1. 11-28-12 07:01 PM #1
    ny92mike
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    Correlation for the win

    Correlation for the win.
    I’ve been working on a project that hopefully will aid me in betting. Found this site a couple days ago and thought I’d post to get the forum’s feedback.
    The process is somewhat simple in that formula looks at the direct correlation to determine which stats are important in terms of winning and losing. For example, offensive game stats (see below) obviously there is a high correlation with points per game and actually winning the game. Turnovers are another high correlation with winning. With every stat there is a correlation be it high neutral or low. What I do is take those correlations to determine the outcome of a game.
    Correlation
    		 Pts/G
    		Scrm Plys
    		 Yds/G
    		 Yds/P
    		 1st/G
    		 3rd Md
    		 3rd Att
    		 3rd Pct
    		 4th Md
    		 4th Att
    		 4th Pct
    		 Pen
    		 Pen Yds
    		 ToP/G
    		 FUM
    		 Lost
    		 TO
    Record Correlation:
    		 73.9%|
    		 20.6%|
    		 46.2%|
    		 43.8%|
    		 48.9%|
    		 44.1%|
    		 -0.3%|
    		 50.6%|
    		 -19.3%|
    		 -41.0%|
    		 7.8%|
    		 -28.1%|
    		 -32.7%|
    		 34.9%|
    		 -65.0%|
    		 -53.4%|
    		 53.1%

    The formula has correctly picked the winner roughly 73% of the time, which for me it’s worth betting on. I originally created the formula to produce power rankings for a football forum I visit regularly. The ranking list Strength of Schedule however at this time it is not being calculated into the power ranking.
    Current Power Ranking
    Win Loss Points For TEAMNAME SoS Value Rank
    8 3 407 NewEnglandPatriots 57% 13.4 1
    10 1 327 HoustonTexans 90% 11.7 2
    8 3 318 DenverBroncos 64% 11.4 3
    8 2 276 SanFrancisco49ers 100% 10.8 4
    8 3 277 ChicagoBears 77% 10.5 5
    10 1 294 AtlantaFalcons 41% 10.1 6
    7 4 305 NewYorkGiants 29% 9.2 7
    6 5 282 CincinnatiBengals 3% 9.1 8
    6 5 310 TampaBayBuccaneers 52% 8.9 9
    5 6 295 WashingtonRedskins -4% 8.7 10
    7 4 273 GreenBayPackers 20% 8.7 11
    9 2 283 BaltimoreRavens -4% 8.6 12
    4 7 267 DetroitLions -16% 8.6 13
    6 5 231 PittsburghSteelers -4% 8.2 14
    6 5 219 SeattleSeahawks 20% 8.0 15
    5 6 242 DallasCowboys -11% 7.3 16
    6 5 248 MinnesotaVikings -8% 7.2 17
    7 4 230 IndianapolisColts -22% 7.2 18
    4 7 245 SanDiegoChargers -19% 7.1 19
    5 6 211 MiamiDolphins -27% 6.7 20
    4 6 205 St.LouisRams -50% 6.6 21
    4 7 243 BuffaloBills -56% 6.6 22
    3 8 214 CarolinaPanthers -36% 6.5 23
    5 6 308 NewOrleansSaints 2% 6.3 24
    3 8 209 ClevelandBrowns -30% 5.8 25
    4 7 238 TennesseeTitans -107% 5.0 26
    4 7 221 NewYorkJets -27% 5.0 27
    4 7 180 ArizonaCardinals -14% 4.7 28
    3 8 218 OaklandRaiders -118% 4.3 29
    3 8 184 PhiladelphiaEagles -63% 4.3 30
    2 9 188 JacksonvilleJaguars -101% 3.1 31
    1 10 161 KansasCityChiefs -90% 3.1 32

    Providing the post draws any attention I’ll continue to post the projected results of each weeks games along with the spread. Again if you have any questions or feedback it is very much welcome.
    Match ups / Spreads for the week.
    November 29, 2012 / 20:20 New Orleans Saints 20 @ Atlanta Falcons 23… NO +3.5
    December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 @ Buffalo Bills 41… BUF-6
    December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears… na
    December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions… na
    December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Minnesota Vikings 22 @ Green Bay Packers 23… MIN+9
    December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Carolina Panthers 37 @ Kansas City Chiefs 9… CAR-3
    December 2, 2012 / 13:00 New England Patriots 40 @ Miami Dolphins 16… NE-7.5
    December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Arizona Cardinals 17 @ New York Jets 18… ARI-4.5
    December 2, 2012 / 13:00 San Francisco 49ers 33 @ St. Louis Rams 18… SF-7
    December 2, 2012 / 13:00 Houston Texans 30 @ Tennessee Titans 19… HOU-6
    December 2, 2012 / 16:05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 @ Denver Broncos 30… TB+7
    December 2, 2012 / 16:25 Pittsburgh Steelers 11 @ Baltimore Ravens 27… na
    December 2, 2012 / 16:25 Cleveland Browns 20 @ Oakland Raiders 20… na
    December 2, 2012 / 16:25 Cincinnati Bengals 14 @ San Diego Chargers 3… CIN-2
    December 2, 2012 / 20:20 Philadelphia Eagles 11 @ Dallas Cowboys 23… DAL-10
    December 3, 2012 / 20:30 New York Giants 26 @ Washington Redskins 20… na

    Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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  2. 11-28-12 07:52 PM #2
    JayLA
    On to the next one...
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    Do you have prior weeks' predictions to see how it's working?
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  3. 11-28-12 08:26 PM #3
    ny92mike
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    I do have my picks as well as scores but I don't have the spreads. I'll post shortly.
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  4. 11-29-12 01:25 AM #4
    ny92mike
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    I ran out of time today to post it up right but here is the last couple weeks.

    November 22, 2012 / 12:30 Houston Texans 37 @ Detroit Lions 24__________________14
    November 22, 2012 / 16:15 Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys_________________7
    November 22, 2012 / 20:20 New England Patriots 49 @ New York Jets 7______________15
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Minnesota Vikings 20 @ Chicago Bears 23________________9
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals__________________13
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Pittsburgh Steelers 26 @ Cleveland Browns 12___________12
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Buffalo Bills 18 @ Indianapolis Colts 25_________________1
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Tennessee Titans 14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 13___________11
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Denver Broncos 37 @ Kansas City Chiefs 18______________16
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins___________________8
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers_______________4
    November 25, 2012 / 16:05 Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers________________5
    November 25, 2012 / 16:25 St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals____________________3
    November 25, 2012 / 16:25 San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints_____________10
    November 25, 2012 / 20:20 Green Bay Packers 24 @ New York Giants 41_____________2
    November 26, 2012 / 20:30 Carolina Panthers 41 @ Philadelphia Eagles 23____________6


    Previous week

    November 15, 2012 / 20:20 Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills-------------------------------2
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Arizona Cardinals 18 @ Atlanta Falcons 25---------------13
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 @ Carolina Panthers 17-----11
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys------------------------7
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Green Bay Packers 24 @ Detroit Lions 17-------------------4
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 11 @ Houston Texans 30-----------14
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Cincinnati Bengals 30 @ Kansas City Chiefs 18----------10
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Indianapolis Colts 20 @ New England Patriots 30------12
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 New York Jets 17 @ St. Louis Rams 19------------------------3
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Philadelphia Eagles 18 @ Washington Redskins 24-----9
    November 18, 2012 / 16:05 New Orleans Saints @ Oakland Raiders--------------------6
    November 18, 2012 / 16:25 San Diego Chargers 3 @ Denver Broncos 33---------------8
    November 18, 2012 / 20:20 Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers--------------------1
    November 19, 2012 / 20:30 Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers----------------------5

    If you've got any questions please feel free to ask. I'll do my best to answer it.
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  5. 11-29-12 01:39 AM #5
    FatalFunnel
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    Interesting stuff here
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  6. 11-29-12 07:09 AM #6
    bigelv
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    So for to tonight's game it's picking Atlanta? It says NO 20 and Atl23 but the spread is 3.5 do that would be NO?
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  7. 11-29-12 07:20 AM #7
    flocko76
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    does this work for totals too? in post #4, are those numbers after the games a ranking of the value of the pick?
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  8. 11-29-12 02:16 PM #8
    The Dream
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    Thanks for sharing. How are you calculating your number with the formula. Are you using Excel or another program. Are you doing all by hand, how are you feeding your data. Are you using a software? Hope this works well. Do use any algorithms? I see you are using it as a weight importance of stat, but how does it feed you your predicted outcome (score of games). And also interested if back tested for totals? Good Luck!
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  9. 11-29-12 05:47 PM #9
    ny92mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigelv View Post
    So for to tonight's game it's picking Atlanta? It says NO 20 and Atl23 but the spread is 3.5 do that would be NO?
    Yes the formula is picking Atlanta to win, but the projected points doesn't have a large margin. I picked NO simply because it appears that it'll be a close game.
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  10. 11-29-12 05:59 PM #10
    AceKingHigh
    Going for the Win!
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    whats the record ATS so far???
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  11. 11-29-12 06:06 PM #11
    ny92mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dream View Post
    Thanks for sharing. How are you calculating your number with the formula. Are you using Excel or another program. Are you doing all by hand, how are you feeding your data. Are you using a software? Hope this works well. Do use any algorithms? I see you are using it as a weight importance of stat, but how does it feed you your predicted outcome (score of games). And also interested if back tested for totals? Good Luck!
    Dream, the formula is nailing it down roughly 73% of the time. Where as the projected score, not so much. It typically will get one of the opponents score within a few points and the other will be too far off to use for betting. Right now I'm using the projected scores as a reference. Typically when both the formula and the score agree on the outcome the percentage increases.

    Yeah....everything is done using excel...I love it. Been using excel to calculate power rankings, player rankings and the likes for years now. Amazingly I'm just now getting around to applying this to betting. Everything for the most part is simply math, with the exception of calculating the correlations.

    To get the projected score of each game. The formula places each team into a grouping based on their overall ranking. Teams ranked 1 thru 4 are placed in group 1 and 5 thru 8 is put in group 2 and so on. So a team that plays say another team in group 2, excel remembers that and when they play another team within that same grouping, typically the score is close. Now this gets tricky because there isn't typically a lot of data to back the projected score. I have calculated it yet or even looked for it but over the last few weeks I'm seeing that some teams, not all, are very true to their projected score. Basically what I'm saying is that I need to figure out which teams are playing consistent to the formula and which ones aren't.

    There is also some over variables that I'd like to get included into this data with strength of schedule being the major need. I'd also like to assign a filter, actually better yet an option button so that when a key player such as quarterback is out for that game it can remove the current stats for that position and replace it with the average or slightly below average stat.

    Like I said, its still in the conversion phase so I'll update you guys as I make changes. I'm also open to any suggestions that you all might have.

    Back tested? you referring to the previous weeks outcomes? If so it'll probably have to be a weekend job. The spreadsheet really wasn't set up to easily transfer the data into a understandable format.
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  12. 11-29-12 06:25 PM #12
    ny92mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceKingHigh View Post
    whats the record ATS so far???
    64% I know its not great. Like I said I'm still working out some things with the formula that should be beneficial to increasing this percentage. I'm fighting with the projected scores, for the most part the formula is doing a fairly good job of finding the winner, I really do think I can get this number increased by another 10% but that's probably a couple weekends away.
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  13. 11-29-12 06:31 PM #13
    ny92mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by flocko76 View Post
    does this work for totals too? in post #4, are those numbers after the games a ranking of the value of the pick?
    I wouldn't use this for totals just yet...still working out the details with the projected scores. The numbers after the games is in fact a ranking of the pick to a degree. The number is produced to show the teams with the largest gap between the two teams statistically. So for example, the Broncos has a much better team than KC therefore the number is higher than say, the Rams vs Cards. I hope I answered your question.
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  14. 11-29-12 06:36 PM #14
    boeing power
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    Quote Originally Posted by ny92mike View Post
    64% I know its not great. Like I said I'm still working out some things with the formula that should be beneficial to increasing this percentage. I'm fighting with the projected scores, for the most part the formula is doing a fairly good job of finding the winner, I really do think I can get this number increased by another 10% but that's probably a couple weekends away.
    Haha,

    You're such a rookie.

    You think 64% is not that great .

    If I could hit 64% consistently I could buy an island by next summer.
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  15. 11-29-12 07:00 PM #15
    ny92mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by boeing power View Post
    Haha,

    You're such a rookie.

    You think 64% is not that great .

    If I could hit 64% consistently I could buy an island by next summer.

    haha....rookie for sure....I actually had to look up what ATS meant. Sad to say.

    It's still early so we'll see if that percentage holds out.

    Whats the average or normal percentage?
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  16. 11-29-12 08:41 PM #16
    ny92mike
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    Finally the Saints get on the board.
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  17. 11-29-12 10:15 PM #17
    ny92mike
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    55 yard fg....are you kidding me.

    Coming down to the wire.
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  18. 11-29-12 10:37 PM #18
    ny92mike
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    Well who would of thought Brees would have thrown 5 picks....ouch.
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  19. 12-01-12 01:38 PM #19
    ny92mike
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    Could anyone explain how the point system works in this forum?

    Thanks
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  20. 12-02-12 04:12 PM #20
    ny92mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayLA View Post
    Do you have prior weeks' predictions to see how it's working?
    JayLA,

    Had a little time over the weekend, so here is my finding from the last 7 weeks in order (hoping it displays correctly).


    Grouped Avg. PPG is what I use if available as it shows the average of what the teams have scored in the past against opponents within those groupings.

    Score Var. is the variance from the actual score and the projected score.

    Match up result is the value assigned after comparing the two teams. The positive number is the winner where the higher the positive number shows the statistical gap between the two teams.

    Outcome shows a win or loss depending on if the formula was right or wrong.

    October 4, 2012 / 20:20 Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Score VAR. Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home St.LouisRams 17 45% 26% -34% 22.5 21.0 21.0 4.0 2 -3.2 Loss
    Away ArizonaCardinals 3 32% 26% 72% 25.5 22.0 #DIV/0! 0 3.2
    October 7, 2012 / 13:00 Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home CincinnatiBengals 13 22% 36% -43% 24.3 30.5 38.0 156.3 1 6.8 Loss
    Away MiamiDolphins 17 0% 18% -30% 18.9 20.5 #DIV/0! 0 -6.8
    October 7, 2012 / 13:00 Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home IndianapolisColts 30 30% 23% -57% 22.5 21.0 23.0 12.3 1 -10.2 Loss
    Away GreenBayPackers 27 0% 0% 12% 30.8 22.5 28.0 0.3 1 10.2
    October 7, 2012 / 13:00 Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home KansasCityChiefs 6 0% 0% -123% 20.1 22.0 #DIV/0! 0 -21.6 Win
    Away BaltimoreRavens 9 0% 54% 48% 27.4 27.0 #DIV/0! 0 21.6
    October 7, 2012 / 13:00 Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewYorkGiants 41 22% 0% 28% 26.4 26.5 41.0 0.0 1 24.0 Win
    Away ClevelandBrowns 27 0% 0% -49% 22.0 16.0 #DIV/0! 0 -24.0
    October 7, 2012 / 13:00 Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home PittsburghSteelers 16 30% 0% 3% 22.5 27.0 #DIV/0! 0 4.4 Win
    Away PhiladelphiaEagles 14 32% 34% -37% 21.5 18.0 6.0 16.0 1 -4.4
    October 7, 2012 / 13:00 Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Redskins Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home WashingtonRedskins 17 0% 36% -6% 19.8 29.5 #DIV/0! 0 -2.3 Win
    Away AtlantaFalcons 24 64% 18% 86% 22.0 28.5 27.0 2.3 1 2.3
    October 7, 2012 / 16:05 Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home CarolinaPanthers 12 22% 18% -79% 22.5 19.0 #DIV/0! 0 0.8 Loss
    Away SeattleSeahawks 16 0% 36% 14% 25.5 15.0 13.5 1.6 2 -0.8
    October 7, 2012 / 16:05 Chicago Bears @ Jacksonville Jaguars Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home JacksonvilleJaguars 3 0% 0% -91% 22.5 16.0 7.0 4.0 1 -41.1 Win
    Away ChicagoBears 41 32% 17% 43% 30.8 28.5 #DIV/0! 0 41.1
    October 7, 2012 / 16:25 Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home MinnesotaVikings 30 45% 17% 23% 31.2 22.0 26.0 4.0 1 19.6 Win
    Away TennesseeTitans 7 0% 17% -121% 24.9 13.5 #DIV/0! 0 -19.6
    October 7, 2012 / 16:25 Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewEnglandPatriots 31 0% 36% 86% 20.1 32.0 #DIV/0! 0 17.4 Win
    Away DenverBroncos 21 0% 36% 68% 18.5 28.0 23.0 1.0 2 -17.4
    October 7, 2012 / 16:25 Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SanFrancisco49ers 45 22% 17% 80% 22.5 28.5 34.0 30.3 1 8.9 Win
    Away BuffaloBills 3 32% 0% -55% 18.9 28.0 #DIV/0! 0 -8.9
    October 7, 2012 / 20:20 San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewOrleansSaints 31 0% 0% -33% 21.9 27.0 32.0 0.3 1 -14.3 Loss
    Away SanDiegoChargers 24 64% 0% -1% 25.5 29.5 #DIV/0! 0 14.3
    October 8, 2012 / 20:30 Houston Texans @ New York Jets Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewYorkJets 17 22% 36% -60% 19.8 16.5 #DIV/0! 0 -41.1 Win
    Away HoustonTexans 23 64% 72% 100% 27.4 30.5 #DIV/0! 0 41.1
    October 11, 2012 / 20:20 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home TennesseeTitans 26 23% 0% -94% 26.4 13.0 44.0 81.0 1 -24.5 Loss
    Away PittsburghSteelers 23 0% 18% -7% 31.7 23.0 31.0 16.0 1 24.5
    October 14, 2012 / 13:00 Oakland Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home AtlantaFalcons 23 46% 48% 55% 30.5 27.0 #DIV/0! 0 39.2 Win
    Away OaklandRaiders 20 0% 0% -23% 18.6 13.5 #DIV/0! 0 -39.2
    October 14, 2012 / 13:00 Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home BaltimoreRavens 31 69% 0% 29% 26.4 23.0 #DIV/0! 0 19.2 Win
    Away DallasCowboys 29 29% 0% -23% 19.4 17.0 #DIV/0! 0 -19.2
    October 14, 2012 / 13:00 Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ClevelandBrowns 34 0% 0% -44% 21.0 16.0 16.0 81.0 1 -19.4 Loss
    Away CincinnatiBengals 24 47% 19% -25% 31.7 27.0 30.5 10.6 2 19.4
    October 14, 2012 / 13:00 St. Louis Rams @ Miami Dolphins Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home MiamiDolphins 17 23% 0% -10% 21.7 20.0 17.0 0.0 1 7.4 Win
    Away St.LouisRams 14 0% 0% 6% 19.4 19.0 #DIV/0! 0 -7.4
    October 14, 2012 / 13:00 Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewYorkJets 35 23% 28% -31% 26.4 17.0 48.0 42.3 1 -7.6 Loss
    Away IndianapolisColts 9 0% 0% -27% 26.9 22.0 17.0 16.0 1 7.6
    October 14, 2012 / 13:00 Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home PhiladelphiaEagles 23 46% 14% -20% 26.4 17.0 14.0 20.3 1 -11.7 Win
    Away DetroitLions 26 0% 18% -20% 23.1 23.0 #DIV/0! 0 11.7
    October 14, 2012 / 13:00 Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home TampaBayBuccaneers 38 29% 0% -12% 25.8 19.0 16.0 121.0 1 1.4 Win
    Away KansasCityChiefs 10 24% 16% -53% 26.9 20.0 #DIV/0! 0 -1.4
    October 14, 2012 / 16:05 Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ArizonaCardinals 16 69% 32% 28% 26.4 20.0 3.0 42.3 1 0.5 Loss
    Away BuffaloBills 19 24% 0% -84% 23.4 28.0 #DIV/0! 0 -0.5
    October 14, 2012 / 16:05 New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SeattleSeahawks 24 46% 0% 11% 18.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 1 -34.5 Loss
    Away NewEnglandPatriots 23 47% 0% 52% 23.1 31.0 #DIV/0! 0 34.5
    October 14, 2012 / 16:25 New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SanFrancisco49ers 3 46% 28% 100% 17.3 30.0 13.0 25.0 1 7.7 Loss
    Away NewYorkGiants 26 24% 28% 45% 18.4 36.0 #DIV/0! 0 -7.7
    October 14, 2012 / 16:25 Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home WashingtonRedskins 38 0% 28% -9% 26.4 28.0 17.0 110.3 1 0.8 Win
    Away MinnesotaVikings 26 24% 28% 45% 23.8 24.0 20.0 9.0 1 -0.8
    October 14, 2012 / 20:20 Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home HoustonTexans 24 46% 0% 58% 26.4 30.0 23.0 0.3 1 30.4 Loss
    Away GreenBayPackers 42 0% 0% 3% 18.4 23.0 #DIV/0! 0 -30.4
    October 15, 2012 / 20:30 Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SanDiegoChargers 24 23% 38% -9% 21.0 24.0 #DIV/0! 0 4.7 Loss
    Away DenverBroncos 35 0% 19% 24% 18.6 25.0 21.0 49.0 1 -4.7
    October 18, 2012 / 20:20 Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SanFrancisco49ers 13 35% 0% 100% 21.2 28.5 #DIV/0! 0 16.9 Win
    Away SeattleSeahawks 6 23% 0% 16% 18.6 16.0 #DIV/0! 0 -16.9
    October 21, 2012 / 13:00 Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home BuffaloBills 34 17% 27% -141% 30.0 26.0 29.5 5.1 2 12.0 Loss
    Away TennesseeTitans 35 0% 13% -146% 25.4 13.5 #DIV/0! 0 -12.0
    October 21, 2012 / 13:00 Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home CarolinaPanthers 14 21% 16% -21% 21.2 12.0 22.5 18.1 2 -2.5 Win
    Away DallasCowboys 19 27% 32% -43% 25.3 18.0 #DIV/0! 0 2.5
    October 21, 2012 / 13:00 Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home HoustonTexans 43 35% 67% 33% 22.7 28.5 24.0 90.3 1 14.3 Win
    Away BaltimoreRavens 13 23% 53% 33% 21.4 27.0 #DIV/0! 0 -14.3
    October 21, 2012 / 13:00 Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home IndianapolisColts 17 42% 0% -79% 26.4 21.0 #DIV/0! 0 -6.5 Loss
    Away ClevelandBrowns 13 0% 13% -27% 30.9 21.5 #DIV/0! 0 6.5
    October 21, 2012 / 13:00 Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home MinnesotaVikings 21 52% 27% 11% 21.2 25.0 20.0 0.3 1 17.3 Win
    Away ArizonaCardinals 14 23% 27% 34% 18.6 20.0 20.0 9.0 1 -17.3
    October 21, 2012 / 13:00 Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewYorkGiants 27 35% 0% 95% 19.4 31.0 #DIV/0! 0 6.1 Win
    Away WashingtonRedskins 23 46% 0% 17% 21.4 29.5 17.0 9.0 1 -6.1
    October 21, 2012 / 13:00 Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home St.LouisRams 20 52% 40% 1% 22.7 18.0 #DIV/0! 0 -10.5 Win
    Away GreenBayPackers 30 23% 27% 42% 22.3 25.0 12.0 81.0 1 10.5
    October 21, 2012 / 13:00 New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home TampaBayBuccaneers 28 42% 13% 22% 21.2 22.0 #DIV/0! 0 5.3 Loss
    Away NewOrleansSaints 35 0% 0% -16% 22.3 27.0 #DIV/0! 0 -5.3
    October 21, 2012 / 16:25 New York Jets @ New England Patriots Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewEnglandPatriots 29 17% 10% 70% 21.2 30.5 #DIV/0! 0 36.1 Win
    Away NewYorkJets 26 23% 21% -23% 21.4 20.0 32.5 10.6 2 -36.1
    October 21, 2012 / 16:25 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home OaklandRaiders 26 21% 16% -57% 30.0 14.0 #DIV/0! 0 17.7 Win
    Away JacksonvilleJaguars 23 27% 16% -100% 25.3 10.0 #DIV/0! 0 -17.7
    October 21, 2012 / 20:20 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home CincinnatiBengals 17 17% 10% -47% 21.2 25.5 25.5 18.1 2 -0.3 Win
    Away PittsburghSteelers 24 0% 0% -14% 22.5 23.0 21.5 1.6 2 0.3
    October 22, 2012 / 20:30 Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ChicagoBears 13 42% 0% 79% 22.7 34.0 #DIV/0! 0 23.4 Win
    Away DetroitLions 7 27% 0% -13% 21.4 26.0 #DIV/0! 0 -23.4
    October 25, 2012 / 20:20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home MinnesotaVikings 17 78% 34% 43% 24.8 24.0 26.0 20.3 1 3.8 Loss
    Away TampaBayBuccaneers 36 0% 13% 10% 18.7 25.0 #DIV/0! 0 -3.8
    October 28, 2012 / 13:00 Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ChicagoBears 23 68% 40% 71% 28.4 28.5 #DIV/0! 0 38.0 Win
    Away CarolinaPanthers 22 0% 13% -24% 20.7 13.0 #DIV/0! 0 -38.0
    October 28, 2012 / 13:00 San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ClevelandBrowns 7 19% 11% -28% 24.8 16.0 34.0 182.3 1 -17.5 Loss
    Away SanDiegoChargers 6 44% 40% -26% 24.4 24.0 23.0 72.3 2 17.5
    October 28, 2012 / 13:00 Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home DetroitLions 28 23% 27% -20% 21.7 22.5 27.0 0.3 1 3.7 Win
    Away SeattleSeahawks 24 19% 34% 2% 23.7 16.0 #DIV/0! 0 -3.7
    October 28, 2012 / 13:00 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home GreenBayPackers 24 39% 12% 41% 28.4 27.0 #DIV/0! 0 38.1 Win
    Away JacksonvilleJaguars 15 22% 0% -117% 18.8 16.0 3.0 36.0 1 -38.1
    October 28, 2012 / 13:00 Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewYorkJets 9 39% 23% 12% 24.8 23.0 26.0 72.3 1 -5.3 Win
    Away MiamiDolphins 30 22% 0% -8% 24.6 18.5 17.0 42.3 1 5.3
    October 28, 2012 / 13:00 Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home PhiladelphiaEagles 17 45% 13% -13% 19.0 18.0 #DIV/0! 0 -21.4 Win
    Away AtlantaFalcons 30 65% 27% 63% 24.6 27.0 30.0 0.0 1 21.4
    October 28, 2012 / 13:00 Washington Redskins @ Pittsburgh Steelers Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home PittsburghSteelers 27 45% 14% -12% 19.0 23.5 #DIV/0! 0 -10.7 Loss
    Away WashingtonRedskins 12 37% 0% 11% 18.7 28.0 #DIV/0! 0 10.7
    October 28, 2012 / 13:00 New England Patriots @ St. Louis Rams Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home St.LouisRams 7 58% 0% -10% 24.8 19.0 #DIV/0! 0 -30.7 Win
    Away NewEnglandPatriots 45 37% 0% 62% 23.3 30.0 26.5 85.6 2 30.7
    October 28, 2012 / 13:00 Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home TennesseeTitans 13 39% 0% -83% 26.4 14.0 #DIV/0! 0 -3.5 Win
    Away IndianapolisColts 19 0% 0% -43% 30.3 19.0 17.0 1.0 1 3.5
    October 28, 2012 / 16:05 Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home KansasCityChiefs 16 0% 0% -97% 26.4 18.5 #DIV/0! 0 -4.0 Win
    Away OaklandRaiders 26 0% 0% -27% 30.3 17.0 #DIV/0! 0 4.0
    October 28, 2012 / 16:25 New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home DallasCowboys 24 23% 13% -15% 24.8 18.5 18.0 9.0 1 -28.3 Win
    Away NewYorkGiants 29 37% 11% 58% 24.6 27.0 29.0 0.0 2 28.3
    October 28, 2012 / 20:20 New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home DenverBroncos 34 45% 0% 26% 21.7 28.0 #DIV/0! 0 7.4 Win
    Away NewOrleansSaints 14 22% 14% -4% 18.7 29.0 31.0 72.3 1 -7.4
    October 29, 2012 / 20:30 San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ArizonaCardinals 3 58% 11% 17% 19.0 20.0 14.0 30.3 1 -23.4 Win
    Away SanFrancisco49ers 24 37% 11% 100% 24.4 27.0 #DIV/0! 0 23.4
    November 1, 2012 / 20:20 Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SanDiegoChargers 31 20% 39% -19% 27.6 24.0 22.5 18.1 4 21.4 Win
    Away KansasCityChiefs 13 18% 0% -63% 23.5 17.0 #DIV/0! 0 -21.4
    November 4, 2012 / 13:00 Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home CincinnatiBengals 23 20% 26% -14% 18.7 24.0 #DIV/0! 0 -17.0 Win
    Away DenverBroncos 31 18% 39% 16% 23.5 31.0 33.0 1.0 2 17.0
    November 4, 2012 / 13:00 Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ClevelandBrowns 15 34% 17% -21% 27.6 16.0 27.0 36.0 1 -13.3 Win
    Away BaltimoreRavens 25 18% 39% -17% 28.6 23.0 16.0 20.3 2 13.3
    November 4, 2012 / 13:00 Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home GreenBayPackers 31 52% 34% 41% 24.6 25.5 27.5 3.1 2 24.2 Win
    Away ArizonaCardinals 17 16% 23% -23% 17.9 18.0 20.0 2.3 1 -24.2
    November 4, 2012 / 13:00 Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home HoustonTexans 21 59% 77% 76% 23.8 30.0 #DIV/0! 0 41.6 Win
    Away BuffaloBills 9 36% 26% -86% 20.7 28.0 #DIV/0! 0 -41.6
    November 4, 2012 / 13:00 Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home IndianapolisColts 23 59% 26% -34% 27.6 19.0 #DIV/0! 0 -13.0 Loss
    Away MiamiDolphins 20 36% 39% 2% 24.7 20.0 21.0 0.3 1 13.0
    November 4, 2012 / 13:00 Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home JacksonvilleJaguars 14 0% 0% -64% 23.9 15.0 10.0 4.0 1 -30.4 Win
    Away DetroitLions 31 18% 0% -8% 28.6 26.0 41.0 25.0 1 30.4
    November 4, 2012 / 13:00 Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home TennesseeTitans 20 34% 13% -75% 19.6 13.5 20.7 0.1 3 -37.6 Win
    Away ChicagoBears 51 36% 30% 55% 28.6 23.0 41.0 25.0 1 37.6
    November 4, 2012 / 13:00 Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home WashingtonRedskins 13 17% 34% -3% 27.6 26.0 26.0 42.3 2 18.1 Loss
    Away CarolinaPanthers 21 0% 13% -21% 19.0 14.0 10.0 30.3 1 -18.1
    November 4, 2012 / 16:05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Oakland Raiders Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home OaklandRaiders 32 39% 0% -24% 22.6 20.0 34.0 1.0 1 -16.3 Win
    Away TampaBayBuccaneers 42 18% 15% 20% 23.1 28.0 10.0 256.0 1 16.3
    November 4, 2012 / 16:05 Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SeattleSeahawks 30 52% 34% 5% 23.9 16.0 #DIV/0! 0 -7.0 Loss
    Away MinnesotaVikings 20 16% 34% 17% 23.1 22.5 #DIV/0! 0 7.0
    November 4, 2012 / 16:25 Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Giants Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewYorkGiants 20 52% 13% 60% 27.6 28.0 31.3 32.1 3 16.4 Loss
    Away PittsburghSteelers 24 18% 30% -9% 20.7 24.0 #DIV/0! 0 -16.4
    November 4, 2012 / 20:20 Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home AtlantaFalcons 19 59% 39% 53% 22.3 27.0 23.0 4.0 1 22.2 Win
    Away DallasCowboys 13 36% 39% -10% 17.9 19.0 21.0 16.0 2 -22.2
    November 5, 2012 / 20:30 Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewOrleansSaints 28 20% 13% -24% 24.6 27.0 14.0 49.0 1 4.2 Win
    Away PhiladelphiaEagles 13 18% 13% -36% 24.7 17.0 6.0 12.3 1 -4.2
    November 8, 2012 / 20:20 Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home JacksonvilleJaguars 10 0% 12% -78% 22.6 14.5 #DIV/0! 0 -33.2 Win
    Away IndianapolisColts 27 35% 24% -27% 28.9 20.0 18.0 20.3 2 33.2
    November 11, 2012 / 13:00 Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home BaltimoreRavens 55 87% 57% -13% 23.6 24.0 #DIV/0! 0 12.5 Win
    Away OaklandRaiders 20 19% 34% -57% 24.0 23.0 #DIV/0! 0 -12.5
    November 11, 2012 / 13:00 Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home CarolinaPanthers 14 22% 0% -22% 22.6 17.5 14.5 0.1 2 -24.2 Win
    Away DenverBroncos 36 39% 15% 34% 24.4 31.0 #DIV/0! 0 24.2
    November 11, 2012 / 13:00 New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home CincinnatiBengals 31 22% 15% -16% 18.8 23.5 23.0 16.0 1 -24.6 Loss
    Away NewYorkGiants 13 52% 13% 57% 24.0 27.0 23.0 25.0 2 24.6
    November 11, 2012 / 13:00 Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home MiamiDolphins 3 43% 34% 5% 27.5 20.0 #DIV/0! 0 22.2 Loss
    Away TennesseeTitans 37 17% 20% -115% 18.1 14.0 13.0 144.0 1 -22.2
    November 11, 2012 / 13:00 Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home MinnesotaVikings 34 77% 12% 4% 22.6 21.0 17.0 72.3 1 -8.4 Loss
    Away DetroitLions 24 39% 0% 0% 22.1 26.5 #DIV/0! 0 8.4
    November 11, 2012 / 13:00 Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewEnglandPatriots 37 43% 27% 70% 25.2 30.5 29.0 16.0 1 48.5 Win
    Away BuffaloBills 31 39% 0% -96% 19.8 26.0 9.0 121.0 1 -48.5
    November 11, 2012 / 13:00 Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewOrleansSaints 31 43% 14% -12% 19.3 27.5 #DIV/0! 0 -23.1 Loss
    Away AtlantaFalcons 27 78% 14% 54% 24.4 27.0 30.0 2.3 1 23.1
    November 11, 2012 / 13:00 San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home TampaBayBuccaneers 34 43% 30% 23% 22.6 31.0 #DIV/0! 0 9.9 Win
    Away SanDiegoChargers 24 39% 0% -10% 18.1 24.0 #DIV/0! 0 -9.9
    November 11, 2012 / 16:05 New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SeattleSeahawks 28 77% 13% 18% 25.2 16.0 #DIV/0! 0 9.7 Win
    Away NewYorkJets 7 19% 0% -13% 22.1 20.0 #DIV/0! 0 -9.7
    November 11, 2012 / 16:25 Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home PhiladelphiaEagles 23 43% 14% -52% 24.0 17.0 24.0 0.3 1 -5.6 Win
    Away DallasCowboys 38 39% 14% -34% 26.1 18.5 #DIV/0! 0 5.6
    November 11, 2012 / 16:25 St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SanFrancisco49ers 24 65% 27% 100% 22.6 25.5 30.0 9.0 1 29.5 Loss
    Away St.LouisRams 24 0% 27% -19% 19.1 18.0 19.0 6.3 1 -29.5
    November 11, 2012 / 20:20 Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ChicagoBears 6 87% 45% 54% 19.3 28.5 #DIV/0! 0 -1.3 Win
    Away HoustonTexans 13 58% 0% 89% 19.8 28.5 21.0 16.0 1 1.3
    November 12, 2012 / 20:30 Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home PittsburghSteelers 16 65% 23% 10% 27.5 24.0 27.0 30.3 2 32.6 Win
    Away KansasCityChiefs 13 19% 0% -85% 18.1 16.5 12.0 0.3 3 -32.6
    November 15, 2012 / 20:20 Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home BuffaloBills 19 17% 0% -93% 23.1 28.0 #DIV/0! 0 -4.5 Loss
    Away MiamiDolphins 14 37% 13% -11% 25.1 20.0 17.0 2.3 1 4.5
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home AtlantaFalcons 23 68% 47% 51% 26.4 27.0 27.0 4.0 1 36.2 Win
    Away ArizonaCardinals 19 18% 23% -36% 19.1 17.0 18.5 0.1 2 -36.2
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home CarolinaPanthers 21 17% 13% -27% 23.1 14.0 22.0 0.3 1 -26.1 Win
    Away TampaBayBuccaneers 27 37% 13% 23% 25.1 34.0 16.0 30.3 1 26.1
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home DallasCowboys 23 17% 0% -12% 26.4 19.0 #DIV/0! 0 14.2 Win
    Away ClevelandBrowns 20 0% 0% -24% 23.6 16.0 23.5 3.1 2 -14.2
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home DetroitLions 20 34% 0% -5% 19.0 26.0 15.5 5.1 2 -6.5 Win
    Away GreenBayPackers 24 37% 13% 43% 20.1 27.0 22.0 1.0 1 6.5
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home HoustonTexans 43 68% 26% 76% 23.1 27.0 #DIV/0! 0 61.9 Win
    Away JacksonvilleJaguars 37 18% 13% -81% 20.0 14.0 7.0 225.0 1 -61.9
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home KansasCityChiefs 6 0% 0% -104% 23.3 16.0 16.5 27.6 2 -25.2 Win
    Away CincinnatiBengals 28 37% 23% -24% 26.9 24.0 28.3 0.0 3 25.2
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewEnglandPatriots 59 51% 58% 49% 23.1 31.0 #DIV/0! 0 34.5 Win
    Away IndianapolisColts 24 37% 47% -16% 20.0 21.0 21.0 2.3 1 -34.5
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 New York Jets @ St. Louis Rams Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home St.LouisRams 13 51% 0% -34% 23.1 19.0 #DIV/0! 0 5.6 Loss
    Away NewYorkJets 27 18% 0% -35% 25.1 17.0 #DIV/0! 0 -5.6
    November 18, 2012 / 13:00 Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home WashingtonRedskins 31 17% 0% -21% 26.0 24.0 #DIV/0! 0 18.4 Win
    Away PhiladelphiaEagles 6 18% 13% -49% 23.6 17.0 23.0 72.3 2 -18.4
    November 18, 2012 / 16:05 New Orleans Saints @ Oakland Raiders Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home OaklandRaiders 17 34% 0% -91% 24.6 20.0 #DIV/0! 0 -11.9 Win
    Away NewOrleansSaints 38 18% 16% -5% 27.0 28.0 24.0 49.0 1 11.9
    November 18, 2012 / 16:25 San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home DenverBroncos 30 51% 26% 38% 23.1 31.0 #DIV/0! 0 15.0 Win
    Away SanDiegoChargers 23 37% 39% -35% 20.0 24.0 3.0 100.0 1 -15.0
    November 18, 2012 / 20:20 Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home PittsburghSteelers 10 68% 13% -1% 21.7 24.0 #DIV/0! 0 -1.0 Win
    Away BaltimoreRavens 13 37% 39% -10% 20.1 25.0 31.0 81.0 1 1.0
    November 19, 2012 / 20:30 Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SanFrancisco49ers 32 51% 47% 100% 20.0 24.0 24.0 16.0 1 -8.6 Loss
    Away ChicagoBears 7 55% 47% 52% 19.1 23.0 10.0 2.3 1 8.6
    November 22, 2012 / 12:30 Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home DetroitLions 31 36% 16% -21% 19.9 25.0 #DIV/0! 0 -25.5 Win
    Away HoustonTexans 34 81% 16% 100% 20.0 28.5 43.0 20.3 1 25.5
    November 22, 2012 / 16:15 Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home DallasCowboys 31 36% 26% -18% 22.9 21.0 38.0 12.3 1 -9.8 Win
    Away WashingtonRedskins 38 40% 13% 6% 22.9 26.0 35.5 1.6 2 9.8
    November 22, 2012 / 20:20 New England Patriots @ New York Jets Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewYorkJets 19 36% 26% -52% 19.9 20.0 8.5 27.6 2 -51.1 Win
    Away NewEnglandPatriots 49 61% 39% 53% 24.3 32.5 52.0 2.3 1 51.1
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ChicagoBears 28 72% 13% 41% 22.9 23.0 #DIV/0! 0 15.2 Win
    Away MinnesotaVikings 10 20% 26% 16% 19.2 22.5 #DIV/0! 0 -15.2
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home CincinnatiBengals 34 36% 33% -14% 26.3 25.5 29.7 4.7 3 20.5 Win
    Away OaklandRaiders 10 20% 33% -88% 22.3 20.0 34.0 144.0 1 -20.5
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ClevelandBrowns 20 36% 13% -27% 19.9 16.0 15.5 5.1 2 -19.3 Loss
    Away PittsburghSteelers 14 40% 13% -5% 27.4 23.5 23.3 21.8 3 19.3
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home IndianapolisColts 20 72% 44% -58% 23.4 22.0 23.0 2.3 1 2.4 Win
    Away BuffaloBills 13 40% 33% -58% 22.9 26.0 19.0 9.0 1 -2.4
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home JacksonvilleJaguars 24 0% 13% -72% 26.3 14.5 22.0 1.0 1 -17.5 Loss
    Away TennesseeTitans 19 40% 0% -113% 27.6 17.0 #DIV/0! 0 17.5
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home KansasCityChiefs 9 0% 0% -109% 19.9 14.5 17.0 16.0 1 -53.6 Win
    Away DenverBroncos 17 61% 39% 59% 27.6 31.0 35.5 85.6 2 53.6
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins Actual Score Field Adv. Non-Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home MiamiDolphins 24 36% 16% -28% 22.9 18.5 30.0 9.0 1 -11.1 Loss
    Away SeattleSeahawks 21 20% 31% 42% 24.3 20.0 15.0 9.0 2 11.1
    November 25, 2012 / 13:00 Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home TampaBayBuccaneers 23 54% 26% 23% 19.8 31.0 35.0 36.0 2 -3.8 Win
    Away AtlantaFalcons 24 81% 13% 41% 19.2 27.0 #DIV/0! 0 3.8
    November 25, 2012 / 16:05 Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home SanDiegoChargers 13 36% 44% -19% 19.9 24.0 #DIV/0! 0 -8.5 Win
    Away BaltimoreRavens 16 61% 76% -1% 22.9 24.0 37.5 115.6 2 8.5
    November 25, 2012 / 16:25 St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals Actual Score Field Adv. Div SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home ArizonaCardinals 17 54% 13% -35% 26.3 18.0 #DIV/0! 0 -3.6 Win
    Away St.LouisRams 31 0% 26% -37% 27.6 18.0 #DIV/0! 0 3.6
    November 25, 2012 / 16:25 San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewOrleansSaints 21 54% 33% 6% 19.9 29.5 #DIV/0! 0 -17.1 Win
    Away SanFrancisco49ers 31 61% 55% 96% 22.9 25.5 27.0 4.0 1 17.1
    November 25, 2012 / 20:20 Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home NewYorkGiants 38 54% 55% 47% 19.8 26.5 41.0 2.3 1 3.2 Win
    Away GreenBayPackers 10 61% 55% 41% 20.0 25.5 23.0 42.3 2 -3.2
    November 26, 2012 / 20:30 Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles Actual Score Field Adv. Conf SoS League Median PPG Team Median PPG Grouped Avg. PPG Grouped games played Projected Score Match Up Result Outcome
    Home PhiladelphiaEagles 22 36% 11% -75% 19.9 17.0 #DIV/0! 0 -9.3 Win
    Away CarolinaPanthers 30 20% 22% -27% 27.6 17.5 35.0 6.3 1 9.3
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  21. 12-02-12 04:18 PM #21
    ny92mike
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    I've broken it down by each team to show the formulas success rate based on the variance of actual and projected score as well as the match up result. I actually like the look of these as it shows a trend in which teams are playing within the formulas results such as Dallas, Oakland, Philly, etc. to the ones that aren't Cle, Miami, Sea. I think this could be useful in betting.

    As always thoughts, comments, B&C welcome.

    Team Score Var. Win ratio Loss Ratio Win Percentage
    ArizonaCardinals 16.8 5 2 71.43%
    AtlantaFalcons 2.5 6 1 85.71%
    BaltimoreRavens 72.3 7 0 100.00%
    BuffaloBills 45.0 4 3 57.14%
    CarolinaPanthers 11.0 5 2 71.43%
    ChicagoBears 13.6 6 1 85.71%
    CincinnatiBengals 34.3 4 3 57.14%
    ClevelandBrowns 61.5 3 4 42.86%
    DallasCowboys 12.4 7 0 100.00%
    DenverBroncos 34.1 6 1 85.71%
    DetroitLions 10.1 6 1 85.71%
    GreenBayPackers 25.5 5 2 71.43%
    HoustonTexans 31.7 6 1 85.71%
    IndianapolisColts 9.0 4 4 57.14%
    JacksonvilleJaguars 54.0 6 1 85.71%
    KansasCityChiefs 14.6 7 0 100.00%
    MiamiDolphins 10.8 2 5 28.57%
    MinnesotaVikings 21.2 4 3 57.14%
    NewEnglandPatriots 34.6 6 1 85.71%
    NewOrleansSaints 42.6 4 3 57.14%
    NewYorkGiants 11.9 4 3 57.14%
    NewYorkJets 38.2 5 2 71.43%
    OaklandRaiders 72.5 7 0 100.00%
    PhiladelphiaEagles 24.2 7 0 100.00%
    PittsburghSteelers 17.4 4 4 57.14%
    SanDiegoChargers 63.4 4 3 57.14%
    SanFrancisco49ers 16.9 4 3 57.14%
    SeattleSeahawks 8.9 3 4 42.86%
    St.LouisRams 5.1 4 3 57.14%
    TampaBayBuccaneers 110.8 5 2 71.43%
    TennesseeTitans 75.0 3 4 42.86%
    WashingtonRedskins 40.8 5 2 71.43%
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  22. 12-05-12 10:17 PM #22
    ny92mike
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    Here is this weeks projections.

    Thanks

    Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank Projected Score Spread Projected Winner
    Home OaklandRaiders 3 - 9 30% 12% -72% Group 8 7 10 -52.7
    Away DenverBroncos 9 - 3 59% 49% 54% Group 1 39 -10 52.7
    Record Field Correlation Non-Conf SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home BuffaloBills 5 - 7 45% 14% -37% Group 5 22 -3 6.4
    Away St.LouisRams 5 - 6 15% 0% -4% Group 6 19 3 -6.4
    Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home CarolinaPanthers 3 - 9 15% 12% -28% Group 6 14 3.5 -24.4
    Away AtlantaFalcons 11 - 1 74% 37% 49% Group 2 26 -3.5 24.4
    Record Field Correlation Non-Conf SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home CincinnatiBengals 7 - 5 45% 28% 1% Group 2 27 -3 14.2
    Away DallasCowboys 6 - 6 45% 14% 8% Group 4 19 3 -14.2
    Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home ClevelandBrowns 4 - 8 45% 40% -18% Group 7 21 -6.5 19.6
    Away KansasCityChiefs 2 - 10 15% 0% -79% Group 8 11 6.5 -19.6
    Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home IndianapolisColts 8 - 4 75% 25% -9% Group 5 18 -5.5 16.6
    Away TennesseeTitans 4 - 8 30% 0% -88% Group 7 11 5.5 -16.6
    Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home JacksonvilleJaguars 2 - 10 15% 20% -93% Group 8 11 2.5 -18.1
    Away NewYorkJets 5 - 7 30% 30% -48% Group 7 22 -2.5 18.1
    Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home MinnesotaVikings 6 - 6 75% 25% 9% Group 5 10 3 -23.1
    Away ChicagoBears 8 - 4 45% 25% 67% Group 2 26 -3 23.1
    Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home PittsburghSteelers 7 - 5 60% 40% -3% Group 4 22 6.8
    Away SanDiegoChargers 4 - 8 30% 40% -12% Group 5 20 -6.8
    Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home TampaBayBuccaneers 6 - 6 45% 30% 57% Group 3 38 -7.5 31.2
    Away PhiladelphiaEagles 3 - 9 15% 10% -54% Group 7 19 7.5 -31.2
    Record Field Correlation Non-Conf SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home WashingtonRedskins 6 - 6 45% 0% -9% Group 4 24 -2.5 1.2
    Away BaltimoreRavens 9 - 3 59% 14% 16% Group 3 21 2.5 -1.2
    Record Field Correlation Non-Conf SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home SanFrancisco49ers 8 - 3 60% 28% 100% Group 1 27 -10 35.1
    Away MiamiDolphins 5 - 7 30% 28% -13% Group 6 10 10 -35.1
    Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home NewYorkGiants 7 - 5 60% 59% 10% Group 2 35 -4.5 22.3
    Away NewOrleansSaints 5 - 7 30% 30% 7% Group 6 21 4.5 -22.3
    Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home SeattleSeahawks 7 - 5 75% 0% 39% Group 4 20 -10 23.7
    Away ArizonaCardinals 4 - 8 15% 12% -18% Group 8 23 10 -23.7
    Record Field Correlation Div SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home GreenBayPackers 8 - 4 75% 37% 16% Group 3 22 -6.5 2.0
    Away DetroitLions 4 - 8 30% 0% -5% Group 3 22 6.5 -2.0
    Record Field Correlation Conf SoS Group Rank Projected Score Projected Winner
    Home NewEnglandPatriots 9 - 3 60% 79% 70% Group 1 33 -3.5 11.0
    Away HoustonTexans 11 - 1 89% 89% 90% Group 1 30 3.5 -11.0
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  23. 12-06-12 03:01 PM #23
    tailin junkie
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    Am I correct in assuming that these numbers mean that denver is a pretty strong play?
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  24. 12-06-12 04:05 PM #24
    flyboy
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    With the projected score of 39-7 I would say yes.
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  25. 12-06-12 06:48 PM #25
    ny92mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by tailin junkie View Post
    Am I correct in assuming that these numbers mean that denver is a pretty strong play?
    Not sure if you've read through the entire post but the higher number in the "projected winner" is exactly that. Based off my data from this season, the higher that number the better odds of that team winning.
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  26. 12-06-12 06:55 PM #26
    tailin junkie
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    Thanks, so it just highly predicts Denver will win? Nothing to do with covering the -10.5? Or does that 39-7 mean something?
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  27. 12-06-12 06:56 PM #27
    tailin junkie
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    Or more specifically, based on your data, would you wager on Denver -10.5 tonight?
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  28. 12-06-12 07:33 PM #28
    ny92mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by tailin junkie View Post
    Thanks, so it just highly predicts Denver will win? Nothing to do with covering the -10.5? Or does that 39-7 mean something?
    Correct, the data is stating in this case the obvious. Denver is better then Oakland statistically. The projected score is based off the formula in that it projects a score based off the average that denver has scored in the past against teams within oaklands ranking. It also takes into account home field advantage and whether or not its conf, div, or non-conf. What it doesn't account for is injury, flukes, bone headed plays and just pure luck.

    With the "projected winner" column being so high and the projected point spread being this far off...yeah I'm betting on this game.
    Last edited by ny92mike; 12-06-12 at 07:35 PM. Reason: Include last sentence.
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  29. 12-06-12 10:43 PM #29
    ny92mike
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    You end up betting on this one?
    Points Awarded:

    tailin junkie gave ny92mike 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  30. 12-07-12 05:52 AM #30
    tailin junkie
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    Yes I did. Thank you very much for all you do.
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  31. 12-07-12 05:58 AM #31
    crackerjack
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    Denver barely broke a sweat and covered the spread. They could have won by 30...
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  32. 12-07-12 01:58 PM #32
    oddtodd
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    very interesting stuff in this thread. posting to check back later. keep up the actual work, if this is the kind of research you are doing as a beginner who had to look up the meaning of ATS, youll be a betting beast in no time .
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  33. 12-08-12 09:24 AM #33
    ny92mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by oddtodd View Post
    very interesting stuff in this thread. posting to check back later. keep up the actual work, if this is the kind of research you are doing as a beginner who had to look up the meaning of ATS, youll be a betting beast in no time .
    Thanks...I feel pretty good with the projected winner based off the stats, still working with the scoring though. Gotta find a way to refine it, or at the least increase the win percentage ATS. Just so many variables.
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  34. 12-13-12 12:57 PM #34
    The Dream
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    anything for tonights game
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  35. 12-13-12 06:25 PM #35
    ny92mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dream View Post
    anything for tonights game
    Give me 30 minutes...Putting in the numbers now.
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