[tto827]

Stop defending that bet....even if it had hit it's still a bad bet. Each to their own but -190 prop is never ever a good bet.

Avoid the word never...

Broncos punts under 8 vs. Jacksonville at -190 wouldn't have been a good bet?

[Louisvillekid1]

If they are good bets, they should show a profit over a period of time, hence tracking all plays as opposed to posting a play here or there.

I remember you being a decent gambler, a little Louisville ecstatic (Bridgewater Heisman ), but would be interested to see what the new and improved Tpowell plays look like.

I personally think he is always right on , when posting about Louisville.



T Powell, means well and seems like a good person. He is simply to emotionally involved in his wagers to be a long term winner.

See the WKY in game thread, from page 3 on its easily the thread of the year (absolute must read)

But WKY lost, tear up the 1 unit ticket and move on, I mean it's Tuesday night Sun Belt Football

[TPowell]

MONDAY

Fumble +130	-$50.00
#229 - Indianapolis Colts -1 (-110)	-$165.00
#16051 - Philip Rivers/Passing Yards u290½ (-105)	$50.00
#16053 - Philip Rivers/Completions u25½ (-105)	$50.00
#16055 - Philip Rivers/TD Pasess u2½ (-125)	$50.00
#16057 - P Rivers throws an INT ML (-190)	-$95.00
#16065 - Danny Woodhead/Receptions u5½ (-135)	$50.00
#16081 - Vincent Brown/Receiving Yards u57½ (-115)	$50.00
#16106 - A Gates no TD scored ML (-115)	$50.00
#16001 - Andrew Luck/Passing Yards u279½ (-115)	$50.00
#16005 - Andrew Luck/TD Pasess u1½ (+165)	$82.50
#16031 - TY Hilton/Receiving Yards o70½ (-115)	-$57.50
#16041 - Coby Fleener/Receiving Yards u47½ (-115)	$50.00
#16043 - Coby Fleener/Receptions u3½ (+100)	$50.00

[TPowell]

this isn't big money obviously but statistically I've been hitting these props for quite a bit so I'll obviously be upping my unit size for them

[No coincidences]

See the WKY in game thread, from page 3 on its easily the thread of the year (absolute must read)

But WKY lost, tear up the 1 unit ticket and move on, I mean it's Tuesday night Sun Belt Football

I didn't see any of this, but now it's all starting to come together. He's pissed about a losing bet and now he's taking it out on SBR. I've seen this act before. When he does lose, his "my shit doesn't stink and you all are a bunch of peasants" chip goes haywire.

[TPowell]

SUNDAY

#225 - New Orleans Saints +2 (-110)	-$220.00
#206 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-115)	-$230.00
#12001 - Carson Palmer/Passing Yards u235½ (-115)	-$57.50
#12003 - Carson Palmer/TD Passes u1½ (-200)	-$100.00
#12021 - Larry Fitzgerald/Receiving Yards u64½ (-115)	-$57.50
#12041 - Colin Kaepernick/Passing Yards o209½ (-115)	$50.00
#12061 - Anquan Boldin/Receiving Yards o60½ (-115)	-$57.50
#12063 - Anquan Boldin/Receptions o4½ (-145)	-$72.50
#221 - Jacksonville Jaguars/Denver Broncos o52½ (-110)	$150.00
#11503 - Sam Bradford/TD Passes o1½ (+135)	$67.50
#11623 - Antonio Brown/Receptions o5½ (-135)	$50.00
#11653 - Geno Smith/TD Passes u1½ (-115)	$50.00
#11003 - Terrelle Pryor/TD Passes u1½ (-200)	$50.00
#11063 - Dwayne Bowe/Receptions o4½ (-115)	-$57.50
#11621 - Antonio Brown/Receiving Yards o84½ (-115)	$50.00
#11671 - Stephen Hill/Receiving Yards u59½ (-115)	$50.00
#11501 - Sam Bradford/Passing Yards u235½ (-115)	$50.00
#11531 - Austin Pettis/Receiving Yards u50½ (-115)	$50.00

[TPowell]

#11041 - Alex Smith/Passing Yards o249½ (-110)

#11061 - Dwayne Bowe/Receiving Yards u50½ (-115)

#11071 - Donnie Avery/Receiving Yards o54½ (+100)

2 Team - Teaser - Primary #208 - Baltimore Ravens +8½ #225 - New Orleans Saints +8

[TPowell]

I didn't see any of this, but now it's all starting to come together. He's pissed about a losing bet and now he's taking it out on SBR. I've seen this act before. When he does lose, his "my shit doesn't stink and you all are a bunch of peasants" chip goes haywire.

I won both prop bets (posted on SBR) so my night hasn't been that bad, trust me

[t-wizzle]

Powell congrats. You clearly are a +EV gambler.

[TPowell]

Powell congrats. You clearly are a +EV gambler.

I truthfully am, the only hurdle left to clear is not overbetting on sides when I have an ATM with prop bets

[No coincidences]

I won both prop bets (posted on SBR) so my night hasn't been that bad, trust me

I read through the WKU thread -- it was like you were about to go postal.

You seem to treat games awfully black-and-whitish. I'm surprised that, as you get older and gamble more, you are still surprised when the "better" team or the "right" side doesn't cash. It's not like that's a rare occurrence. Happens all the time.

You also seem to be pretty narrow- and close-minded when it comes to other people's ideas or opinions, which makes me wonder why you're asking this question in the first place.

[The Kraken]

Tpowell you want to talk strategy and angles? Go for it braniac, blow me away. Let me know how you filter your inclusion and exclusion criteria for your model, how far are you back testing, whats your acceptable error%, how is your model dynamic? What language are you using? Did you write the program? Im all ears. Tell us about your edge, whats your avg. EV per play, etc...

All Youre doing is bitching. And what you fail to realize is youre bitching about posters just like you. Youre no different than anyone else here from what Ive seen.

[TPowell]

I read through the WKU thread -- it was like you were about to go postal.

You seem to treat games awfully black-and-whitish. I'm surprised that, as you get older and gamble more, you are still surprised when the "better" team or the "right" side doesn't cash. It's not like that's a rare occurrence. Happens all the time.

You also seem to be pretty narrow- and close-minded when it comes to other people's ideas or opinions, which makes me wonder why you're asking this question in the first place.

I am mildly surprised because more often than not, the right side does cash which is what makes losers losers. I was about to go postal because I was being attacked for trying to help other posters potentially win money and I can't stand ignorance like that

[TPowell]

Tpowell you want to talk strategy and angles? Go for it braniac, blow me away. Let me know how you filter your inclusion and exclusion criteria for your model, how far back are you vack testing, whats your acceptable error%, how is your model dynamic? What language are you using? Did you write the program? Im all ears

like those free rides huh? Why not just have me text you all my plays as well

[No coincidences]

I am mildly surprised because more often than not, the right side does cash which is what makes losers losers. I was about to go postal because I was being attacked for trying to help other posters potentially win money and I can't stand ignorance like that

"Right side" according to who, though? That's an awfully subjective term to be so objective about.

And what do you mean in the bolded part? What were you doing to try and help them win money?

[No coincidences]

like those free rides huh? Why not just have me text you all my plays as well

See, this is what I don't get. You used to have season-long threads where you tracked plays, did you not? Now you're against that, even though you claim to be a better capper now and seem very comfortable in looking down on SBR because you're better than this place? Shut everyone up with a sub-forum thread.

[TPowell]

"Right side" according to who, though? That's an awfully subjective term to be so objective about.

And what do you mean in the bolded part? What were you doing to try and help them win money?

At one point I was trying to explain the going for it on 4th down from the 1 in hopes of making them THINK, but it turned into a childish game of make fun of 1 person. Oh well, can't help every idiot. There were some other things as well, but I just remember that one off the top of my head

[tto827]

I am mildly surprised because more often than not, the right side does cash which is what makes losers losers. I was about to go postal because I was being attacked for trying to help other posters potentially win money and I can't stand ignorance like that

Everyone claims to be a plus EV gambler.

Takes one dense dude to bet with the expectation of losing money.

Perfectly acceptable for Kraken to call you out, nothing in that thread (WKU) or this one has been of substance to help people out here. Posting a huge sample size of plays or proving your angles another way to show you are successful. Until then, hold off on the holier than thou stuff please.

[No coincidences]

At one point I was trying to explain the going for it on 4th down from the 1 in hopes of making them THINK, but it turned into a childish game of make fun of 1 person. Oh well, can't help every idiot. There were some other things as well, but I just remember that one off the top of my head

What does that have to do with making people money?

[Sam Odom]

The ONLY Reason... JJ's Love

.

[The Kraken]

I truthfully am, the only hurdle left to clear is not overbetting on sides when I have an ATM with prop bets

[BigDofBA]

Skimmed through this thread.

I don't really take anyone seriously unless they track their plays. With that said, I don't blame anyone for not tracking plays because they'll get ripped the second they lose and people will talk shit win or lose.

I've seen T-Powell wins some plays but I've also seen him start threads saying he was going to start a season long thread and then when shit hits the fan on day two he stops tracking....one NCAA hoops days sticks out in my mind in which it was horrifically bad.

We all have those days though and like I said, I don't blame people for not keeping a running record, it just is ironic when someone talks about how they are plus even and then when they go like 3-11 the second day in their thread they disappear for a month.

[No coincidences]

The ONLY Reason... JJ's Love

.

Now that you officially have it, does that mean you'll go away?

[TPowell]

Everyone claims to be a plus EV gambler.

Takes one dense dude to bet with the expectation of losing money.

Perfectly acceptable for Kraken to call you out, nothing in that thread (WKU) or this one has been of substance to help people out here. Posting a huge sample size of plays or proving your angles another way to show you are successful. Until then, hold off on the holier than thou stuff please.

I'm not hand holding anybody here through how I price prop bets (my bread and butter). I'll certainly think about posting my plays, but of course a huge sample size would take months to accumulate and I have no interest in posting every play on here because I can guarantee I'll forget for days on end

[No coincidences]

Skimmed through this thread.

I don't really take anyone seriously unless they track their plays. With that said, I don't blame anyone for not tracking plays because they'll get ripped the second they lose and people will talk shit win or lose.

I've seen T-Powell wins some plays but I've also seen him start threads saying he was going to start a season long thread and then when shit hits the fan on day two he stops tracking....one NCAA hoops days sticks out in my mind in which it was horrifically bad.

We all have those days though and like I said, I don't blame people for not keeping a running record.

Well said.

To me, though, struggling through a tracked thread is almost like a badge of honor. I actually like struggling early in one of my threads, because I want to prove to myself that I can dig myself out of the hole without chasing (like I did in college football last year). Does it always work? Hell no. It's impossible to win every year in every sport. But I love tracking my plays here because it gives me tangible proof of what I'm doing right/wrong at given points throughout a season. Plus I get valuable feedback from the good posters at SBR.

I could do without the trolls, but I've learned to live with it -- and discovered the value of the "ignore" function.

[The Kraken]

like those free rides huh? Why not just have me text you all my plays as well

Im sorry. I must have misunderstood your original post when you stated that nobody here wanted to talk strategy. So being a kind poster, I gave you the opportunity to be the change you want to see. But you failed to meet your own demands i thought maybe you wanted to talk math and modeling with someone that has forgot more about both than you'll ever learn. I guess you really just want to bitch and moan. Continue on

[TPowell]

for a guy talking about modeling so deeply, I would expect them to know how easy prop betting is. Anybody can do it if they have any sense

[TPowell]

Im sorry. I must have misunderstood your original post when you stated that nobody here wanted to talk strategy. So being a kind poster, I gave you the opportunity to be the change you want to see. But you failed to meet your own demands i thought maybe you wanted to talk math and modeling with someone that has forgot more about both than you'll ever learn. I guess you really just want to bitch and moan. Continue on

after the shit I've heard from you in the past, I have no interest in discussing or helping you with anything

[The Kraken]

I sure hope your capping is better than your comprehension.

[BigDofBA]

Well said.

To me, though, struggling through a tracked thread is almost like a badge of honor. I actually like struggling early in one of my threads, because I want to prove to myself that I can dig myself out of the hole without chasing (like I did in college football last year). Does it always work? Hell no. It's impossible to win every year in every sport. But I love tracking my plays here because it gives me tangible proof of what I'm doing right/wrong at given points throughout a season. Plus I get valuable feedback from the good posters at SBR.

I could do without the trolls, but I've learned to live with it -- and discovered the value of the "ignore" function.

Totally agree.

My whole thing is, if you're sucking your own dick and trying to get respect saying how great of a capper you are, don't start a thread, go 5-6 on day one, 3-11 on day two, and then disappear for over a month.

If I just made less bets but bet more on games I was confident in, I could probably grind out profits but that's not why I do this.

The grind is not worth it to me. I do it for fun and entertainment with the aim at trying to make money but I'm totally fine losing a little bit for the action.

It's really no surprise to me that I hit a lot higher percentage on the teams I follow, series I follow, and that 1 or 2 football games a weekend I have highlighted.

It's the season long day to day bets that kill profits but I don't care because it's the action I'm doing it for.

[The Giant]

I come here simply to read Kraken's posts.

The guy understands the markets and the industry better than just about anyone.

Learn from him, and don't try to go toe-to-toe. You will lose.

[Louisvillekid1]

Season Long threads seem to be very difficult on here as they can easily get very cluttered. I completed a very active/successful one in NCAABB last year with very few trolls or negative posts, however looking at other posters threads, they can be brutal. I just like to share some reasoning on a few plays per week now.

[BigDofBA]

One thing I always chuckle about is when people say they capped a line at this or their model says the line should be this.

I would just like to know how people arrive at their numbers somtimes.

If vegas has a line set at -15.5 and someone says their "model" says -7 or they "capped" the game at -7, I really just wonder if their pulling some arbitrary number out of their ass.

If your "model" is 8 points different than the line set by Vegas, your model is trash regardless if you get lucky or not.

[No coincidences]

I come here simply to read Kraken's posts.

The guy understands the markets and the industry better than just about anyone.

Learn from him, and don't try to go toe-to-toe. You will lose.

Zing!

[No coincidences]

If your "model" is 8 points different than the line set by Vegas, your model is trash regardless if you get lucky or not.

Agree. I'm not saying oddsmakers are infallible, but it always cracks me up to see people who think they're better long-term than the guys who do this for a living. You may be able to find "value" in isolated doses, but you're right: if your "model" is telling you Vegas' numbers are off that much that often, you're the one who needs to do some tweaking -- not them.