1. #1
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    JayOne's NBA picks - Unconventional system but worth a look

    All,

    First of all thank you for opening this page and giving it a read.

    It has been a few years since I have gotten on this website. I was a bit embarrassed to come back - I previously tried to post picks and failed miserably after a few days - I chose teams off feel and ultimately my picks fell apart and I couldn't keep up with a consistent thread. However, after spending time elsewhere I have determined this is one of the best online basketball communities to be a part of.

    As a student of the game my entire life I have been actively researching and constructing a model since 2012 to attain measurable results through intelligent and structured wagers. I plan on sharing these picks, however I will not get into what data goes into the picks.

    A little about me - I am a former collegiate baseball player turned working man and I have a great passion for baseball, my wagering career began through baseball and I have seen a great amount of success in the sport. However, I love the NBA and see it as a market which can be inefficient and taken advantage of. My baseball background has me ingrained to focus on winning percentages and moneylines - which I know is unconventional to those on here who only bet spreads or over / unders but I am telling you it is worth a try. Follow my precise picks and you will see the effects of moneylines in the NBA.

    A little about my system - I will ONLY play money lines an spreads. I do not take overs / unders. In addition, the spreads I take will MOSTLY be underdogs and the moneylines will ONLY be favorites. The time and testing has gone into building this system and I know it works, however it will slump just like any other. If it gets off to a slow start it will rebound.

    Enough about me. Let's get to the picks. Happy NBA SEASON and good luck to all !

  2. #2
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    11/19/2014

    Tonight's picks

    Dallas ML -140
    $140 to win $100

    Clippers ML -195
    $195 to win $100

    Phoenix ML -145
    $145 to win $100

    Philadelphia 76ers Spread +6
    $110 to win $100

  3. #3
    radostin.dimi
    radostin.dimi's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-11-12
    Posts: 226
    Betpoints: 43

    Good luck!

  4. #4
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    3-1 on day 1.

    Dallas ML -140
    $140 to win $100

    Clippers ML -195
    $195 to win $100

    Phoenix ML -145
    $145 to win $100


    Philadelphia 76ers Spread +6
    $110 to win $100


    Tonight: 3-1 +$190

    Overall: 3-1 +$190

  5. #5
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    11/20/2014

    back with 1 play tonight

    Tonight's Picks

    Clippers ML -160
    $160 to win $100

  6. #6
    incomeraise
    incomeraise's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-09
    Posts: 1,136
    Betpoints: 329

    Did you backtest the system for previous seasons... What was the results

  7. #7
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Quote Originally Posted by incomeraise View Post
    Did you backtest the system for previous seasons... What was the results
    Yes the system is back tested and has been constantly evolving since its inception in 2012. I am unsure of the exact results of the latest iteration but historically it is around 57%. I hate to post things like previous record and percentages because I feel the community has a tendency to latch onto those types of metrics.

  8. #8
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    1-0 last night

    Clippers ML -160
    $160 to win $100

    Overall: 4-1 +$290 (2.9u)

  9. #9
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Great day for some NBA boys. Lot of action tonight. Will be back with 6-8 plays later.

  10. #10
    incomeraise
    incomeraise's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-09
    Posts: 1,136
    Betpoints: 329

    It makes sense but I was just wondering because you are saying you do bet on Ml for favorites.. So I was more concerned in terms of units won than the actual percentage (if you bet on favorite,I don't know exactly what percentage you need to stay in the green, but I know it will be more than 50%depending on the line and how often you play them)

  11. #11
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Quote Originally Posted by incomeraise View Post
    It makes sense but I was just wondering because you are saying you do bet on Ml for favorites.. So I was more concerned in terms of units won than the actual percentage (if you bet on favorite,I don't know exactly what percentage you need to stay in the green, but I know it will be more than 50%depending on the line and how often you play them)

    I completely understand and was going to address this when I said 57% because it can be very misleading showing percentages with moneylines to people who are very concerned with spreads and overs / unders which are all priced around -110.

    I think that I can provide a consistent return of nearly 1 unit to every 10 plays, and that is moneyline adjusted so it is roughly 90 plays into the season and I am up ~9u (or $900 in my case). That said, I am just answering the question at hand. I do not want to make claims that other readers hold me accountable to. This is not recorded success on this website, it is recorded offline, my record is 4-1 and +2.9u since posting here.

  12. #12
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    To clarify, those stats are always betting to win 1u each game.

    And to put in perspective, if you were 51-39 through 90 plays (57%) always taking spreads 1.1u to win 1u per game, you would be up +8.1u

    so comparable results per play when looking at the percentages

  13. #13
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    11/21/2014

    Tonight's picks

    Cleveland ML -122
    $122 to win $100

    Minnesota Spread +10
    $110 to win $100

    New Orleans ML -140
    $140 to win $100

    Few more to come closer to game time

  14. #14
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Adding:

    PHI spread +9.5
    $110 to win $100

    Charlotte ML -175
    $175 to win $100

    Lakers Spread +10.5
    $110 to win 100

  15. #15
    keel44
    Update your status
    keel44's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-01-09
    Posts: 3,363
    Betpoints: 12276

    All wrong....I've been there.

  16. #16
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    well that was ugly...took a day to get over it and back it it tomorrow

    Results from Friday. 0-6


    Cleveland ML -122
    $122 to win $100

    Minnesota Spread +10
    $110 to win $100

    New Orleans ML -140
    $140 to win $100

    PHI spread +9.5
    $110 to win $100

    Charlotte ML -175
    $175 to win $100

    Lakers Spread +10.5
    $110 to win 100

    Overall: 4-7 -$475


    Back at it tomorrow.

  17. #17
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Aright. Back to work and back on the horse.

    11/24/2014

    Orlando spread +9
    $110 to win $100

    Philadelphia spread +13
    $110 to win $100

    Phoenix spread +5
    $110 to win $100

    Indiana spread +14
    $110 to win $100

    Chicago ML -150
    $150 to win $100

  18. #18
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Back on track...

    Orlando spread +9
    $110 to win $100

    Philadelphia spread +13
    $110 to win $100

    Phoenix spread +5
    $110 to win $100

    Indiana spread +14
    $110 to win $100

    Chicago ML -150
    $150 to win $100

    4-1 on the night.


    Overall: 8-8 -$187 (-1.87u)

  19. #19
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    11/25/2014

    Washington ML -175
    $175 to win $100

    Miami spread +7
    $110 to win $100

    Milwaukee ML -150
    $150 to win $100

  20. #20
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Washington ML -175
    $175 to win $100

    Miami spread +7
    $110 to win $100


    Milwaukee ML -150
    $150 to win $100


    Overall: 9-10 -$272

  21. #21
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Tonight
    11/28/2014

    Charlotte +8.5
    $110 to win $100

    LA Clipper ML -165
    $165 to win $100

  22. #22
    Marooner
    Marooner's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-20-13
    Posts: 225
    Betpoints: 1465

    Quote Originally Posted by JayOne View Post
    Washington ML -175
    $175 to win $100

    Miami spread +7
    $110 to win $100


    Milwaukee ML -150
    $150 to win $100


    Overall: 9-10 -$272
    sorry bro, but -187 + -185= -372

  23. #23
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Quote Originally Posted by Marooner View Post
    sorry bro, but -187 + -185= -372
    honest mistake, the w/l are clearly laid out - no intention of incorrect math

  24. #24
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    2-0 night.

    Charlotte +8.5
    $110 to win $100

    LA Clipper ML -165
    $165 to win $100

    Overall: 11-10
    -$172 (-1.72u)

  25. #25
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    11/30/2014

    Boston +7.5
    $110 to win $100

    more to come later

  26. #26
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    11/30/2014

    Chicago Bulls ML -140
    $140 to win $100

    more to come later

  27. #27
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    11/30/2014

    Detroit +8
    $110 to win $100

    More to come

  28. #28
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    11/30/2014

    Memphis ML -165
    $165 to win 100

    Heat ML -160
    $160 to win $100

  29. #29
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    3-2 tonight

    Boston +7.5
    $110 to win $100


    Chicago Bulls ML -140
    $140 to win $100

    Detroit +8
    $110 to win $100


    Memphis ML -165
    $165 to win 100

    Heat ML -160
    $160 to win $100

    Overall: 14-12 -$92 (-0.92u)

  30. #30
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    12/1/2014

    Philadelphia +11.5
    $110 to win 100

    Denver ML -140
    $140 to win $100

  31. #31
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    2-0 last night. Another positive night, and finally fully recovered from that disaster of a night last week.

    Philadelphia +11.5
    $110 to win 100

    Denver ML -140
    $140 to win $100

    Overall: 16-12 +$108 (+1.08u)

  32. #32
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Looking for a big night. Need the road teams to come out firing.

    12/2/2014

    Brooklyn -1
    $110 to win $100

    OKC ML -155
    $155 to win $100

    Portland ML -145
    $145 to win $100

    Orlando +11.5
    $110 to win $100

  33. #33
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    Another winning night in the books. 3-1.

    Brooklyn -1
    $110 to win $100

    OKC ML -155
    $155 to win $100


    Portland ML -145
    $145 to win $100

    Orlando +11.5
    $110 to win $100

    Overall: 19-13 +$253 (+2.53u)

  34. #34
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    12/3/2014

    Orlando +15
    $110 to win $100

  35. #35
    JayOne
    JayOne's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-13
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 452

    adding:

    Toronto ML -185
    $185 to win $100

123 Last
Top