[newguy]

I have a question related to calculating arbitrage values. I don’t want to discuss whether any of the bets are good value or hedging or anything – this is strictly maximizing value of arbitration betting.

I like to arb out series bets especially when playoff series get deep and I think there are going to be large swings in the price. On Monday I bought the TB Lightning to win the series at +200 for 2 units. They were down 1-0 in the series. I bought the series price specifically knowing I would be arbitraging out. What I am trying to figure out is how to calculate the best way to get out of it.

Just want to see if I am thinking about this correctly – using $100 as my first bet size and $50 as a unit for simplicity:

Current bet – Lightning series $100 to win $200

Option A: I can arb out using series price right now and lock in 0.86 units profit (I can bet $157 on Rangers series -110. Rangers win series I win ~$43, Lightning win I win ~$43).

Option B: I can take Rangers tonight at +115 for 1 unit. $50 to win $57.50.

Scenario A under Option B: Rangers win game. I pick up $57.50. As long as the new series price is better than Rangers -250, then I pick up a total of 0.87 units profit (At -250, I would bet $214 on Rangers series to win $85.6. If Rangers win the series I pick up the $57.50 from tonights game minus $14.40 lost on two series bets for a $43.50 profit, math is the same for lightning winning series)

Scenario B under Option B: Rangers lose game. I am now -$50. I now need Rangers to be better than +1.81 on the series to have a better margin than my option A. (At +1.81, I would bet $107 to win $193.67 on Rangers. Regardless who wins I pick up ~$93 on series bets and lose my $50, so +$43)

It is the new series price that is going to be key to whether it makes sense really. Anyone have any way of predicting the new series price if TB is up 2-1 or if NYR is up 2-1?

Am I thinking about this right? Missing anything? How else should I be thinking about this

[Art Vandeleigh]

Don't know if I'm really adding anything to your question, all I can say is that it's only applicable to game 4, right?

If it were game 7, the series price is odds on game 7.
If it were game 6, the series price is the odds of the team down 3-2 to win the last 2 games, easy enough to calculate.
If it were game 5, either one team is down 3-1, and the calculation is just that team to win 3 in a row. If it's 2-2, home ice still holds and series price should be what it is before game 3.

So the only question that really needs to be answered is what the odds are for the team down 2-1 after game 3 to win 3 of last 4 games.

Are you considering betting live in game 3, maybe after the first goal is scored?

[newguy]

My guy doesn't currently offer nhl love betting but let's say he did. The value would only be there if lightning scored first goal. If Rangers score first I would get worse game line so there im gambling more than arbitraging I think right?

[d2bets]

Before someone else says it, I'll make the semantics point that this is not "arbitrage", this is hedging.

As for the hedging, without delving into the specific numbers, I'd just say that you will probably tend to do better in a game-by-game type situation rather than series because the spread tends to be lower and there are probably more options. That said, game-by-game is more complicated trying to figure out if you lose this, then win that, then this and that -- can be complicated if your goal is to ensure a smooth profit.

[Art Vandeleigh]

My guy doesn't currently offer nhl love betting but let's say he did. The value would only be there if lightning scored first goal. If Rangers score first I would get worse game line so there im gambling more than arbitraging I think right?

You're correct, that would be gambling, but no different than the gamble you made before game 2 started.

Your original series bet would only be considered arbitrage if you simultaneously got the series price at +200 at one bookie, and the other team at say -170 somewhere else.

[newguy]

Yea. I understand arbitrage and how it works. From my point of view, I gambled on 1 game and now I can have risk free profit. That's the reason I use arb. I don't care what we call it, just trying to see if others had already thought through similar issues and what else I should think about in the future.

[shaunovery]

It's just hedging

Arbing is betting both sides both the event starts locking in a profit

I.e team a -110
Team b +115

[BrickJames]

Personally I would go with option A. Lock up almost 1 unit.

[jjgold]

You have to make lots and lots of bets to be profitable with that type of strategy

Hedging an arbitrage is all about volume

[LT Profits]

If Rangers Up 2-1, about Rangers -230
If Lightning Up 2-1, about Lightning -215

[BuckyOne]

What was the money line to win the game when you took your series bet? Your technique seems to depend on the series bet having some value even if your team loses that game. Let's add in the price of the favorite for the series - if they win that game 2 and go up 2-0? They are what -600 to win the series? Close it out with 171 to get 29 of your 100 back? Don't we need to factor in the money you would have won if you had just bet the money line?

[newguy]

What was the money line to win the game when you took your series bet? Your technique seems to depend on the series bet having some value even if your team loses that game. Let's add in the price of the favorite for the series - if they win that game 2 and go up 2-0? They are what -600 to win the series? Close it out with 171 to get 29 of your 100 back? Don't we need to factor in the money you would have won if you had just bet the money line?

That's exactly what started me on this path. I was just checking series prices and saw bolts +200 and thought that seems high so hit it. Now looking back I'm trying to get a unit or slightly over of profit when I could have picked up more than that on game 2 side and been done. Only thing with series is that bet was still alive after game 2 regardless of outcome so that option has value obviously.

[LT Profits]

Close enough, Tampa is now -205

[newguy]

Close enough, Tampa is now -205

Which means my guy will likely have them at -200 or -195. He is from NY and always skews the lines a bit due to the amount of action he gets on NY teams in general. Always nice when I am trying to bet against a NY team but sucks when I am trying to be on them. I actually thought I would be able to get Rangers at +200 today.

[LT Profits]

Which means my guy will likely have them at -200 or -195. He is from NY and always skews the lines a bit due to the amount of action he gets on NY teams in general. Always nice when I am trying to bet against a NY team but sucks when I am trying to be on them. I actually thought I would be able to get Rangers at +200 today.

Yeah my Tampa Bay -215 projection was based on Lightning being the same -130ish that they were in Game 3 again in Game 4, but instead that are currently just -119.

[newguy]

I actually think Rangers are the right side tomorrow and am guessing many others do as well so that line doesn't surprise me. Assuming they win game 4 they obviously regain home ice - so if you were going to bet a series price on Rangers now is the time - they go down 3-1 they are basically toast and if it goes 2-2 line will swing big time again. This may be a heavy rangers action for me Friday - side and series bet