1 - DIVING ROD - Watch out for this horse, here is a horse that I am interested to see what the post time odds are going to be. Coming off an underrated 2nd place finish in the Sam F Davis where he finished 2nd to Ocean Knight by a neck and was simply flying late and finished gamely. The move to the dirt looks like it was the right move and this is a horse that could easily improve enough to win here. His pedigree figure (+3 HBD pedigree figure) makes me think he can handle the distance and the surface at Gulfstream and he has the tactical speed to make a good move and win from just off the leaders. There is a chance this horse bounces back down to his prior records, but these young horses are capable of showing up finally and keeping form.
2 - OCEAN KNIGHT - Undefeated in two starts including an impressive win in the Sam F Davis over this same track this colt will likely be one of the favorites come post time. His pedigree (+1 HBD Pedigree Figure) suggests he will be able to handle the distance, which he has already shown by finishing strong in the Sam F Davis back at the end of January. He has ran two identical speed figures in his only two starts and a similar race will likely be good enough to be close here.
3 - CARPE DIEM - The likely post time favorite and for good reason. The only thing this horse has done wrong was that he was forced 6 wide in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was passed by the very impressive Texas Red. He has the only 100+ Brisnet speed figure in the field as he dominated the Breeders’ Futurity back in October. He is making his 3-year old debut and will be making his first start in more than 4 months, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern as a return to form isn’t farfetched. We have a solid +6 HBD pedigree rating, but this is a horse that has already shown the ability to race well at this distance so that is no surprise. Value will be the only real question surrounding this horse on Saturday.
4 - AMI’S FLATTER - Here is a horse that I was betting against in the Sam F Davis at the end of January. His 2nd place finish on this track in the MuchoMachoMan 100k back on January 3rd, was simply an unimpressive 2nd to BlueGrass Singer. He ran a quick first two splits and simply saved a ton of ground and moved into an insane pace set by the leaders. Moving past horses down the stretch while only producing a late speed figure of 87 isn’t something to be proud of. He is adding first time blinkers which will likely move some money his way, but this is one that I am going to stay away from.
5 - MY JOHNNY BE GOOD - This colt is another Sam F Davis runner who failed to show up in that race finishing a distant back third. His penultimate start was a very impressive 14 length win in a 6f race back in December. The Sam F Davis produced fairly slow fractions and there really wasn’t any excuse for the weakening he showed coming down the stretch. His pedigree suggests that this distance may be a problem (-6 HBD pedigree rating) and he may be more suited for 6 or 7 furlongs.
6 - SOUPER COLOSSAL - This is basically an undefeated colt his only loss was a 7th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he stumbled along the straight away, had to make a really early move to get up front where he liked it and then simply had nothing left coming home after an insanely fast pace set by the leaders. My only concern is that he hasn’t seemed to have beaten anyone of worth. I do like the fact he decided to come back off layoff to a quick 5f turf race and dominated I what was essentially a paid workout here at Gulfstream. I think we are worth a bet here, but he needs to show more if he wants to beat Carpe Diem.
7 - GREAT STUFF - Always makes me wonder when a horse who hasn’t found the winners circle makes a start like this in a graded stakes race against much better competition. Again we have some pedigree questions with the distance (-2 HBD Pedigree Rating), but there is more to this horse than shows in his record. In his three losses he has never finished out of the money and has simply never had even an OK trip. His last two races forced him 5 wide into the turn and yet he was still able to gobble up foes coming down the stretch. In his debut he was forced 6 wide and again was able to move up coming down the stretch. He has faced some quality competition in his short time as well, including losses to Lieutenant Colonel and Khozan who are both high quality horses on the derby trail as well. This is a horse that could produce a price and may show us something we haven’t seen yet.
8 - MOONLIGHT BANDIT - Someone please tell me why this horse is in this field? I just don’t’ see him belonging. He has 1 win in four starts and granted that was a mile long race at Churchill against what looks to be a C+ field. His other races were simply horrible. He didn’t show up in the Remsen and finished 11th with absolutely nothing down the stretch. His pedigree number is horrible (-2) but it suggests that he can’t handle this distance and he has already shown that to be the case. It would take a huge step up to be close here.
9 - DANZIG MOON - Coming off an impressive Maiden 45k win here at Gulfstream where he pulled away handily and won by almost 5 lengths earlier this month. He has likely found his form and could improve coming 2nd off a layoff. It wouldn’t take a huge jump in form to compete here from that maiden breaking win. His pedigree figure is a +1 which suggests he can handle the extra sixteenth. He has been working out well as well and could produce a nice number if he is able to keep moving forward.
Overall -
There is no denying this is CARPE DIEM’s race to lose, but there are some interesting horses that could make a name for themselves here in this one. This field is far from as soft as the Gotham field being ran up north. Both OCEAN KNIGHT and DIVINING ROD are interesting horses that don’t need a huge jump to run with Carpe and both will likely have decent prices considering how likely Carpe Diem is to take a great deal of the money. Two other horses that I will be looking to play here if the price is right are DANZING MOON and GREAT STUFF who have some serious potential and we could see their coming out party.
Hey, just wanted to say thanks for posting the software pics, Im mostly accustomed to Brisnet but always interesting to see different products. i do like the pace projections.
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Tampa Bay Derby - Saturday 03/07
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