1. 01-23-11 10:56 AM #1
    Romanov
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    Help with Basic Moneyline Math

    Using Packers -190 and Bears +171 I calculated that the Pack had a 64% probability to win the game according the Pinnacle and the Bears had 36%. Moving in reverse, removing vig the ML would then be -178 and +178. Does that reveal anything? Should I bet either ML? I think that the -178 shows that the packers ml is bad value and the same for the bears.

    I did the same thing and got the same middling no vig ML on the steelers jets game. MLs went from -205 and +184 to +/-198. Is this useless?
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  2. 01-23-11 11:09 AM #2
    d2bets
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    Doesn't tell you who's going to win but your math is about right. -178 implied a 63% chance to win. IMHO the game is way closer than that, but that's where the market is at.
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  3. 01-23-11 11:09 AM #3
    Romanov
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    Could a mod rename my post "Moneyline Winner and Tits" so people at least open the page
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  4. 01-23-11 11:10 AM #4
    wquine
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    Would also help if you had some on your avatar.
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  5. 01-23-11 11:12 AM #5
    Romanov
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Doesn't tell you who's going to win but your math is about right. -178 implied a 63% chance to win. IMHO the game is way closer than that, but that's where the market is at.
    Thanks. I rounded for the post. So right now betting the ML is a bad bet either way, based solely on the numbers here?
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  6. 01-23-11 11:17 AM #6
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Romanov View Post
    Thanks. I rounded for the post. So right now betting the ML is a bad bet either way, based solely on the numbers here?
    Not sure how you got from point A to Point B there. If you can get +178 and you think the Bears have better than a 37% chance to win, then it's a good bet.
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  7. 01-23-11 12:12 PM #7
    Romanov
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Not sure how you got from point A to Point B there. If you can get +178 and you think the Bears have better than a 37% chance to win, then it's a good bet.

    Okay. I assumed as much but nowhere can we get +178 for the bears. And yes, I think the bears have a great shot to win at home. I dont understand why the line isn't +2.5
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