[harthebar]

PICK 4

May. 16, 2015 04:05 PM 46C0B45CFBA0 Pimlico 10 $0.50 P4 4,5,9 / 3,4,5,6 / 4,11,12 / 1,8 $36.00 Pending

[cbiscuit]

Here's a bomb worth trying in the Dixie.... Cage Fighter about 25-1... I'll put a few on him but I need Birds or Arpieka for lil P6

Good luck guys

[mikemca]

Wife hit 50 cent super for almost 1k playing sons bday....2nd time she has done that but not even close to the other one which was 4k

[mikemca]

I told her Tale Of Verve had no chance


I'll blame it on sloppy track

[harthebar]

Thats the way its done.....those bday numbers nice

wife hit 50 cent super for almost 1k playing sons bday....2nd time she has done that but not even close to the other one which was 4k

[Heppy10]

I had across on the 5 but i dont play the exacta how dumb am i?

[harthebar]

So do we see a triple crown winner this year

[harthebar]

i had across on the 5 but i dont play the exacta how dumb am i?

for the one's that did'nt win nothing ...you look smart.....

[Heppy10]

Belmont race 2
#2 J C's Not Brown

[harthebar]

BELMONT STAKES - ODDS TO WIN - May 22
MAY 22 - 11:00 AM HORSE RACING - BELMONT STAKES - ODDS TO WIN
94001 ALL BETS ACTION
94002 AMERICAN PHAROAH -225
94003 FROSTED +400
94004 MATERIALITY +400
94005 CARPE DIEM +800
94006 KEEN ICE +1000
94007 MADEFROMLUCKY +1200
94008 MUBTAAHIJ +1400
94009 FRAMMENTO +1500
94010 CONQUEST CURLINATE +2500
94011 TALE OF VERVE +2500

[harthebar]

belmont
Mr Rosenthal 5th
Quimet belmont race 7

[harthebar]

Eastern Atlantic is scheduled to run on 5/23/2015 in Race 1 at Woodbine

[cbiscuit]

Bel R6 Lets go against the fav here with a ML 10-1 and a 30-1. May not get those odds but thinking at least 8-1 & 20-1 so not bad.

#2 Lakeview Lady has a race last year at Bel that can get it done and she's posting inside which should help

#5 Barrier to Entry 10-1 I think this one could wire field even with alot of early speed to fend off. Jock should now realize that he does not need to Q-horse out of gate


Doing exacta box with 2,5,11.3

$.10 supybox 1,2,5,3,11

Woodbine R8 the Nassau - a little WPS on Sky Treasure

[Buckandadime]

Delaware R 9 #1 (Coupled horses)

[chitowncraig]

Bel R6 Lets go against the fav here with a ML 10-1 and a 30-1. May not get those odds but thinking at least 8-1 & 20-1 so not bad.

#2 Lakeview Lady has a race last year at Bel that can get it done and she's posting inside which should help

#5 Barrier to Entry 10-1 I think this one could wire field even with alot of early speed to fend off. Jock should now realize that he does not need to Q-horse out of gate


Doing exacta box with 2,5,11.3

$.10 supybox 1,2,5,3,11

Woodbine R8 the Nassau - a little WPS on Sky Treasure

Dead on with sky treasure! Thanks!

[harthebar]

?????????????????

[harthebar]

[Winner 21.60QUOTE=harthebar;24044973]Eastern Atlantic is scheduled to run on 5/23/2015 in Race 1 at Woodbine[/QUOTE]

[cbiscuit]

Dead on with sky treasure! Thanks!

Glad you caught it chitown 40-15-10 across. Too bad the bel race did not go as hoped...that even money fav held up without a serious challenge on the lead, not sure why but he ran strong regardless. We'll try to find one for tmrw, as a rule I dont play on SUndays

[cbiscuit]

Bel R5 exbox 2,3,8

Bel R6 WPS #7 Giant fox Major jockey upgrade tho trainer more dirt inclined... hard to figure pace in this one but shoud not be too fast and that should benefit this one who can grind it out late

[cbiscuit]

Why I even bother on Sundays I'll never know. At best I score 10% of the time, fcknghorses!

[mikemca]

BELMONT STAKES - ODDS TO WIN - May 22
MAY 22 - 11:00 AM HORSE RACING - BELMONT STAKES - ODDS TO WIN
94001 ALL BETS ACTION
94002 AMERICAN PHAROAH -225
94003 FROSTED +400
94004 MATERIALITY +400
94005 CARPE DIEM +800
94006 KEEN ICE +1000
94007 MADEFROMLUCKY +1200
94008 MUBTAAHIJ +1400
94009 FRAMMENTO +1500
94010 CONQUEST CURLINATE +2500
94011 TALE OF VERVE +2500

Think conquest curlinate out runs his odds...they had this race in mind for a while

[TonyP]

conquest curlinate is scratched

[cbiscuit]

Penn Natl R3 WPS 2 Street Babe add exbox 2,5.11

SA Californian ex box 1,8

[mikemca]

Friday's card at Belmont is out ... No morning lines or post positions yet but here are some early thoughts

Race 1
Been Here Before for McLaughlin/I Ortiz might be as low as 3rd or 4th choice if going by figures and most don't use pace figs which make the slowish looking speed figures look a lot better. Expect a big effort and would be my play if maybe 3-1 or more.

Two Taps for Sheriffs/ V Espinoza figures to get some play due to connections and Sherriffs excellent sprint to route and with horses who won their maiden last start. I'll look to play against this one if she takes money. On the other hand if she gets dismissed to something like 6 or 8-1 I could use.

Lady Serena figures to go favored for C Brown/ J Castellano and for good reason. Trainer and Jock are one of best in America together and Brown is out of this world with all relevant angles. Plus as a 1/2 to Noble Tune and Honor Code the future is very bright. Hard to leave off any ticket.

The other contenders Mei Ling goes first time Pletcher but takes over from Mike Hushion who is no slouch and Streethomealabama who has the fastest recent race in the field. Both have the maturity edge too as 4 year olds taking on 3 year olds.

Should be a tough ML to make in a very good race to start the card

Race 2
I guess Indian Brut will be among/if not the favorite but will gladly look for someone else as he has lost his last 3 races at 4/5 , 4/5 , and 6/5.

The most interesting alternative is Speightster who crushed a field of maidens at Keeneland in his only start. Mott like Sheriffs is very good at spotting them off their maiden win . A large percentage of horses will make their biggest ability jump in their 2nd career start and if that happens with this horse look out.

Plenty of other horses in this field but these are the main 2 imo. Maybe Energetico but he hasn't quite been up to this level. We'll see what the ML looks like before making any firm opinions.

Race 3
Looks like a very even field for the Jersey Girl Stakes. Pletcher has Enchantress , McLaughlin has Cavorting who was 2/1 in a Grade 1 , Baffert has Enchanting Lady and Baffert doesn't play around with horses he decides to bring all the way to NY. Have to think his runner is ready to go forward. The one I think could fly below the radar is Noble And A Beauty for Violette/ J Ortiz who chased a crazy fast pace in the Grade 2 Gazelle at 1 1/8 miles. Ran better and better and better in three sprints before that. Even though Violette is just so so at route to sprint , could be very strong contender off last sprint race.

Race 4
The first 2 year old stake at Belmont of the season (I Think) is up Tremont Stakes. Goes without saying that Wesley Ward could probably wins this every year as he did last year by 6 lengths with Bessie's Boy. He sends out 2 in Banree and Moment is right. They aren't the fastest in the race though. That distinction goes to Cocked And Loaded for Larry Rivelli who is an elite 2 year old trainer himself. And this looks like maybe a private purchase or maybe the owners just transferred him to Rivelli. Point being the trainer Rivelli takes over for Hancock is not an elite trainer. So this horse won very fast in only start on his own. If Rivelli improves him the other 9 horses are going to be in his rear view . Of course Pletcher has a promising juvy in here and could be top pick if Ward's take all the money. Uncle Vinny won his debut at 1/9 and pace figs say he could run much much faster if needed this race. Could play against the Ward's all together in exacta pool with Cocked And Loaded , Uncle Vinny , and Cat Tree. Who goes for Kobiskie , another elite 2 year old trainer.

Race 5
I'm guessing Indian Trail is going to be mighty tough to beat for Pletcher who probably put him here to show off Uncle Mo's brother on Belmont weekend. Comes in with bullet works 2 of last 3 . An alternative would be To Dare turning back after a couple of routes. This is only his 4th start and 2nd off bench. Career debut was only sprint and was at this course/distance .Best race he has run figurewise too.

Race 6
Finally get to the first turf race on the card which is rare for NYRA to not have one or two in the first 5 races. Might as well not even run this one and just hand the trophy to Chocolatier with Javi and Chad Brown. Already owns the best last race fig in winning US debut last out , gets 2nd time lasix ,pace figs say will run faster here , and goes 2nd off layoff which is usually a big improvement race especially for Brown. Could be a chalky double with the Pletcher last race and then this one. If I was only singling one it would be Chocolatier though as you never know with firsters , even if it is Pletcher.

Race 7
Great race , full gate of 14 for this 1 mile turf MSW. Of course the two Chad Brown's , two McLaughlin's , and Shug McGaughey figure to be the main contenders but there may be a diamond in this rough race. Need to look into the field more.

Race 8
The Grade 2 True North has a nice field with Dads Caps the likely fave coming off his Grade 1 win in the Carter. That was 7f though and this is 6f where Dads Caps has failed in last (9?) races , all were stakes I think. His Carter win was the 2nd straight year he won that so maybe he just likes 7f better , maybe he likes Aqueduct better but it's odd in his last 9 6f stakes races he has finished 2nd 7 times. Before you key him underneath in 2nd for exacta this race was 1 of the 2 he didn't finish 2nd. He finished 5th beaten almost 12 lengths coming off the same impressive Carter win in 2014. I much prefer Rudy Rod's other horse Eastwood who is somewhat of a 6f specialist. Think it's between Eastwood and Pletcher's Rock Fall.

Race 9
Another race I need to look deeper into. Clearly Stephanie's Kitten is the best horse in this field but the back to back layoff lines are concerning. At first glance I'd go with Eastern Belle for G Motion 3rd off layoff and possibly first time she has ever saw firm turf in 9 starts if the rain stays away.

Race 10
Only 1 or 2 of these 2 mile races you/I will handicap all year.More if you play or are from Europe. Everything goes out the window , speed/pace figs , form , trainer stats, It's all figuring out who can run that 15th and 16th furlong fastest. Unitarian crushed several of these horses at this same 2 mile distance on turf over the winter at Gulfstream. We could definitely see Unitarian , Arctic North , Reflecting Trifecta once again. Dynamic Sky is the interesting newcomer imo. Looks like he can run forever and was a neck away from winning a Grade 2 a couple starts back.


This is just a once over . I could change my mind on everything by Friday.

[mikemca]

Some crazy shyt going on this Belmont meet between the big 3 of Pletcher , McLaughlin , and C Brown

Pletcher has 19 winners from 39 starters for a 49% strike rate!!!

C Brown a little unlucky with only 15 winners from 53 starters (28%) considering his 23 other runners that hit the board but didn't win , that's 38 of 53 ITM 72%.

McLaughlin 10 for 29 winners for a solid 34%.

Combined they're 87 for 121 ITM or about 72%

Break it down even further to just dirt races and it gets even more absurd where they're 44 for 54 ITM winning at about 44% with Chad Brown 12 for 14 or 86% and Pletcher 20 for 23 or 87%.

It used to be turf was the place to play against Pletcher but he seems to have figured that out 6 for 16 (38%) - 11/16 ITM 69% which kind of looks lame considering the numbers on dirt. That just shows how unreal these guys have been.

Mclaughlin 25% and 56% ...C Brown 28% and 67% on turf

[Madison]

Thanks again Mike! Much appreciated for a novice like me.

[mikemca]

Belmont

Race 1
5-Been Here Before 6-1
3-Mei Ling 8-1
6-Lady Serena 2-1
1-Streethomealabama 12-1
Race 2
9-Mr. Romance 15-1
3-Speightster 5-2
6-Indian Brut 5-1
7-Joking 12-1
Race 3
1-Noble And A Beauty 8-1
4-Enchantress 4-1
2-Coco's Wildcat 10-1
Race 4
1-Cocked And Loaded 8-1
7-Uncle Vinny 5-2
3-Swipe 12-1
Race 5
12-Apostrophe 12-1
6-Indian Trail 7-2
2-Blame It On Vino 15-1
Race 6
4-Chocolatier 3-1
7-Fade To Black 10-1
8-Munirah 15-1
Race 7
8-The Catmancan 12-1
9-Fire Away 20-1
2-Hard To Want 20-1
10-Arghad 12-1
Race 8
6-Eastwood 10-1
5-Dads Caps 4-1
2-Stallwalkin' Dude 5-1
Race 9
6-Beauty Parlor 8-1
5-Eastern Belle 10-1
1A-Stephanie's Kitten 3-5
Race 10
8-Morning Calm 10-1



If the course is less than firm it changes a few things.Especially in the 10th where I would use 3 other horses.Would bump up Innovation Economy significantly. Hopefully it's not the Pletcher and Brown show all day or at least let me beat him in the 7th and I'll be content.

glgl

[Magnolia Slim]

Thanks for posting, Mike..

[mikemca]

tough day for me with a couple 15-1+ horses hitting the exacta but I failed to pair them up


try again tomorrow

[cbiscuit]

Belmont Pk R2 #5 Gridley Here WPS Doubt if he'll be ML 15-1 but hope for 10-1+... Rosario 2 for 2 with him last year at Bel, don't feel like favs outclass him. For fun also trying $2 exacta 5-3

[mikemca]

Saturday

Belmont

Race 1
The first 3 races on the card all have very tough favorites in Stanford,Wisecracker, and Competitive Edge so I'll just throw out a price horse to throw in or try w/p.Donworth/Stanford....Stanford/Donworth...This is a really shytty race to open a Belmont Stakes card with a 5 horse field. I guess if you are to make a play against these 2 it would be 4-Nonna's Boy 6-1 stretching out first time with speed. The scenario being he just runs everyone off their feet and has enough to last. It is a bonus that 1 1/16 mile races at Belmont are only 1 turn and 6-1 isn't too shabby.

4-Nonna's Boy 6-1

Race 2
If Japan runs well in race 1 it would bump 2-Wisecracker's 2-1 stock way up. Especially if Japan wins. Otherwise it's second verse same as the first with another Pletcher at a price 7-Tommy Macho 8-1 stretching out to route first time just like Nonna's Boy. Sure this one has been coming off the pace sprinting but stretching out should have enough speed and Javi will use it if it presents itself. Would use 4-Tiz Shea D 3-1 of the 2 faves as he is by far the classiest horse in here dropping out of 3 straight graded stakes to take on a bunch of horses that just broke their maiden. Plus K McLaughlin is on fire and while I may be playing with fire going against him he is bound to be way overbet , especially after hitting twice again on Friday.Last I have no idea how Gold Shield is 4-1 but 5-Gridley Here is 15-1.

7-Tommy Macho 8-1

Race 3
Not many ways to go in the 3rd and the opposite of race 2 happens here with the Pletcher/Competitive Edge probably taking all the money and the McLaughlin/Classy Class 12-1 a nice price. He finally gets back to sprinting after 5 straight routes(4 graded stakes). His only sprint race was his career debut on this track where he threw a very very fast figure for a 2 year old 1ster. With all the hype Competitive Edge has gotten it is a little bit odd the path Pletcher has taken since winning the G1 Hopeful. Maybe he doesn't think as much of him as the public does.

6-Classy Class 12-1

Race 4
Some question marks with the two favorites as Mosler may want further than this and it's usually a last ditch effort when you decide your million dollar buy is a turf sprinter.Plus he draws 13 . As for Power Alert this race was an audible as they originally wanted to run at Evangeline last week in a turf sprint that he would have towered over but steady rain changed their plans.The opposite of the other fave he drew 1 in a race filled with speed. All that speed sets up 10-Channel Marker 20-1 who oddly has never ran this distance despite closing with fury about 10 times at 5 and 5 1/2 furlongs.

10-Channel Marker 20-1

Race 5
On last year's form Untapable is 2-5 vs this field but she hasn't ran anywhere near those races in her two starts back this year. While she seems to be a bit off , 2-Wedding Toast 4-1 couldn't be doing any better.

2-Wedding Toast 4-1
5-Princess Violet 8-1
1-Rosalind 12-1

[mikemca]

Couple changes...Will just skip race 1 as it sucks

Exacta boxes except 2nd 3rd and 6th and also maybe win bets in 4,7,9,10,11 depending on prices

Race 2
7-Tommy Macho 8-1
Race 3
6-Classy Class 12-1
Race 4
10-Channel Marker 20-1
8-Helwan 6-1
6-Something Extra 5-1
Race 5
2-Wedding Toast 4-1
5-Princess Violet 8-1
1-Rosalind 12-1
Race 6
8-V.E. Day 6-1(key)
1/1A Entry 5-1(key)
over
7-Ever Rider 15-1
9-Neck n' Neck 10-1
12-Carey Street 15-1
in ex an tri
Race 7
10-Light The City 12-1
8-Shook Up 7-2
6-Curalina 10-1
Race 8
6-Filimbi 6-1
8-Ball Dancing 3-1
10-Photo Call 12-1
1-Lady Lara 12-1
Race 9
5-Tamarkuz 10-1
6-Wicked Strong 6-1
4-Tonalist 5-2
Race 10
6-Legendary 30-1
9-Magic Artist 12-1
8-Biz The Nurse 15-1
7-Slumber 15-1
Race 11
7-Keen Ice 20-1
5-American Pharoah 3-5
3-Madefromlucky 12-1
6-Frosted 5-1
Race 12
10-Ocala Jim 10-1
6-Flashlight 12-1
9-Coltimus Prime 8-1
Race 13
2-Warrior's Crown 8-1
4-Life In Shambles 10-1
10-Social Inclusion 3-1

[mikemca]

I'm on the Kiaran McLaughlin train

[cbiscuit]

Belmont Pk R2 #5 Gridley Here WPS Doubt if he'll be ML 15-1 but hope for 10-1+... Rosario 2 for 2 with him last year at Bel, don't feel like favs outclass him. For fun also trying $2 exacta 5-3

nada, ran 4th, way too much ground to make up - come on Joel, need you today!

[cbiscuit]

I'm on the Kiaran McLaughlin train

I'm with you on that --- Tamarkuz? scares me in the Met Mile .
Nice hit btw - a $20 horse to start the day - good price for Pletcher/JJC