1. 08-24-15 10:10 PM #1
    JIBBBY
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    Superbowl Futures - playing the bottom half...

    Need your opinions.... Am I throwing away $300 on this?

    We've seen teams come up from the cellar and win the superbowls in years past.. Key injuries can kill projected contenders.. Green Bay Packers just lost a key player in pre season play for example... Got to thinking and came up with this play...

    $300 invested in this below trying to win $700 or more (18 bet plays with the bottom projected teams).. Can hedge if one of these teams actually make it to the Superbowl as well..


    8/24/15 11:04pm $25.00 $1075.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - New Orleans Saints +4300*
    8/24/15 11:03pm $25.00 $1125.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Atlanta Falcons +4500*
    8/24/15 11:01pm $25.00 $1125.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Kansas City Chiefs +4500*
    8/24/15 11:00pm $25.00 $1175.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Minnesota Vikings +4700*

    8/24/15 9:36pm $20.00 $1000.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - New York Giants +5000*
    8/24/15 9:36pm $20.00 $1000.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - San Diego Chargers +5000*
    8/24/15 9:35pm $20.00 $1100.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Buffalo Bills +5500*
    8/24/15 9:34pm $20.00 $1140.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Houston Texans +5700*
    8/24/15 9:33pm $20.00 $1250.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - San Francisco 49ers +6250*
    8/24/15 9:32pm $15.00 $1050.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - St Louis Rams +7000*
    8/24/15 9:32pm $15.00 $1200.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - New York Jets +8000*
    8/24/15 9:31pm $10.00 $4000.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Tennessee Titans +40000*
    8/24/15 9:30pm $10.00 $4000.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Jacksonville Jaguars +40000*
    8/24/15 9:30pm $10.00 $3250.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Oakland Raiders +32500*
    8/24/15 9:29pm $10.00 $2400.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers +24000*
    8/24/15 9:28pm $10.00 $2250.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Washington Redskins +22500*
    8/24/15 9:28pm $10.00 $2000.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Cleveland Browns +20000*
    8/24/15 9:27pm $10.00 $1100.00 Pending 9/10/15 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl 50 - Chicago Bears +11000*


    Thoughts?
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  2. 08-25-15 07:54 AM #2
    slacker00
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    Interesting idea. But you'd be better off picking one longshot from each conference, maybe 2 or 3 if you can't pare down the field. Taking every single dog is too much of a brute force approach. The main problem is that multi-way props are always juiced to the gills.

    Another idea, for example if you want to fade GB winning the SB (from your example above), 5Dimes has this one:
    Thu 9/10 25003 Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl +500
    8:30PM 25004 Field wins Super Bowl 50 -650
    At the very least, you can pinpoint the angle you are pressing based on injuries or whatever other info.
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  3. 08-25-15 09:15 AM #3
    pinchegringo
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    I feel you could have left off quite a few of those to increase your ROI, but then I just took SEA and GB to win it and IND and NE to go, so not really feeling the long shots personally.
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  4. 08-25-15 10:39 AM #4
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinchegringo View Post
    I feel you could have left off quite a few of those to increase your ROI, but then I just took SEA and GB to win it and IND and NE to go, so not really feeling the long shots personally.
    Bad strategy, betting two teams likely to meet each other, basically betting against yourself paying juice both ways.
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  5. 08-25-15 11:12 AM #5
    JIBBBY
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    Thanks guys, yep could have left out a few off the list.. Like the Raiders and a few absolute other bottom dwellers from last year..

    I just remember Troy Aikman and the Dallas Cowboys went from the cellar to winning to the superbowl back in the day in no time.. Ravens came from nothing back in the day to win the superbowl.. Tampa Bay Bucs did it as well...

    Just not sure all the expected favorites can make it to the superbowl every year like the Packers, Patriots and Broncos have done recently.. We are over due for a surprise team to pop up anyways.. Couple of these teams I picked on the list were almost knocking at the door last year and weren't all that bad..

    IDK? This bottom field of play just popped in my head and I went with it... 18 bottom picks is more then half the amount of teams in the league as well..
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-25-15 at 11:15 AM.
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  6. 08-25-15 11:37 AM #6
    Vinnie Paz
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    Total waste. Sorry to be blunt but it is what it is.
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  7. 08-25-15 11:56 AM #7
    MoMoneyMoVaughn
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    Much better use of $300

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  8. 08-25-15 12:00 PM #8
    JIBBBY
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    ^^^^We'll see fellas as I hope I didn't just piss away $300... 18 teams say that's not the case... ROI is more then double too, so there has to be some risk..

    Teams like the Saints, Vikings, Atlanta, Chargers, 49ers, Texans and Giants on that list above weren't that bad last year but just had some bad breaks or went thru bad stretches.....One of these teams could do something this year..
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-25-15 at 12:05 PM.
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  9. 08-25-15 12:15 PM #9
    slacker00
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    I guess the 1999 Rams were 300-1 odds at one point. Food for thought. Makes me like TEN +400 for a min bet.
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  10. 08-25-15 08:03 PM #10
    pinchegringo
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Bad strategy, betting two teams likely to meet each other, basically betting against yourself paying juice both ways.
    I understand your point but that was by design. I basically have what i think are the 2 best teams vs the field @+200 to win it all and also the 2 best in the afc to come out of the afc whom i dont think match up well against yhe nfc.

    I hope those are the last 4 standing worst case my ROI is 1% or around that and i have a ton of arb spots.
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  11. 08-26-15 07:08 AM #11
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinchegringo View Post
    I understand your point but that was by design. I basically have what i think are the 2 best teams vs the field @+200 to win it all and also the 2 best in the afc to come out of the afc whom i dont think match up well against yhe nfc.

    I hope those are the last 4 standing worst case my ROI is 1% or around that and i have a ton of arb spots.
    You've gotta be trolling me. Incoherent nonsense. ROI and arb? At least learn what those terms mean. Sheesh. I don't even want to ask where that 1% comes from, I have a stinking suspicion. You've got a ton of "arb spot", again, I don't want to know.
    Last edited by slacker00; 08-26-15 at 07:12 AM.
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  12. 08-26-15 04:41 PM #12
    pinchegringo
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    hedge spots whatever, if the worst odds of any 4 of those things happens I return 4.9u after risking 4u...so 22.5% ROI.

    The 1% was because I knew it was +ROI but didnt feel like checking my sheets to know exactly what I had.
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  13. 08-26-15 08:35 PM #13
    JIBBBY
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    I keep reading articles like this on how teams will finish and in what order and laugh (USA TODAY) http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...olts/30985171/

    NFL is so wide open as you have to think it's like the highest injury prone sport. Key players get injured game to game.. Alot of the great players are getting older now also.. The Payton Mannings and what not.. They take a good shot good night Irene for that team!!!

    I think you can't count on coaching to be consistent for the year but player personal at only the start of season.. Mid season we are looking at almost half a starting team paying second stringers players in alot of cases.. It's crazy.. Oh and if your star QB takes a shot and goes down it's almost game over for that contending team.... So which team had handled injuries the best recently, probably a team like the Patriots with coach B..

    I think it's time for a sleeper team to step up fellas and shock some people this year!!!.
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  14. 08-27-15 12:40 AM #14
    Roy Keane
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    Parity
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  15. 08-27-15 12:13 PM #15
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Keane View Post
    Parity
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parity_%28sports%29
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  16. 08-27-15 12:59 PM #16
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinchegringo View Post
    hedge spots whatever, if the worst odds of any 4 of those things happens I return 4.9u after risking 4u...so 22.5% ROI.

    The 1% was because I knew it was +ROI but didnt feel like checking my sheets to know exactly what I had.
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