[a4u2fear]

Has anyone ever done any research on "the red zone" as depicted by the NFL as being at the 20 yd line or closer to the end zone?

Is this really an accurate representation? It is more like the 15 yd line or closer?

The only information I found of length of touchdowns scored was by looking at 1st down field position by advancednflstats. This showed that drives starting at the 20 yd line or closer had a 45-85% TD rate. I feel like this is somewhat skewed by a large play (turnover or kick return) that set up the position; causing the defense to be off key/confused/flustered.

If the advancednflstats were the only information to go on, what would you consider to be "the red zone"?
Here are the stats (1st down drives and TD%):
1 yd line: 85%
5 yd line: 70%
10 yd line: 50%
15 yd line: 50%
20 yd line: 45%

I'm trying to classify the end result of team drives and the red zone depiction will help me determine a certain amount of success or failure. Looking at this information, I'm thinking of using the 15 yd line.

Thanks for any help.

[byronbb]

Has anyone ever done any research on "the red zone" as depicted by the NFL as being at the 20 yd line or closer to the end zone?

Is this really an accurate representation? It is more like the 15 yd line or closer?

Representation of what exactly?? Is 45% score rate low vs 50%??
Effective pts is as follows and the 20yrd is worth more than 3pts which is worth more than 10% for win-rate.

1yd: 4.95pts
5yrd: 3.9pts
10yrd: 3.5pts
15yrd: 3.5pts
20yrds: 3.15pts

[byronbb]

Ill bump the thread because I just ran into an article on the red zone:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/th...-scoring-myth/

[theclutch7]

too much thionkung there!