[StackinGreen]

I know Cantor Gaming usually comes with these in February ...

Has anyone seen any O/U for next year's win totals?


Thanks

[BigdaddyQH]

Still too early.

[StackinGreen]

You on record with any projections of either team wins or what the lines will be, BigDaddy?

[POOLSIDE]

Like we discussed a month ago SG, we've gotta be looking at the over for the NFC north teams. Cupcake schedules. Bears and Packers and Lions probably go over. Minny will likely be overvalued. This year I'm guessing was an anomaly.

[bob6199]

Like we discussed a month ago SG, we've gotta be looking at the over for the NFC north teams. Cupcake schedules. Bears and Packers and Lions probably go over. Minny will likely be overvalued. This year I'm guessing was an anomaly.

The vikings best players are still in their early to mid 20's (Outisde of AP) and you think this year was an anomaly

[POOLSIDE]

The vikings best players are still in their early to mid 20's (Outisde of AP) and you think this year was an anomaly

Yeah I don't think they can fool the league two years in a row with that quarterback. He hasn't grown at all. I don't think he's a permanent solution. I'm not saying they're bad, just that they're overvalued. I haven't looked at all, but I'm guessing their win total will be ~10.5 next year. I'd take the under on that. Not sure why you're laughing at me. Nothing I said was even mildly mockable. Grow up.

I mean, they were 2-5 this year against teams with a winning record. This is a more appropriate place to use that stupid emoji.

Oh and those two wins came against KC before they started playing well, and Green Bay in a game I'm not convinced they wanted to win. Losing meant they'd get to play Washington, who they subsequently trounced.

[StackinGreen]

Of course POOLSIDE knows I'm with him on this one. I'd be surprised at 10.5 but would take that under all day too, I've been on record for a long time saying that Bridgewater isn't the answer but let's be frank, it's possible to be lucky like Peyton with a great D and win. I think the Denver thing was more of an anomaly this year, so many things had to go right (injured Roethlisberger without Brown had them on the ropes, NE loses at Miami to close the season or else NE goes to SB); however, maybe MIN is developing an amazing D.

All in all, I'll take my chances though. I'd guess at most it would be 10, but I hope you are right because that means that Green Bay will not be anything over 10.5. I think MIN will be lucky to get a single win vs. GB next year.

[meader99]

Of course POOLSIDE knows I'm with him on this one. I'd be surprised at 10.5 but would take that under all day too, I've been on record for a long time saying that Bridgewater isn't the answer but let's be frank, it's possible to be lucky like Peyton with a great D and win. I think the Denver thing was more of an anomaly this year, so many things had to go right (injured Roethlisberger without Brown had them on the ropes, NE loses at Miami to close the season or else NE goes to SB); however, maybe MIN is developing an amazing D.

All in all, I'll take my chances though. I'd guess at most it would be 10, but I hope you are right because that means that Green Bay will not be anything over 10.5. I think MIN will be lucky to get a single win vs. GB next year.

GB a slam dunk over 10.

[BigdaddyQH]

The NFC North gets the NFC East and AFC South this season. Both Divisions certainly could qualify for the worst in their conferences. I like to break down the teams as far as their W/L records go from the previous season. Chicago's 6-10 record included a win at Kansas City and at Green Bay, but losses to San Francisco and Washington at home, back to back in December. Detroit didn't start winning until it was too late. They ended the season with three wins against 7-9 New Orleans, 5-11 San Francisco, and 6-10 Chicago. Green Bay was just totally screwed up. They start the season undefeated, and then finish 4-6 after their open date. They go 3-0 on the road against the division, but 0-3 at home. Minnesota came on strong, after a 2-2 start, including a loss at San Francisco. They were the most "normal" team in the division, if you will.

The problems are these. Minnesota still has not been able to produce on offense at a constant level. They were held to 20 points or less 9 times last season. If their total is high (11 or higher) can you really wager on a team that has such a low scoring output to win that many games? Green Bay will also have a high number (my guess is 10 1/2 or higher). They have won 10 or more games in 7 out of their last 8 seasons, so it is hard to go against them, especially with some very important players returning from injury. Chicago and Detroit are major question marks? Chicago has a good chance of losing workhorse RB Forte. Who is going to replace him? Cutler runs hot and cold. The Bears were 4-4 in games decided by 4 points or less. Detroit loses Megatron and who knows how that will affect them. How will it affect QB Stafford mentally?

Here is another consideration. Chicago and Detroit host AFC South teams Jacksonville and Tennessee and travel to Houston and Indy. Green Bay and Minnesota host Houston and Indy and travel to Jacksonville and Tennessee. That is a huge advantage for Green Bay and Minnesota. Chicago and Detroit host Philadelphia and Washington and go to Dallas and the Giants. The reverse is true for Green Bay and Minnesota. I do not see a real advantage either way with that scheduling.

[meader99]

The NFC North gets the NFC East and AFC South this season. Both Divisions certainly could qualify for the worst in their conferences. I like to break down the teams as far as their W/L records go from the previous season. Chicago's 6-10 record included a win at Kansas City and at Green Bay, but losses to San Francisco and Washington at home, back to back in December. Detroit didn't start winning until it was too late. They ended the season with three wins against 7-9 New Orleans, 5-11 San Francisco, and 6-10 Chicago. Green Bay was just totally screwed up. They start the season undefeated, and then finish 4-6 after their open date. They go 3-0 on the road against the division, but 0-3 at home. Minnesota came on strong, after a 2-2 start, including a loss at San Francisco. They were the most "normal" team in the division, if you will.

The problems are these. Minnesota still has not been able to produce on offense at a constant level. They were held to 20 points or less 9 times last season. If their total is high (11 or higher) can you really wager on a team that has such a low scoring output to win that many games? Green Bay will also have a high number (my guess is 10 1/2 or higher). They have won 10 or more games in 7 out of their last 8 seasons, so it is hard to go against them, especially with some very important players returning from injury. Chicago and Detroit are major question marks? Chicago has a good chance of losing workhorse RB Forte. Who is going to replace him? Cutler runs hot and cold. The Bears were 4-4 in games decided by 4 points or less. Detroit loses Megatron and who knows how that will affect them. How will it affect QB Stafford mentally?

Here is another consideration. Chicago and Detroit host AFC South teams Jacksonville and Tennessee and travel to Houston and Indy. Green Bay and Minnesota host Houston and Indy and travel to Jacksonville and Tennessee. That is a huge advantage for Green Bay and Minnesota. Chicago and Detroit host Philadelphia and Washington and go to Dallas and the Giants. The reverse is true for Green Bay and Minnesota. I do not see a real advantage either way with that scheduling.

I would be concerned about the effect losing Gase has on Cutler. They seemed to have develop a good relationship in a short period and now he's gone. I haven't seen anything out of Bridgewater that makes me believe he can be a difference maker. Their defense is certainly stout, but to inconsistent on offense.

[StackinGreen]

I'd be surprised with your suggestion that Minne will be as high, but I hope it is, because I agree with everyone that UNDER would be the clear play.

BigDaddy, Langford is the heir apparent to Forte, and it's not a big loss, if it is at all.

I also agree with meader99 about Gase being a big loss. I looked at Chicago's schedule again and I wouldn't touch it; it looks like they will be RIGHT on it, unless under is the clear play there will be no value.

meader99 if you were able to get GB 10 at -150, would you do it? If they give me a good price I'm willing to go over 11 even.

I ask because usually I've found (and I haven't missed an NFL total in 3 years) that it's always better to give the extra .5 rather than go up to -140 or high juice ... fact is, if they do it, they usually don't squeak it out. Basically, if you go UNDER for example, it's decisively under (like Dallas without Romo this year etc). Even the paradoxical Osweiler effect at Denver sent them way over with Manning injured!

[meader99]

I'd obviously like to see the Packers draft, but I think they win 12 next year with what they have coming back. I thought there was something wrong with Rodgers mid season and I think that was proven by him getting his knee scoped after the season. I'd certainly look at 11 even.

[StackinGreen]

Cantor Gaming:
Green Bay 10.5

Minnesota 9 (over -120)
Chicago 6.5 (over -120)

[StackinGreen]

Hey guys, does anyone know if they keep the NFL win totals up until Sunday for the teams that did not play in that Thursday season opener?

The reason I ask is because I'd like to go to Vegas to put some bets down and If I could fly in on Saturday morning to bet them, I may do it.

[POOLSIDE]

Hey guys, does anyone know if they keep the NFL win totals up until Sunday for the teams that did not play in that Thursday season opener?

The reason I ask is because I'd like to go to Vegas to put some bets down and If I could fly in on Saturday morning to bet them, I may do it.

I believe they will. They know the amount of people that fly in that weekend.

[StackinGreen]

Any way they would answer the question if I called?

[POOLSIDE]

Any way they would answer the question if I called?

Can't hurt to find out

[JayDr3am]

last season minnesota was one of those teams you just had to sit back and watch their course.. this year you can expect a little regression. i dont see them going 8-1 ATS comin out the gate again.. that crap was ridiculous

[StackinGreen]

Can't hurt to find out

POOLSIDE,

I've gotten two different answers from locals in Vegas. One guy said MGM Mirage properties would not take bets once Thursday kicks. He thought that would be across the board type policy. Another guy then came and said he talked to CG, william hill, and Wynn or LVH and they keep them up for the teams that haven't played.

I'd like someone else to weigh in and verify this. Also, how early they'll take $ 5-digit wagers (or multiple 4 digit ones)

[JayDr3am]

isnt just 2teams team is playing on thursday?

[StackinGreen]

Yes.

[Huego]

I already hit Green Bay and New England over 10.5 wins at 5dimes

[StackinGreen]

I'll probably be there well before the first week NFL

Question is, do you guys know if they'll take multiple thousand bets right now? Of when, if they do ...

[StackinGreen]

LVH SuperBook released its numbers supposedly, yesterday. No link on their twitter account like CG had though. Does anyone know the numbers or have a link that shows the sheet somewhere?

Thanks.