[suicidekings]

I think mock drafts are stupid. There's only a handful of players each season that are truly elite prospects that fall into the must-have category (call it the top 20 players) and from that point on it becomes more and more subjective, dependent on each team's needs. However "professional analysts" keep fans' attention at this time of year by constantly releasing and updating their opinions on how it will all play out. A complete waste of time on both ends.

I prefer to look at it by position in terms of who will impress and who will disappoint in the 2014 season. Sometimes that means sleepers that aren't on many "experts" radar, and sometimes that will be the most hyped players in the draft. Listed as Best, Busts & Wildcards in no particular order within the subgroup. Just my opinions. I like to write them out like this because it really helps me get my head straight on how I feel about the players coming into this season and how they'll actually impact the teams that draft them. Doing this kind of review later in the summer is a lot tougher as I find it harder to get the same level of objectivity. I'll get to all the positions eventually, but it's tedious work. Comments very welcome.

[suicidekings]

RUNNING BACKS - One of my favourite positions to break down, normally. Unfortunately, this year's crop is weak. No real standouts, with several well rounded players available. The hype machine is working hard to sell us on what's available, but for the most part, this is not the year for teams to really be looking for a franchise player in the backfield.

Teams that need a quality RB: Falcons, Browns, Dolphins, Jets, Giants, Cardinals

The Best

1) Bishop Sankey - I think Sankey will ultimately prove to be the best RB in this year's draft. He doesn't have true breakaway speed (4.49 40yd), but he has great balance and toughness, making him hard to tackle. He's got good base metrics (5'9" 209lb) and has proven to be very durable. What really makes him stand out to me is his exceptional lateral quickness. With a little stutter step here and there he finds seams even in tough defensive fronts and has the size to force his way through to make him a consistently positive gainer. He also has the benefit of coming out of a physically tough PAC12 conference which speaks well for his performance in college standing up at the next level. He will likely be drafted by a team that's looking for a #1 RB and will be expected to perform.
2) Jeremy Hill - I love this kid. Off-field issues have plagued him, but he's a prototypical power tailback in terms of size (6'0" 233lb) and while he doesn't have breakaway speed (4.66 40 yd), he's a monster between the tackles that's extremely difficult to stop and has demonstrated outstanding ball security, making for a highly reliable RB with a big upside if he gets drafted into the right situation (good team culture, power running scheme, not asked to be the #1 immediately). He should go in the middle rounds but you can be sure there are several teams hoping he's still available later on.
3) Ka'Deem Carey - Carey is a very good technical running back. Great situtional awareness, great vision, a powerful frame, and a violent running style, always driving forward, that all translates to him being a superior "yards after contact" tailback. The promise that he showed in 2012 was confirmed in 2013 with a second monster season. I think he's the second best RB after Sankey, and both of them should be drafted high.

The Busts

1) Lache Seastrunk - When you're the primary tailback in an Art Briles spread offense going up against pass-heavy Big 12 defenses, there's a big natural advantage built into the opportunity you have to make highlight plays. Briles features an exceptionally wide placement of his (fast, athletic) receivers, which tends to clear out a lot of space for edge running & fly sweeps, which is where Seastrunk really did the bulk of his damage. His numbers are inflated because of it, and teams should be cautious with him. That's not to say I don't like him. He's probably the most athletic RB available this year and is blazing fast. His combine results are setting him up to be among the top 3/4 RBs chosen, potentially getting a 1st/2nd round call. However in terms of how his skill-set will translate to the NFL, I think he will be overdrafted and will ultimately be a disappointment.
2) Tre Mason - He's a classic example of great timing and the chance to capitalize on it, entering the draft in the national spotlight. Gus Malzahn is another genius coach that operates a quirky offensive scheme, relying on sleight of hand out of a base offensive look on almost every snap. Mason wasn't forced to pass protect all that much and isn't much of a receiver. He'll be taken early, but has a huge amount of work to do to transition his game to the NFL where he'll be asked to do things where he's really an unproven commodity. He might ultimately succeed, but I think his first year will be a very tough one for him, and teams should shy away from drafting him too early.
3) Devonta Freeman - Indecisive, ball security issues, weaker between the tackles but lacking elite speed to reach the edge against faster NFL defenses. He's not particularly big or strong, and ran in a deep backfield with no evidence of his ability to endure a greater number of carries over the course of a season. He also ran behind one of best offensive lines in college football. Way too many question marks to me. The weak field is raising his draft stock considerably. Personally, I would not take him at any point in the draft.

The Wildcards

1) Jerick McKinnon - Outstanding combine results following a non-descript career on an FCS team that annually runs over everyone. At this point it's kind of hard to imagine him not getting some attention near the end of the draft. Way too many question marks, IMO, for most teams to spend a draft pick, but a great FA signing, potentially.
2) Carlos Hyde - I think he had pretty much the results you'd expect from a 240lb OSU RB. Good base metrics, with impressive toughness in individual plays that didn't always translate over the course of a game. He's too inconsistent for me, and he would be in the Bust column if he was getting more attention. He's nominally sitting near the top in draft projections (in the weak field), but anything above a 5/6th round selection would be foolish.
3) James Wilder Jr - Much of what applies to Freeman applies to him, in terms of where he played. That incredible OL helped him, and he didn't have to carry the ball excessively. He's not elite, but has some really excellent tendencies in completing plays, particularly in big situations. I think he's got a decent upside, but he's also had a series of injuries and off-field issues making him a big question mark.

[suicidekings]

On to my least favourite personnel group...

QUARTERBACKS - For obvious reasons, this is the position getting the bulk of the attention this year from every analyst. Several NFL teams are in dire need of a high quality starting QB, and fortunately for them, there are a ton of options available that have the potential to turn into decent starting QBs. Unfortunately, not many of them are game-ready at this point. I think there are three that will be taken in the 1st/2nd round (TB/JM/BB) and then a bunch that shouldn't get the call until the 3rd or later, regardless of team needs.

Teams that need a QB: Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Arizona, Cleveland, Minnesota, Tennessee

The Best

1) Teddy Bridgewater - I love smart QBs, and that's what Bridgewater is, showing great ability to manipulate defenses to open up space for his receivers. He's patient, he's accurate, and over the last two years has been one of the best QBs in college football in making plays under pressure (blitzes). Given more time to work, he can pick defenses apart. Playing a soft schedule has undoubtedly helped him a bit, stats-wise, but when you really break down his game, he's the most polished and composed QB available this season. The only real criticism I have of him is regarding the mechanics of his throwing motion. He releases the ball very low, which is not allowing him to take advantage of his height (6'3"). In the face of taller NFL defensive linemen, he would benefit a great deal from improving his mechanics over the summer. All in all, I think he's the only quarterback that really deserves a 1st round selection, and given the teams in the hunt for a QB, he should be a top 5 overall pick.
2) AJ McCarron - You're not going to find a more battle-tested QB in the draft than McCarron. His career was a solid one, playing under an immense amount of pressure to win. He's a smart kid and makes very good decisions on the field, taking what defenses give him and not being afraid to throw the ball away and live for another play. His primary criticism over the years has been arm strength in deep passing, tending to leave the ball hanging a bit, but in short and intermediate passing, he can make bullet passes or soft touches, as needed, with high accuracy. QBs that can stretch the field vertically are great, but one that makes very few mistakes is almost as good. By no means am I saying he should be drafted high, but if you're an NFL team with a well established (but perhaps somewhat injury prone) #1 QB and good receivers (see PIT, GB, CIN, etc), looking for a backup, you just can't do much better than McCarron in the 4th/5th in this draft, where he will probably still be available.
3) Zack Mettenberger - Mettenberger stepped up big time in his senior season after a tough junior year. I think there's been dramatic improvement in his abilities and his command of the pocket, leading me to believe that given the right situation, he could still have a lot of upward mobility. He's very much a stay at home passer, with limited athleticism, and the most important thing for him to change about his current style is to be more confident in his position in the pocket. He panics a little when the pocket collapses as if he's not a 6'5" 260lb man, leading to errant throws. He needs a bit more of a Roethlisberger attitude when dropping back and he could be a good NFL QB.
4) Tajh Boyd (When I started writing this, I had Boyd on a different list, but talked myself into it.) - Boyd's career has revolved around making short passes to elite receivers that make big plays after the catch. And in the ACC against fairly soft schedules... That said, he has above average arm strength and accuracy. Good composure in a collapsing pocket, and possesses strong leadership skills. He's also got above average athleticism and toughness. It's really just his resume that is in question, as he has all the physical & mental tools to succeed. I think he's an ideal choice for a team that needs a starting QB but doesn't want to burn a 1st round pick on one. He should still be available in the 3rd, I would think, and is probably the 4th best "game ready" option available after TB/JM/BB.

Busts

1) Blake Bortles - Bortles is very intelligent, with great base metrics (6'5" 230lb). His pocket presence is outstanding, and even though he has the ability to move the ball with his legs, he stays focused downfield. He was well coached by George O'Leary and in some ways he's very ready for the NFL. However this really gets undercut by his accuracy issues and lack of arm strength. He throws off his back foot too often and struggles in stretching the field vertically. He's inconsistent in targeting WRs, taking them out of their stride to correct for errant throws. He also saw a huge national spotlight shining on him at the end of the season, and he's horribly overvalued at this point. He should not be a first round selection, but will likely be taken early and expected to start in Week 1. He will likely struggle.
2) Johnny Manziel - A lot of people love to hate him, but I'm actually a fan. At least of him at the college level... His mobility made him lethal, however in the NFL mobile QBs have to make a choice between continuing to be a scrambler (this is VERY hard to coach out of a player) or to become more of a pocket passer that uses his legs AFTER going through progressions or to take advantage of defensive breakdowns. RGIII showed what happens to QBs that are more athlete than field general. Russell Wilson is on the other end of the spectrum. Manziel has the arm strength and accuracy to be a pocket passer, but just isn't big enough to be scrambling as he will take big hits. I could even get behind an array of designed QB runs being available in the playbook, but he just has such a huge likelihood of injury in my opinion that he can't be a 1st round pick. That said, he'll be drafted in the top 8, almost definitely going to a team with OL issues and the outcome will be visible from a long way off...

These two are probably the two most over-hyped players in this year's draft. Both have their potential, but also have a lot of issues to work through before they can lead a team effectively in the NFL. They're busts because so much is likely to be expected of them and they won't live up to it.

Wildcards

1) David Carr - You know what you're going to get from him for the most part. Big arm, great accuracy, stays with his passing options as routes develop downfield, but prone to crumbling under pressure when the pocket collapses. Not as mentally tough as he needs to be, and almost exclusively plays out of the shotgun, so he definitely needs some work. I feel like he might be the type to which being a decent QB came naturally because of his athleticism, but will hit his ceiling short of where he needs to be a true #1 starter because of a lack of brains/composure.
2) Aaron Murray - I really like Aaron Murray for so many reasons, but when you break down his game, he's a 6'0" QB that contributes to the argument that short QBs can't succeed in the NFL. He gets stopped at the line of scrimmage WAY too often by big defensive linemen batting down his passes. He's decently athletic but not fast or durable enough to rely on running the ball out of a collapsing pocket, except at great need. Solid arm strength and accuracy, and his senior season was marred by a ton of injuries to his skill players and then his own eventual ACL tear, which is on pace for him to be available for training camps but is still a source of concern. He's got potential if given the chance to play in the right situation, but it's hard to believe he'll see the field this year.
3) Jimmy Garoppolo - His strongest attribute is his leadership. He had four years to grow as the on-field leader and his confidence is good. However everything else falls into the good but not great category. Arm strength issues on long throws, bad throwing mechanics, and his decision-making under pressure are all areas that need improvement. Also, while I'm willing to accept linemen from the FCS almost at par, I'm highly skeptical of FCS skill positional players finding success in the NFL.
4) Connor Shaw - Another player that gets a lot of hate, unjustly. I've always been a big fan of Shaw and I think in this seller's QB market, he has a very good chance of being drafted in the later rounds. I think he's mislabelled as a running QB. He's a very smart QB that takes what offenses give him but also has the arm strength to stretch the field vertically. Like I said above, smart QBs are what I'm looking for, and when a guy has the mental side, but also elite athleticism, I think he's a pretty good bet to find a place to play, although likely in a support role for 2014.

[wildcorndog]

You lost all credibility with me after the AJ MCarron write up.

[YouHave2outs]

this thread is a complete joke.. i didn't even read the second post, the first one was hilarious/awful

[YouHave2outs]