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I'm a sucker for home dogs too. I just can't take the Bears, probably the worst defense in the NFL and the biggest loser playing QB for them. At same time, how can you lay 3 on the road with the Saints. If I had to choose id blind bet the over and lay the points with NO. I dunno, your guess is as good as mine.Originally Posted by Tommy Karate
Im provavly going to end to end up taking Saints.
Any reason why books juicing saints at -3 rather than moving to 3.5?
public %'s showing 80% on the saints....ughhh
Why do you like Bears, I see you've even send more reasons why to back NO
i went the other way and took the saints - i just usually auto take a home dog on TV, especially when NO is road fav. 3-3 on the road this season ats though..
(3u) Saints -3/-125
I agree. Without Marshall they lost their only reliable offensive player, which is odd but true.
If they score, it'll go over. I'm feeling like Saints is better than the over, just don't know though
jeffrey is also a legit stud and lets not forget forte; their issues are on defense, O-Line and the Brain of JC
Don't forget the lockerroom issues between Cutler and the OC Kromer.
Let's gear up for week 16-17 here - big weeks historically
Last edited by mlb; 12-16-14 at 10:32 AM.
Only thing I ended up playing was 2H over, haha that run by Ingram did it then the Bears actually scored again!
My malaise has been showing --- I've had a real good 3 weeks but since the bad start haven't been regular here boys. Sorry.
Week 15: 10-9 (+2.8u)
N1: 2-2
N3: 1-1
N6: 0-1
N12: 0-1
N13: 1-1
N14: 1-0
Non-Auto: 8-6 (+7.8u)
======================
NFL YTD: 142-131 (+25.85u)
N1: 7-4
N2: 2-2
N3: 5-11
N4: 1-1
N5: 1-2
N6: 2-3
N7: 13-11
N8: 6-9
N9: 1-0
N10: 6-3
N12: 8-9
N13: 8-6
N14: 7-6
Non-Auto: 95-85 (+49u)
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 12-16-14 at 08:24 PM.
Thursday 12.18
(6u) Jaguars -2.5/-140 (N1, N12)
I like the Jags too. Let's ride.
Really liking chargers over 49ers this Saturday
can only get -3.5 ... dunno
What about the total boys?
does anyone have the exact records of teams the following week after playing sea? just glancing at the last few weeks, fading these teams is money. i forgot about this angle till now; used it last season...
anything to do with SF off the Sea game?
Probably because the opposing team is always so beat up from seattles physical play.
theres multiple reasons I'm with chargers on this game though. It's in san fransico which is extremely close to San Diego so I don't think there will be to much home advantage with all the chargers fans cheering on there team. Plus chargers are playing for there lives right now to make the playoffs they need to win out, 49ers could care less about the game, their season is done and it's not a divisional game to get up for. Chargers defense has been on point last few weeks and 49ers cannot score the ball.. 24-13 San Diego
ship it
I did research on this angle and used scores and odds to find lines. Each teams that played Seattle the prior week, has their following week’s ATS bolded as a W or L.
Week 1
GB (A) played Seattle (H) week 1 and lost 36-16
following game GB beats NYJ 31-24. Line opened at -8 closed at -7 GB
LOST/PUSHED
week 2
SD (H) played Seattle (A) and won 30-12
following game SD beat Buffalo 22-10. Line opened at +1 SD closed +3 SD
WON
week 3
Denver (A) played Seattle (H) and lost 26-20 in OT
following game Denver beat AZ 41-20. Line hovered right around -8.5 Denver
WON
Week 4
Seattle BYE week
Week 5
Washington (H) played Seattle (A) and lost 27-17
Following game Washington lost to AZ 30-20. Line opened Washington +3 closed +5
LOST
Week 6
Dallas (A) played Seattle (H) and won 30-23
Following game Dallas beat the NYG 31-21. Line hovered around Dallas -4.5/-5
WON
Week 7
St. Louis (H) played Seattle and won 28-26
Following week St. Louis played KC, lost 34-7. Line opened -6 KC and closed -7.5 KC
LOST
Week 8
Carolina (H) played Seattle (A) and lost 13-9
Following week Carolina played NO and lost 28-10. Line opened -1.5 NO closed around PK.
LOST
Week 9
Oakland (A) played Seattle (H) and lost 30-24.
Following week Oakland played Denver and lost 41-17. Line opened +10.5 OAK and closed around +7 OAK.
LOST
Week 10
NYG (A) played Seattle (H) and lost 38-17.
Following week NYG played SF and lost 16-10. Line opened NYG +3 closed NYG +4
LOST
Week 11
KC (H) played Seattle (A) and won 24-20.
Following week KC played at OAK and lost 24-20. Line was KC -7.
LOST
Week 12
AZ (A) played Seattle (H) and lost 19-3.
Following week AZ played at ATL and lost 29-18. Line hovered around AZ -1.5/-1.
LOST
Week 13
SF (H) played Seattle (A) and lost 19-3.
Following week SF played at OAK and lost 24-13. Line
LOST
Week 14
Philly (H) played Seattle (A) and lost 24-14.
Following week Philly played at home against Dallas at lost 38-27. Line hovered around -3 Philly.
LOST
Week 15
SF (A) played Seattle (H) and lost 17-7.
SF plays at home against SD this week.
Teams playing Seattle are a combined 3W and 10L ATS the following week.
If you got GB Week 1 at -7, then Teams are a combined 3W, 9L, 1T.
Teams playing Seattle are on an 8L ATS streak currently.
ONLY teams to win ATS following week:
SD @ Buffalo
DENVER home against AZ
Dallas @ NYG
Teams who have LOST ATS following week:
GB @ NYG (or a push if you got -7)
WAS @ AZ
STL @ KC
CAROLINA home to NO
OAK home to Denver
NYG home to SF
KC @ OAK
AZ @ ATL
SF @ OAK
Philly home to Dallas
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Jack was 1 .. now we go
i knew it.....we missed the party; dont be silly and pound SD. i say we play it, but nothing heavy.
as long as sea has the same core team next season, we have a new auto...
good research ihate..thx
I would like Chargers more if Rivers wasn't so banged up. He is the same guy who played with a torn ACL. IMO Niners have given up. Harbough has one foot out the door.
Do you have any read on the Skins game tomorrow? 7.5 seems like a lot, but maybe books are trying to tell us something there.
i made my fantasy championship and im actually going to sit rivers for alex smith. hope i dont regret it.
skins are a multi auto bet for me....i like them as well. divisional home dog always a strong lean for me...i think RG3 plays well...
I think Skins are the play on Sat. Might end up skipping that game to be honest. I would much rather play the SF game. SF in chambles, talks about their coach going somewhere else after season. Team cant score for their lives. SF has also played Seattle twice the last 3 weeks. If we are seriously considering backing this trend, which has proven to be a good season long trend, why would we not back SD here. SF played seattle twice in last 3 weeks and SD BEAT seattle this year AND won their next game SA and ATS. I think SD should seriously be considered. The 8 week straight trend has me worried because everything comes to an end. SD is play for me but only going medium on them.
I think that's the right move going with Smith over Rivers. I made the championship in my big money league and I have to decide between Latavius Murray, Joseph Randle, Blount, and Andre Williams. Any idea there? I'll go with Randle if Demarco sits, but sounds like he'll play for Cowboys. Leaning towards Latavius but not really sure.
I want to take Skins but they seem like they are in a similar situation to Bears. Team has given up and QB is trash.
Randle
Murray
Williams
If you're favored to win and want to be conservative, go Williams. If youre a heavy dog and need to gamble for a big score, Murray. But def Randle if he plays, obviously....GL Krit
Sat 12.20
(2u) Chargers (NBY)
(1u) Under SF/SD 41
(6u) Redskins +7.5 (N1)
(2u) Under Redskins 51 (N3)
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 12-20-14 at 03:28 PM.
booked SD @ +1.5
Sunday 12.21
(4u) Bucs (N9, N13); NBY
(6u) Bears (N1, N4, N9); NBY
(6u) Saints -6/-120 (N1)
(6u) Jets (N1, N4, N9, N13); NBY
(4u) Raiders +7/-120 (N6)
(6u) Cardinals (N1, N4, N11); NBY
(1u) Colts +3.5
(6u) Over KC 49 (N10)
(1u) Under Browns 41
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 12-21-14 at 11:53 AM.
booked plays; tb +12; bears +10.5/-120; jets +10.5/-120;
(3u) Over Colts 52.5
(1u) Under Rams 43.5
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 12-21-14 at 02:41 PM.
colts live right now a good play.....think they win it late
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