1. 01-15-15 10:32 PM #1
    kosti
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    Plus Money Parlays

    Hey guys. Have spent a fair bit of time in the past few months trying to create a profitable strategy for soccer after too many mediocre years with little to show for it. I reassessed the way I look at teams, matchups, and situations and I finally feel there may be something worth sharing. I've been paper betting since September and have started real betting since Jan 1st with similar results.

    The bets will almost exclusively be Parlays that return + money, as well as straight bet half-time draws. Other stuff may be sprinkled in however the majority will be these two formats. The odds I post are the odds that I got when wagered...usually afternoon/evening of the day before.

    I truly hope the picks don't get the "posting curse", but only time will tell!

    And please remember this is in its infancy, so if you do decide to follow (or fade), do so with caution.

    Bet #1: Club Brugge -250, Ajax -333, Austria Vienna -1000 = +100
    Bet #2: KR Reykjavik -188, Paris FC -163 = +148
    Bet #3: Russia U21 -400, Japan -275, Preston 1X -550 = +101
    Bet #4: MVV O2.5 -200, Fram O2.5 -182 = +133
    Bet #5: Infonet O2.5 -333, Colomiers U2.5 -163 = +110
    Bet #6: Lucon U2.5 -188, Brest U2.5 -188 = +135

    Over/unders have done worse than straight bets however I'm still trying them out.

    Not too thrilled with the format I present the picks but if I decide to continue than I can find an easier to read way to show them.

    Good luck everyone with your plays tomorrow.
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  2. 01-16-15 05:22 PM #2
    kosti
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    Jan 16/15 Results

    Bet #1: -1
    Bet #2: +1.48
    Bet #3: +1.01
    Bet #4: -1
    Bet #5: -1
    Bet #6: +.54

    Total: +0.03 units

    Not an exciting day by any means. Will post tomorrow's plays later tonight or tomorrow morning. Should have mentioned this in original post, but all wagers (since they're +money) are of 1 unit unless otherwise noted.

    Hope everyone was profitable today.
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  3. 01-17-15 12:02 AM #3
    kosti
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    Jan 17/15 - Plays

    Bet #1: Valencia -300, Maccabi Tel Aviv -600, Maidstone -300 = +107
    Bet #2: Portadown -250, AZ -350, De Graafscap O1.5 -700 = +106
    Bet #3: Shrewsbury -250, Tottenham -163 = +126
    Bet #4: Binh Duong -300, Cliftonille -275, Barrow -275 = +148
    Bet #5: Linfield -188, Chelsea -182 = +138
    Bet #6: Fylde O2.5 -180, Lowestoft O2.5 -167 = +149
    Bet #7: San Marino Calcio U2.5 -160, Lucena U2.5 -180 = +153
    Bet #8: L'Aquila HTX = +105
    Bet #9: Victoria (Honduras) HTX = +110
    Bet #10: Port Vale HTX = +125
    Bet #11: Burnley HTX = +100
    Bet #12: Derby -150, PEC Zwolle -225 = +141

    Lots of plays today, not crazy about playing so many however haven't found a good filter at this point to lower the number of plays without lowering the overall success rate.

    A couple clarifications: for totals and half-time draws I am only writing the home teams name down as to shorten the post. I realize the "teamname O2.5" may seem like a team total play, but it is a total match play. HTX means Half-Time Draw. HT 0-0 means Half-Time exact score 0-0.

    Again, please be cautious if playing any of these. Not sure why but Saturday's are by far the worse days over the last 6 months of tracking. Still trying to figure out why, possibly too many games to look through or too many plays that fit.

    Good luck everyone with your plays tomorrow.
    Last edited by kosti; 01-17-15 at 12:27 AM. Reason: Added Bet #12
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  4. 01-17-15 12:16 AM #4
    smithah2
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    how the hell do you decide who gets bunched with who. anyways will be watching.
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  5. 01-17-15 12:40 AM #5
    kosti
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    Great question, the pairings is something I've been looking at lately as I like to shy away from complete randomness. To be honest at this point it is a mixture of keeping bet types the same, confidence in matches, and gut feeling. O/U are shaky so I keep them away from the straight bets.
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  6. 01-17-15 05:53 PM #6
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by kosti View Post
    Jan 17/15 - Results

    Bet #1: +1.07
    Bet #2: -1
    Bet #3: +1.26
    Bet #4: -1
    Bet #5: +0.55
    Bet #6: +1.49
    Bet #7: -1
    Bet #8: -1
    Bet #9: -1
    Bet #10: +1.25
    Bet #11: -1
    Bet #12: -1

    Total = -1.38 units
    Pretty brutal today...Northern Ireland games, both up late, lost us 2 parlays which would've turned the day around.....but isn't that always the story? haha

    Tomorrow's plays will be up in a few hours.
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  7. 01-17-15 10:07 PM #7
    kosti
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    Jan 18/15 Plays

    Bet #1: Atl. Madrid -550, Juventus -550, Olympiakos -550, PAOK -475 = +100
    Bet #2: Marseille -225, Salernitana -250 = +102
    Bet #3: TNS -600, Anderlecht -450, Sporting (Por) -250 = +100
    Bet #4: Huesca -200, Colo Colo -225 = +117
    Bet #5: Yokohama HK O2.5 -250, Willem II O2.5 -175 = +120
    Bet #6: Heracles O2.5 -200, Tucanes U2.5 -150 = +150
    Bet #7: Zambia U2.5 -200, CS Uruguay U2.5 -108 = +189
    Bet #8: Real Potosi HTX = +125
    Bet #9: Kroussonas HTX = +100
    Bet #10: T. Rafinas HTX = +110
    Bet #11: Glyfadas HTX = +130
    Bet #12: E. Piraeus HTX = +100
    Bet #13: Leixos HTX = +110

    Usually I don't put more than 3 teams together (only second time since Jan 1) but odds were just too low. Again a whole whack of plays that fit, we'll see what happens tomorrow.

    Good luck everyone.
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  8. 01-18-15 04:49 PM #8
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by kosti View Post
    Jan 18/15 Results

    Bet #1: +1
    Bet #2: +1.02
    Bet #3: +.71
    Bet #4: -1
    Bet #5: -1
    Bet #6: +1.5
    Bet #7: +1.89
    Bet #8: +1.25
    Bet #9: +1
    Bet #10: -1
    Bet #11: +1.3
    Bet #12: -1
    Bet #13: +1.1

    Total = +6.77 unit
    Much better results today. Tomorrow's plays will be up in a few hours.
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  9. 01-18-15 05:06 PM #9
    kosti
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    Putting up one play right now as Colombian match starts before I'll get all plays out.

    Jan 19/15 Plays

    Bet #1: Cortulua U2.5 -167, Reggina U2.5 - 188 = +145
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  10. 01-18-15 07:45 PM #10
    kosti
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    Jan 19/15 Plays

    Bet #1: Cortulua U2.5 -167, Reggina U2.5 -188 = +145
    Bet #2: E. Braunsweig O2.5 -130, AEK Larnaca -333 = +130
    Bet #3: Nancy 1X -500, Everton 1X -455, Qatar 1X -294 = -103
    Last edited by kosti; 01-18-15 at 11:28 PM. Reason: Changed Bet #3 to Qatar 1X instead of U2.5
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  11. 01-18-15 11:27 PM #11
    kosti
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    Sorry about this, but making a change to bet #3. Didn't realize Bahrain/Qatar match is totally meaningless and playing the under for that juice is not the right play. Game could be wide open. Going to switch it to Qatar 1X -294.
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  12. 01-19-15 01:59 PM #12
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by kosti View Post
    Jan 19/15 Results

    Bet #1: -1
    Bet #2: +1.3
    Bet #3: -1

    Total: -0.7

    Tomorrow's plays up in a few hours
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  13. 01-20-15 06:57 AM #13
    kosti
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    Late start today. Only posting one parlay right now as game starts, rest (if any) will be up in a couple hours.

    Jan 20/15 Plays

    Bet #1: Sturm Graz -225, Roma -250 = +102
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  14. 01-20-15 08:28 AM #14
    kosti
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    Bet #2: Maribor -400, Club Brugge -225, TNS -700 = +106
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  15. 01-20-15 11:07 AM #15
    kosti
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    No more plays today, sorry for the late start, missed some nice friendlies.
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  16. 01-20-15 05:04 PM #16
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by kosti View Post
    Jan 20/15 Results

    Bet #1: -1
    Bet #2: +0.81

    Total: -0.19 units
    Tomorrow's plays up in the morning, busy night
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  17. 01-20-15 11:01 PM #17
    kosti
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    Jan 21/15 Plays

    Bet #1: Tottenham -300, Villareal -300, Celtic -700 = +103
    Bet #2: Wong Tai Sin O2.5 -250, Barcelona O2.5 = +152

    Lots of cup matches tomorrow which I try to stay away from with this betting format. Only 2 plays tomorrow even though many more would have fit if not cups.
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  18. 01-21-15 08:16 PM #18
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by kosti View Post
    Jan 21/15 Results

    Bet #1: +1.03
    Bet #2: -1

    Total: +0.03
    Bad call on Barca over. Need a good day soon. Tomorrows plays up in a bit, not much that excites for tomorrow's games but I'll post if anything comes up
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  19. 01-21-15 11:27 PM #19
    kosti
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    Jan 22/15 Plays

    Bet #1: South Korea (To Qualify) -275, KR -250, Argentina U20 -2000 = +100

    Only the one play for tomorrow. If something else comes up I will likely post before 10am EST

    Hate adding a ridiculous -2000 however the goal is + money parlays and it bumps it to +100.
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  20. 01-22-15 05:52 PM #20
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by kosti View Post
    Jan 22/15 Results

    Bet #1: +1
    Really wanted to play South Korea at -110 but something about the line scared me, glad we went 'to qualify'.

    Tomorrows Plays up later
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  21. 01-22-15 06:43 PM #21
    kosti
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    Jan 23/15 Plays

    Bet #1: Japan -275, Iran 1X -600, Twente -275 = +117
    Bet #2: Dijon -163, Eupen -400 = +102
    Bet #3: Jagiellonia -200, Man Utd -500, Eindhoven -225 = +160
    Bet #4: Oss O2.5 -210, Glenavon O2.5 -190 = +125
    Bet #5: Colmar HTX = +105
    Bet #6: MAS Fes HT 0-0 = +138

    If there's anything else it'll be up by 9am EST
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