[realitybias]

I am on a hot streak, +20 units from two weeks ago. I had a very successful day handicapping the NCAA yesterday. I wanted to make sure that as long as I'm winning, I am sharing my picks with others. With no further adieu, here are my plays of the day:

New Orleans Saints PK - 2 units
This may seem like a hard game to handicap at first. By all means, it is. There are some reasons, however, why I am going with the saints strongly, and its not just because I am a fan. I told myself I would stay out of this game unless I see a clear trend, and I do. My first method of handicapping shows the Saints winning by 2 points (24.5 to 22.5). That was not clear enough for me. However, my second look showed that the Saints have a major advantage in an area that is Atlanta's greatest weakness - the Pass defense on the road. Atlanta gives up a whopping 65% completion percentage at home, while its opponents only average 60%. Brees is throwint at 72% right now. This is a perfect storm for Drew Brees to absolutely light Atlanta up. Go with the saints here.


Cincinnati +4.5
My handicapping system put me at Cincinnatti -2 when I first worked the numbers, and that doesnt even include the fact that Cincinnati is playing at home! I forgot to adjust for that, and I still have Cincinnati favored to win this game. I'm taking the points because I don't have them favored by too terribly much, but there is a lot of value at +4.5. The Cincinatti defense is excellent against the run, especially at home, giving up only 3 yards per carry. This will force Pittsburgh to air out the ball. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh is averaging too many turnovers for this to be effective. Cincinatti wins in a squeeker.

Jacksonville -3
My system has Jacksonville winning by a full touchdown. Play this one as hard as possible. The colts may be the worst thing since unsliced bread. Seriously... the colts are giving up an average of 71% completions when their opponents are only averaging 58%. They are giving up 15 more points per opponent than what their opponents average. They turn the ball over. Jacksonville has a decent defense. This could get ugly fast for the Colts.

Buffalo ML against Dallas SUPER confident AND Buffalo/Dallas UNDER
Whenever I handicap a team, and I come up with Buffalo -7, and then see that Vegas is giving them points, I am all over it. I like to play one or two moneylines a week, and this is going to absolutely be one of them. Buffalo is scoring 6 points more than what their opponents typically allow. Dallas is scoring 1 point less than what their opponents typically allow. I have the final score of this game as 25-17 for purposes of handicapping. Probably would be 24-17 for a more realistic score but still. Dallas is NOT a good team folks! I am also sticking with the under here, based off of that same score. I have higher confidence in the moneyline than I do in the over/under.

Houston -3 at the bucs SUPER confident
SUPER confident in this game. The bucs are scoring 4 points less than what their opponents typically allow. Houston is scoring 7 points more. Houston is also very good on the road and tampa is not as good at home as you would like them to be against the pass. This is a huge play, I have the spread at -10 for Houston. I am ALL over this one.

Tennessee +3
I actually have Tennessee winning this game outright. Carolina is BANGED up. Tennessee is bad, but Carolina is worse. I have this game at 26-21 for handicapping purposes, Tennessee winning. I am not confident enough to take the ML in this game though. I like Tennessee with the points.

Detroit +3
I'm taking Detroit with the points. I think it comes close but Detroit pulls it out. Chicago is good against the rush, but Detroit is not a team that relies on its rushing attack as much as it relies on its passing attack. Suh will be a force to be reckoned with for Forte. Detroit tends to pass the ball on opponents much better than they allow, and chicago's pass D is not so hot. I am laying down a small amount of units on Detroit +3.

Baltimore -6.5 SUPER confident
This is a STEAL. Super confident in this pick folks. I have Baltimore winning by two touchdowns. Seattle is scoring 5 points less than what their opponents allow... and Baltimore is allowing 5 points less than what their opponents usually score. Baltimore is scoring 6 points more than they usually allow. Jacksonville is allowing 1 point more than what their opponents usually score. This is a perfect storm for a 27-10 victory.


I am staying away from the Sunday night football game. Vegas has this line EXACTLY where I have this line. I have no angle on it, so alas, I've got to abstain from picking a side.

So here are all of my bets locked in:

Ravens -6.5 at 3 units to win 3
Detroit +3 1 unit to win 1
Tennessee +3.5 1 unit to win 1
Houston -3.5 4 units to win 4
Buffalo/Dallas under 50 3 units to win 3
Buffalo ML 2 units to win 4
Jacksonville -3 1.5 units to win 1.5
New Orleans PK 2 units to win 2
Cincinatti +4 2 units to win 2


Parlays...
Messed one up... but oh well, lets hope it hits...
Ravens -6.5, Houston first half -3, Bills first quarter ML parlay 1 unit to win 6

Cinci +3.5, Jags -3, Tennessee +3.5 1 unit to win 3

4 team teaser...
Cinci +10, Jags +3.5, Bills +11, Ravens -1 1 unit to win 2.5

6 team 10 point teaser
Cinci +13.5, Jags +7, Bills +14.5, Tennessee +13.5, New Orleans +10, Detroit +12.5 1 unit to win 3

BOL all!

[paranoyd androyd]

nice write-up stay hot gl

[realitybias]

So far so good.

Houston, my biggest play of the week, is winning handily.
Saints are winning, and I put 2 units on them.
Titans are winning.
My two teasers are in danger because I put way too much stock in the bills.

I still think that Jacksonville wins.

BOL!