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NFL Wildcard Prop: Saints @ Eagles
Saints TE Jimmy Graham Total Receiving Yards Over 80.5 [-115]
This might be the single worst match-up that the Eagles could possibly have. A week after the Cowboys & Jason Witten shredded the coverage for 135 yards - they get the best in the game. Martellus Bennett and Antonio Gates also crushed this defense this year as two of the few other "elite" or tough size match-up tight ends they faced. Witten did struggle in the 1st meeting, but he was targeted by Orton early and often and was open all game long last week.
The Eagles will likely try several things to combat Graham, but if they stick with Kendricks on him - that is a nightmare. Kendricks has some of the worst coverage stats in the league from a story I was reading. Something like 82% of the passes throw to his man have been complete and he's been missing an alarming number of tackles which could add some nice YAC for Graham. If they choose to add a safety over the top, I don't see that being a much better proposition. Wolff has been out with an injury and even if he comes back, he won't be 100%. If Chung is in, he's a massive liability as seen on multiple occasions last week. There's been speculation that the Eagles could try the Patriots game plan that worked of shutting him down with one on one coverage with your best cover guy. The problem there is if they go with Boykin - he gives up a massive amount in height & weight. Cary Williams? As physical as he is, he's been beaten and penalized often this season. I don't see a one-on-one scenario being likely for more than a few tries on Graham - especially using Corners who have enough to worry about with the likes of the Saints other receivers. Graham's production fluctuated during the season due to his injury problems, but he has come back with some stronger games down the stretch. He has been targeted at least nine teams by Brees in nine of 16 games this season and I would think the targets are headed for double digits tonight which should give this a legit shot.
People seem to think the cold weather is going to slow the passing game - this isn't zero degree weather. Temps are likely to hover between 22 & 26 according to the forecast. Cold, sure. Bitter cold? Hardly. The wind is also not expected to be a large factor, so I think the weather angle on the passing game is unnecessary here. It's the Saints strength and the Eagles weakness. Expect New Orleans to attack how they attack. You can find the line as low as 75.5 for a little inflated price of -130. I went with another book than did add five yards, but offers some slight price relief. I honestly think he beats both numbers and could approach or exceed 100 yards if this game is the competitive back & forth type that I think most expect.
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