Originally Posted by
flsaders85
As pointed out in earlier posts, factoring for player injuries, minor leaguers, etc NEEDS to be accounted for. This is something that is also applicable for basketball and baseball. Using team based stats won't give you an edge IMO.
With this said, here's my take on a player based model for NHL that I use:
1. Learn to make your own player projections or acquire from another source. The important player stats for skaters IMO are projected shots, goals, missed shots, blocked shots. For goales, projected shots against and save %.
2. You must make some sort of prediction of a team's forwards, defense, and goalie for a given game.
3. Learn what Corsi and Fenwick are....and how those translate to actual Shots on Goal and Goals. Basically, this is what I am predicting when I simulate a game using my projected lineups and projected player stats.
4. Learn how to develop a Monte Carlo simulation or use regression analysis to develop this sort of model.
Again, this is all opinion and what I use. You'll realize when you can actually predict a game using a method similar to this, your lines will be more accurate to closing lines. Not poking fun here, but Anaheim won't be -410 over the Islanders...I actually had Anaheim as a -130 fave after Perry and Getzalf illnesses were announced.