1. 03-15-17 11:00 AM #1
    RobbieStacks
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    Cincinnati-KState thoughts?

    Another very difficult game to pick. We penciled in Cincy easily because the potential opponents were KS/Wake, but now we have a line to work with (3.5).

    Both are about equal in terms of covering the spread. I tend to like to needle down ATS teams when they're favored in big-time games (e.g. Miami -2, but 11-19 ATS, even though my gut told me MSU and never look back since Selection Sunday), but this is a case where both teams identical ATS.

    Talent-wise Cincinnati is considered Cronin's best team as it plays amazing defense and can shoot, but I consider Cincy extremely overrated.

    Kansas State, on the other hand, is a pretty sucky team in spite of some noteworthy upsets this season.


    What do you say here? I think this one comes down to a buzzer beater sadly and will ruin some perfect brackets. Gut says Cincy barely pulls it out
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  2. 03-15-17 11:01 AM #2
    Snowball
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    Cincy should cover. Their full spread will be too much for K-State.
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  3. 03-15-17 11:03 AM #3
    RobbieStacks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Cincy should cover. Their full spread will be too much for K-State.

    Yeah now I'm starting to think Cincy might just cover. Kansas State is 10-2 ATS as an underdog, which, IMO, is way too good for such a mediocre team. I know KState does some things well, but I feel as long as Cincinnati doesn't play like complete morons, they have a solid 70% chance of winning this game assuming they play their normal game.
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  4. 03-15-17 11:04 AM #4
    MMANick
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    I'm going Cincy. Better offense, better defense, I sense a 8+ point win for Cincy.
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  5. 03-15-17 11:21 AM #5
    t-wizzle
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    K State can win. They've got some mojo right now. Playing well. Cincy should have a chip on their shoulders though. Lot of people saying their frauds.
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  6. 03-15-17 11:45 AM #6
    thecutter
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    Kansas state outright winner
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  7. 03-15-17 11:46 AM #7
    RobbieStacks
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    Lot of people saying their frauds.
    Well they kinda are, it's just a question of whether KState is good enough to beat the frauds.
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  8. 03-15-17 11:46 AM #8
    RobbieStacks
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    Quote Originally Posted by thecutter View Post
    Kansas state outright winner
    That's what I fear. Between this game, Miami-MSU, and Xavier-Maryland, I have a serious headache.
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  9. 03-15-17 12:36 PM #9
    unde0087
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    K State can win. They've got some mojo right now. Playing well. Cincy should have a chip on their shoulders though. Lot of people saying their frauds.
    Lets face it, K State shot off their asses in the play in game. The chances they repeat that against Cincy is about zero percent. Having said that people are saying that this is Cronin's best shooting team but they only seem to shoot that good against the podunk teams they play. Any team they have faced lately that plays defense Cincy has struggled to score 50 points and have gone on stretches where they make 1 basket in 8 minutes. This team is the same team they always are. This game could be the first one to 50 points. To me this game isn't much of a worry as whoever wins will get destroyed by UCLA anyways.
    Points Awarded:

    Ralphie Halves gave unde0087 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  10. 03-15-17 12:53 PM #10
    RobbieStacks
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    I mean games like this one, Michigan State-Miami, and Creighton-Rhody aren't huge worries because we're fairly confident in Kansas, UCLA, and a depleted Oregon making the Sweet Sixteen, but obviously getting something like this wrong ruins any hope of the mythical perfect bracket.

    Hopefully Cincinnati wins comfortably, but I see it going down to the wire. Still, I'll invest my faith in the 70% BPI chance and decent enough odds on Cincy.

    A lot less worried about this one than I am about Miami and URI's games.
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  11. 03-15-17 12:56 PM #11
    thecutter
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    Look at it this way. Kansas state plays tough. They scored 90 against a bad defense . That means they play to their competition . Played low scores against Kansas , WV . Given open looks they can knock down shots. Cincinnati coming off a deflating loss in those finals to SMU . A week off . I think they're coming out flat . I'll take the team who had a warmup last night from a stronger conference . Normally one of these 11 seeds advance to round of 32
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  12. 03-15-17 01:00 PM #12
    RobbieStacks
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    11 seeds advance, but Xavier and/or URI are far more likely. Kansas State is probably the worst 11 seed next to Providence. I'm gonna be mad if Cincinnati comes out flat and just gets demolished
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  13. 03-15-17 01:03 PM #13
    thecutter
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    also to touch on your other games . give me Michigan state . Miami made a decent run last year but they're no where near the team of years past. Michigan state as well as Michigan and you could argue Florida and Notre dame were better the second half of the season . I believe all of these teams will make it out of the first round. Xavier and Maryland is a little bit tougher . Xmen might have the best athlete on the floor in bluett but I'm assuming Maryland gets it done like they have against average-above avg competition as they have most of the year
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  14. 03-15-17 01:05 PM #14
    thecutter
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    Quote Originally Posted by RobbieStacks View Post
    11 seeds advance, but Xavier and/or URI are far more likely. Kansas State is probably the worst 11 seed next to Providence. I'm gonna be mad if Cincinnati comes out flat and just gets demolished
    I can't agree . Next to? Or they are? I think k state is flying under the radar here . Could be potential sweet 16 because of the guard play and the defense
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  15. 03-15-17 04:28 PM #15
    Walulu
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    The mythical perfect bracket is just that - mythical. Go with your gut. I like Cutter's thought with the warm up game though. One of these play in teams will make the weekend. Who will it be?
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  16. 03-17-17 04:51 PM #16
    gummo
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    The SMU loss pretty much tells you what to expect. K-State +166
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  17. 03-17-17 04:54 PM #17
    Dirty Sanchez
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    Everyone knows these games are rigged...just ask Michigan backers
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  18. 03-17-17 04:56 PM #18
    RobbieStacks
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    Quote Originally Posted by gummo View Post
    The SMU loss pretty much tells you what to expect. K-State +166
    I don't like it. I'd go Cincy here, but I'm not touching it with my $$. This game's just like Xavier vs. Maryland in terms of the quality of the teams, so maybe it plays out the exact same way or maybe the crappy team loses this time. I think Cincy wins and covers, but I'm not even thinking about touching it.
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  19. 03-17-17 05:13 PM #19
    MaddyMax
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    March madness has been profitable for me last 5 years (thats every year since i started betting) but this year so far its very bad. I think it will turn around so i am going with my original pick of kansas st moneyline.
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  20. 03-17-17 05:17 PM #20
    KRIT
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    Teams are similar in style imo. I think Cinci is the better team, but taking the points with the team that has momentum would be my choice.
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  21. 03-17-17 05:19 PM #21
    LineShifterz
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    Kstate is the play.... they almost beat kansas and are really gelling right..... cinncy a bunch of posers
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  22. 03-17-17 05:39 PM #22
    RobbieStacks
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    I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Cincy -3 hits.


    Cincy by 8
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  23. 03-17-17 05:42 PM #23
    Snowball
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    Quote Originally Posted by LineShifterz View Post
    cinncy a bunch of posers
    bring it on
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  24. 03-17-17 05:50 PM #24
    SEKTAUR
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    The only thing we need to know is jjgold has kstate on his spreadsheet...
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  25. 03-17-17 05:57 PM #25
    ZINISTER
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    Not a homer, but I favor Cincy and Dayton! Hit em both and I'm in for a nice start to the weekend.
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  26. 03-17-17 06:50 PM #26
    krk1030
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    Cinci ripping them to shreds early on
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  27. 03-17-17 07:12 PM #27
    ZINISTER
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    Dayton looking good early. Kent might be the Tri-fecta for Ohio teams today.
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  28. 03-17-17 07:13 PM #28
    RobbieStacks
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    Quote Originally Posted by thecutter View Post
    I can't agree . Next to? Or they are? I think k state is flying under the radar here . Could be potential sweet 16 because of the guard play and the defense
    Told you.
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  29. 03-17-17 07:15 PM #29
    krk1030
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    k state best player 3 fouls, this could get ugly.

    cinci will only lose if they beat themselves with bad shot selection.
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  30. 03-17-17 07:37 PM #30
    gummo
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    K State bettors buried. On to the 9 PM games.
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  31. 03-17-17 07:46 PM #31
    forzapizza
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    Don't count your chicks before they hatch. I have 500 ml on Cinci@ -153. Anything can happen in March.
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  32. 03-17-17 07:46 PM #32
    miltonschwartz
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    I'm on Kstate ML so this one is probably cooked
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  33. 03-17-17 07:59 PM #33
    krk1030
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    missed dunk would have been up 13....down to 6 in the blink of an eye


    cant make this shit up
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  34. 03-17-17 08:44 PM #34
    Time is Money
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    Books cleaned up, ton of late money in on k state after the smu collapse, Cincy dominated the entire game.
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  35. 03-17-17 08:47 PM #35
    dwatersalec
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    Quote Originally Posted by Time is Money View Post
    Books cleaned up, ton of late money in on k state after the smu collapse, Cincy dominated the entire game.
    People tend to overstate conference performance in the tournament when capping games when how the teams match up is more important.
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