of the winning %'s this season for each league you can see it on the home page

  26. #26
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 7-17 +0.14u


    thanks for the site, looks good

  27. #27
    JOHON8
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    I'm surprised you never took Udinese to win vs Inter, they were the underdogs of the season in that game. What is it like 13 goals in 4 games they have? Def a team that's actually challenging for the title.

  28. #28
    bostonbruins
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    Gambling is taking a backseat to other things right now, missing alot


    Record: 7-17 +0.14u


    Padova/Livorno Draw +231

  29. #29
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 8-17 +1.3u

  30. #30
    bostonbruins
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    Atalanta/Frosinone Draw +249

  31. #31
    ararat2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Atalanta/Frosinone Draw +249
    Like it - lets cash! BOL )))

  32. #32
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 8-18 +0.8u

  33. #33
    Optional
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    Your record should really read 8-6, taken on a match by match basis.

    Agree with those that say you should stick with the .5 unit on win and draw idea too. Or just take the spread on the dog.

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  34. #34
    psv777ua
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  35. #35
    bostonbruins
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    Spread on the dog would probably yield a higher win percentage but I think the prices would put me in the red before too long. I stuck with the draws because they seem more likely than a dog winning outright.

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