1. #1856
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    The one thing that I don't think people realize is that a trainer is a horse trainer and a horse manager. Both equally important. You can train them like Ben Jones but if you don't place them in races they can win, you are not doing the horse, owner, or anyone any good.
    Winning is a matter of placement in most cases. Put them where they can win, and they will often enough to make you look really smart.
    I'm assuming you're talking more class rather than distance and surface. .Isn't the main culprit behind horses running at too high a level for too long the fear of losing them to a claim?

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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    I'm assuming you're talking more class rather than distance and surface. .Isn't the main culprit behind horses running at too high a level for too long the fear of losing them to a claim?
    from the few horses worth of experience i have under my belt, it wasnt the fear of losing a horse to a claim was the problem-it was delusional evaluation of where the horses could be truly competitive...

    as an example, i showed STR a brief grainy clip of a breeze stretch run and he figured they would be competitive only as 10k claimers at a small track..meanwhile our LLC manager ran the horse at belmont then saratoga 60k msw for the "purse money".. the horse was running last by 30 lengths before they finally dropped down the ladder to Laurel Park (6 months later) where the horse won 2 races at the 5k clm and 7500k mdn clm if im not mistaken.

    STR is the man and has taught me a ton -thank you sir

    sidenote- the way the horse won both races was coming from 15-17 lengths back and taking lead less than 100 yds from the wire was an incredible feeling.. I didnt win jack crap for purse money- but that didnt matter nor did it didnt matter it was at a small track...it was the greatest feeling and I have watched the replay several times. It doesnt get old

  3. #1858
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    I saw Pletcher"s filly win yesterday. She ran well and longer should be better. That said, did he have a horse or two in a MSW fillies around 6/18 at Belmont? If so, where was she, and did she win that day. A lot of if's but if so, he had to have been very high on that one if he sent this one down to Monmouth. Talk about an elite stable of quality young horses year in and year out. Unreal !

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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    I'm assuming you're talking more class rather than distance and surface. .Isn't the main culprit behind horses running at too high a level for too long the fear of losing them to a claim?
    Well, all three but yes, it does start with class.

    The other two are almost just as important though in most but not all cases. Depends on the horse.

  5. #1860
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    Quote Originally Posted by chaka View Post
    from the few horses worth of experience i have under my belt, it wasnt the fear of losing a horse to a claim was the problem-it was delusional evaluation of where the horses could be truly competitive...

    as an example, i showed STR a brief grainy clip of a breeze stretch run and he figured they would be competitive only as 10k claimers at a small track..meanwhile our LLC manager ran the horse at belmont then saratoga 60k msw for the "purse money".. the horse was running last by 30 lengths before they finally dropped down the ladder to Laurel Park (6 months later) where the horse won 2 races at the 5k clm and 7500k mdn clm if im not mistaken.

    STR is the man and has taught me a ton -thank you sir

    sidenote- the way the horse won both races was coming from 15-17 lengths back and taking lead less than 100 yds from the wire was an incredible feeling.. I didnt win jack crap for purse money- but that didnt matter nor did it didnt matter it was at a small track...it was the greatest feeling and I have watched the replay several times. It doesnt get old
    Anytime chaka !

    Yes, I could see clearly in that grainy clip that she had limited ability.

    That's probably because she reminded me of what most of my babies looked like going a 1/4 and 3/8th's. Lol.

    I had a lot of experience with those types. I did have some good ones though. Notice I said "some".

  6. #1861
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    I saw Pletcher"s filly win yesterday. She ran well and longer should be better. That said, did he have a horse or two in a MSW fillies around 6/18 at Belmont? If so, where was she, and did she win that day. A lot of if's but if so, he had to have been very high on that one if he sent this one down to Monmouth. Talk about an elite stable of quality young horses year in and year out. Unreal !

    understand the logic there and I'm embarrassed to say I have no idea how to go back a month for results or entries ..for me it's a week tops..good being todd or chad for that matter

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    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    understand the logic there and I'm embarrassed to say I have no idea how to go back a month for results or entries ..for me it's a week tops..good being todd or chad for that matter
    Equibase.com has results going back for quite some time. Check it out if you are interested.

  8. #1863
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    I saw Pletcher"s filly win yesterday. She ran well and longer should be better. That said, did he have a horse or two in a MSW fillies around 6/18 at Belmont? If so, where was she, and did she win that day. A lot of if's but if so, he had to have been very high on that one if he sent this one down to Monmouth. Talk about an elite stable of quality young horses year in and year out. Unreal !
    thanks easy rider...only open msw 2yo fillies at Belmont carded in the second half of June if I saw it right was 6/22 and pletcher's horse won that race by 5+ lengths..filly named bahama halo..that probably answers the question and he must think she's something real special

  9. #1864
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    thanks easy rider...only open msw 2yo fillies at Belmont carded in the second half of June if I saw it right was 6/22 and pletcher's horse won that race by 5+ lengths..filly named bahama halo..that probably answers the question and he must think she's something real special
    Yep. And just like that, you have the inside track on Todd's 2 year old fillies as of late June.

    Moving forward, as he runs 2 year old fillies at Saratoga, save the pp's on these two and see if workouts from future FTS have the same dates as these two winners. You won't know for sure but chances are they worked against one another along the way. That can give you a line on how close they are to those two winners as well as entry mates coupled or uncoupled as well as future Monmouth ship ins of his.

    That is one of the few times I would use works and spend any time with them. Even with that, you don't know for sure that they worked together or in different sets. But almost assuredly, they all worked in company.

  10. #1865
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    For those that have not read all my thoughts in regards to workouts, which are all in this thread , please read them before reading this answer and assuming these are my only thoughts. Be careful with workouts.

    As as for this exact question, here you go Easy.
    If any patterns would catch my eye in a positive way it would be this type of pattern and a quick gate work along with blinkers on especially if previous works were not so quick.
    This scenario suggests that the horse, especially a Firster or horse that's only run once or twice, is getting very competitive. Chances are they were in company and doing all the running without much urging from the rider. And if indeed in company , almost a certainty if a Firster , they are doing that well in hand early , suggesting they are mentally aggressive and ready to get competitive right away. They had to have finished full of run as well to produce those times.
    That horse would get a long look from me and at any decent price , even as a Firster , would be tough to not use.
    Let me know how it did if you will. Very positive work pattern. If a Firster, is it wearing blks first time? If so, and if the trainer does well with firsters , that only helps the cause that this horse is primed to run well.
    Hey STR: Yesterday at Del Mar Race #8 the #5 Martini Up went off at 19/1. At first asking he did little, but they put the shades on and he drilled 2 bullet works before the race. He finished 2nd to a firster that was drilling at 6 panels for a 5.5 F race. Thx for the info you provided as I will be looking for this angle in the future.

  11. #1866
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    Hey STR: Yesterday at Del Mar Race #8 the #5 Martini Up went off at 19/1. At first asking he did little, but they put the shades on and he drilled 2 bullet works before the race. He finished 2nd to a firster that was drilling at 6 panels for a 5.5 F race. Thx for the info you provided as I will be looking for this angle in the future.
    Any time Easy.
    This has been around forever but is not well known.
    Also, I don't usually lobby to bet to place but if ever there was a time to do so, this scenario might be it.
    Better still, boxing in an exacta with others that make sense.
    Keep me posted.

  12. #1867
    Easy-Rider 66
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    STR: Got a question on rail placement on the turf course. I guess depending on how far the rails are set it can favor speed or closers? Could you elaborate on this and how much credence do you put into that angle? Thx.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    STR: Got a question on rail placement on the turf course. I guess depending on how far the rails are set it can favor speed or closers? Could you elaborate on this and how much credence do you put into that angle? Thx.
    IMO the rail being out doesn't make enough difference to give it much consideration. But these tracks that have it waaaay off the inside , it can make it problematic for the outside horses.

    Stepping away from the question for a minute, lately, the run up has been all over the place at some tracks. I think Gulfstream has a real problem with that. I saw a race that was carded as 1 mile and a 1/16th but the run up had it much much closer to 1 mile and an 1/8th. That is terrible. The difference is HUGE. Do keep a close eye on that.

    Back to the question, I know that the rumors at the track say that the further out the rails are, the more it helps the inside but I don't think that is correct. Yes, I would agree when it is waaay out it hurts the outside horses but 24 feet or less is very little to worry about if it was me.

    Replays will help quite a bit but that can become a lot of work.

    At the end of the day, it's all about the trip the horse gets or does not get and the footing on the turf. That and watching to see if the course is freshly mowed or the grass is high. That should lend a hand in guessing prior to the race as to if it will favor speed or closers as shorter grass will most times favor speed while higher unmowed grass will favor closers. It's a rule of thumb but it is a solid one. It will also show a pattern once you start to monitor the grass height. We know that typically grass favors closers more than dirt does, but just like grading the dirt, the height of the grass can be a big factor. I would make those more my focus if possible.

    Good luck Easy.

    Thanks for checking in.

  14. #1869
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    hey str. .if you happen to see this before 3pm post great but curious about your opinion anyway..Indiana Grand 3rd race 2 year old msw 1 mile turf..horse I like had steady works from beginning of may to end of june (all 3 and 4 furlongs)..debuted on 7/1 at CD at 6f and ran a nice even sprint which I like as a primer for the stretch.. only one 4f work on July 23 since then..my guess is they probably have a lot of long gallops in him and it's not an issue..Joe Rocco riding who I thought I've heard you mention before
    ..He's having a great meet there and was aboard for the debut
    Last edited by JBEX; 08-23-16 at 08:25 AM.

  15. #1870
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    STR: A couple of questions here. Do you favor horses that come into a turf race with workouts on the turf as opposed to the dirt? It seems like a lot of training for a turf race is done on the dirt. Is there any reason for this?

    And I notice at a track Like Mountaineer with cheap claimers that the announcer says the horse is on the wrong lead a lot into the stretch. Is this because that are lower class ponies or would you put more onus on the trainer? Thx.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    hey str. .if you happen to see this before 3pm post great but curious about your opinion anyway..Indiana Grand 3rd race 2 year old msw 1 mile turf..horse I like had steady works from beginning of may to end of june (all 3 and 4 furlongs)..debuted on 7/1 at CD at 6f and ran a nice even sprint which I like as a primer for the stretch.. only one 4f work on July 23 since then..my guess is they probably have a lot of long gallops in him and it's not an issue..Joe Rocco riding who I thought I've heard you mention before
    ..He's having a great meet there and was aboard for the debut
    I think your guess is exactly right.

    Once a firster runs they usually are trained differently. Most will point forward to the next race. My guess is that the 1/2 mile work was the tail end of several 15 second 1/8ths prior to the timed workout.
    I just looked at the results. Stamina was the training emphasis no doubt. The rider is Joe Rocco Jr. I knew the family well. I rode his dad often and when Joe Jr. started with the 10 lb. bug, I named him on an entry for cheap maidens. They split the race and we won both halves. His mom was going nuts and his dad was one proud papa. Really nice young man as well as the entire family . I did lose touch with them when I left the game. Always glad to see him doing well.

  17. #1872
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    STR: A couple of questions here. Do you favor horses that come into a turf race with workouts on the turf as opposed to the dirt? It seems like a lot of training for a turf race is done on the dirt. Is there any reason for this?

    And I notice at a track Like Mountaineer with cheap claimers that the announcer says the horse is on the wrong lead a lot into the stretch. Is this because that are lower class ponies or would you put more onus on the trainer? Thx.
    Have a meeting at 9am.

    Will get to this in the afternoon Easy.

    Good questions that players need to know the answer too.

  18. #1873
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    STR: A couple of questions here. Do you favor horses that come into a turf race with workouts on the turf as opposed to the dirt? It seems like a lot of training for a turf race is done on the dirt. Is there any reason for this?

    And I notice at a track Like Mountaineer with cheap claimers that the announcer says the horse is on the wrong lead a lot into the stretch. Is this because that are lower class ponies or would you put more onus on the trainer? Thx.
    No. I don't favor one that did over one that did not. Here is why.

    In Maryland and up most of the coast , back in my day, unless you were nominated to a grass stake, you were not allowed on the turf course to train. Because of that, many trainers would nominate a horse for 50 bucks or 100.00 just to work out on the turf. I was not that guy except maybe once or twice, unless I was planning on running in that stake. So that leaves many if not all claimers out of working on the turf.
    For most horses, I did not do it because, it is easier to run on turf and if they like the footing, they like it. If they don't ,they don't. And I saw tons of horses work over it and the rider say" they loved it", in the morning only to find out they hated it come race time.

    Liking the turf is all about trusting the footing. Just like mud.That is a must. The sensitivity of the shock in the foot that the horse feels is key as well. A lot of bad footed, sore footed horses will like the turf for just the fact that it is softer and when the hoof flexes with each landing. The shock is less.

    But breeding or not, each horse needs to trust reaching out over it and while breeding gives you a higher percentage of them liking it or not, just because dad and mom liked it, doesn't automatically mean the offspring will. They probably will. But not a guarantee.


    As for switching leads:

    A trainer can try and teach a horse to switch leads but if they decide they will not, they just won't no matter how hard you try. Soreness can also be a reason but more often than not, it is just a stubborn horse that is simply not willing to do it. While most are cheap horses and breeding cheap or mediocre horses to cheap or mediocre mares will bring out the worst in most offspring, a lot of cheap mares or studs, like Light The Fuse for instance, (back in my day) probably did not switch in their racing days either. In Light The Fuses case, he simply refused to do it. Soundness was not the issue. All in his head. He could have been a damn nice horse.

    There are very fast graded stakes horses that just won't switch but they are few and far between at that level. So for the most part, lower class horses would be the answer. Also a tick lower class of rider generally and not to say that some trainers at Mountaineer are not very good, it is not a stretch to assume that the majority of trainers are not as polished as a better track, and the majority of trainers at that better track are probably not quite as on the ball as trainers at a top major track. That is somewhat unfair though because many trainers are very knowledgeable but lack the money to do it right. They know right from wrong but are restricted financially from doing it the way they might wish that they could.

    Lastly, jocks can try to make the horse switch in the stretch and if the horse is willing, that can help. But we have seen plenty of riders do that and the horse fades worse than if you just let them stay on the left lead all the way through.

    Switching leads is so frustrating because they are taught to switch in the very beginning. It's a habit that once they start it, it is hard to break it.

    One last thing. Some speed that has a relaxed lead turning for home will switch no problem. But get head and head with them or pin them inside where they are uncomfortable and they will not switch. For a customer, that is very frustrating no doubt. But if you see a horse that usually switches , gets hooked and does not and loses badly, then comes back in a softer spot where it looks like it can control the pace, that would be a solid angle to explore as long as you know that you have seen the horse switch before when clear and not bothered turning for home. You can cash a ticket now and then looking at that.
    Hope that helps.

    By the way.. You and Har are doing great with your contests. You two and several others we all know are as solid as it gets. Great to be part of a place with customers like you guys. Great job to everybody here.

  19. #1874
    Easy-Rider 66
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    ^ Thx for the good words and the detailed answer.

  20. #1875
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    ^ Thx for the good words and the detailed answer.
    Anytime Easy !

    Horse players need detailed answers.

    That's what I'm here for.

  21. #1876
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    I think your guess is exactly right.

    Once a firster runs they usually are trained differently. Most will point forward to the next race. My guess is that the 1/2 mile work was the tail end of several 15 second 1/8ths prior to the timed workout.
    I just looked at the results. Stamina was the training emphasis no doubt. The rider is Joe Rocco Jr. I knew the family well. I rode his dad often and when Joe Jr. started with the 10 lb. bug, I named him on an entry for cheap maidens. They split the race and we won both halves. His mom was going nuts and his dad was one proud papa. Really nice young man as well as the entire family . I did lose touch with them when I left the game. Always glad to see him doing well.

    horse ran a nice race and could be something decent down the road ..the stuff about the 15 second eighths is great to know (if indeed that's what happened in the works)..really explains how these horses can be legged up without showing it ..realize you've mentioned it before but reinforcement never hurts ..thanks again

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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    horse ran a nice race and could be something decent down the road ..the stuff about the 15 second eighths is great to know (if indeed that's what happened in the works)..really explains how these horses can be legged up without showing it ..realize you've mentioned it before but reinforcement never hurts ..thanks again
    Anytime JBEX.

  23. #1878
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    Hey str

    was interested in a debut horse today at saratoga that wound up coming in 9th in a 10 horse field of 2yo open msw's..the trainer is Kathy Ritvo who is based in Florida at Gulfstream..She had only one prior starter at the meet prior to this one and thought it was interesting she shipped up..the horse did have 4 works at saratoga leading up to today's race .. I wonder if she was up to look over those or another trainer did since she only ran one other here ?? The horse cost 180k kee sept yearling and by a new inexpensive sire with a 6500 stud fee..Interestingly enough the winner of the race was a horse by the same sire who cost 175 which is quite amazing..There was another later in the card by the same sire who cost 185k but don't think off the top that one did much..Anyway back to my question..I feel the experience
    and the gradual fade line she ran might set her up nicely vs specials at mth,del or lrl assuming she's not sent right back to Florida or to run at Belmont..Just seems to me that this might have been something she had on her mind sending him to saratoga..If she were to try one of the other 3 mentioned I guess the horse would be left in the care of a local trainer there ?? Realize I'm projecting a bit here but just seems like a lot to go through to run a 2yo up there
    when you only had one other runner go there over the course of the whole meet
    Last edited by JBEX; 09-04-16 at 10:19 PM.

  24. #1879
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    ^couple of other interesting notes at saratoga..the sire I was discussing above is "maclean's music"..the 3rd one that I mentioned cost 185k is actually running today in the 2nd race #2 swing and sway..Rudy has a firster in the same race #7 mini megan that he not only is trainer/owner but also the breeder ...first time I've seen that..none of this urgent stuff anyway... enjoy your holiday monday !

  25. #1880
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    Hey str

    was interested in a debut horse today at saratoga that wound up coming in 9th in a 10 horse field of 2yo open msw's..the trainer is Kathy Ritvo who is based in Florida at Gulfstream..She had only one prior starter at the meet prior to this one and thought it was interesting she shipped up..the horse did have 4 works at saratoga leading up to today's race .. I wonder if she was up to look over those or another trainer did since she only ran one other here ?? The horse cost 180k kee sept yearling and by a new inexpensive sire with a 6500 stud fee..Interestingly enough the winner of the race was a horse by the same sire who cost 175 which is quite amazing..There was another later in the card by the same sire who cost 185k but don't think off the top that one did much..Anyway back to my question..I feel the experience
    and the gradual fade line she ran might set her up nicely vs specials at mth,del or lrl assuming she's not sent right back to Florida or to run at Belmont..Just seems to me that this might have been something she had on her mind sending him to saratoga..If she were to try one of the other 3 mentioned I guess the horse would be left in the care of a local trainer there ?? Realize I'm projecting a bit here but just seems like a lot to go through to run a 2yo up there
    when you only had one other runner go there over the course of the whole meet

    I saw the chart and I think the race sets that horse up for an improved effort next out as well. I will assume the horse will add lasix and possibly blinkers. An outside post will be much better as well. Those prospects will only further the chances of a much improved second start. Racing anywhere but NY will be a several length move up as well but will probably kill any possible price. Only lost by about 7 lengths in 10 and change so IMO the horse can run some.

    Trainers that have a chance to meet and possibly pick up potential clients will make every effort to go to Saratoga in the summer. So taking two babies there makes sense. She was in all likelihood at Saratoga often enough to be there for the works. Maybe she bought some babies at the Saratoga sale as well. Check the buyers log and see if you are curious.It's another place to lure new owners.

    And, it is a place where a trainer can call it a vacation of sorts because they only have a couple of horses there and can find plenty of time to take in the place and just get away for a few days at a time for 4-6 weeks. She probably flew back on dark days to stay on top of her horses back home, probably backed off the better ones by design for a few weeks to freshen a bit for the fall, and that sort of thing.
    Yes, she had a trusted friend or an asst. trainer quality person with the horses on certain days she was gone but I doubt it was for very long at a time. All speculation of course, but this is exactly what plenty of name trainers do each year when they are lucky enough to have won some G1 high profile races and have a chance to lure new clientele.

    I would think that she felt that if things went well, those horses could have won. Nobody wants to be ninth at Saratoga . Everybody wants to win there, especially with a baby and a firster even more so. Owners see that and it carries a ton of weight at Saratoga. Plenty of evening parties to meet these people and her husband wants to meet key people in the business for Maryland racing business as well.

    Lastly, maybe the owner really wanted to run at Saratoga and money is no object. Hard to say no when they put up a buck eighty for a yearling and let you train it.

    Too me, it all adds up to making sure you follow both her firsters moving forward. She thinks a lot of both of them or she would not have run them there IMO.

  26. #1881
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    ^couple of other interesting notes at saratoga..the sire I was discussing above is "maclean's music"..the 3rd one that I mentioned cost 185k is actually running today in the 2nd race #2 swing and sway..Rudy has a firster in the same race #7 mini megan that he not only is trainer/owner but also the breeder ...first time I've seen that..none of this urgent stuff anyway... enjoy your holiday monday !
    Who is the dam of Rudy's horse? Probably a horse he owned or trained that could no longer race but he liked her or she was well bred.That is usually how a trainer ends up breeding a few. That is what happened to me back in the day.

  27. #1882
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Who is the dam of Rudy's horse? Probably a horse he owned or trained that could no longer race but he liked her or she was well bred.That is usually how a trainer ends up breeding a few. That is what happened to me back in the day.
    the dam is "court of dreams" by powerscourt who was a major grade 1 turf horse...says she had 12 starts and was a "black type placed winner" ..a foal of 2009

  28. #1883
    JBEX
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    ^^ got that from equineline app..drf probably would have more specific information..if she's only 7 might be her first or maybe 2nd foal

  29. #1884
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    ^^ got that from equineline app..drf probably would have more specific information..if she's only 7 might be her first or maybe 2nd foal
    She ran her last race for 16k NW2 and was claimed and finished 8th. Never raced again. Claimed by Levine. Probably hurt herself in that race. That was 2012. If it took several months to get her sound enough to be bred. Probably missed the 2013 breeding season but just a guess. So first foal would make sense.

    Rudy must have bought her for next to nothing . The stakes placed was a 5 horse field where she finished 3rd at Belmont in mid November.
    She was not really a talented runner by any means for reasons unknown.

  30. #1885
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    She ran her last race for 16k NW2 and was claimed and finished 8th. Never raced again. Claimed by Levine. Probably hurt herself in that race. That was 2012. If it took several months to get her sound enough to be bred. Probably missed the 2013 breeding season but just a guess. So first foal would make sense.

    Rudy must have bought her for next to nothing . The stakes placed was a 5 horse field where she finished 3rd at Belmont in mid November.
    She was not really a talented runner by any means for reasons unknown.
    has the usual slow steady works which seems to be what he does and as we've discussed means little...The sire Frost Giant is way above average with 2yo winners from starters according to my sire ratings book..just average with firsters. .they're going 7f and irad ortiz aboard ..have a hunch if he's gonna be anything it'll be on the turf down the road although there were plenty of opportunities to run him on it during the meet..Where do you get the dam info and does it tell what the progeny have done?

  31. #1886
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    has the usual slow steady works which seems to be what he does and as we've discussed means little...The sire Frost Giant is way above average with 2yo winners from starters according to my sire ratings book..just average with firsters. .they're going 7f and irad ortiz aboard ..have a hunch if he's gonna be anything it'll be on the turf down the road although there were plenty of opportunities to run him on it during the meet..Where do you get the dam info and does it tell what the progeny have done?
    Equibase. You can see the charts. Type in the name and you will find it.

  32. #1887
    trytrytry
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    str do you have any thoughts on this long shot later today at Saratoga? anything that catches your attention with the owners, being at Saratoga last day, trainer change, any shot today?


    Race 9

    this #9 Reporting Star

  33. #1888
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    str do you have any thoughts on this long shot later today at Saratoga? anything that catches your attention with the owners, being at Saratoga last day, trainer change, any shot today?


    Race 9

    this #9 Reporting Star
    I do not have a form so I am really blind trying to give any advise on this horse.

    However, I do see blinkers on and that ALWAYS gets my attention.

  34. #1889
    cutchemist42
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    Hey str, hope all is well. Just curious your thoughts on how this horse is being handled, its a horse I had been following since his first start based on a trip.

    http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...657&registry=T

    When a horse is kept in MSW for so long, who is making that decision? The horse is now going into allowance after it raced once after the maiden win in a claimer.

  35. #1890
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by cutchemist42 View Post
    Hey str, hope all is well. Just curious your thoughts on how this horse is being handled, its a horse I had been following since his first start based on a trip.

    http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...657&registry=T

    When a horse is kept in MSW for so long, who is making that decision? The horse is now going into allowance after it raced once after the maiden win in a claimer.
    When you see an owner, breeder, trainer combo, chances are you are watching people that are not as realistic about winning as others that treat the game as a pure business might be. Most times an owner, trainer, breeder team has a very low win % . It's just the way it seems to be. More times than not, they ride low % riders as well mainly because the top riders want live mounts and these types are not live that often.
    In this case, it is a six horse field for W VA state breds. That is not an ordinary allowance race in that, it is typically much cheaper a quality of horse than a straight allowance race might be. With it being a 6 horse field, there is a chance that the racing office called the trainer and asked him to enter the horse and promised a "6 only" restriction, meaning that he will only enter if the race has no more than 6 entries in it including his horse. By doing so, it insures that the horse will earn a piece of a larger purse than it would normally run for.
    In state bred races, purses can be raised with the state bred fund contribution so the purse can be actually more than it is stated to be.
    If you look at the chart of the last race of this horse you will see that the purse was 6,200 but the total payout of purse was about twice that. I don't know the WVA state bred rules but this purse could end up being many times more than that. So I guess they figure running 3rd would be like winning that nw2 race .
    Not a winning business model at all, but I used to see this all the time with homebreds that were all in the family.

    Hope that helps.

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