I probably just stupidly, but as a little fun experiment, laid money on Under 56 -210 and Over 46 -210 on tonight's game. If I put down $100 on each, the most I'm losing is about $50, while potentially making $100 if it does end up middling. And I feel like there's more than a 50% chance of that, probably 55-60%.
I think NFL is by far the sport that Vegas is sharpest at - it's bet the most, there's many many stats, and they just seem to NAIL the over/under and spread the majority of the time. If they set the total at 51.5 like tonight, I feel like 75% the time that total will not be more than a touchdown off. I'm sure like all betting systems/schemes, this is a long-term losing idea. But if a total is set at 51.5 for NFL, I bet it winds up right around there moreso than most sports.
Stupid idea? Probably, but whatever. Small risk, medium reward.