Not being biased at all here. I actually WAS gonna go TB, but after looking into it and thinking about it decided not to. Here's why:
-yeah they've played a TON of close games on the road, so at first glance you'd think it would be better to tease this game the other way to TB +13.5
or to make it a 7pt teaser and get that magical +14.5 # you're looking for but you need to look a bit furthur.
- TBs road wins were going into the homes of CAROLINA, CIN, ARIZONA and 49ers.....should I even write anymore? lol, all those games were very
close and won by very small margins and mostly pulled out at the very end. So YES, they can keep games close with teams that have marginal to POOR
D-units.
- And some people will say "But they even went into ATL and only lost by 6 there....and Baltimore lost to ATL by 1 etc etc." and I'll tell you:
ATL's D is currently ranked 18th for total defense and DEFENSE is my biggest reason for this play here.
- I'll continue. Also when they played a Top 10 Defense team like PIT or NO the games went like this: 38-13 PIT, and 31-6 NO........and these two
games were IN Tampa Bay!!!!!
- So based on Ravens having a Top 10 Defense, I really can't see ANY way possible that the Ravens lose this game and expect the same, especially
with their offense rolling pretty strong now too. Remember with all this talk about defense here that TB has a marginal 16th ranked D.
- Also Pitt plays the lowly Bills the same day and the Ravens know that they need to keep pace to stay at the top of the division here so a WIN is
still needed in this spot. Especially with their upcoming game next week at home against the Steelers! (See below for more)
To sum it up, TB has struggled against GREAT D units and I would tease this the other way based on their strong Road record but I am scared they
possibly could lose by more than 2 tds as it has been shown to happen twice this year and that was at home even. I think as good as that +14.5 looks
in a 7pt teaser that the much stronger way to tease this one is to stick with the 6pter and go with the Ravens -1.5!
Carolina +16
-now THIS is a spot where I will take the panthers ALL day!!!
-lots of reasons:
-talking about defense again.....panthers have only lost 2 games by 16 or more all season......against.....SAINTS and RAVENS lol, and even in the
1st game they played against the saints they were on the road and only lost by 2.
- Browns are ranked 23rd currently on defense.
- Panthers don't put up a lot of offense really, BUT neither does CLE....there's only been 2 games all season where the Browns have even put up more
than 20....I know it's weird because they put up their most points on NE and NO where they had 34 and 30 for those 2 games, BUT....you also have to
dig a little deeper to remember WHY they got those points in those games.
Against NO, Drew Brees had one of his worst if not THE worst game of his season so far throwing 4 picks, which yes they caused but why haven't they
done that to any other QB this year? and why hasnt Brees thrown that many in any other game? (4 picks is over 25% of his season total in this one
game. I know why.....because it was a FLUKE!
Also in the NE game it had a lot of reasons behind the points as well. Right off the bat you got the Coaching duel. Mangini wanted this game BAD!!
and the Patriots and Brady put up points! Point blank! That's just what they do...so in order to keep up/WIN you must do the same. But where did the
points come from? Oh yeahhhhhh, Peyton Hillis had a CAREER game and rushed for 184 yds and 2 tds.....(in his last 4 games which INCLUDES this game
184 yds makes up for just under 50% of his TOTAL yds). Also, Colt McCoy scrambled in for a TD (he has great mobility....) which brings me to my next
point
-THE QB: Jake Delhomme is starting. They will be without McCoy who has an arm and can get around pretty good....Delhomme CAN'T! This guy has only
played a game and a half pretty much and already has 4 INTs LOL.
- Nickname for him is "Injury Prone, Jake Delhomme"!!! This guy could end up injured again in the 1st quarter and then who goes in?! LOL
I mean, Panthers D isn't the greatest either but I'm willing to bank that they can keep Jake in check here.
- I'm not even going to get into how the entire public expects the Browns to SLAUGHTER the "lowly Panthers" because alllll they can remember is how
they got screwed on NE and NO when they bet THEM and they think this is payback (from the books) for when they got screwed in those spots LOL
In all seriousness though and to sum this one up, I just CAN'T see how they lose by MORE than 16, I mean that's if they even lose...I might even
put a small wager on the Carolina ML getting +389 right now.....just sayin tho.
Steelers - PK....
TRUST me! I know this one seems TOO easy etc. etc. BUT, If you're on this forum I would hope you know about a few things;
1- The Steelers Defense...
2- The Bills Defense LOL
and
3- The Bills RUSH Defense....
and
4- Rashard Mendenhall...
- So I know everyone thinks it looks too easy, and there may be better choices than this, but IMO I just really think that even if BEN can't throw
in this game for whatever reason that Rashard will do all the work we need here.
- It's time for a Buffalo let down after back to back wins including the HUGE comeback against the stinky BUNGLES last week, and this is the team
to give it to them.
- The Steelers know my #1 pick and #1 team The Ravens have what should be an easy game for them and either way whatever happens in that game the
Steelers know they can't afford to lose an easy one like this at this point in the season when they are fighting for the division lead with my team
as well.
- Also same as above, next weeks game is IN Baltimore, how convenient....THINK NYJ vs NE storyline here guys. Same thing.
-Trust me again when I say I do actually think despite alllll the stuff listed above about how bad the Bills are that I do STILL believe it will come
down and be a close game! (remember the Bills took my Ravens to OT), BUT, I just can't see Pitts LOSING this game so the Pick'em holds far too much
value IMO and I gotta do it!
RISKING 100 to win 160
Opinions and Thoughts/Comments are welcome. I won't lock it in until I hear a bit of feedback and thoughts like last time where I switched my DET +12.5 to the OVER instead which made me a winner!
Carolina is the only one that might worry me. Have you considered Houston in your teaser. Think about it. Even though they are losing, they still fight. Could have easily folded last week when down 2 tds late. They get a lame duck titan team starting RUSTY SMITH. Enough said. Houston weakness is pass defense. Is RUSTY gonna be able to take advantage of this? He will never be able to score enough to win. Houston is perfect teaser material. IMO. Good luck.
TY sir. Congrats on your teaser as well. I followed all your other plays except your teaser just cuz I had this one for bigger money then my normal picks but this felt good to hit after the analysis I came up with. Went with it and it worked out
Teasers can be VERY profitable if you play your cards right. Avoid the 4,5,6 team teasers and play the 2-3 team teaser and in the long run you'll be cashing out more times then not. Just accept the juice that the teaser gives and you'll be fine
I know I don't even need to be telling you this cause you've been in and out my thread for the most part of the year and you see how I do it.
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RAVENSFAN Week 12 Teaser - Mixing Forum Thoughts
The Ravens have what should be an easy game for them and either way whatever happens in that game the
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Originally Posted by D3 Mighty Ducks
