[GHSCREW]

That's actually a really nice spot HG. Probably will go in with you

[doubledime]

7:00 Wake Forest/UNC-Greensboro u158 -105
I'm expecting a sub-75 possession pace. Greensboro really likes to slow it down and is the 7th slowest team by possesssions per game. If they can limit some possessions, the under should hit comfortably. Couple of added bonuses here: under is 8-0 in last 8 at UNC-G, kenpom has it at 147 and Massey at 149.

You beat me to it, but this is going to be a Program Play for me. Good luck to both of us.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well, win or lose we got our chips in good here. Line is down to 152.5.

BOL all!

[Louisvillekid1]

Dam missed the #

[JSchuch7]

Absolutely unbelievable cover. 73-70 w/ 5 minutes left, 10 points in the final 5 minutes.

Great call HG

[GHSCREW]

had most of my money on under 156.5. decided to double dip @152.5. dagger three.

either way thought it was over @the under 4 timeout.

good research HG

[HeeluvaGuy]

We got more than a little lucky there. But I'll take it.

ETA: 1-0 on the day

14-13 (+.26u)
Totals record is: 12-8

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'll post plays as I make them today. This is my only one for the noon games:

12:00 Detroit/Bowling Green o150 -110
Pace is everything in this one. Both teams average over 75 possessions per game, and this one may reach 80. At that pace, the lack of efficiency with these offenses shouldn’t keep this under 150. And as bad as the defenses are, this one could go way over.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1:00 UAB/Memphis o144.5 -110
Both offenses are capable of getting us some points here in part because of pace and in part because of efficiency. This one should get up to 74+ possessions, which will give us a great shot at going over 144. Only slight concern is Memphis’ free throw shooting.

[HeeluvaGuy]

4:00 Wichita St/Oklahoma o140.5
In a game that should see a minimum of 74 possessions, there are a lot of ways this can get over 140. I’m not scared away by these teams’ nice defensive numbers because neither has played much in the way of teams with offensive prowess. Note: this is a neutral site game.

[doubledime]

As always great analysis. Good luck today

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Cal Poly/Fresno St o136.5 -110
After flirting with a slightly higher tempo last season, Cal Poly is back to a more grinding style this season. Nevertheless, this is a game that should reach 70 possessions, which should be enough to get us over the 136 number. Free throws will be our friends in this one.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 Idaho/S Dak St o133.5 -110
These two played to 158 points at Idaho a couple of weeks ago. The total that time was 136. Looking for 70 possessions or so, but may not need that many.

[Louisvillekid1]

What does your numbers say about my totals pending?

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-3 on the day. Missed badly on a couple.

16-16 (-1.04u)
Totals: 14-11

[HeeluvaGuy]

5:00 N Illinois/Minnesota o136 -110
Pace should be 72+ possessions, which should be enough to get over 136. This is the kind of play I particularly like because the paces match pretty closely, both teams can get to the line, and neither relies on the three.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 UCSB/San Diego u136.5 -110
Even if this game gets to 65 possessions, which I doubt, I don't see these two offenses putting up enough points to get over 136. FWIW, San Diego's possession stats are inflated a bit due to a triple OT, 93 possession game earlier this season.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Bonus from NFL Prop land (not counting for the thread):
1:00 D. Parker (MIA) o49.5 receiving yards +125 (5Dimes)
Opposing QBs rarely throw Patrick Peterson's way, and the rest of AZ's DBs are bad to terrible in coverage.

[doubledime]

Like them both, especially NIU. Good luck today

[robcuz]

Good Luck HG

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-2 yesterday. Rough patch here. Don't see anything for today.

16-18 (-3.24u)
Totals: 14-13

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 Monmouth/Memphis o150 -110
Both teams average over 75 possessions per game. I look for this one to go over that number and possibly get up to 80. Even at 75 this one should go over 150. Both teams are pretty efficient offensively. Hey also sport pretty good defensive efficiency numbers, but neither he played against very tough offensive teams. I do worry about that Monmouth starts finals tomorrow and could be a little sloppy as a result.

[HeeluvaGuy]

10:00 UC Riverside/Santa Clara u130.5 -110
These two rank 237 and 345 in points per possession. In 13 games against D-I schools, these two have scored 60+ just 8 times. Riverside is dead last in FT rate (Santa Clara isn't far behind) and has he 2nd lowest 2-point FG % in he country. Riverside has been off for two weeks, and Santa Clara is just off of finals. Neither defense is any good, so that is a concern, but I think this one stays under 131 for us late tonight.

[doubledime]

Good luck tonight!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks DD.

2-0 on the night with a win by the hook in the late game.

18-18 (-1.24u)
Totals: 16-13

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 MTSU/Belmont u142.5 -110
The Blue Raiders are a nice defensive team, holding teams to .926 ppp (#56) and 64.2 ppg. I think they control tempo here, and we see a 65-67 possession game. At that pace we should stay under 143. In addition to the stats, other factors I like are the long layoffs for both teams (6 and 8 days). Added bonus is that Belmont's last day of finals is today.

[mahncpa]

deleted

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-1 last night. Got the pace I was looking for but MTSU had its most efficient offensive night of the season with 1.23 points per possession.

18-19 (-2.34u)
Totals: 16-14

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:30 South Dakota/Portland o147 -110
I get 75+ possessions per game here, and 1 point per possession should be easily doable with these two. Both teams have been off for a bit (6 and 11 day), and this is a neutral site game, but the pace of this one should get us over147 anyway.

[doubledime]

I finally had some time to dig down on today's card and like your play. Problem is now the game is around 149. I know, I know, snooze you loose. Good luck tonight

[HeeluvaGuy]

I finally had some time to dig down on today's card and like your play. Problem is now the game is around 149. I know, I know, snooze you loose. Good luck tonight

Thanks DD. Unfortunately beating the line hasn't meant a ton lately. Hoping to see that change (fwiw, I think this line will get up to 151).

[doubledime]

Thanks DD. Unfortunately beating the line hasn't meant a ton lately. Hoping to see that change (fwiw, I think this line will get up to 151).

Still wound up giving it a "touch"

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-0 yesterday as we got the pace we wanted (77 possessions), and both teams were over 1 ppp.

19-19 (-1.34u)
Totals: 17-14

[doubledime]

1-0 yesterday as we got the pace we wanted (77 possessions), and both teams were over 1 ppp.

19-19 (-1.34u)
Totals: 17-14

[HeeluvaGuy]

Barring any line moves, I only have one game that I'm looking at right now, and it's a 10:00 game. Weird, but it happens sometimes.