Science Says American Pharoah Won’t Win the Triple Crown
CALIFORNIA CHROME HAD it all. The three-year-old thoroughbred won the Kentucky Derby last year. Two weeks later, he topped the field at the Preakness, becoming the only horse bred in the Golden State to ever win both races. Then, on June 7, 2014, he was about to run the Belmont Stakes, the final race in the so-called Triple Crown. The last horse to win all three of these races was Affirmed in 1978, but maybe Chrome had a chance to bring the title into the 21st century: The colt had a prime starting position, second in the gate. The odds were on his side, at 3-5. His legion of fans, the #Chromies, mustered on Twitter.
But Chrome fell short. Tying for fourth, he became the 13th horse to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown only to fail in the third in almost 40 years. The winner at Belmont, Tonalist, hadn’t raced in the Derby or the Preakness, and in a post-race interview, Chrome’s co-owner Steve Coburn argued that the Triple Crown should be a closed circuit: No parachuting in to run the Belmont if you haven’t already run the previous races in the series. “It’s not fair to the horses that have been in the game since day one,” Coburn said. “It’s all or nothing. This is the coward’s way out.”
Coburn has a point. Post-race recovery is no joke for a thousand-pound animal that can run more than 40 miles per hour. There are two weeks between the Derby and the Preakness, and three weeks between the Preakness and the Belmont. That tight schedule—and the super-specific needs of racehorses—means horses competing in the grueling back-to-back-to-back Triple Crown races have a big disadvantage against fresh horses.
If a horse eats well and stays hydrated, their glycogen and electrolyte levels should return to normal between each leg of the Triple Crown, but they might be able to recover faster and be in better form for training between races with improved electrolyte supplements. Unfortunately for American Pharoah and the other contenders, Pagan’s study just came out, so this development likely won’t impact the horses competing in the Belmont this year.
Healthy Muscles
In addition to being the last race of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes is also the longest. Some Derby contenders have never raced a mile and a quarter before, never mind the mile and a half they need to run for the Belmont Stakes. Most thoroughbreds also typically get three weeks to a month between tough races, while the Triple Crown allows for just a few weeks between each race. Click to Open Overlay Gallery WIREDThat’s no easy feat, even for a racehorse. When a horse runs a tough race (or has a new workout at a longer distance), its muscles break down. Then, during rest, they reknit and adapt. Your muscles do the same thing. “It’s a part of exercising at the top of their game,” Thunes says. “You have to give them time before ramping them up again over a new distance.” The trio of strenuous races combined with minimal downtime pushes horses to their limits. For many horses, the time between the Derby and Preakness might not be enough time to heal completely, leaving them with even more muscular damage to deal with before the Belmont.
But trainers who skip one or two of the earlier Triple Crown races can set their horses’ rest and workout schedule so they peak at a muscular (and mental) level for the Belmont. American Pharoah, for example, had to take it easy the week after the Preakness. His Belmont prep was a slow build-up from there, concluding with a fast mile and a half gallop on May 30 and a final workout at an easier pace and shorter distance on June 1. A horse that has skipped the Preakness, however, has the luxury of time. Mubtaahij, for example, who finished eighth in the Derby, had plenty of rest so he could be pushed for hard workouts two weeks prior to the Belmont. Now, his trainer hopes to keep his colt fresh by taking the week leading up to the race easy. Pharoah’s trainer is a pro, but having the time to relax and physically rebuild during this final week could make all the difference on race day.
Dem bones
At different points in its stride, a galloping horse puts all its weight on a single leg. That limb bears three times more weight than usual when galloping on a straightaway and, thanks to centrifugal force, a load five to 10 times greater on turns. This translates to skeletal microdamage. That damage can manifest as anything from bone strain to microscopic cracks. “The skeleton is dynamic and the body is continually revitalizing the skeleton by removing damage and replacing it with healthy bone tissue,” says Sue Stover, a professor at the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine.
Luckily, the 3-year-olds that run the Triple Crown are young, healthy athletes with bodies that adapt faster than those of older horses, and “remodeling” ultimately makes bones stronger. But another side effect of Lasix, it turns out, is slower healing—they lose bone-building calcium, remember, through all that diuretic-induced pee. Even mild microdamage can manifest as discomfort or soreness, taking the edge off during competition. Bones also become weaker between the time when the body removes the damaged material and when it finishes rebuilding that area. Race a horse during that critical period and you increase the risk of serious injuries mid-race. A fresh horse won’t face any of those problems. Even a horse that ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness will have five weeks to rest, and plenty of time for normal skeletal damage to repair, before the Belmont.
So, American Pharoah, it’d be awesome if you win the Triple Crown, but you probably won’t. It’s not your fault. It’s science and those pesky fresh horses. Frosted, for example, who came in fourth in the Derby and sat out the Preakness (and who happens to be a half-brother to last year’s Triple Crown buster, Tonalist, and is being ridden by the same jockey, too)is most likely to spoil the party. But that shouldn’t stop someone, hypothetically, from placing a hopeful bet.
Coburn has no point. Beating new shooters is one reason it's so hard and so prestigious; without that factor, about thirty horses would have done it and it would be noteworthy but no big deal.
Nothing against Art Sherman...he's a good trainer....but Bob Baffert is at another level...and if AP doesn't get it done today it's going to be one of those horse racing deals because when it comes to 1 1/2 miles you really don't know how the horses are going to react because most horses don't run that distance...you go to the blood lines and breeding. Personally I might guess the Espinosa is going to put AP on the lead and make someone beat him...I wouldn't think he's going to try and chase someone in that sandy crap and distance
I think this just might be a poor field of 3 year olds, he had the lead through 6Fs at 1:13 and 2. That's a leisurely pace to say the least. All of his times were less than stellar. I think your science is sound here, it's just not enough real competition in this year's crop of 3 years olds. It was bound to happen eventually.
I think this just might be a poor field of 3 year olds, he had the lead through 6Fs at 1:13 and 2. That's a leisurely pace to say the least. All of his times were less than stellar. I think your science is sound here, it's just not enough real competition in this year's crop of 3 years olds. It was bound to happen eventually.
Pace makes the race Nash. Always has, always will.
24+ 48+ 113+, race was over half way down the backside.
Ears were up 50 yards out of the gate and still up at the 1/4 pole.
Really nice horse, don't get me wrong. Just did something that very few have done, but many that failed could only look back and have dreamed of fractions, the fence, no pressure, and a clean right eye like that.
Gotta reserve any more comments until I think about it some more.
Pace makes the race Nash. Always has, always will.
24+ 48+ 113+, race was over half way down the backside.
Ears were up 50 yards out of the gate and still up at the 1/4 pole.
Really nice horse, don't get me wrong. Just did something that very few have done, but many that failed could only look back and have dreamed of fractions, the fence, no pressure, and a clean right eye like that.
Gotta reserve any more comments until I think about it some more.
Here's the thing though.
Made a tiny profit with exotics, I never said fade the horse, I didn't fade the horse.
Pace makes the race Nash. Always has, always will.
24+ 48+ 113+, race was over half way down the backside.
Ears were up 50 yards out of the gate and still up at the 1/4 pole.
Really nice horse, don't get me wrong. Just did something that very few have done, but many that failed could only look back and have dreamed of fractions, the fence, no pressure, and a clean right eye like that.
Gotta reserve any more comments until I think about it some more.
He's a very good horse, clearly the best of the year. Was this a weaker field or is he that good? It does take a special horse to come out of the first 2 legs like he did. I'm thinking he just might be that good, but don't think he had to run against an exceptional field of horses. Yet he ran a mile and a half like it was nothing.
I think this just might be a poor field of 3 year olds, he had the lead through 6Fs at 1:13 and 2. That's a leisurely pace to say the least. All of his times were less than stellar. I think your science is sound here, it's just not enough real competition in this year's crop of 3 years olds. It was bound to happen eventually.
All along this year, everyone was saying that this was the best crop of 3yo's that weve had in a while. I tend to believe that still but time will tell. Little doubt in my mind that AP was better than Big Brown, Smarty, Chrome, I'llHaveAnother, in recent years. Bottom line he did it and is already an all=time great being that pulling off the TC is much tougher in modern times as compared to TC winners of the past.
All along this year, everyone was saying that this was the best crop of 3yo's that weve had in a while. I tend to believe that still but time will tell. Little doubt in my mind that AP was better than Big Brown, Smarty, Chrome, I'llHaveAnother, in recent years. Bottom line he did it and is already an all=time great being that pulling off the TC is much tougher in modern times as compared to TC winners of the past.
Maybe its just as simple as this class lacked speed, to let him get those splits is a gift for a front running horse.
Maybe its just as simple as this class lacked speed, to let him get those splits is a gift for a front running horse.
The splits were honest enough for the Belmont...if Materialtiy went after him any harder, he would have faded to last all the more sooner. Frosted was the way to guage that. Any other year heprobably runs a winning race but he could not reel in AP who was good enough. Finishing time quite respectable btw.
Maybe its just as simple as this class lacked speed, to let him get those splits is a gift for a front running horse.
I just saw that American Pharaoh just ran the 2nd fasted Belmont in history at 2:26, second only to Secretariat's 2:24. It's making me think a few horses were moving. He won by 5 1/2 lengths, nothing near 31. I'd really like to see the final speed figures for this race.
I guess we were due for a Triple Crown winner I think it was good for the sport and the horse seem to win really easy surprisingly
He won by 5 but think he was totally spent - he ran his ass off once he could feel the wire coming. At best we see him in time for the Travers, no Haskell for this guy. Now that I think of it I would not blame Baffert if he just trains AP up to the BC CLassic.
I just saw that American Pharaoh just ran the 2nd fasted Belmont in history at 2:26, second only to Secretariat's 2:24. It's making me think a few horses were moving. He won by 5 1/2 lengths, nothing near 31. I'd really like to see the final speed figures for this race.
I'm surprised to see that time as second best.
I just looked a tchart now at DRF.com ... 2:26:65 I would be surprised if that is second fastest. If it is, no discussion necessary as to AP legitimacy. Hell, he won TC, fk the final time
I just saw that American Pharaoh just ran the 2nd fasted Belmont in history at 2:26, second only to Secretariat's 2:24. It's making me think a few horses were moving. He won by 5 1/2 lengths, nothing near 31. I'd really like to see the final speed figures for this race.
The really impressive feat was that he ran the last 1/4 mile in a 1 1/2 race in 24.3 seconds....faster than the final 1/4 by Secretariat in the Belmont (25 seconds flat). If AP ever went out fast, he would post record times. Horse can run for days. Very special horse and I hope to see him run again....but he might be off to the pasture.
I just looked a tchart now at DRF.com ... 2:26:65 I would be surprised if that is second fastest. If it is, no discussion necessary as to AP legitimacy. Hell, he won TC, fk the final time
Second fastest of TC winners....behind Secretariat. I think 6th fastest all time in the Belmont Stakes.
Second fastest of TC winners....behind Secretariat. I think 6th fastest all time in the Belmont Stakes.
Okay thx - nothing specific came to mind but did not think that 2:26.3 w3as the 2nd fastest for BelStk. No matter houw you slice it, just fantastic performance
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Science Says American Pharoah Won’t Win the Triple Crown
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Originally Posted by CWD
