Originally Posted by
mikemca
Big card at Tampa Bay Saturday
Race 1
Maybe 9-Pallium Prize 9-2 can wire the field. Tends to hit a wall and let 1 horse pass him but gets a jock upgrade. Otherwise 5-Taipan's Advantage 5-2 will be tough on the drop for the Jamie-ness-ish G Bennett.
Race 2
Could go a few different ways against the favorite. 4-Empire Image 5-1 was supposed to win last race before a debacle at the gate caused jock to lose irons and was eased. As with the first race should be the speed which usually does well vs cheap horses who don't pass one another. Another option is firster 12-Nightbar 6-1 . L Rivelli has long been one of the best with his horses on debut. Works aren't encouraging but could be a class or two below his maiden claiming level and the far outside post is a plus. The last horse 9-King James Court 10-1 takes a leap of faith. His best race was his very first and now makes start #4 once again fresh. Also gets the 1st lasix/ Blinkers On makeover. Price could dictate who to play in the WIN pool depending on where they fall opposed to their ML. A 4-9-12 ex bx should also pay nice.
Race 3
Looking at the race you have to think WTF is 7-Mr Jordan 3-2 doing here. He towers over the field and comes out of much tougher races. The last of which was a solid 2nd place. Very suspicious. The obvious contrarian play imo is 5-Bent On Bourbon 3-1 with Castellano up for E Kenneally . Javier has won both times he rode the horse. Including a 3 length romp in the G3 Iowa Derby. Sports 3 wins from 6 starts and comes fresh off a break after something looks to have went wrong last start in the WV Derby. The price could end up being 4-This Boy's Sharp 10-1 for the aformentioned G Bennett.
Race 4
With Castellano and Johnny V in town to ride there should be value finding someone else to oppose their overbet mounts. Castellano rides Wildcat Kelli for D Ryan as the fave. I used to be addicted to 1st and 2nd time starters from Wildcat Heir but the public has long since caught on and now it's no secret. Plus D Ryan isn't all that great with first off a trainer change. You could also argue a big dip should be predicted for the horse because he gets her from Hollendorfer. Not many can improve a horse from him or even stay on par. Johnny V rides 1ster 8-Sense Of Beauty 4-1 for Pletcher. I'll assume she gets bet heavily due to maybe the best trainer on the planet with young horses. If this horse was any good though wouldn't she be debuting at Gulfstream? 9-She's Lovely 7-2 looks like she bounced out of her debut race kicking down the stall in the AM to get back at it for start #2 with two bullet works over the track. Proctor not very good with firsters and this one was bet down to 5-2 in a field of 11 where she kind of ran around the track and then made up a little ground late . Something that bodes well with the extra furlong she gets today. Proctor also much better 2nd out. Could see better than the ML if the other 2 draw all the attention.
Race 5
Pletcher sends the 2 faves in the Sam F Davis with Javi and Johnny V riding. This may be his weakest crop of 3 year olds in a long time and these two are among them. Pletcher usually dominates at FG and Destin was no threat there in the LeComte. Gettysburg is fresh off a maiden win at GP. 5-Rafting 7-2 has a lot of positive attributes. If it wasn't for the huge discrepancy in price between him and 7-Awesome Slate 15-1 , I'd be on him. Think Lynch had this race in mind for a while. Brings him 2nd off a break going sprint to route and switches to Leparoux. Not that big a fan of Lep but that's a big upgrade over Serpa. Gets the best post to break from too.
Race 6
9-Susie's Baby 6-1 gets my vote. Again with a positive jock switch and a little extra ground after closing late in last race. Really hard to ignore 15-1 on 5-Mata Mua with Castellano riding for Shug on the turf. I dunno could go with the 5.
Race 7
Surprise , another race where the Javi and Johnny ride the faves. The fave JV rides for Pletcher coming off a break. I'll go to 2-Flashy Kyem 6-1. Has just as good figs and recency the other 2 don't.
Race 8
This short field is stacked. A few look like they are just here to get their season started including BC Mile winner Tepin. Don't think any of the 5,4, or 3 are fully cranked for this. Is their C game good enough is the question. The horses that look like they are in the middle of their cycle are 2-Partisan Politics 5-1 and 6-Bureau de Change 10-1. I'm a big fan of trainer Lynch in turf routes. He is under rated and very good. He runs the 6.
Race 9
You're not getting 6-1 on Holders Season so plan accordingly. We haven't seen close to the bottom of 3-Weep No More 12-1. She has finished up good in both races and appears a cut below on paper. With a likely fast pace and 3rd start improvement could surprise at a big price.
Race 10
I think 3-A Lot 10-1 just needs to get a head in front earlier to get his best. Form is hidden by his last couple starts where he gave away a lot of ground covering up to very good efforts. Should be able to avoid that from post 3 with the two horses inside likely to take back.
Race 11
8-Oxford Street 12-1 has been sitting on a big race for a few races now but unfortunately has been trying to close into some slolw paces. Red Rose Cat likely ensures a solid if not fast pace for the 8 to finally put it together.
Race 12
Might as well go out with a bang and try 2-Wilhelmina 20-1. 7f is perfect with a decent pace. Jockey M Cruz was all the rage in Florida just a year or two ago. Tearing it up at Calder. No idea what happened but he doesn't seem to be getting the prime mounts he did not to long ago.
Gulfstream
Race 9
11-Souperfast 20-1
Race 11
9-Lakota Warrior 10-1
Race 12
10-Abbott 10-1
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