[bostonbosser]

I have already figured out some PEARLS of wisdom here boys, pure PEARLS for betting baseball this year and I want to share this wealth of information with all my friends on the internet.

So let's get started here, I'm just reading from my notes jotted down all off-season and pre-season (spring training)....




1) FORGET about the pre-season. Whoever impressed you this pre-season, chalk it up as meaningless. Prime example; Lard Ass Sabathia. The guy finished the pre-season with 17 scoreless innings. First two innings of the regular season: 6 ERs. Just like the NFL, pre-season MLB doesn't mean a damn thing so just forget it.


2) Atlanta has been very good these past 2 years. One of the best home records last year, don't play against Atlanta at Turner. Atlanta was in the top 4 of rpg last season. More overs than unders should come in. I think Atlanta is one of the better teams in baseball again this year.


3) The lovable loser Cubbies will probably be as bad as last year. However, it's worth noting that the Cubs were so fukkin money on the RL last year even though the only won 66 games S/U.


4) Colorado- this is a team that was God-awful on the road last season and I think they will be again this season. 29-52 on the road last year. If you didn't know that, GTFO now. Colorado can score, and they can win big at home. If you must bet Colorado back them only at home.


5) The LVSC projects Miami to win around 66.5 games. Some genius tout over at VI thinks Miami will be the most improved team in baseball and may even contend this season. I side with the LVSC. Stay away from the Marlins.


6) The NYM were road warriors last year, but even with some good starting pitchers they just don't have the firepower again this year to score consistently. Not to mention, this team has a very shaky bullpen. Under for the mets games.

7) St. Louis- What can you say about St. Louis except don't bet against em'. This is a team that was 50-31 at home. They had a league best 4.71 runs per game. I would just stay away from their games in general unless youre betting them on the RL at home.


8) San Diego will be bottom feeding again this year. Like the Rockies they were God awful on the road last season but unlike the Rockies, this team just can't drive in runs. Fade.


9) Washington is battle tested. I think sticking with them in the long run will put you in the black.


10) Philadelphia- This is a team projected to win 78 games and I think that's generous. In my opinion, Phili will be one of the top 5 worst teams in the NL. The Phillies had 73 wins last season. They were dead last in the NL. DEAD LAST. The Mets, Giants, and even the Padres had more wins. Their talent can't stay healthy, their pitching is so bad that even when the Phil's start a line-up of AAA guys you can't even trust an under to come in because the pitching is so bad.


11) Milwaukee has their dirty scumbag cheater back in the line-up but the only thing that could really help this club is Hank. LVSC has Brew Crew at 78.5 wins and I think that's just about right. Not a team I pay juice on under any circumstance and their inability to drive in runs last year would really make me question betting them in any spot.

12) Pittsburgh and Cincinnati- 2 more money teams at home last year, also both 50-31. To me, both teams are question marks and potentially in for a let down year. If you must bet either, bet at home. Pitt is not worth it in my opinion, they're going to score less than 4 rpg and be -150 every home game. I think Cinci will get their share of plus money which has value with pretty good pitching and a pretty good line-up.


Well there you have it boys, the NL in a nutshell.

[dlunc3]

you sir, are a clown

[bostonbosser]

Was that a poor break-down of the NL?

You must either hate gambling, baseball, or you're a big fan of a team I buried. If you're mastered, PLEASE-- Don't hesitate to give some information that pertains to winning.

If you disagree with my breakdown of (most) the National League, please share your thoughts.


We are on the same side, pal.

[Justin3587]

I agree with everything except Philly. I'm not sold either way on them. One of those teams I can't really figure out.

[STAX]

I think Philly is going to contend for the playoffs. I agree with alot of what OP wrote though. Pittsburg won't repeat last year, Atlanta and Washington are both tough. Cincy should have a similar year as last year. I think the biggest thing to evaluate is bullpens. They fluctuate soooo much from year to year. A great bullpen last year, could be terrible this year, even with the same personel. And vise versa as well. Starting pitching is pretty easy to predict, its the bullpens that make baseball hard to handicap.

Disagree about preseason not meaning anything though. As far as wins and losses, yes, it means nothing, but a lot can be said about teams filling holes with preseason positions up for grabs. Starting rotations are finalized and those holes can be evaluated

[GiveMeaBJ]

Agree with some, disagree with some. Always appreciate a post like this though.

[bostonbosser]

I agree with alot of what OP wrote though. Pittsburg won't repeat last year, I think the biggest thing to evaluate is bullpens. They fluctuate soooo much from year to year. A great bullpen last year, could be terrible this year, even with the same personel. And vise versa as well. Starting pitching is pretty easy to predict, its the bullpens that make baseball hard to handicap.

I forgot to mention in my initial post that Pittsburgh had the best WIN record when leading after the 6th inning last season. Pitt 7th-9th is a black fukking hole of defense. Their bullpen was that good last year.

Based on last season, if you fade Pitt it's not a bad idea to play just 1st 5.

[GiveMeaBJ]

I forgot to mention in my initial post that Pittsburgh had the best WIN record when leading after the 6th inning last season. Pitt 7th-9th is a black fukking hole of defense. Their bullpen was that good last year.

Based on last season, if you fade Pitt it's not a bad idea to play just 1st 5.

They are due for decline. Too many guys overachieved.

[OMGChoGath]

I'm from Pittsburgh, and a Pirates fan. I won't be betting on them this year though. They aren't good enough for the lines Vegas is going to give them.

[JonEJet]

Nice post....appreciate the info

[sourtwist]

That.avatar.looks.familiar.

[dlunc3]

Stopped reading when I saw "their pitching is so bad" about a team with Hamels, lee and Burnett leading the way

[jjgold]

Pitt had fluke year , I do not think they are that good. I also think parity creeping into baseball also like other sports which makes it even harder to cape . A lot of good pitchers scattered around both. Leagues . I see lower scoring games and lower lined games being the norm.

[smittyallsports]

This is the goods bro. Appreciate it very much. Great write up. Keep em coming.

[artyfudgepacker]

nice post

[greenhippo]

I like to give my pearls in necklace form

[bostonboss]

guy steals my pic and my name.....trolling piece of shit ..die of aids

[thekoreanmang]

Great post. Keep writing please!

[Hustler11]

I agree with just about everything in your post. I however do think Miami has improved and that will get them out of the bottom of the league. Home team advantage doesn't really matter they don't have many fans. I'm gonna look for them in spots where they're a road dog with a good pitcher on the mound.