[VegasDave]

Remember if you want these Friday morning instead of late Saturday night, ask me to sign up for my newsletter and I'll email this to you Friday mornings (free of course)!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 - 8 - 0 (.429)
Without the spread: 6 - 8 - 0 (.429)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 - 0 - 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 46 - 40 - 2 (.535)
Without the spread: 50 - 38 - 0 (.568)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 9 - 1 - 0 (.900)

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

I always like to stare at the schedule long enough to find at least 6 underdogs to play, as you know every week there will be some dogs that cover, and I like to try my best to find them. I can't this week. I have a few, but I like almost all of the favorites this week. Hope you like giving up points!

SUNDAY

San Diego (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)
Statistically, this looks like a pretty even match-up, which is indicated by the spread. I have to give the slight edge to Buffalo though; Buffalo's defense is a bit better then San Diego's, especially against the pass. But perhaps more importantly, San Diego is traveling cross country and playing at a time they aren't used to (10AM Pacific Time), while Buffalo is coming fresh off of a bye and should be extra-motivated to pick up the win and shore up on defense after their blowout loss against Arizona. I like Buffalo to pick up the win at home here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

New Orleans (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
Quite simply, when faced with the choice between a high octane offense and a shutdown defense, you should take the defense. Carolina's passing defense is the league's second best, and it should be able to slow down New Orleans a little better then some other teams have. Meanwhile, New Orleans defense should have trouble stopping the Panthers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
Minnesota's running game has gone ice cold; teams are committing to shutting down the run and have succeeded for three straight weeks in keeping Adrian Peterson contained. If New Orleans and Detroit can do it, imagine how well Chicago's 5th-best-in-the-league rushing defense will. And unlike New Orleans and Detroit, I don't think Chicago lets them escape with a win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cincinnati (+9.5)
Very tough to pick a winless Cincinnati team without Carson Palmer at the helm in this spot, but I'm going to do just that. Pittsburgh is using their 3rd string running back due to injuries, and Cincinnati has had success defending against the pass this year. To be honest, I'm not really sure how the Bengals find their way into the endzone with Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, but a winless team playing against a division rival at home getting 9.5 points is just not something I'm willing to bet against.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Tennessee (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0)
The league's best defense playing against the league's second worst offense. Of course, it is only 2nd worst thanks to Larry Johnson, the Chief's main offensive weapon; who was suspended by the team for breaking a team rule. Did I mention the Chiefs had the league's worst rushing defense, too? Please stop me when you see the reason to like the Chiefs here. None? Cool.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
I'm still stunned at the absolute hammering Baltimore took last week. What I do know is that the Ravens are a very proud team on defense, and I think they will play with a big chip on their shoulder this week. If Baltimore can take away the big play against the wildcat formation Miami throws out there, they should be able to keep this game close, and also pick up the win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

San Francisco (+10.5) @ New York Giants (-10.5)
Getting embarrassed on Monday night in Cleveland, New York now returns home to play a struggling San Francisco team. This is a game they need to win to stay atop the division, and they should come out pretty fired up after the egg they laid Monday night. I believe they will make a statement in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Dallas (-7.0) @ St. Louis (+7.0)
Now there is some talk that Romo may play with his broken finger, which I don't actually believe. Whether he does or doesn't shouldn't matter in this one. Johnson does not have Romo's arm, but he will have so many weapons around him that he should have no trouble manufacturing scoring drives. I predicted St. Louis would keep it close last week and maybe win; and they did. But let's not get too crazy; they are still a very bad football team. I hate laying points on a team like Dallas that has played so poorly of late, but they are definitely the pick at only 7 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Detroit (+9.5) @ Houston (-9.5)
Very difficult to take a team with only one win to cover by 9.5 points, but I can see them doing so. With Dan Orlovsky in at QB and Roy Williams being traded, Detroit really doesn't have any firepower at all on offense. Unlike Minnesota last week, Houston should be able to move the ball through the air and put up points. This is Houston's first weak opponent this year, and I think they jump at the opportunity to put up some points and win comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Green Bay (+1.0)
I'm tempted to take Green Bay here because this feels like a trap spread, but Indy convinced me that they are back last week. Baltimore's defense is stout, and they moved the ball at will. If Woodson was 100% and Al Harris was playing, I'd consider the Packers much more strongly, but with a beat up secondary it is hard to believe they will stop the Colts if they are indeed getting on a roll here. Joseph Addai's absence may hurt, but I think the Colts find a way to win here and are too good to pass up on at only -1.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New York Jets (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
Please just ignore this pick. I'm 0 - 5 on picking Raider games despite knowing this team top to bottom, inside and out. You simply can not cap this team. They have so much talent and potential and you never know when it will work and when it won't. I'm going to take the Raiders very begrudgingly because I have a really good feeling they will be fired up in front of the home crowd after a blowout loss and they will run their offense a lot better at home then they did inside the dome. The main reason I like this bet is that the spread just screams trap; Everyone loves Favre and the Jets, everyone hates the Raiders and they are the laughing stock of the league with Al Davis's press conferences. The Raiders rely on the running game and the Jets have an excellent rushing defense. The Raiders' passing defense is awful and the Jets love to throw the ball. I can go on and on; Why is this only 3 points and not 7 to 9 like all of the other big underdogs this week? I think the Jets are way too obvious, and the bookies know something we don't. Oakland finds a way and surprises everyone, including me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

Cleveland (+7.5) @ Washington (-7.5)
Cleveland coming off of a game they had no business winning, Washington coming off a game they had no business losing. This week they meet, and I believe they return things to the way they should be. Washington will not get caught sleeping two weeks in a row.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Seattle (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay (-10.5)
Seattle is decimated with injuries on offense, and more alarmingly, the defense is getting shredded. As usual, Gruden is getting the most out of his team, and they are clicking on all cylinders. They are a great home team, and Seattle does not play well on the road. Yet another favorite I'm forced to take.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

MONDAY

Denver (+3.0) @ New England (-3.0)
Without Brady, this New England team isn't even a shadow of what it should be. Wins against the Chiefs, 49ers, and Jets; losses against the Dolphins and Chargers. Yes, they can still beat lower end teams, but teams like Denver that have firepower and will put points on the board are going to be too tough for the Patriots to keep up with. I don't doubt that it will be awfully tough to head into New England Monday night and leave with a win, but I feel like I am getting the better team PLUS points here. I can't pass on that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

Sorry for all the favorites... hopefully for me it is just a favorite-pounds-dog kind of week.

[InTheHole]

I'm taking the points with Cleveland and I think New England covers and goes UNDER. The MNF OVER comes to an end on Monday. Thanks again for taking the time to research...writeup...and share your perspective.

[jackpot269]

Thanks usc for your great write ups and GL on these plays!!!!!!!!!! GO RAIDERS !!!!!!!!!!!

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

very nice write up i appreacite these every week, altho i disagree with you on the oakland pick, best of luck, i hope you go 15-1

[VegasDave]

Thanks fellas!

Not my best work this week... I was extremely sleep deprived and did not break down every game as well as I should have, I just didn't have the energy. I hope it doesn't come back to haunt me. Best of luck on all of your plays

[The_Kid]

Love the write-ups each week, especially the philosophical picks. Keep up the great work usc!

[DeluxeLiner]

usc, dig the new pic of jlh

[starboots]

I am on board with your buffalo pick

[kieranrox]

Thanks man. Love your work. Like you say, not sure about your oakland pick though.

[VegasDave]

Thanks man. Love your work. Like you say, not sure about your oakland pick though.

Don't blame you, I'm 0 - 5 on picking Oakland games this year.

vs. Denver - Took Oak at home, lose
@ KC - Looked so bad vs Den, took KC, lose
@ Buf - Said KC was a fluke, Raiders outplay Buf for 3q, lose
vs. SD - Took Oak, should have covered but LT breaks meaningless 44 yard TD run, lose
@NO - Fresh off a bye against a bad D, thought they'd keep up, lose.

So here we are, my 9 - 1 philosophy picks VS. my 0 - 5 Raider picks. Which streak ends Sunday?

[VegasDave]

7 - 5 so far...

Houston and Washington were both looking good. Oh well... the Raiders win makes me happy enough not to complain!

[jjgold]

7-5 not bad

2 games remaining though

GL

[CaneDawg]

lol

[VegasDave]

Games like that Seattle game make me sick to my stomach. Fvcking hate bullshit halfpoint backdoor covers.

Ugggghhh.

[jagermeister1]

Really patting myself on the back, as I never buy points but bought the Bucs line down to -9.5.

Going heavy on Broncos SU and ATS. I hope this isn't some kind of trap line, but I just can't resist this one, for virtually the same reasoning you have.

Good luck, bro.

[jagermeister1]

By the way, on the side, I'm parlaying the Broncos +3 and over 46.5 in this Monday Night matchup. What do you think?

[VegasDave]

Great call jager! I'd have definitely bought it down to 10, but since my newsletter focuses on spreads as they are, I couldn't for the pick, thus it counts against me as a loss. Very frustrating.

I'm liking the Broncos less and less the closer I get to gametime. Don't know why. Just have a bad feeling about it. That said, I definitely like your parlay with the over; if indeed it is Denver's day, I think they will win with offense, not defense. Hopefully they pull it off tomorrow night!