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Turkey Day Teaser....Mixing Forum Thoughts
MY 3 GAME - 6PT. TEASER
DET +12.5
NYJ -3
NYJ/CIN U49.5
I'M RISKING $100 to win $160 (Once I hear some quick thoughts from now until morning)
(Also my normal units are about 20 bucks so this is not a standard 1 unit play for me. I'm workin on buildin a roll here tho and everyone here has been quite helpful. Just feel like goin bigger tomorrow because I had a +250 swing the last two days from some NBA picks gone good!)
Thoughts: (Based on these things I've read around SBR past couple days)
1. DET +12.5
-From what I've seen in the past couple days a few ppl like NE teased down to .5 etc. meaning they are sure NE wins, but not confident in the cover
-DET 4-0 ATS already at home this season
-Brady didnt practice all week (dont think it matters....hes BRADY, just sayin tho)
-Lots of interest out there on DET+7 so +12.5 can't be too bad
-Lots of talk about the -6.5 NE line being "trappy"
-DET could easily pull a backdoor cover on +6.5 let alone +12.5
-DET Home stats to go with this are great. IE: only lost by 3 to both PHI and NYJ ("superior teams" like NE) and won convincingly against STL(44-6) and WAS (37-25)
(Not even gonna mention the public % on both NE Spread and ML as I don't go off that stuff too often)
2. NYJ -3
-Seems to be lots of interest on NYJ -9 already as BIG plays already for ATS cappers so -3 must be decent imo.
-Barely any interest in CIN at all, even on teasers of +16 ppl are still saying take NYJ -2 etc.
-NYJ battling with NE for division leader spot and they have to go INTO NE next week so they know they need this game to stay on pace or pull ahead, either or.
-Need to prove these last two weeks of OT/Last min. TDs by Holmes aren't flukes
-The above point coupled with the fact that they allowed HOUS to score 27 pts last week which was the most all season after previously allowing no more than 20 pts in all except one game in which MIA got 23. I think Rex Ryan would be all over his D this week to make sure they get a solid win here
-Also to go with the above last 2 points, CIN seems to be giving up on their coach ala MIN last week before Childress was fired, also seems to fit the theme of how everyone was chasing Dallas before saying how they were "due" and we all know they STILL kept losing....
3. NYJ/CIN U49.5
-I know Jets only put 9 pts up against BALT and 0 against GB at home, but besides those 2 games they havent put up less than 23 pts themselves (range is 23-38 for rest) all season and at home the other 3 games they put up 28, 29 and 30 against NE, MIN and HOUS.
-To go with that CIN as mentioned above could be up for a big letdown game here after blowing last weeks lead the one of the NFLs worst teams the Bills.
-I see this game hitting somewhere right around the posted Total of 43.5
-Carson Palmer may or may not play (who cares anyways, like it matters lol) CIN just doesnt put up points against anyone really (one good week against ATL, but against other solid D units like the Ravens they only put up 15 even in their W)
-I see NYJ putting up their usual 25-30pts and CIN maybeeeeee 21 but probably a 24-14 type game.
-Supposed to rain apparently (weather can cause more or less pts imo, could go either way so I cancel this one out, just sayin tho)
That's it for my thoughts, the only one that I've been going back and forth on is the 3rd play as I think O or U on the teaser could work. Just like my reasons above MORE than to pick the O37.5.....
Let me know what you think. I'll be locking in my teaser when I wake up
Thanks all!
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Originally Posted by ParlayJunkie
GL everyone
