KANSAS CITY
2012 record: 2-14
The argument: The Chiefs have the players. Heck, they had six guys named to the Pro Bowl from a team that had just two victories. Only four others sent more all-stars to Hawaii, and this just in: All made it to the playoffs. What the Chiefs didn't have was a good quarterback or good hands. Their quarterbacks produced a dreadful 63.8 passer rating, and their 37 turnovers tied for last in the NFL. So the Chiefs went out and found Alex Smith, who ... surprise, surprise ... excels at minimizing mistakes, with just 10 turnovers in his last 25 starts and had a 19-5-1 record the past two years. Now it's time to start taking them seriously. I know, it's Alex Smith, and critics believe he was little more than a caretaker of a 49ers team driven by defense and Frank Gore ... except he wasn't. Look at the 2011 regular-season defeat of the New York Giants, when Gore didn't play in the second half. Smith won that game. Now look at the playoff defeat of New Orleans, when the 49ers were forced to scramble from behind. Smith won that one, too. Now, he's with a coach with a history of developing young quarterbacks and with a team that just shored up a secondary so thoroughly that cornerback Brandon Flowers believes it could be the best in the league.
Added bonus: The Chiefs play in a division in which only Denver had a winning record, so there's room for upward mobility. Plus, they have the seventh-easiest schedule, with opponents a combined .473 last season, including five last-place finishers.
Potential speed bump: Coach Andy Reid knows how turnovers can sabotage a club. His Philadelphia Eagles committed 75 over their last 32 starts, one reason that Reid has a new job. If the Chiefs can't clean up an act that produced 63 giveaways in 2011-12, it's déjà vu all over again for Reid. Remember: It wasn't the Chiefs' defense that was primarily responsible for last year's carnage; it was an offense that couldn't get out of its own way -- with Kansas City tying the 1981 Baltimore Colts by losing nine games by 14 or more points.