I've read Justin 7 (I think) and seen a YouTube vid of his saying that. What about straight head to head betting? I'm not interested in beating the spread, just bet on a winner. How do you determine edge? Sorry to jump in antonyp22, just thought I'd ask too.
I'm trying a monte carlo. I know my winning percentage. I grab all the matches for which I have odds data since last April and then run that period of months, assuming I'll win at that win percentage and record the wins/loses for each odd datum (e.g $1.50). Repeat that 10,000 times, then calculate z-Score and EV for each odd datum and divide EV by 10,000. This gives a list of EV, z-score, percentage for each odds and I see if it's (EV) positive. Am I on the right track?